In horse racing, when a horse is galloping, the leading leg may tire, resulting in the horse slowing down. If the lead is changed, the horse will usually "find another gear" or be able to maintain its pace. Because horses race counter-clockwise in North America, a racehorse is usually trained to lead with the left leg while rounding the turn for balance, but switch to the right lead on the straightaways between the turns to rest the left.
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In horse racing, when a horse is galloping, the leading leg may tire, resulting in the horse slowing down. If the lead is changed, the horse will usually "find another gear" or be able to maintain its pace. Because horses race counter-clockwise in North America, a racehorse is usually trained to lead with the left leg while rounding the turn for balance, but switch to the right lead on the straightaways between the turns to rest the left.
That late lead change in the Wood is probably part of the reason that Wicked Strong went past Samraat so easily in the stretch.
It does look like he changed it very very late in the stretch. To me it doesn't look like he changed it until he came up on the side of Social Inclusion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4jwGXrXETc
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That late lead change in the Wood is probably part of the reason that Wicked Strong went past Samraat so easily in the stretch.
It does look like he changed it very very late in the stretch. To me it doesn't look like he changed it until he came up on the side of Social Inclusion.
Ring Weekend - why do they need to see another work before saying yes? If he was doing so good and they liked that last would they not be openly talking about running? i'm holding with my toss if he's in.
Tapiture - sticking to my guns if he's in. Doesn't look like he's set for his best under these circumstances. even Asmussen might not enter him.
Midnight Hawk - trying Hawthorne instead. Would have been pummeled in my view maybe Baffert felt the same.
Chitu - Baffert says he was "tired" in his drill. translation: trying to convince the owners to withdraw him because he doesn't think he'll fire in this race at this distance???
Dance of Fate (is that the name, not sure?) - if he's in didn't the trainer already say he highly doubts he will fire and he wants much more time between spins?
Update:
Hawk gone. Ring gone. Chitu sticking with my toss. Tapiture sticking with my toss. Dance of Fate toss.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Ring Weekend - why do they need to see another work before saying yes? If he was doing so good and they liked that last would they not be openly talking about running? i'm holding with my toss if he's in.
Tapiture - sticking to my guns if he's in. Doesn't look like he's set for his best under these circumstances. even Asmussen might not enter him.
Midnight Hawk - trying Hawthorne instead. Would have been pummeled in my view maybe Baffert felt the same.
Chitu - Baffert says he was "tired" in his drill. translation: trying to convince the owners to withdraw him because he doesn't think he'll fire in this race at this distance???
Dance of Fate (is that the name, not sure?) - if he's in didn't the trainer already say he highly doubts he will fire and he wants much more time between spins?
Update:
Hawk gone. Ring gone. Chitu sticking with my toss. Tapiture sticking with my toss. Dance of Fate toss.
Not so sure it will be an intense one here like sub 46 for this distance but I see it being contested and lively. here's who I see with a style that either a) they can only be up front and function, or b) patterns suggest their best/only chance to compete is from up front or just off the pace:
Wildcat Red Chitu Midnight Hawk (moot point he won't be in) Ring Weekend (hasn't done squat any other way) Social Inclusion Samraat Uncle Sigh Vicar's in Trouble Tapiture
i'm likely tossing all of these but not just because of style. i don't see any projecting to run their best in this race at this distance under these circumstances.
Update:
No change. Any of these still in I'm tossing them.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Pace:
Not so sure it will be an intense one here like sub 46 for this distance but I see it being contested and lively. here's who I see with a style that either a) they can only be up front and function, or b) patterns suggest their best/only chance to compete is from up front or just off the pace:
Wildcat Red Chitu Midnight Hawk (moot point he won't be in) Ring Weekend (hasn't done squat any other way) Social Inclusion Samraat Uncle Sigh Vicar's in Trouble Tapiture
i'm likely tossing all of these but not just because of style. i don't see any projecting to run their best in this race at this distance under these circumstances.
Update:
No change. Any of these still in I'm tossing them.
Slim Pickens here and I'm not sold any of these are even fast/good enough to get ALL the way up unless this thing just totally collapses but maybe in 3rd or 4th:
Commanding Curve We Miss Artie Medal Count Wicked Strong (i'm still iffy on him closing at 10F not just 9F) Ride on Curlin Intense Holiday (if they go back to prior style)
Update:
Artie - tossing.
Ride on Curlin - tossing.
Medal Count - iffy not sure yet. A lot to ask this many spins jammed in.
Commanding Curve - probably using in exotics.
Wicked strong - tossing
Intense Holiday - I was intrigued by this horse prior to the La Derby and I am coming back around on him. I take the ooohing and aahing of the works with a grain of salt but I do take very seriously recency/fitness/health. he's bred a lot better than some of these and he has a few races where he relaxes from off the pace and came with a run. My mind is open to the possibility that we have not YET seen his best and that this race at this distance and these circumstances could be a legit opportunity for him to improve. I look for him to be a handful of lengths off the pace early and i am willing to give him a chance to revert back to a running style that better suits him.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Closers from mid pack or deeper:
Slim Pickens here and I'm not sold any of these are even fast/good enough to get ALL the way up unless this thing just totally collapses but maybe in 3rd or 4th:
Commanding Curve We Miss Artie Medal Count Wicked Strong (i'm still iffy on him closing at 10F not just 9F) Ride on Curlin Intense Holiday (if they go back to prior style)
Update:
Artie - tossing.
Ride on Curlin - tossing.
Medal Count - iffy not sure yet. A lot to ask this many spins jammed in.
Commanding Curve - probably using in exotics.
Wicked strong - tossing
Intense Holiday - I was intrigued by this horse prior to the La Derby and I am coming back around on him. I take the ooohing and aahing of the works with a grain of salt but I do take very seriously recency/fitness/health. he's bred a lot better than some of these and he has a few races where he relaxes from off the pace and came with a run. My mind is open to the possibility that we have not YET seen his best and that this race at this distance and these circumstances could be a legit opportunity for him to improve. I look for him to be a handful of lengths off the pace early and i am willing to give him a chance to revert back to a running style that better suits him.
Current sense of who I see projecting for their best in this race at this distance under these circumstances:
Hoppertunity General A Rod Constitution
This isn't my play or my bet but yuk a bit chalky at this point.
I've got Chrome on the edge of this group. I'm not tossing him but taking into consideration what he HAS done (rear view mirror) I'm not totally sold we will see his BEST in this race. I need to think about it more. You think he runs above a 107 at 10F? I'm not so sure. I can see the winner running 103ish here.
Update:
Constitution - out.
Hoppertunity - same.
A Rod - same. still think he fires big but might not be enough but I can't ignore him.
I'm well aware of Chrome. haven't made up my mind yet. I'm strongly leaning to that we will not see his best ever in this race but I could be wrong. I expect him to fire but I'm not sold he is a cinch at this distance under these circumstances and on a different surface.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Current sense of who I see projecting for their best in this race at this distance under these circumstances:
Hoppertunity General A Rod Constitution
This isn't my play or my bet but yuk a bit chalky at this point.
I've got Chrome on the edge of this group. I'm not tossing him but taking into consideration what he HAS done (rear view mirror) I'm not totally sold we will see his BEST in this race. I need to think about it more. You think he runs above a 107 at 10F? I'm not so sure. I can see the winner running 103ish here.
Update:
Constitution - out.
Hoppertunity - same.
A Rod - same. still think he fires big but might not be enough but I can't ignore him.
I'm well aware of Chrome. haven't made up my mind yet. I'm strongly leaning to that we will not see his best ever in this race but I could be wrong. I expect him to fire but I'm not sold he is a cinch at this distance under these circumstances and on a different surface.
In general I don't put too much into post positions unless the starting gate is quite close to the turn in a given configuration (5F on turf at GP comes to mind), an inexperienced horse is buried inside, or the running style and given post position presents a challenge.
In this race frankly i don't they should have more than 14 horses but it's all about the promotion and money. Post positions 1-6 are looking straight at the bend on the rail when they look straight ahead which isn't right to me but whatever. I don't like those posts but I won't toss strictly because of that.
Running style is important to me with posts in this race. If i like one as a good fit overall and he's in 19 or 20 then so be it. if someone likes a front runner and he's in 1-6 or in 15-20 then I would be worried if I were you. If I like one and he's in 1-6 it will depend on his style and who' next to him and how I feel about him ending up in a decent position.
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Post Positions:
In general I don't put too much into post positions unless the starting gate is quite close to the turn in a given configuration (5F on turf at GP comes to mind), an inexperienced horse is buried inside, or the running style and given post position presents a challenge.
In this race frankly i don't they should have more than 14 horses but it's all about the promotion and money. Post positions 1-6 are looking straight at the bend on the rail when they look straight ahead which isn't right to me but whatever. I don't like those posts but I won't toss strictly because of that.
Running style is important to me with posts in this race. If i like one as a good fit overall and he's in 19 or 20 then so be it. if someone likes a front runner and he's in 1-6 or in 15-20 then I would be worried if I were you. If I like one and he's in 1-6 it will depend on his style and who' next to him and how I feel about him ending up in a decent position.
Weather - who knows, always a wildcard. If it is fast, wet fast, or sloppy I will likely end up about the same. if it's muddy I have much lower confidence. Muddy has always been tricky to me.
Recency/Fitness/Health and Who Is Gonna Fire Their Best - I'll take another good look at these guys and try to be reasonable and rational with expectations.
I'll use Wildcat Red as an example. I look at him and I ask myself is he likely to be able to produce his best effort ever in this race at this distance under these circumstances??? Horses are not machines they are living creatures.
- he's already run four races this year and all four races required a maximum effort out of him essentially the entire race - can he YET AGAIN produce a tip top effort??? - has only one running style and it is very likely he's on the lead or up close having to use up energy the entire race - breeding does not support him improving going out to this distance
I look at him and it just doesn't seem rational to me that he would be able to come out with an improved, best ever performance on top of what he has already done. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he gets people excited for a chunk of the race but ultimately hits a wall and fades badly.
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couple other things I'll scrub again:
Weather - who knows, always a wildcard. If it is fast, wet fast, or sloppy I will likely end up about the same. if it's muddy I have much lower confidence. Muddy has always been tricky to me.
Recency/Fitness/Health and Who Is Gonna Fire Their Best - I'll take another good look at these guys and try to be reasonable and rational with expectations.
I'll use Wildcat Red as an example. I look at him and I ask myself is he likely to be able to produce his best effort ever in this race at this distance under these circumstances??? Horses are not machines they are living creatures.
- he's already run four races this year and all four races required a maximum effort out of him essentially the entire race - can he YET AGAIN produce a tip top effort??? - has only one running style and it is very likely he's on the lead or up close having to use up energy the entire race - breeding does not support him improving going out to this distance
I look at him and it just doesn't seem rational to me that he would be able to come out with an improved, best ever performance on top of what he has already done. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he gets people excited for a chunk of the race but ultimately hits a wall and fades badly.
Now that Commanding Curve is in, he deserves your exotic look. Has a win over CD and lost all chance at the start of the LAD where he rallied to get third. Besides I've got him at boxcars in a dumb, drunk futures bet. Good stuff, Atlas-keep it going.
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Now that Commanding Curve is in, he deserves your exotic look. Has a win over CD and lost all chance at the start of the LAD where he rallied to get third. Besides I've got him at boxcars in a dumb, drunk futures bet. Good stuff, Atlas-keep it going.
Now that Commanding Curve is in, he deserves your exotic look. Has a win over CD and lost all chance at the start of the LAD where he rallied to get third. Besides I've got him at boxcars in a dumb, drunk futures bet. Good stuff, Atlas-keep it going.
Yeah I think he gets played a little here based on his potential to possibly pick up some pieces late. Fortunately getting played in a 20 horse field with a 5/2 fav means he might be 25/1ish but I don't see him 40/1 or higher. people will notice his potential role in this particular race and situation.
good luck with that futures play tiger
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Quote Originally Posted by Tygermyke:
Now that Commanding Curve is in, he deserves your exotic look. Has a win over CD and lost all chance at the start of the LAD where he rallied to get third. Besides I've got him at boxcars in a dumb, drunk futures bet. Good stuff, Atlas-keep it going.
Yeah I think he gets played a little here based on his potential to possibly pick up some pieces late. Fortunately getting played in a 20 horse field with a 5/2 fav means he might be 25/1ish but I don't see him 40/1 or higher. people will notice his potential role in this particular race and situation.
Ok, here's how I'm looking at this guy. the entire planet knows he will be the fav and frankly I think he's a legitimate fav and should be the fav. I want to emphasize I am not knocking him and he certainly could win and I understand that.
The main question I keep asking myself is will we see his best ever in THIS RACE or have we possibly already seen his best ever? How likely is it will he beat 108/107 in this race, under these circumstances, at this distance, and on this surface? You know I look at that and with ten lifetime spins under his belt, the last two races way out of pattern, and the inevitable force of Variance and I just can't jump on board enthusiastically especially at 5/2.
He may win and that's cool if he does but there is a ton of Variance in thoroughbred racing. I'm not tossing him and I'll likely use him in a tribox. I won't bet him to WP and I'll toss him from a P4 if I play that which depends on the sequence of races and the Wise Dan race circumstances. If I play a super I won't key him on top but will have him in 3rd/4th. Racing is a brutal game and nothing is free and I'll roll the dice that perhaps we've already seen his best and some others could still show us more.
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California Chrome:
Ok, here's how I'm looking at this guy. the entire planet knows he will be the fav and frankly I think he's a legitimate fav and should be the fav. I want to emphasize I am not knocking him and he certainly could win and I understand that.
The main question I keep asking myself is will we see his best ever in THIS RACE or have we possibly already seen his best ever? How likely is it will he beat 108/107 in this race, under these circumstances, at this distance, and on this surface? You know I look at that and with ten lifetime spins under his belt, the last two races way out of pattern, and the inevitable force of Variance and I just can't jump on board enthusiastically especially at 5/2.
He may win and that's cool if he does but there is a ton of Variance in thoroughbred racing. I'm not tossing him and I'll likely use him in a tribox. I won't bet him to WP and I'll toss him from a P4 if I play that which depends on the sequence of races and the Wise Dan race circumstances. If I play a super I won't key him on top but will have him in 3rd/4th. Racing is a brutal game and nothing is free and I'll roll the dice that perhaps we've already seen his best and some others could still show us more.
It's really does suck that the P4 payouts will be killed by Wise Dan. I've seen that there are only 6 probables for the Woodford. Was 7 but Little Mike withdrew
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It's really does suck that the P4 payouts will be killed by Wise Dan. I've seen that there are only 6 probables for the Woodford. Was 7 but Little Mike withdrew
Great my phone only allowing me to read partial page because of advertisements. I have great money idea, invent phones that block advertisements. I think I can speak for most gamblers we don't come here on purpose or accident to see what f*ckin advertisements covers has. Embarrassing
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Great my phone only allowing me to read partial page because of advertisements. I have great money idea, invent phones that block advertisements. I think I can speak for most gamblers we don't come here on purpose or accident to see what f*ckin advertisements covers has. Embarrassing
It's really does suck that the P4 payouts will be killed by Wise Dan. I've seen that there are only 6 probables for the Woodford. Was 7 but Little Mike withdrew
yeah a shame. G1 on the green and only six in the entire world willing. this P4 has four consecutive graded stakes, a giant pool size, and despite the absurd rake could be worth a look. if I can try a higher dollar ticket at 2x2x1x3 then I might take a shot. I might even use more horses I don't know yet as I haven't seen anything on these other three races.
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Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:
It's really does suck that the P4 payouts will be killed by Wise Dan. I've seen that there are only 6 probables for the Woodford. Was 7 but Little Mike withdrew
yeah a shame. G1 on the green and only six in the entire world willing. this P4 has four consecutive graded stakes, a giant pool size, and despite the absurd rake could be worth a look. if I can try a higher dollar ticket at 2x2x1x3 then I might take a shot. I might even use more horses I don't know yet as I haven't seen anything on these other three races.
How can horses b tossed when we don't know the weather, jockey (this sometimes predict running sttyle) , diff in weight ( 2-4 lbs), post position and date of last breeze (I have notice many horses with the most recent breezes r in top 5 for past 4 yrs).
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How can horses b tossed when we don't know the weather, jockey (this sometimes predict running sttyle) , diff in weight ( 2-4 lbs), post position and date of last breeze (I have notice many horses with the most recent breezes r in top 5 for past 4 yrs).
Atlas - who do you like as your top 3 horses for a trifecta? Also which horse would you consider your top dark horse who could make a splash?
Obviously this is all pending the poll positions which we should get in a few hours
if you check above i've been leaning to a few.
for a big bomb i suppose Commanding Curve. though please note it is VERY possible he just isn't fast enough but if this thing falls apart he could potentially get up. when I say bomb in this twenty horse field size I mean 30/1 or up. there's a few that are intriguing and could be in the 15/1 to 20/1 zone.
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Quote Originally Posted by bfritz:
Atlas - who do you like as your top 3 horses for a trifecta? Also which horse would you consider your top dark horse who could make a splash?
Obviously this is all pending the poll positions which we should get in a few hours
if you check above i've been leaning to a few.
for a big bomb i suppose Commanding Curve. though please note it is VERY possible he just isn't fast enough but if this thing falls apart he could potentially get up. when I say bomb in this twenty horse field size I mean 30/1 or up. there's a few that are intriguing and could be in the 15/1 to 20/1 zone.
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