@cadman04
No, not really. Just saying that it’s closer to a fair line than most people realize. There’s a lot of threads asking why this line is so high. Knowing what the line should be is not predictive of what the outcome of a matchup will be, there are many more factors to consider. But, knowing what the line should be vs. what it is at that moment will allow a bettor to have some closing line value more often than not.
Washington defense will give up a ton of yards and points, Ive followed many of their games and against GOOD offenses they seem to be unable to stop teams from scoring so to me I am not sure the Wash offense can score as easily as their defense will give it up. I could see Oregon beating the crap out of Washington by 21-28 points. Is it possible Washington can keep pace? Well to me the only way they can win is if Oregon makes a ton of mistakes and Washington can make long drives and keep the defense off the field as much as possible.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
That said, I did establish a small position on UW +10 -115. I do think both teams play a great game that goes down to the wire.
Both teams are outstanding on Offense. Oregon,however, plays a much more
aggressive style of Defense which helps limit production of opposing passing QB's.
I don't know why Wash. does not pressure opposing QB's very much , but it sure
puts a lot more pressure on their Offense to keep them in games .
Washington's Defense allows a lot of yards and big plays. Which the " O " has been
able to overcome ..... so far.
Maybe they change that for the Championship game. If they can put some heat on
Nix and their Secondary can hold up , they've got a good shot at winning.
I think your play at Wash. - 10 - 115 makes a lot of sense , especially on a
Neutral field.
TD, Blessings and Good Luck.
@Moose1986 Much respect and nice write up, only one point:
"I’ve been on Washington all season and I’m not backing out now." Good on ya! 
Let's see:
Wash 4-6 ATS last 10
while Oregon betters are:
Ore 8-2 ATS last 10
Oregon's 2 ATS losses they were up by 22 and 16 with under 4 minutes left and gave up backdoor covers to only win the games straight up by 9 and 14.
Hey, could happen here!
This is exactly how I have it capped. Tbh I think it's surprising how many people have missed the discrepancy in common opponents scores which is glaring, and think this is a simple case of 'dur, they beat them already and are getting 9.5 points?'
Washington also struggled with Arizona they didn't cover vs them and their defense looked average in that game.
Numbers aren't necessary but they help..
Fact is....
In football...
When a team has to play their butts off the week before just to get a win an a non cover....that team normally loses the spread and ballgame next game.
Recent...Detroit
Many more over the years.
OREGON BY 14 minimum
Bol fellas
@davemsh
I disagree with that analysis in so many ways!! Those are just raw passing numbers w/out any regard to game script etc. First, the best Defense on that list is clearly Utah, and Nix/Penix both had similar games. Second, the Wash vs OSU game was played in awful conditions - outlier game. Wash threw less in the USC game, not bc of Penix sucking, but bc they were murdering them on the ground .... and when they did throw, it was log passes intended to stretch the Def vertically.
Which incidentally is a big deference between these two teams' overall strategy to create explosive plays. Penix leads FBS in completions of 10 yards or more, so yes he is going to have more interceptions and lower compl%. Penix is taking more risk than Nix (i.e. your conclusions put way too much stock in compl%). Oregon, on the other hand, is about 50/50 run to pass with a lot of explosive plays in the run game.
I think this is line partially a reaction to last weeks game (which, if youve been betting on the Cougs, who knows what team will show up week to week) and the fact that most models have Oregon as the best overall team in the country. Also their is concern about Penix at the end of that game - walking off crying - as in he might be hurt or reaggravated an injury (the rumor is that he/the team have been hiding a rib injury but I have no clue if that's true).
Even with a healthy Penix (who is just as good as Nix IMO), I make this line Wash +13. Which totally surprised me bc I blindly jumped on +9.5 before I got to my computer and now I am hedged to all get out.
(This is me creating an account just to argue some random point 
)
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