- tough to knock a horse that shows up every time, runs hard and with strong effort, and keeps winning
- all of his wins seem to be grinding efforts and he hasn't really run by horses easily late in the lane
- most of his noise on the Big A inner strip and not the main
- very consistent speed figs but not rising gradually so i'm left to wonder is this the best we will see from this guy or will he move forward?
- blood/tree suggests the 10F is possible primarily from daddy's side but iffy from mommy's side and inconclusive on the sibs
bottom line: for me the Wood will tell me what i really need to know about this guy. it certainly looks like he will run his race and try hard but is he good enough. this 9F, switch to the main, and level of competition particularly with the gulfstream speedball coming in will tell me a lot.
update: really no change. very nice horse that runs hard and fires every time. still think he runs a bot even late and not sure he'll improve going out further. i can see him looking like he has a shot at the top of the lane if he gets a clean trip but will he accelerate home or flatten out late? i'm likely tossing him.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Samraat:
- tough to knock a horse that shows up every time, runs hard and with strong effort, and keeps winning
- all of his wins seem to be grinding efforts and he hasn't really run by horses easily late in the lane
- most of his noise on the Big A inner strip and not the main
- very consistent speed figs but not rising gradually so i'm left to wonder is this the best we will see from this guy or will he move forward?
- blood/tree suggests the 10F is possible primarily from daddy's side but iffy from mommy's side and inconclusive on the sibs
bottom line: for me the Wood will tell me what i really need to know about this guy. it certainly looks like he will run his race and try hard but is he good enough. this 9F, switch to the main, and level of competition particularly with the gulfstream speedball coming in will tell me a lot.
update: really no change. very nice horse that runs hard and fires every time. still think he runs a bot even late and not sure he'll improve going out further. i can see him looking like he has a shot at the top of the lane if he gets a clean trip but will he accelerate home or flatten out late? i'm likely tossing him.
- here's another that on the surface i can't really knock him too much. he's run fairly fast relative to the entire field and he has for sure fired all four times he's been out - but, what i notice is that he seems to even out late a bit as he went out a little further in distance. in his last two he was right there he simply didn't get it done. i'm expecting this Wood Memorial to expose him a little bit on late speed and stamina but we shall see - as stated above his pattern concerns me i don't see it building up to get better going out further. could even end up running around one turn after the TC season - never seen an Indian Charlie win big races beyond 9F or even 8.5F for whatever reason but his mommy's side does provide more stamina
bottom line: as of right now I would toss. he needs to surprise me a lot in the Wood which i don't expect. i expect him to be up front or very close to the lead and to either fail to catch Social Inclusion or get gobbled up late but you never know.
update: not much change here. i know he didn't have a great trip in the Wood but it looked to me like he tried hard and gave his effort he's just not good enough at this level and distance. i still see him ending up around one turn. definitely tossing if he gets in.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Uncle Sigh:
- here's another that on the surface i can't really knock him too much. he's run fairly fast relative to the entire field and he has for sure fired all four times he's been out - but, what i notice is that he seems to even out late a bit as he went out a little further in distance. in his last two he was right there he simply didn't get it done. i'm expecting this Wood Memorial to expose him a little bit on late speed and stamina but we shall see - as stated above his pattern concerns me i don't see it building up to get better going out further. could even end up running around one turn after the TC season - never seen an Indian Charlie win big races beyond 9F or even 8.5F for whatever reason but his mommy's side does provide more stamina
bottom line: as of right now I would toss. he needs to surprise me a lot in the Wood which i don't expect. i expect him to be up front or very close to the lead and to either fail to catch Social Inclusion or get gobbled up late but you never know.
update: not much change here. i know he didn't have a great trip in the Wood but it looked to me like he tried hard and gave his effort he's just not good enough at this level and distance. i still see him ending up around one turn. definitely tossing if he gets in.
- popped a 104 in the G1 Wood and showed substantial improvement over previous efforts. rallied from off the pace but got within striking range at the top of the pane and kicked him with some energy
- the NYRA guys will crucify me but though i think he ran a strong race i think he also gobbled up a few horses that were at best evening out late and at worst slowing down. he took advantage of it and i give him credit for that. the race looked to me like it got slower in the final quarter (and i know wind may have been an issue coming home).
- surface a potential issue? two best spins on the Aqueduct main.
- prior to yesterday did not appear to be projecting forward to his best ever at 9F and 10F
bottom line: he ran a 104 at 9F in a very high profile G1 and came home with energy from off the pace. i can't ignore that. i can't decide where i'm at overall though with this guy. not sure if i see him popping big again next time and also a bit curious if he is a solid closer into 9F but not beyond that.
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Wicked Strong:
- popped a 104 in the G1 Wood and showed substantial improvement over previous efforts. rallied from off the pace but got within striking range at the top of the pane and kicked him with some energy
- the NYRA guys will crucify me but though i think he ran a strong race i think he also gobbled up a few horses that were at best evening out late and at worst slowing down. he took advantage of it and i give him credit for that. the race looked to me like it got slower in the final quarter (and i know wind may have been an issue coming home).
- surface a potential issue? two best spins on the Aqueduct main.
- prior to yesterday did not appear to be projecting forward to his best ever at 9F and 10F
bottom line: he ran a 104 at 9F in a very high profile G1 and came home with energy from off the pace. i can't ignore that. i can't decide where i'm at overall though with this guy. not sure if i see him popping big again next time and also a bit curious if he is a solid closer into 9F but not beyond that.
Arkansas Derby: probably won't be playing this as I just don't get involved with oaklawn. but in terms of the derby i'm interested in the results. Will Take Charge runs the same day on the same surface at the same distance. he has extremely strong recency and numbers. i assume he's maintained his high fitness level. if he runs hard and tries hard i'll be very interested to see how the 3YO race compares. i'll also be looking to see who is finishing with zip and energy.
Blue Grass: probably filled with mostly so called "turf horses". for derby implications i'll be very interested in considering any horse that shows strong late speed in this race with good late movement and hits the tri IF he also has other races that suggest he wants 9F and more distance. i figure most of the derby horses do not want the 10F so if someone does they are useful even if surface is a potential issue.
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Arkansas Derby: probably won't be playing this as I just don't get involved with oaklawn. but in terms of the derby i'm interested in the results. Will Take Charge runs the same day on the same surface at the same distance. he has extremely strong recency and numbers. i assume he's maintained his high fitness level. if he runs hard and tries hard i'll be very interested to see how the 3YO race compares. i'll also be looking to see who is finishing with zip and energy.
Blue Grass: probably filled with mostly so called "turf horses". for derby implications i'll be very interested in considering any horse that shows strong late speed in this race with good late movement and hits the tri IF he also has other races that suggest he wants 9F and more distance. i figure most of the derby horses do not want the 10F so if someone does they are useful even if surface is a potential issue.
This thread is great, thanks Atlas! It's a who's who of Covers horseracing.
As far as Hoppertunity is concerned, I think any horse who came out of the Rebel (as Mikey P stated) should be upgraded. That race was a slug fest in the lane and everyone gained some serious experience in that one. I think "battled tested" should be a trait for derby horses and that race was a war.
HB
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This thread is great, thanks Atlas! It's a who's who of Covers horseracing.
As far as Hoppertunity is concerned, I think any horse who came out of the Rebel (as Mikey P stated) should be upgraded. That race was a slug fest in the lane and everyone gained some serious experience in that one. I think "battled tested" should be a trait for derby horses and that race was a war.
Thanks for the write ups on Commissioner and CT! I think your Commissioner write up is probably spot on and I am probably just giving him too much credit based on blood lines.
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Thanks for the write ups on Commissioner and CT! I think your Commissioner write up is probably spot on and I am probably just giving him too much credit based on blood lines.
- here's one that might be a potential bombs away horse for me
- this guy was entered for either turf or synthetic only his first four spins before being gelded after which he went out and popped two lifetime highs on dirt
- another one of those Tapits though he does get some help from the other side on distance/stamina
- improving pattern, really woke up recently, and seems to be heading the right way at the right time
- makes his next start in an ungraded event at Calder going 9F. not sure how much this well tell us unless he just crushes easily
bottom line: i can see him getting ignored on the board based on him skipping the G1 races for that Calder race unless he puts up a huge fig there. if he relaxes in that race and makes a late move showing some energy and zip i might be enticed into using him as a bomb but if he runs say above 100 he's gonna get bet probably below 15/1 (even though i think others like me are skeptical of Calder figs)
Update: I have to toss this guy. he lost by over nine lengths in the ungraded event at Calder and the winner got an 88 which i think is grossly inflated. This race highlights some of my views on figs versus raw times and my analysis of the figs from certain places. the track is a dirt track and it was rated fast. the final time was 1:54 and change for 9F and the pacesetter hit the 6F in 1:14 and change. i don't care how many ways one can analyze it this was a slow race and the fig was above 85 only because the other races that day and on recent days were likely atrociously slow and abysmal. nonetheless, i just don't see how i can support this guy after he was 30 cents on the dollar to blast some cupcakes and he did essentially nothing in a low quality race. i trust this particular trainer to probably get him to rebound with something better but even then there's only so much he can do.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Ring Weekend:
- here's one that might be a potential bombs away horse for me
- this guy was entered for either turf or synthetic only his first four spins before being gelded after which he went out and popped two lifetime highs on dirt
- another one of those Tapits though he does get some help from the other side on distance/stamina
- improving pattern, really woke up recently, and seems to be heading the right way at the right time
- makes his next start in an ungraded event at Calder going 9F. not sure how much this well tell us unless he just crushes easily
bottom line: i can see him getting ignored on the board based on him skipping the G1 races for that Calder race unless he puts up a huge fig there. if he relaxes in that race and makes a late move showing some energy and zip i might be enticed into using him as a bomb but if he runs say above 100 he's gonna get bet probably below 15/1 (even though i think others like me are skeptical of Calder figs)
Update: I have to toss this guy. he lost by over nine lengths in the ungraded event at Calder and the winner got an 88 which i think is grossly inflated. This race highlights some of my views on figs versus raw times and my analysis of the figs from certain places. the track is a dirt track and it was rated fast. the final time was 1:54 and change for 9F and the pacesetter hit the 6F in 1:14 and change. i don't care how many ways one can analyze it this was a slow race and the fig was above 85 only because the other races that day and on recent days were likely atrociously slow and abysmal. nonetheless, i just don't see how i can support this guy after he was 30 cents on the dollar to blast some cupcakes and he did essentially nothing in a low quality race. i trust this particular trainer to probably get him to rebound with something better but even then there's only so much he can do.
I think Uncle Sigh was a victim of horrible Corey Nakatani! He is awful, and Contessa shoulda used a different jock.
Agreed on Nakatani...the guy can't do anything right outside of California in my book......However, I think Uncle Sigh just isn't fast enough to beat some of the speed and a stalker who will be in the KY Derby
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Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:
I think Uncle Sigh was a victim of horrible Corey Nakatani! He is awful, and Contessa shoulda used a different jock.
Agreed on Nakatani...the guy can't do anything right outside of California in my book......However, I think Uncle Sigh just isn't fast enough to beat some of the speed and a stalker who will be in the KY Derby
This thread is great, thanks Atlas! It's a who's who of Covers horseracing.
As far as Hoppertunity is concerned, I think any horse who came out of the Rebel (as Mikey P stated) should be upgraded. That race was a slug fest in the lane and everyone gained some serious experience in that one. I think "battled tested" should be a trait for derby horses and that race was a war.
HB
BULL...I think we need to watch the replay of the Arkansas Derby 2014 several times when it's over and , also, really take a look at the running times. I think the race will give us major clues as to who will win the KY Derby--whether the horse comes out of the Ark. Derby or not!
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Quote Originally Posted by HolyBull:
This thread is great, thanks Atlas! It's a who's who of Covers horseracing.
As far as Hoppertunity is concerned, I think any horse who came out of the Rebel (as Mikey P stated) should be upgraded. That race was a slug fest in the lane and everyone gained some serious experience in that one. I think "battled tested" should be a trait for derby horses and that race was a war.
HB
BULL...I think we need to watch the replay of the Arkansas Derby 2014 several times when it's over and , also, really take a look at the running times. I think the race will give us major clues as to who will win the KY Derby--whether the horse comes out of the Ark. Derby or not!
Update: I have to toss this guy. he lost by over nine lengths in the ungraded event at Calder and the winner got an 88 which i think is grossly inflated. This race highlights some of my views on figs versus raw times and my analysis of the figs from certain places. the track is a dirt track and it was rated fast. the final time was 1:54 and change for 9F and the pacesetter hit the 6F in 1:14 and change. i don't care how many ways one can analyze it this was a slow race and the fig was above 85 only because the other races that day and on recent days were likely atrociously slow and abysmal. nonetheless, i just don't see how i can support this guy after he was 30 cents on the dollar to blast some cupcakes and he did essentially nothing in a low quality race. i trust this particular trainer to probably get him to rebound with something better but even then there's only so much he can do.
I hear you and I'm not saying I disagree because I have had similar thoughts, and still do. However, I'm trying like hell to change/tweak my handicapping ways a bit. Instead of always trying to find ways to exclude contenders, trying to focus on reasons to include them. Certainly can help with your price.
Some reasons:
1) His Tampa race was pretty darn good. Vinceremos & Conquest Titan could flatter or flatten him based on performances this weekend.
2) He's bred top and bottom to excel at classic distances and has something of a 2yo foundation.
3) trainer been there, done that.
4) In the grand scheme of things that race meant absolutely squat (other than the 250k purse). I'm not underestimating this.
5) His price will be amazing (40-1?)
6) I did read the Calder track has been playing very deep, maybe there is an "excuse" for the poor time.
I have searched long and far for comments from the trainer/connections but it's been crickets thus far. Looking to see what excuses are and if they intend to move forth towards KYD.
I guess what I'm trying to say is, not ready to toss just yet.
HB
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Update: I have to toss this guy. he lost by over nine lengths in the ungraded event at Calder and the winner got an 88 which i think is grossly inflated. This race highlights some of my views on figs versus raw times and my analysis of the figs from certain places. the track is a dirt track and it was rated fast. the final time was 1:54 and change for 9F and the pacesetter hit the 6F in 1:14 and change. i don't care how many ways one can analyze it this was a slow race and the fig was above 85 only because the other races that day and on recent days were likely atrociously slow and abysmal. nonetheless, i just don't see how i can support this guy after he was 30 cents on the dollar to blast some cupcakes and he did essentially nothing in a low quality race. i trust this particular trainer to probably get him to rebound with something better but even then there's only so much he can do.
I hear you and I'm not saying I disagree because I have had similar thoughts, and still do. However, I'm trying like hell to change/tweak my handicapping ways a bit. Instead of always trying to find ways to exclude contenders, trying to focus on reasons to include them. Certainly can help with your price.
Some reasons:
1) His Tampa race was pretty darn good. Vinceremos & Conquest Titan could flatter or flatten him based on performances this weekend.
2) He's bred top and bottom to excel at classic distances and has something of a 2yo foundation.
3) trainer been there, done that.
4) In the grand scheme of things that race meant absolutely squat (other than the 250k purse). I'm not underestimating this.
5) His price will be amazing (40-1?)
6) I did read the Calder track has been playing very deep, maybe there is an "excuse" for the poor time.
I have searched long and far for comments from the trainer/connections but it's been crickets thus far. Looking to see what excuses are and if they intend to move forth towards KYD.
I guess what I'm trying to say is, not ready to toss just yet.
Agree on trainer. Agree on the context of that race the way you are describing it. Not sure about the Tapits beyond 9F but the other side helps him.
I think this particular trainer would not urge the owner to move on to Louisville to keep himself in the spotlight as he seems to me to be one of the rare ethical ones. I do think he was using this Calder cream puff race as a "launching pad" and maybe he felt that surface would set him up for CD well. That said, my gut says he's being honest with the owner now about his assessment of the horse's chances in the Kentucky Derby. if he felt the race set him up and he has him where he thinks he would be competitive I think he probably would have said so.
if he goes maybe 50/1 or more, no?
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Agree on trainer. Agree on the context of that race the way you are describing it. Not sure about the Tapits beyond 9F but the other side helps him.
I think this particular trainer would not urge the owner to move on to Louisville to keep himself in the spotlight as he seems to me to be one of the rare ethical ones. I do think he was using this Calder cream puff race as a "launching pad" and maybe he felt that surface would set him up for CD well. That said, my gut says he's being honest with the owner now about his assessment of the horse's chances in the Kentucky Derby. if he felt the race set him up and he has him where he thinks he would be competitive I think he probably would have said so.
- 3/3 lifetime, figs are rising gradually, figs rise along with distance, and razor sharp recency
- hasn't run the highest numbers but has two routes at Gulfstream with a 98 and a 99 in a G1 which are numbers I trust more than a few of the others
- looked game and pretty lively finishing up that Florida Derby against a horse that is a helluva fighter and just doesn't seem to go away
- for whatever reason these Tapits just seem to kind of fall apart right after that 9F mark. i can't explain it but it's documented. he has a 150K stud fee because they win a lot and win early but they haven't been going long
- castellano, pletcher, improving pattern, solid figs . . . . . as long as he isn't in post 1-6 you can count on 6/1ish tops on this guy
Bottom line: i'm absolutely not convinced he can win at this distance but I have a hard time completely tossing him because i have to respect that he keeps firing. i personally would not bet him to WP at his low price but i'm not sure i can leave him out of a tri or super. i hate these scenarios because he isn't as obviously distance challenged as an Uncle Mo (i know he missed the Derby but you get my point) or Verrazano but i just have this inclination that the final furlong could be awful tough for this guy.
Watch the Florida Derby and watch how Constitution is fighting with Castellano on the backstretch. He wanted to run and the jock wouldn't let him. The horse was really moving his head up and down very hard. That takes something out of a horse and he still had enough to go past Wildcat Red in a average paced race on an early speed favoring track like Gulfstream.
That was a nice run by Constitution. The Derby is only another furlong.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Constitution:
- 3/3 lifetime, figs are rising gradually, figs rise along with distance, and razor sharp recency
- hasn't run the highest numbers but has two routes at Gulfstream with a 98 and a 99 in a G1 which are numbers I trust more than a few of the others
- looked game and pretty lively finishing up that Florida Derby against a horse that is a helluva fighter and just doesn't seem to go away
- for whatever reason these Tapits just seem to kind of fall apart right after that 9F mark. i can't explain it but it's documented. he has a 150K stud fee because they win a lot and win early but they haven't been going long
- castellano, pletcher, improving pattern, solid figs . . . . . as long as he isn't in post 1-6 you can count on 6/1ish tops on this guy
Bottom line: i'm absolutely not convinced he can win at this distance but I have a hard time completely tossing him because i have to respect that he keeps firing. i personally would not bet him to WP at his low price but i'm not sure i can leave him out of a tri or super. i hate these scenarios because he isn't as obviously distance challenged as an Uncle Mo (i know he missed the Derby but you get my point) or Verrazano but i just have this inclination that the final furlong could be awful tough for this guy.
Watch the Florida Derby and watch how Constitution is fighting with Castellano on the backstretch. He wanted to run and the jock wouldn't let him. The horse was really moving his head up and down very hard. That takes something out of a horse and he still had enough to go past Wildcat Red in a average paced race on an early speed favoring track like Gulfstream.
That was a nice run by Constitution. The Derby is only another furlong.
Watch the Florida Derby and watch how Constitution is fighting with Castellano on the backstretch. He wanted to run and the jock wouldn't let him. The horse was really moving his head up and down very hard. That takes something out of a horse and he still had enough to go past Wildcat Red in a average paced race on an early speed favoring track like Gulfstream.
That was a nice run by Constitution. The Derby is only another furlong.
And after being so rank on the backstretch, watch how Constitution closes that 2-3 length deficit behind the leader coming into the top of the stretch like it was nothing.
That horse was full of run that day. He didn't seem exhausted in the gallop out that I could see.
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:
Watch the Florida Derby and watch how Constitution is fighting with Castellano on the backstretch. He wanted to run and the jock wouldn't let him. The horse was really moving his head up and down very hard. That takes something out of a horse and he still had enough to go past Wildcat Red in a average paced race on an early speed favoring track like Gulfstream.
That was a nice run by Constitution. The Derby is only another furlong.
And after being so rank on the backstretch, watch how Constitution closes that 2-3 length deficit behind the leader coming into the top of the stretch like it was nothing.
That horse was full of run that day. He didn't seem exhausted in the gallop out that I could see.
Castellano had his pick of much of the field of the Florida Derby, including having ridden Wildcat Red and third-place General a Rod. He stuck with Constitution, upon whom he impressively won a seven-furlong maiden race (after breaking last and having to squeeze through horses) Jan. 11 and a 1 1/16-mile allowance event in wire to wire fashion.
"I was very confident with the horse," Castellano said. "The first time I rode the horse, he really impressed me. He broke slow out of the gate and he kind of ran off on the backside and I hooked up with the pacemaker. We went in 22, 44 and the horse still had something in the tank at the top of the stretch. That impressed me very much. As soon as I jumped off the horse, I told Mr. Walden and Mr. Pletcher, 'That's a super horse.' "
The horse has been impressive in all of his races. In Constitutions' second race he blew away Wicked Strong who then won The Wood Memorial impressively in his next start.
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Castellano had his pick of much of the field of the Florida Derby, including having ridden Wildcat Red and third-place General a Rod. He stuck with Constitution, upon whom he impressively won a seven-furlong maiden race (after breaking last and having to squeeze through horses) Jan. 11 and a 1 1/16-mile allowance event in wire to wire fashion.
"I was very confident with the horse," Castellano said. "The first time I rode the horse, he really impressed me. He broke slow out of the gate and he kind of ran off on the backside and I hooked up with the pacemaker. We went in 22, 44 and the horse still had something in the tank at the top of the stretch. That impressed me very much. As soon as I jumped off the horse, I told Mr. Walden and Mr. Pletcher, 'That's a super horse.' "
The horse has been impressive in all of his races. In Constitutions' second race he blew away Wicked Strong who then won The Wood Memorial impressively in his next start.
Watch the Florida Derby and watch how Constitution is fighting with Castellano on the backstretch. He wanted to run and the jock wouldn't let him. The horse was really moving his head up and down very hard. That takes something out of a horse and he still had enough to go past Wildcat Red in a average paced race on an early speed favoring track like Gulfstream.
That was a nice run by Constitution. The Derby is only another furlong.
grey i agree. Like I said i liked how he looked in the Fla Derby I did indeed think he was game and lively finishing up. I also think he showed some maturity holding back a little bit and not gunning it up front. plenty to like about him in fact if Chrome didn't replicate his prior effort last out this horse would probably be the fav right now.
maybe i'm searching for reasons to ding him and I'm happy to admit that if that's the case. this will be just his fourth start and the Tapit up top could be a concern. but at the same time he's been very consistent and could definitely bring in a top effort and get a nice ride from an excellent jock and at least have a shot down the lane.
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:
Watch the Florida Derby and watch how Constitution is fighting with Castellano on the backstretch. He wanted to run and the jock wouldn't let him. The horse was really moving his head up and down very hard. That takes something out of a horse and he still had enough to go past Wildcat Red in a average paced race on an early speed favoring track like Gulfstream.
That was a nice run by Constitution. The Derby is only another furlong.
grey i agree. Like I said i liked how he looked in the Fla Derby I did indeed think he was game and lively finishing up. I also think he showed some maturity holding back a little bit and not gunning it up front. plenty to like about him in fact if Chrome didn't replicate his prior effort last out this horse would probably be the fav right now.
maybe i'm searching for reasons to ding him and I'm happy to admit that if that's the case. this will be just his fourth start and the Tapit up top could be a concern. but at the same time he's been very consistent and could definitely bring in a top effort and get a nice ride from an excellent jock and at least have a shot down the lane.
I will not pour cold water on the chances of Constitution, but is he in he same mold as other Todd Derby contenders who underachieved in the Derby, like Verrazano?
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I will not pour cold water on the chances of Constitution, but is he in he same mold as other Todd Derby contenders who underachieved in the Derby, like Verrazano?
Did Ride On Curlin show improved stamina yesterday in the Arkansas Derby?
He was 6 or 7 wide coming around the far turn while the winner Danza was riding the rail. He also got bumped at the start and was in the 3 path going around the first turn it looked like. Ride On Curlin got up for 2nd. He's always been a bit of a fader but that was a different type of race for him. Got used a bit on the backstretch too.
Not sure he can get 10 furlongs but might be an in the money threat in the Derby if he can get a decent trip and he's got early speed to maybe do just that.
He was also 7 wide going around the first turn in The Southwest from the 9 hole and hung on for third and lost the Rebel by a length after being right up on the pace for the whole race.
He's raced at Churchill three times already and has done fairly well but didn't win. Solid horse that seemingly fires every time but the distance of the Derby is probably too much for him.
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Did Ride On Curlin show improved stamina yesterday in the Arkansas Derby?
He was 6 or 7 wide coming around the far turn while the winner Danza was riding the rail. He also got bumped at the start and was in the 3 path going around the first turn it looked like. Ride On Curlin got up for 2nd. He's always been a bit of a fader but that was a different type of race for him. Got used a bit on the backstretch too.
Not sure he can get 10 furlongs but might be an in the money threat in the Derby if he can get a decent trip and he's got early speed to maybe do just that.
He was also 7 wide going around the first turn in The Southwest from the 9 hole and hung on for third and lost the Rebel by a length after being right up on the pace for the whole race.
He's raced at Churchill three times already and has done fairly well but didn't win. Solid horse that seemingly fires every time but the distance of the Derby is probably too much for him.
Hound I don't usually agree, but I gotta say I agree with this analysis! I was saying to a friend of mine last night Ride on Curlin reminds me of Palace Malice, could never quite get there in prep races but he's a solid horse and if he decides to wake up in a couple weeks and he gets the right trip he could be dangerous!
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Hound I don't usually agree, but I gotta say I agree with this analysis! I was saying to a friend of mine last night Ride on Curlin reminds me of Palace Malice, could never quite get there in prep races but he's a solid horse and if he decides to wake up in a couple weeks and he gets the right trip he could be dangerous!
I will not pour cold water on the chances of Constitution, but is he in he same mold as other Todd Derby contenders who underachieved in the Derby, like Verrazano?
Mirror image of Gemologist who I unfortunately touted in the Derby. Another lightly raced Winstar 3yo who was never the same after running up the track in KY.
HB
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Quote Originally Posted by mikeyp1:
I will not pour cold water on the chances of Constitution, but is he in he same mold as other Todd Derby contenders who underachieved in the Derby, like Verrazano?
Mirror image of Gemologist who I unfortunately touted in the Derby. Another lightly raced Winstar 3yo who was never the same after running up the track in KY.
Not sure about the FL Derby winners, however, not sure it matters what Derby prep they won anyway. Whether it's the Wood, the Blue Grass, Arkansas, SA Derby....the statistic is very real.
Guys, without a doubt Constitution can win this race. However, he got the perfect trip @ GP and my money will be on an individual with a more battle tested resume.
HB
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Not sure about the FL Derby winners, however, not sure it matters what Derby prep they won anyway. Whether it's the Wood, the Blue Grass, Arkansas, SA Derby....the statistic is very real.
Guys, without a doubt Constitution can win this race. However, he got the perfect trip @ GP and my money will be on an individual with a more battle tested resume.
Just out of curiosity I put together this list of how many races each horse in the current KY Derby field has run and what they did in their 4th start of their career.
There is 9 horses in this field that have run 5 or less races so far. Not sure how that stacks up to past KY Derby's but a lot of them have had good success in their 4th start.
And just to be clear, I'm not picking Constitution to win the Derby at this point. I'm just adding to the discussion.
Chitu 4 races (4th start won the G3 Sunland Derby)
California Chrome - 10 races (4th start won ungraded Graduation Stakes at Del Mar)
Vicar's In Trouble - 5 races (4th start was 3rd in the G2 Risen Star Stakes)
Wicked Strong - 6 races (4th start was 9th in the G2 Holy Bull Stakes)
Samraat - 6 races (4th start won the G3 Withers Stakes)
Danza - 4 races (4th start won the G1 Arkansas Derby)
Constitution - 3 races
Hoppertunity - 5 races (4th start won the G2 Rebel Stakes)
Intense Holiday - 8 races (4th start was 4th in the G2 Nashua Stakes)
Wildcat Red - 7 races (4th start was 2nd in the ungraded Gulfstream Park Derby)
We Miss Artie - 8 races (4th start won the G1 Dixiana Breeders Futurity)
Ride On Curlin - 9 races (4th start was 3rd in the G1 Champagne Stakes)
Tapiture - 7 races (4th start won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes)
Midnight Hawk - 5 races (4th start was 2nd in the G2 San Felipe Stakes)
Ring Weekend - 7 races (4th start was 2nd in a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream)
General A Rod - 5 races (4th start was 2nd in the G2 Fountain of Youth)
Medal Count - 7 races (4th start won an Allowance Optional Claiming at Gulfstream)
Candy Boy - 7 races (4th start won Maiden Special Weight at Hollywood Park)
Cairo Prince - 5 races (4th start won the G2 Holy Bull Stakes)
Uncle Sigh - 5 races (4th start was 2nd in the G3 Gotham Stakes)
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Just out of curiosity I put together this list of how many races each horse in the current KY Derby field has run and what they did in their 4th start of their career.
There is 9 horses in this field that have run 5 or less races so far. Not sure how that stacks up to past KY Derby's but a lot of them have had good success in their 4th start.
And just to be clear, I'm not picking Constitution to win the Derby at this point. I'm just adding to the discussion.
Chitu 4 races (4th start won the G3 Sunland Derby)
California Chrome - 10 races (4th start won ungraded Graduation Stakes at Del Mar)
Vicar's In Trouble - 5 races (4th start was 3rd in the G2 Risen Star Stakes)
Wicked Strong - 6 races (4th start was 9th in the G2 Holy Bull Stakes)
Samraat - 6 races (4th start won the G3 Withers Stakes)
Danza - 4 races (4th start won the G1 Arkansas Derby)
Constitution - 3 races
Hoppertunity - 5 races (4th start won the G2 Rebel Stakes)
Intense Holiday - 8 races (4th start was 4th in the G2 Nashua Stakes)
Wildcat Red - 7 races (4th start was 2nd in the ungraded Gulfstream Park Derby)
We Miss Artie - 8 races (4th start won the G1 Dixiana Breeders Futurity)
Ride On Curlin - 9 races (4th start was 3rd in the G1 Champagne Stakes)
Tapiture - 7 races (4th start won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes)
Midnight Hawk - 5 races (4th start was 2nd in the G2 San Felipe Stakes)
Ring Weekend - 7 races (4th start was 2nd in a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream)
General A Rod - 5 races (4th start was 2nd in the G2 Fountain of Youth)
Medal Count - 7 races (4th start won an Allowance Optional Claiming at Gulfstream)
Candy Boy - 7 races (4th start won Maiden Special Weight at Hollywood Park)
Cairo Prince - 5 races (4th start won the G2 Holy Bull Stakes)
Uncle Sigh - 5 races (4th start was 2nd in the G3 Gotham Stakes)
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