Top 5 plays on the board... CFB week 1... let's hear it!

VC... yea i looked into both Arizona and Kentucky last night, and they are both still gonna be no plays, most likely... if Cobb turns out to be fine for gametime i might still do Ky... but CMich has a lot going for them... they should not only win the MAC, but run away with it... line seems about right to me...

 

NCDawg... man... if i had known someone else was gonna keep track of it all, i wouldn't have put in so much work... but thanks!  when i do the next tally i will remember to add a vote for Mich! 

ice i agree about CMU, not sure why Arizona is a de facto play for so many respected cappers.  I like CMU in the game. however....CMU has a tough as hell schedule and if they could start out 0-2 and lose badly to either ASU or MSU, they will set up great to hammer in their first few MAC games. 

BAMA, RUTGERS, ILLINOIS

markosimz... we are seeing eye to eye completely on Minnesota and LSU... i agree that Minnesota is about as close to a sure thing as you can find... anybody not on that game after everything that has been said in these forums (and this thread) is gonna be punching themselves in the face around 1:30pm EST when they see the updates flashing across the screen...

Ice - when you complete the poll, can you summarize the betting case for the top 5 teams.   In essense, discuss the pros and cons based on the inputs of your string.  Honestly, even though this poll is not scientific and there are influences of other posters on the opinions of some, this little poll will probably be as accurate of an indicator as most of the major handicap advisory services out there.   I personally agree with 4 of the top 5 (I believe OU will demolish BYU, but 21 points against a ranked team on a neutral field seems a bit much).  Thanks again for setting this up and I hope you will continue the poll in weak two...

 

Hook em'

Minn -6.5

Troy 6.0

LSU - 16.5

 

Those are my top 3 right now.

Wisky(-17)  This was my top play two years ago and NIU was blowed out. Coach "B" is on the hot seat, so they must blow out this inferior team. The concenrs are the QB position and the lost of the starting safety's. Wisky just can't win this game they must win big.

 

PSU(-27)  The badger play Akron last year and should have scored 50 if it wasn't for turnovers. Penn St and Joe PA. won't be so kind. I doubt if they score againstg PSU Def. in Happy Valley.

 

OKI(-21) Oki will score 45 and the Mormon's 10. Enough said.

 

i disagree Punishner... BYU will score 10, but OU will score 52... i guess your crystal ball didn't factore in the defensive TD...

 

LongHorn... i can try to put that together... i think most people have thrown in their votes, so maybe sometime in the next week i will lock up the top 5 and break them down...

 

i also like 4 of the top 5, but the one i'm not sold on is Kentucky... OU's defense will be what turns that game into a route... Reynolds' return makes them a much different animal than they were down the stretch last year... and Stoops runs a very ball-hawking defensive approach... they take risks sometimes, but frequently those risks lead to a lot of turnovers and TDs...

as for continuing the poll in week 2... i don't know if that is a good idea...

 

Manifesto does a consensus thread that he puts a lot of work into... results will probably be similar to mine, but his has a proven record of success, and having two threads like that might just clutter up the works... plus i don't want to step on his toes or be a copy-cat... was just doing this to see what we came up with...

 

we'll see how this goes... i guess it does give some people a chance to be included who aren't included in Festo's thread...

Manifestos thread does have some legitimacy to it. To bad some of the cappers he included last year are gone. I'll be interested to see how he does in Week 1.

Kentucky -14 @ Miami, OH (3 Units)

I love Kentucky in this matchup!!! Miami, OH is breaking in a new coach and new systems. They also lose three key starters on their O-Line, as they lose their starting Tackles and Center. They also lose 2 All-MAC Linebackers, and the Defense as a whole loses 3 of its top 4 tacklers. On Special Teams, Miami, OH must replace its Kicker and Punter. Further more, this team was only 2-10 last year and I wouldn't expect much improvement in Year One under a new regime.

Meanwhile, Kentucky returns 7 O-Linemen with starting experience. Also, Kentucky will bring back a QB and RB's with experience. Expect Kentucky to pound the ball against an undersized and undermanned Miami, OH Team.

Also, Kentucky has a strong D-Line which will be able to dominate a weak and inexperienced Miami, OH Offensive Line.  While Kentucky will be inexperienced at Linebacker, they have 5 returning in Secondary with starting experience.

Kentucky also returns its Kicker and Punter and has a sizable Special Teams edge. Last Kentucky is 4-2 ATS as away favorite over the last 9 years. Expect a nice and easy cover here!

Georgia +5.5 @ Oklahoma State (4 Units)

Oklahoma State is a popular Top Ten pick in many pre-season publications. Naturally, these publications are blown away by the Offensive fireworks that this team is capable of. This team is loaded and has excellent skill position players and standouts at Tackle on the Offensive line.

However, the Defensive side of the ball is troubling. Last year, this Unit surrendered over 28 points per game. 6 starters return from last year's unit. This is my biggest concern with Oklahoma State. Also Oklahoma State must replace both Guards on the O-Linemen and have a new Center on the O-Line as well. Georgia has two future NFL Draftchoices at Defensive Tackle in Owens and Atkins and I expect this key matchup to swing in Georgia's favor. Expect Georgia's interior D-Linemen to disrupt the Oklahoma State Offense all day long.

Georgia also returns all of its O-Linemen this year and has a 5th year Senior at Quarterback. I expect QB Cox to step in and play well behind the strong O-Line and to establish a good raport with wideout AJ Green.

I expect Georgia to bounce back in a big way on the Defensive side of the ball. The Linebacker corp is solid and the Secondary should be fair. Georgia must generate a pass rush this year, which is something they couldn't do last year. However, reports from Spring and Fall are encouraging in this regard.

Georgia is 30-4 under Richt SU on the road and is 7-2 ATS as a Road Dog under Richt. Those trends are hard to ignore! Georgia is a great pick here and one of my favorites on the weekend.

Illinois -7 vs. Missouri (Neutral Field) (4 Units)

Love this game!!! Illinois should run away with this one. Missouri only returns 9 starters and a great Kicker. They are not the type of program that re-loads easilly either.

I expect the loss of QB Daniels to really set Missouri back. Inexperience is abound for Missouri at QB this year. Also, NFL Draft pick Maclin is gone at WR along with the other starters at Receiver. They should be ok along the O-Line and at Running Back, but I cannot imagine this being an explosive Offense.

On Defense, Missouri lost 3 NFL Draft Picks, including 2 on the Defensive Line. Again, this is not a program that easilly re-loads. Thus, these losses are critical. Missouri was also 1-3 ATS on Neutral sites last year.

Illinois, on the other hand, should be explosive offensively. I expect QB Juice Williams to continue to improve along with Benn and the rest of the Receiver Corp. The O-Line should be good, as 4 starters are>310 pounds! The line is big and should open holes for the running game and provide time for Williams to be effective in the passing game.

On Defense, Illinois has 3 starters returning on the D-Line and 7 returning in the Secondary with starting experience.

This game is more lopsided than the spread indicates...look for Illinois to win this one going away!!!

NCSU-  Thursday nite opener in Raleigh, Russell Wilson qb,  think state comes out pumped and ready to play, with a little revenge.  SC only has 11 returning starters and QB Garcia will be shaky!! Very shaky!!! Gotta go with homefield advantage opening nite and a much better qb. 

 

Minny- Minn has 18 returning starters, including QB and Sr wr Decker(84 catches, best in big10 last yr), 8 def. starters(tied for 1st in nation with 22 sacks).  Syracuse has a new head coach and a new qb in Paulus. Orange mite be pumped up early but i think after a few big plays from minn. offense and the rout is on.

 

UAB-  This is my favorite. Rice loses c-usa player of yr QB Chase CLement, and with that 97% of pass game, and lose 93% of their running attack.  Uab returns everyone on offense, including qb who threw 2300yds and ran 1000yds.  Plus a defense(7 return) that improved vastly over the last 4 games of last season.   New qb on the road vs a team that returns 18, go blazers.

 

GL to everyone this yr.

           

Choppin' Broccolay! 

 

great write-up on UAB... i already had this as one of the 3 top plays i posted, but you even managed to sell me on it more...

 

trying to find a killer 3-teamer... right now, this looks pretty damn good:  Min (-6.5), UAB (-5.5), LSU (-16.5)

 

others i'm thinking about:  Illinois (-7), Penn St (-27)

OU (-22) also deserves consideration... especially if i can get it back down to (-21)...

I know everyone seems to love UAB, and Rice has lost a lot, but isn't this an example of one awful team UAB (D1 Bottom 30) against and an even crappier team in Rice (D1 Bottom 20 in a rebuilding year)? 

 

I know its great to search out undervalued jewels during the season and not necessarily go with the Top 15 teams (ie Texas, Penn State, LSU) each week.  But in week 1, I think there is a lot more risk taking traditionally crappy teams like Minn, Syracuse, UAB and Rice.    Does the reward justify the risk?  None of these teams play D, all have marginal recruiting histories and virtually no player any of these 4 teams would be a backup much less a starter on one of the powerhouse college teams.

 

My point - this is week one.  The Bookie Sharps are guessing like we are.  Bet with the powerhouse teams who play solid D, are well coached, have explosive offenses, with championship talent who are playing patsies (preferably at home) and want to run it up for the home fans.

 

Again, I just don't get the love for the UAB's and Rice's of college football handicapping, especially in week 1.