- this horse almost won the Risen Star to get the bulk of his points and looks like he might stay in with his 34 points. in my opinion he fell into a very easy lead and pace and to his credit he almost stole that race
- looks to me like a scenario where the trainer is squeezing as much as he possibly can out of this fella. AWD of daddy is merely 3/4s. first three lifetime spins were slow 6F moves
- ran a fairly well beaten 4th in the LA Derby and was not moving sharply late
- does not appear to me to have an improving pattern that sets him up to launch his best in this race at 10F under these circumstances
bottom line: i'm tossing. i can see a scenario where this horse is soundly defeated.
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Albano:
- this horse almost won the Risen Star to get the bulk of his points and looks like he might stay in with his 34 points. in my opinion he fell into a very easy lead and pace and to his credit he almost stole that race
- looks to me like a scenario where the trainer is squeezing as much as he possibly can out of this fella. AWD of daddy is merely 3/4s. first three lifetime spins were slow 6F moves
- ran a fairly well beaten 4th in the LA Derby and was not moving sharply late
- does not appear to me to have an improving pattern that sets him up to launch his best in this race at 10F under these circumstances
bottom line: i'm tossing. i can see a scenario where this horse is soundly defeated.
- hard to knock a guy that literally fires every single time and runs his eyeballs out
- am i the only one that thinks he may have topped out at 100ish and thinking it might be a long shot that ON TOP OF his four straight hard efforts this year he will yet again find a way to reach a new top?
- blood says distance from daddy's side a huge question mark but better stamina/distance from mommy yet he keeps firing
- i look at this pattern and i see a horse that i expect to get out there early, run hard with maximum effort, and most likely reach a point in deep stretch where he starts to soften up
bottom line: he's pretty competitive on figs. he fires every single time. yet, i'm inclined to toss him because i'm not convinced he can dig deep enough to come out with his best ever in this race at this distance under these circumstances. i wouldn't be surprised to see him fighting until that last sixteenth and also wouldn't be surprised to see all of his rigorous activity so far this year catching up to him with him folding up late
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Wildcat Red:
- hard to knock a guy that literally fires every single time and runs his eyeballs out
- am i the only one that thinks he may have topped out at 100ish and thinking it might be a long shot that ON TOP OF his four straight hard efforts this year he will yet again find a way to reach a new top?
- blood says distance from daddy's side a huge question mark but better stamina/distance from mommy yet he keeps firing
- i look at this pattern and i see a horse that i expect to get out there early, run hard with maximum effort, and most likely reach a point in deep stretch where he starts to soften up
bottom line: he's pretty competitive on figs. he fires every single time. yet, i'm inclined to toss him because i'm not convinced he can dig deep enough to come out with his best ever in this race at this distance under these circumstances. i wouldn't be surprised to see him fighting until that last sixteenth and also wouldn't be surprised to see all of his rigorous activity so far this year catching up to him with him folding up late
Atlass ...speed fig does not show tactical speed nor a horses ability to maneuver in traffic and got it done. Go watch spectacular bid in Florida derby. I think its 1989.
thks
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Atlass ...speed fig does not show tactical speed nor a horses ability to maneuver in traffic and got it done. Go watch spectacular bid in Florida derby. I think its 1989.
Atlass ...speed fig does not show tactical speed nor a horses ability to maneuver in traffic and got it done. Go watch spectacular bid in Florida derby. I think its 1989.
thks
i'm not sure what you are implying or suggesting and I don't want to assume. can you clarify? thanks.
i never said speed figs are perfect in fact i said just the opposite in this thread and many times before in this forum. i agree shiftiness, athleticism, grit, determination, and character are quite important. i use replays for that and the PPs. one reason why i am tossing Vicar's in Trouble. I can't see him digging in and passing horses and I don't see him waltzing up front on an easy lead. if all they need to do is be athletic and shifty then just find some of those in a CLM125000N2L and stick em in a G1 and see what happens. i'd be shocked if in addition to being very gifted and athletic spectacular bid did not also have the strongest or among the strongest speed figs or whatever is comparable to look back it amongst his peers.
who do you see running well in this race and why?
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Quote Originally Posted by punta:
Atlass ...speed fig does not show tactical speed nor a horses ability to maneuver in traffic and got it done. Go watch spectacular bid in Florida derby. I think its 1989.
thks
i'm not sure what you are implying or suggesting and I don't want to assume. can you clarify? thanks.
i never said speed figs are perfect in fact i said just the opposite in this thread and many times before in this forum. i agree shiftiness, athleticism, grit, determination, and character are quite important. i use replays for that and the PPs. one reason why i am tossing Vicar's in Trouble. I can't see him digging in and passing horses and I don't see him waltzing up front on an easy lead. if all they need to do is be athletic and shifty then just find some of those in a CLM125000N2L and stick em in a G1 and see what happens. i'd be shocked if in addition to being very gifted and athletic spectacular bid did not also have the strongest or among the strongest speed figs or whatever is comparable to look back it amongst his peers.
- hypocrite alert: i know i am skeptical of those oaklawn races so far but even with that i kinda like this guy. i like how much improvement he showed in that last race and most importantly i liked how he seemed to be looking for more distance as the race went on
- looked like he did it somewhat easily with more in the tank (i know there was bumping)
- baffert can get them fit and cranked
- extremely intriguing blood here the tree implies he might be able to run a long ways
bottom line: he's got a tough choice here to wheel back quick against tougher donkeys or wait and try to pop huge in louisville. i'm pretty interested.
Update:
I saw that this horse will run in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. he's coming back quick for this and I guess Baffert opted for this instead of training him straight up to the Derby or trying the Arkansas Derby. You could say he's dodging Bayern or since Bayern literally must get the points you could say he's taking away the chance that this horse runs by Bayern in the lane. Who knows you'd have to ask him. I figure if he's running this weekend he must feel like he's fit and ready.
Interesting race. Can anyone close on that surface on Saturday? Should be an interesting evaluation of Candy Boy and Hoppertunity in that regard. Where in the hell did California Chrome find that last race? I'm getting more skeptical as each day passes. That race is so far out of his pattern for a horse with several spins already. if he does it again I tip my cap but i doubt it.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Hoppertunity:
- hypocrite alert: i know i am skeptical of those oaklawn races so far but even with that i kinda like this guy. i like how much improvement he showed in that last race and most importantly i liked how he seemed to be looking for more distance as the race went on
- looked like he did it somewhat easily with more in the tank (i know there was bumping)
- baffert can get them fit and cranked
- extremely intriguing blood here the tree implies he might be able to run a long ways
bottom line: he's got a tough choice here to wheel back quick against tougher donkeys or wait and try to pop huge in louisville. i'm pretty interested.
Update:
I saw that this horse will run in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. he's coming back quick for this and I guess Baffert opted for this instead of training him straight up to the Derby or trying the Arkansas Derby. You could say he's dodging Bayern or since Bayern literally must get the points you could say he's taking away the chance that this horse runs by Bayern in the lane. Who knows you'd have to ask him. I figure if he's running this weekend he must feel like he's fit and ready.
Interesting race. Can anyone close on that surface on Saturday? Should be an interesting evaluation of Candy Boy and Hoppertunity in that regard. Where in the hell did California Chrome find that last race? I'm getting more skeptical as each day passes. That race is so far out of his pattern for a horse with several spins already. if he does it again I tip my cap but i doubt it.
- think he wold have shown more if he had more last out off the long layoff. he wasn't terrible but let's face it he was trounced on paper.
- i took the bait with a small play thinking at the same a modest group and he would be a juicy price and run hard late but he didn't really make up any ground.
- possible he takes a huge step forward this weekend but i'm not seeing it. who knows. i don't have all the much to say about him he's a big unknown.
bottom line: wild card. i'm not betting him this week i already fell for him and i'm not convinced he'll improve enough to win this race against better going longer.
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Quote Originally Posted by Roused:
Schoolofhardrocks
forgot about him, thanks. i see he's in Saturday.
Schoolofhardrocks:
- think he wold have shown more if he had more last out off the long layoff. he wasn't terrible but let's face it he was trounced on paper.
- i took the bait with a small play thinking at the same a modest group and he would be a juicy price and run hard late but he didn't really make up any ground.
- possible he takes a huge step forward this weekend but i'm not seeing it. who knows. i don't have all the much to say about him he's a big unknown.
bottom line: wild card. i'm not betting him this week i already fell for him and i'm not convinced he'll improve enough to win this race against better going longer.
Anybody have any horses that they think are setting up for a big one?
I did this intentionally before the last preps so I could see my thought process heading into those and what the last prep race does to confirm or deny it. maybe it will help me be more rational about it though i realize i might sound negative on a lot of them. the fact is half of them will probably run up the track. it's a war not a little kiddies pizza party.
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Anybody have any horses that they think are setting up for a big one?
I did this intentionally before the last preps so I could see my thought process heading into those and what the last prep race does to confirm or deny it. maybe it will help me be more rational about it though i realize i might sound negative on a lot of them. the fact is half of them will probably run up the track. it's a war not a little kiddies pizza party.
Commissioner i think is very capable, hes only had 1 bad race and already has 2 wins at 1 1/8 also beat the highly regarded Top Billing before he got sidelined. Casse seemed very unhappy with the ride CT got in the Tampa Bay derby made the switch to Borel. I was just interested to get your take on both. Thanks
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Commissioner i think is very capable, hes only had 1 bad race and already has 2 wins at 1 1/8 also beat the highly regarded Top Billing before he got sidelined. Casse seemed very unhappy with the ride CT got in the Tampa Bay derby made the switch to Borel. I was just interested to get your take on both. Thanks
Tough to get a handle at the moment. Just trying to gather my thoughts. Four on shortlist:
INtense Holiday Cairo Prince Midnight HAwk Strong Mandate
Going to need a few days to digest everything. Actually passed on California Chrome yesterday at 12/1!! One of the British bookies slow to react to Santa Anita Derby but not buying it. 6f winner at 2 and looks bred for speed. Could've taken it but going to take my time on this and in no hurry to get involved as I'm behind on this race in terms of research. GL all.
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Tough to get a handle at the moment. Just trying to gather my thoughts. Four on shortlist:
INtense Holiday Cairo Prince Midnight HAwk Strong Mandate
Going to need a few days to digest everything. Actually passed on California Chrome yesterday at 12/1!! One of the British bookies slow to react to Santa Anita Derby but not buying it. 6f winner at 2 and looks bred for speed. Could've taken it but going to take my time on this and in no hurry to get involved as I'm behind on this race in terms of research. GL all.
- this guy on the surface creates intrigue due to the two wins at 9F on dirt and I understand why that is relevant
- last two spins stepping up he really hasn't fired and had nothing to offer late
- regressing on figs
- what concerns me the most is what i see in the comments and what happened after that. he popped his cherry it says "driven 3w into lane, up" and he won by a head. that tells me it took a lot of effort to get that done. his next spin at GP it says "all out, prevailed" and that was at 9F. these are red flags to me. the two spins that followed he was very modest at best. though the blood implies he can go long i'm not sure he has the gas in the tank if he's "all out" to win an allowance race
bottom line: wild card. he's like pletcher's horse harpoon in the wood to me. seems like they are putting him in these races to see if he wakes up all of a sudden. maybe he will. i have no idea how to determine if/when he does. the data suggests he isn't projecting to a big one but there's always variance in this game.
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Commissioner:
- this guy on the surface creates intrigue due to the two wins at 9F on dirt and I understand why that is relevant
- last two spins stepping up he really hasn't fired and had nothing to offer late
- regressing on figs
- what concerns me the most is what i see in the comments and what happened after that. he popped his cherry it says "driven 3w into lane, up" and he won by a head. that tells me it took a lot of effort to get that done. his next spin at GP it says "all out, prevailed" and that was at 9F. these are red flags to me. the two spins that followed he was very modest at best. though the blood implies he can go long i'm not sure he has the gas in the tank if he's "all out" to win an allowance race
bottom line: wild card. he's like pletcher's horse harpoon in the wood to me. seems like they are putting him in these races to see if he wakes up all of a sudden. maybe he will. i have no idea how to determine if/when he does. the data suggests he isn't projecting to a big one but there's always variance in this game.
Now some horses. I'm saying this before the Florida Derby, SA Derby, Wood, LA Derby, Arkansas Derby, and the Blue Grass so if I like something now it's not a bet or "my pick" and I don't care about being wrong. feel free to use all the emoticons to mock me if something that interests me now doesn't look all that good over the next couple weeks or if a horse i don't like looks like a stud.
California Chrome:
- tough for me to completely ignore a guy that popped 107 winning a G2 at SA. track was kind to early zip that day but this guy looked tremendous. in fact he looked fabulous.
- hasn't shown anything beyond 8.5F
- other races on figs are modest at best though he does appear versatile
- where did that race come from looks like it came out of the blue? pattern is not consistent.
- breeding implies he could be gasping for air next week in Arcadia late in the lane as the peeps up top and sibs are sprint heavy. this is merely a possible projection and breeding has a lot of variance
Bottom line: let's see what he does in the SA Derby at 9F against considerably better than he saw last out. if he looks good there who am i to knock him. if his fig drops off there notably i'll likely toss him in louisville.
update:
- paired up his top fig yesterday in a G1, has run back to back 107 figs now. obviously he has really sprung to life in a very big way in the last two months
- visually to me he clearly looks the best of these in the way that he does it. horse looks smooth and well within himself.
- if he isn't buried in post positions 1-6 and the track is dry and fast he'll prolly be 7/2 and i'm not tossing him but probably would only use him as a key on top of a tri/super but that's just my personal style. could definitely win.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Now some horses. I'm saying this before the Florida Derby, SA Derby, Wood, LA Derby, Arkansas Derby, and the Blue Grass so if I like something now it's not a bet or "my pick" and I don't care about being wrong. feel free to use all the emoticons to mock me if something that interests me now doesn't look all that good over the next couple weeks or if a horse i don't like looks like a stud.
California Chrome:
- tough for me to completely ignore a guy that popped 107 winning a G2 at SA. track was kind to early zip that day but this guy looked tremendous. in fact he looked fabulous.
- hasn't shown anything beyond 8.5F
- other races on figs are modest at best though he does appear versatile
- where did that race come from looks like it came out of the blue? pattern is not consistent.
- breeding implies he could be gasping for air next week in Arcadia late in the lane as the peeps up top and sibs are sprint heavy. this is merely a possible projection and breeding has a lot of variance
Bottom line: let's see what he does in the SA Derby at 9F against considerably better than he saw last out. if he looks good there who am i to knock him. if his fig drops off there notably i'll likely toss him in louisville.
update:
- paired up his top fig yesterday in a G1, has run back to back 107 figs now. obviously he has really sprung to life in a very big way in the last two months
- visually to me he clearly looks the best of these in the way that he does it. horse looks smooth and well within himself.
- if he isn't buried in post positions 1-6 and the track is dry and fast he'll prolly be 7/2 and i'm not tossing him but probably would only use him as a key on top of a tri/super but that's just my personal style. could definitely win.
- now i'm being realistic and the blood/tree is a little bit of a stretch. daddy did most of his damage at 8F or so but did run a brilliant pacific Classic winning at 10F. mommy not so much stamina but mommy's daddy once held the belmont track record at 10F. it's debatable but possible he'll handle the 10F prolly more likely if it is not muddy
- like the fact that he handled two different surfaces. he ran 2nd to the 2YO champ out in Inglewood in a G1 in his second spin (granted he was a distant second but showed a lot of improvement) and then came to Arcadia and won on dirt
- speed fig on dirt in first start as a 3YO jumped over both figs as a 2YO (barely but up nonetheless)
- some criticize his too cozy trip but i really liked the way he looked last out. he was moving very easily behind a 1;10ish clip and then just glided by easily in the stretch looking like he wants more
- like his reverse recency he's very fresh and rested could run big next week and still have more to run big in louisville
bottom line: he flops next week in Arcadia and i look foolish . . . . . . but he might look pretty good as well. looks like he can stay well within range and then just try to fire home down that long louisville stretch. need to see him raise his fig above 100 preferably and be moving with energy late in this SA Derby.
update:
- obviously he struggled when he needed to kick it in late at 9F
- regressed at best on figs here
- does not appear to be projecting to his best ever going out to 10F IF he gets in the race
- i'll probably toss
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Candy Boy:
- as of this moment he would be my top selection
- now i'm being realistic and the blood/tree is a little bit of a stretch. daddy did most of his damage at 8F or so but did run a brilliant pacific Classic winning at 10F. mommy not so much stamina but mommy's daddy once held the belmont track record at 10F. it's debatable but possible he'll handle the 10F prolly more likely if it is not muddy
- like the fact that he handled two different surfaces. he ran 2nd to the 2YO champ out in Inglewood in a G1 in his second spin (granted he was a distant second but showed a lot of improvement) and then came to Arcadia and won on dirt
- speed fig on dirt in first start as a 3YO jumped over both figs as a 2YO (barely but up nonetheless)
- some criticize his too cozy trip but i really liked the way he looked last out. he was moving very easily behind a 1;10ish clip and then just glided by easily in the stretch looking like he wants more
- like his reverse recency he's very fresh and rested could run big next week and still have more to run big in louisville
bottom line: he flops next week in Arcadia and i look foolish . . . . . . but he might look pretty good as well. looks like he can stay well within range and then just try to fire home down that long louisville stretch. need to see him raise his fig above 100 preferably and be moving with energy late in this SA Derby.
update:
- obviously he struggled when he needed to kick it in late at 9F
- regressed at best on figs here
- does not appear to be projecting to his best ever going out to 10F IF he gets in the race
- hypocrite alert: i know i am skeptical of those oaklawn races so far but even with that i kinda like this guy. i like how much improvement he showed in that last race and most importantly i liked how he seemed to be looking for more distance as the race went on
- looked like he did it somewhat easily with more in the tank (i know there was bumping)
- baffert can get them fit and cranked
- extremely intriguing blood here the tree implies he might be able to run a long ways
bottom line: he's got a tough choice here to wheel back quick against tougher donkeys or wait and try to pop huge in louisville. i'm pretty interested.
update:
- came back off three weeks rest yesterday into a G1 at 9F and i thought his race was somewhat solid
- don't think he was fully cranked for that race yesterday
- i still like this guy and think he still has the potential to pop his best ever at 10F next out with four weeks to freshen up a little and get cranked up, especially if there is pace pressure up in front of him
- would love to see this guy at 20/1 or higher but maybe that's a dream
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Hoppertunity:
- hypocrite alert: i know i am skeptical of those oaklawn races so far but even with that i kinda like this guy. i like how much improvement he showed in that last race and most importantly i liked how he seemed to be looking for more distance as the race went on
- looked like he did it somewhat easily with more in the tank (i know there was bumping)
- baffert can get them fit and cranked
- extremely intriguing blood here the tree implies he might be able to run a long ways
bottom line: he's got a tough choice here to wheel back quick against tougher donkeys or wait and try to pop huge in louisville. i'm pretty interested.
update:
- came back off three weeks rest yesterday into a G1 at 9F and i thought his race was somewhat solid
- don't think he was fully cranked for that race yesterday
- i still like this guy and think he still has the potential to pop his best ever at 10F next out with four weeks to freshen up a little and get cranked up, especially if there is pace pressure up in front of him
- would love to see this guy at 20/1 or higher but maybe that's a dream
brother all we can do is try to use the data in a reasonable way and try to make the best decisions we can and always risk a lot less than you can potentially get back in a race relative to the opportunity presented.
Variance
Taxes
Takeout
Prices hammered down in the last couple minutes of wagering
Phew, glad i don't play all that often
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Great work in here buddy
brother all we can do is try to use the data in a reasonable way and try to make the best decisions we can and always risk a lot less than you can potentially get back in a race relative to the opportunity presented.
Variance
Taxes
Takeout
Prices hammered down in the last couple minutes of wagering
I had a feeling all along that the Derby winner might come out of the Arkansas Derby, but after watching California Chrome yesterday, I'm not so sure.
Having said this, there IS a horse out of an Arkansas race that I believe has a legit shot to win in a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby, and that's HOPPORTUNITY...assuming Baffert puts him in the field.
He can get the distance and he is likely to get the pace on that day with a rate. Even better, if Mike Smith rides. He is a no -toss for me.
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I had a feeling all along that the Derby winner might come out of the Arkansas Derby, but after watching California Chrome yesterday, I'm not so sure.
Having said this, there IS a horse out of an Arkansas race that I believe has a legit shot to win in a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby, and that's HOPPORTUNITY...assuming Baffert puts him in the field.
He can get the distance and he is likely to get the pace on that day with a rate. Even better, if Mike Smith rides. He is a no -toss for me.
- i know he only has two spins but i find this guy to be extremely intriguing. hey any fella that absolutely romps like that first out around one turn then next out at 8.5F and two turns and gets a 111 is going to grab my attention
- clearly GP has been kind to early speed/pace and he hasn't faced all that much so far
- gets acid test at NYRA on the outer main track and going 9F but he could have it his own way if he fires up front there or chilly in a stalk and pounce
- blood suggests the distance/stamina could be there as well
bottom line: needs a win or place in the Wood likely to enter the Derby with a legit shot but if this guy looks solid winning the Wood how can you toss him? on figs he looks pretty dangerous. of course he could flop next weekend as well but who knows maybe he's simply a talented runner.
Update: i thought he ran a pretty admirable race in the Wood considering the circumstances. he had to hustle up from a tough slot to grab the lead, picked it up a bit gliding through the 6F in 1:11 and change, tried to open up and got tired. like the way he looks in his movement. i'll toss if he gets in the Derby but I would strongly consider him in the preakness if he doesn't get in and can freshen up a bit and point to that. i wouldn't consider him a fluke just yet.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
Social Inclusion:
- i know he only has two spins but i find this guy to be extremely intriguing. hey any fella that absolutely romps like that first out around one turn then next out at 8.5F and two turns and gets a 111 is going to grab my attention
- clearly GP has been kind to early speed/pace and he hasn't faced all that much so far
- gets acid test at NYRA on the outer main track and going 9F but he could have it his own way if he fires up front there or chilly in a stalk and pounce
- blood suggests the distance/stamina could be there as well
bottom line: needs a win or place in the Wood likely to enter the Derby with a legit shot but if this guy looks solid winning the Wood how can you toss him? on figs he looks pretty dangerous. of course he could flop next weekend as well but who knows maybe he's simply a talented runner.
Update: i thought he ran a pretty admirable race in the Wood considering the circumstances. he had to hustle up from a tough slot to grab the lead, picked it up a bit gliding through the 6F in 1:11 and change, tried to open up and got tired. like the way he looks in his movement. i'll toss if he gets in the Derby but I would strongly consider him in the preakness if he doesn't get in and can freshen up a bit and point to that. i wouldn't consider him a fluke just yet.
I had a feeling all along that the Derby winner might come out of the Arkansas Derby, but after watching California Chrome yesterday, I'm not so sure.
Having said this, there IS a horse out of an Arkansas race that I believe has a legit shot to win in a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby, and that's HOPPORTUNITY...assuming Baffert puts him in the field.
He can get the distance and he is likely to get the pace on that day with a rate. Even better, if Mike Smith rides. He is a no -toss for me.
Watch the gallop out ! You will be even more impressed by Hopp
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Quote Originally Posted by mikeyp1:
I had a feeling all along that the Derby winner might come out of the Arkansas Derby, but after watching California Chrome yesterday, I'm not so sure.
Having said this, there IS a horse out of an Arkansas race that I believe has a legit shot to win in a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby, and that's HOPPORTUNITY...assuming Baffert puts him in the field.
He can get the distance and he is likely to get the pace on that day with a rate. Even better, if Mike Smith rides. He is a no -toss for me.
Watch the gallop out ! You will be even more impressed by Hopp
- had a pattern going that lead me to believe he might evolve into a potential bomb from well off the pace
- hasn't really improved as a 3YO versus his 2YO races though I understand his 2nd and a 4th in graded events might look "not that bad"
- looked like in the HB he passed some horses that folded up and he finished very evenly at Tampa
- doesn't appear to be projecting forward to his best ever but you never know
bottom line: if he's got something it should come out in the Arkansas Derby or else just may be he is what he is. he gets more distance and should have at least some pace in front of him. people seem to think all the Birdstones go long but the numbers don't support that. find out this Saturday where he belongs. i personally wouldn't bet him.
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Conquest Titan:
- had a pattern going that lead me to believe he might evolve into a potential bomb from well off the pace
- hasn't really improved as a 3YO versus his 2YO races though I understand his 2nd and a 4th in graded events might look "not that bad"
- looked like in the HB he passed some horses that folded up and he finished very evenly at Tampa
- doesn't appear to be projecting forward to his best ever but you never know
bottom line: if he's got something it should come out in the Arkansas Derby or else just may be he is what he is. he gets more distance and should have at least some pace in front of him. people seem to think all the Birdstones go long but the numbers don't support that. find out this Saturday where he belongs. i personally wouldn't bet him.
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GL today bud
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