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Who out there likes Bama at - 24

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Posted: #101
24 is just a terrible play as far as VALUE is concerned...
   *these numbers were made using last years final power ratings....with little / no adjustments..........WEIRD 
Bama around 21-22 pts better LY.....(plus a couple for grins)

  *number should be closer to 17-18...where it is on GOY lines it seems

But....you would have to be crazy to bet against Bama....as they have been killing folks...
  MOV?....starting with last game LY....
28-4-49-49-(-5)-4-31-31-32-19-33-52-35-27
21-28-24-17-(-3)-31-45-34-28-24-41-16-31....DAYUM

MATCH-UP wise....
  *how in TF do the Hokies move the ball?....how much can they score?....we have to assume the won't be able to RUN.....at all.....so the game will squarely rest on the shoulders of Logan Thomas.....
 
 *it is tempting to say that the Hokie D stands a chance of at least (slowing down) Bama....as Bama lost some great players / LEADERSHIP on the OL...and Hokie DC Foster a highly respected innovator...with usually strong secondary play....
BUT....it is just as likely that Hokies get steamrolled...

The only reason you bet VT here (+17-18 or so) is so you can throw it in the face of Bama / SEC HOMERS.....if you cover...
  *but that would take turnover's by AJ.....special team errors.....and overall Bama complacency.....Saban most likely will not allow that kind of nonsense...

NO BAMA PLAYER WANTS TO EVEN CONSIDER THE HORRIBLE PRACTICES THEY WOULD HAVE AFTER AN EMBARRASSMENT ON NATIONAL TV WEEK ONE.......    

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #102
The KEY.....to Bama success as of late....is a great offense.....when they need it

Teams expect them to simply > line up and run right at you.....which is what they (kinda) used to do.....and what most coaches would do....

No more.....absolutely brilliant OFFENSIVE game plans the last 2 BCS title games....using shifts / motion to create match-up problems for the D....MAGNIFYING the physical / athletic edges they had to begin with.....
  *Notre Dame looked silly....not because they were a bad team ....but because Bama was GREAT > so watch out before you fade the Irish this year....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #103
BA , Thanks for the insight on this matchup .
I like Bama up to - 20 1/2 , but that does not mean I'd bet that #.
Seventeen or less would be attractive for me.
Va Tech loses a lot on offense, and I'm not a fan of Logan Thomas.
They do however have a reasonably good defense # 18 total and
# 32 scoring D. I believe Bama will pull away early and VaTech
doesn't have the players on offense to narrow the gap.


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Posted: #104
I forgot to mention Va Tech's O stats last year # 81 in scoring and
# 81 in total offense .Mercifully they lose most of their starters on
offense from last year, but in this matchup, they are playing an SEC
team, which will magnify the disparity between both teams.
I believe AJ McCarron could be the best QB in the country and as a
Senior will look to perform for the scouts in the NFL.

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Posted: #105
In Golden Nugget's updated lines of 6 /14 , Bama is still at -17.
Total is 47 1/2.
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Posted: #106
I think this was stated earlier by jimmy. But if the line is sitting at -21-24 the play would seem to be on bama first half (assuming -14 or less) and/or the total or bama's team total. Depending the numbers of course. I just think if the tide roll, the roll in the first half. Then you have no worries of saban taking his foot off the gas
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :

I think this was stated earlier by jimmy. But if the line is sitting at -21-24 the play would seem to be on bama first half (assuming -14 or less) and/or the total or bama's team total. Depending the numbers of course. I just think if the tide roll, the roll in the first half. Then you have no worries of saban taking his foot off the gas




I completely agree with that
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :

I think this was stated earlier by jimmy. But if the line is sitting at -21-24 the play would seem to be on bama first half (assuming -14 or less) and/or the total or bama's team total. Depending the numbers of course. I just think if the tide roll, the roll in the first half. Then you have no worries of saban taking his foot off the gas




I also think that Nick Saban will be sending a message to A & M,

in the Va Tech game ,letting A & M know that Bama's coming for

a piece of their hide after last year.
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

24 is just a terrible play as far as VALUE is concerned...
   *these numbers were made using last years final power ratings....with little / no adjustments..........WEIRD 
Bama around 21-22 pts better LY.....(plus a couple for grins)

  *number should be closer to 17-18...where it is on GOY lines it seems

But....you would have to be crazy to bet against Bama....as they have been killing folks...
  MOV?....starting with last game LY....
28-4-49-49-(-5)-4-31-31-32-19-33-52-35-27
21-28-24-17-(-3)-31-45-34-28-24-41-16-31....DAYUM

MATCH-UP wise....
  *how in TF do the Hokies move the ball?....how much can they score?....we have to assume the won't be able to RUN.....at all.....so the game will squarely rest on the shoulders of Logan Thomas.....
 
 *it is tempting to say that the Hokie D stands a chance of at least (slowing down) Bama....as Bama lost some great players / LEADERSHIP on the OL...and Hokie DC Foster a highly respected innovator...with usually strong secondary play....
BUT....it is just as likely that Hokies get steamrolled...

The only reason you bet VT here (+17-18 or so) is so you can throw it in the face of Bama / SEC HOMERS.....if you cover...
  *but that would take turnover's by AJ.....special team errors.....and overall Bama complacency.....Saban most likely will not allow that kind of nonsense...

NO BAMA PLAYER WANTS TO EVEN CONSIDER THE HORRIBLE PRACTICES THEY WOULD HAVE AFTER AN EMBARRASSMENT ON NATIONAL TV WEEK ONE.......    





Hey BA , I think this will be a perfect matchup for Bama to start
the season and also " tune up " for week 3. Logan Thomas a
" dual threat type" will give Bama a chance to test fire their " dual
threat D " in preparation for the Aggies.
Also it will give Bama a chance to give their new O line some work.



Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #110
for some reason I really think Virginia Tech can cover as a 17 pt dog against alabama...i'm not typing up paragraphs on why because I'm not a tout but I think so


i see a 27-13 type game 
 
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Posted: #111
test
 
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Posted: #112
Wise, i completely agree with you. I think saban sends a message through the vtech game. But i think they do it without using too much of the playbook. I think he'll have something special for a&m. Either way, i think Logan Thomas continues to suck against good competition. He has NO ONE around him
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :

Wise, i completely agree with you. I think saban sends a message through the vtech game. But i think they do it without using too much of the playbook. I think he'll have something special for a&m. Either way, i think Logan Thomas continues to suck against good competition. He has NO ONE around him




I don't think Bama will  need too much of the playbook to stop
Va Tech.


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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by MichaelRocks:

for some reason I really think Virginia Tech can cover as a 17 pt dog against alabama...i'm not typing up paragraphs on why because I'm not a tout but I think so


i see a 27-13 type game 


Not busting your balls here MR.....
  *certainly nothing wrong with going with your instincts....if usually they work for you

BUT....in general a bad way to go about it.....expecting MAGIC or a divine force.....to intervene somehow

Examine each team last year....

Hokie O was terrible....
  *last few....couldn't run vs Rutgers (0.1/rush)....3.1 v Virg.....3.2 v BC.....2.4 v Fla St

QB Thomas vs decent to good D's....(Rutgers...FSU...Pitt...Cinn...Clem...Cinn).....was 80-162 with 5 TD/11INT.......49%....he was the nation's #93 rated paser

Now...they have a new OC (from Auburn yikes) ...return QB + top RB's.....lose their 3 top WR....and lose 3 OL starters

The only way you might predict they move it here....would be if Bama D was significantly weaker.....> and that ain't the case at all 
  *what makes it really tough for the Hokies here...is that Bama is SO DEEP on D....that each guy (mostly) is fighting to keep his spot....and any backsliding Saban yanks his azz immediately....so really very little chance for complacency........

 
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Posted: #115
Bookie assassine....great data and analysis....great Work
 
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Posted: #116
when i saw BAMA -24 i LMFAO

giving 24 pts on a neutral to a team with 15 returning starters including a 3 yr starter at QB?

VATECH +24 was the play and i sure am glad i took that GIFT
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





Hey BA , I think this will be a perfect matchup for Bama to start
the season and also " tune up " for week 3. Logan Thomas a
" dual threat type" will give Bama a chance to test fire their " dual
threat D " in preparation for the Aggies.
Also it will give Bama a chance to give their new O line some work.





I would love to see the Hokies (always have liked them) give Bama a good game....but I won't put any cash behind it....if LT (poof!)...plays to his potential...and Bama finally shows that they are human...and Hokie D forces a mistake or two....and IF.........  
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #118
For many teams, due to coaching changes ,roster changes ,
QB changes , injuries and /or suspensions , coordinator
changes , uniform changes ( I thought I'd throw that one in
to see if you were still with me ) , week 1 is somewhat of
a challenge to handicap. There is only one team playing for
the honor that comes with being the National Champion ,
and they have proven to come out the next year to totally
defend their place in College Football.I believe they will do
it again this year.
And IF.......  Va Tech happens to be the first team up in the
process .........

BA


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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

24 is just a terrible play as far as VALUE is concerned...
   *these numbers were made using last years final power ratings....with little / no adjustments..........WEIRD 
Bama around 21-22 pts better LY.....(plus a couple for grins)

  *number should be closer to 17-18...where it is on GOY lines it seems

But....you would have to be crazy to bet against Bama....as they have been killing folks...
  MOV?....starting with last game LY....
28-4-49-49-(-5)-4-31-31-32-19-33-52-35-27
21-28-24-17-(-3)-31-45-34-28-24-41-16-31....DAYUM

MATCH-UP wise....
  *how in TF do the Hokies move the ball?....how much can they score?....we have to assume the won't be able to RUN.....at all.....so the game will squarely rest on the shoulders of Logan Thomas.....
 
 *it is tempting to say that the Hokie D stands a chance of at least (slowing down) Bama....as Bama lost some great players / LEADERSHIP on the OL...and Hokie DC Foster a highly respected innovator...with usually strong secondary play....
BUT....it is just as likely that Hokies get steamrolled...

The only reason you bet VT here (+17-18 or so) is so you can throw it in the face of Bama / SEC HOMERS.....if you cover...
  *but that would take turnover's by AJ.....special team errors.....and overall Bama complacency.....Saban most likely will not allow that kind of nonsense...

NO BAMA PLAYER WANTS TO EVEN CONSIDER THE HORRIBLE PRACTICES THEY WOULD HAVE AFTER AN EMBARRASSMENT ON NATIONAL TV WEEK ONE.......    




Hey BA , I just wanted to share some Phil Steele logic in this
matter with you.
According to Phil, Logan Thomas' poor performance LY was actually a "boon " to Va Tech this year as he decided to return
rather than to turn PRO......... HUH ?


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Posted: #120

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



Not busting your balls here MR.....
  *certainly nothing wrong with going with your instincts....if usually they work for you

BUT....in general a bad way to go about it.....expecting MAGIC or a divine force.....to intervene somehow

Examine each team last year....

Hokie O was terrible....
  *last few....couldn't run vs Rutgers (0.1/rush)....3.1 v Virg.....3.2 v BC.....2.4 v Fla St

QB Thomas vs decent to good D's....(Rutgers...FSU...Pitt...Cinn...Clem...Cinn).....was 80-162 with 5 TD/11INT.......49%....he was the nation's #93 rated paser

Now...they have a new OC (from Auburn yikes) ...return QB + top RB's.....lose their 3 top WR....and lose 3 OL starters

The only way you might predict they move it here....would be if Bama D was significantly weaker.....> and that ain't the case at all 
  *what makes it really tough for the Hokies here...is that Bama is SO DEEP on D....that each guy (mostly) is fighting to keep his spot....and any backsliding Saban yanks his azz immediately....so really very little chance for complacency........

 

right on BA

Saban's current situation at Bama reminds me of Darrell Royal's Texas teams in the 1960's in an era of unlimited scholarships.   In essense, if a player did not play at an extremely high level or had a marginal attitude, there was a 7 deep for each position and he was shown the bench.  Therefore, the starters and the 2 Deep were strongly encouraged to play at 100% in games and in practice or else.   With Bama putting a lot of players in the NFL, the stakes are high for those players.  That's the difference between Bama and LSU, motivation...they both recruit the same caliber of player from a talent perspective, with one putting the fear of God in them and the other going through the motions...

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #121
BA ,
I'm currently watching the 2013 Va Tech Spring Game on
You Tube.
In the Orange Team's first two possessions ( Logan Thomas Qb )
he threw 2 pick 6s. Wow !!! They also appear to have OL issues.
I highly recommend to anyone wanting to take Va Tech and the
points to watch this. New Off. Coord.,New OL coach. Va tech has
a way to go to be ready for the season.

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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

BA ,
I'm currently watching the 2013 Va Tech Spring Game on
You Tube.
In the Orange Team's first two possessions ( Logan Thomas Qb )
he threw 2 pick 6s. Wow !!! They also appear to have OL issues.
I highly recommend to anyone wanting to take Va Tech and the
points to watch this. New Off. Coord.,New OL coach. Va tech has
a way to go to be ready for the season.




I know it's a spring game, but the !'s on offense did not run block
well at all.The D looked good, but Va Tech's poor O line play made
them look even better.Bama should be able to run on them.Liked
Va Tech's secondary play, although Va Tech's new WR's had
trouble getting separation due to lack of experience. Remember
this is a new Off. Coord. and O Line coach and they've not got the
whole playbook down, but they executed poorly in my opinion.I do
not believe Logan Thomas will perform well under pressure in a new
offensive scheme.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #123
dude, wise, thanks for the update...I just want the chumps out there to take Va Tech so the line will stay manageable for everyone else, including yours truly and maybe you...so keep it on the down low, bro!  let's make some money in week 1...and Roll Tide!
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Posted: #124
Line -18.5 now
 
 
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Posted: #125
Current Lines on Bama Va Tech Matchup.



Golden Nugget GOY    Bama - 17       47 1/2

5 Dimes      Bama -20

Bet Online   Bama  - 18 1/2


Best of Luck to all
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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