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G1 Kentucky Derby 3YO 10F - 5/3/2014 (Churchill Downs)

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:


which one?  social inclusion?

Yep. Watch videos of each back to back.

Real interested to see him in wood. Your analysis was spot on. Super intriguing horse
 
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Posted: #27
He stacks up extremely well on speed/pace.  we shall see.  
 
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Posted: #28
Candy Boy:


- as of this moment he would be my top selection
- now i'm being realistic and the blood/tree is a little bit of a stretch.  daddy did most of his damage at 8F or so but did run a brilliant pacific Classic winning at 10F.  mommy not so much stamina but mommy's daddy once held the belmont track record at 10F.  it's debatable but possible he'll handle the 10F prolly more likely if it is not muddy
- like the fact that he handled two different surfaces.  he ran 2nd to the 2YO champ out in Inglewood in a G1 in his second spin (granted he was a distant second but showed a lot of improvement) and then came to Arcadia and won on dirt
- speed fig on dirt in first start as a 3YO jumped over both figs as a 2YO (barely but up nonetheless)
- some criticize his too cozy trip but i really liked the way he looked last out.  he was moving very easily behind a 1;10ish clip and then just glided by easily in the stretch looking like he wants more
- like his reverse recency he's very fresh and rested could run big next week and still have more to run big in louisville

bottom line: he flops next week in Arcadia and i look foolish . . . . . . but he might look pretty good as well.  looks like he can stay well within range and then just try to fire home down that long louisville stretch.  need to see him raise his fig above 100 preferably and be moving with energy late in this SA Derby.     
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

Candy Boy:


- as of this moment he would be my top selection
- now i'm being realistic and the blood/tree is a little bit of a stretch.  daddy did most of his damage at 8F or so but did run a brilliant pacific Classic winning at 10F.  mommy not so much stamina but mommy's daddy once held the belmont track record at 10F.  it's debatable but possible he'll handle the 10F prolly more likely if it is not muddy
- like the fact that he handled two different surfaces.  he ran 2nd to the 2YO champ out in Inglewood in a G1 in his second spin (granted he was a distant second but showed a lot of improvement) and then came to Arcadia and won on dirt
- speed fig on dirt in first start as a 3YO jumped over both figs as a 2YO (barely but up nonetheless)
- some criticize his too cozy trip but i really liked the way he looked last out.  he was moving very easily behind a 1;10ish clip and then just glided by easily in the stretch looking like he wants more
- like his reverse recency he's very fresh and rested could run big next week and still have more to run big in louisville

bottom line: he flops next week in Arcadia and i look foolish . . . . . . but he might look pretty good as well.  looks like he can stay well within range and then just try to fire home down that long louisville stretch.  need to see him raise his fig above 100 preferably and be moving with energy late in this SA Derby.     


This is and interesting horse.  He just ate up the dirt and pulled away from Chitu, although it was a fast pace up front.  I have to wait and see what he does next time out.
 
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Posted: #30
Superb thread!!! :D From Racecaller: Statistical Derby winner profile

Recent Form

9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times in their career (exception was unbeaten in 3 starts)

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that year

10 of 10 winners won 1 of their first 2 starts as 2yo

9 of 10 winners had won at least twice

9 of 10 winners won a race over 7F to 1M 1/2F as a 2yo (exception was 6th in a grade 1 on only start over 7F+)

10 of 10 winners won over 1M to 1M 1F

8 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a graded stakes last time

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 112+ last time

10 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days

8 of 10 winners had won a graded stakes (2 exceptions were 2nd in a grade 1)

2 of 10 winners had won at Churchills Downs (other 8 having first course start)

2 of 2 winners that began their racing career on West Coast made their racecourse debut in a 5½F Hollywood Park maiden in July (both also ran in Santa Anita Derby on previous start)

7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 (2 others having first run in a grade 1)
- See more at: https://thesun.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/kentucky-derby-trends-2013-1367329629#sthash.5X64a9fk.dpufA

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Bred in Kentucky

·         Sired b a grade 1 winner over 1M to 1M 2F (ideally won the Travers)

·         Has a Dosage Index of approximately 2.27

·         Has a Centre Of Distribution of approximately 0.66

·         Had 4 to 8 career starts (won at least twice)

·         Run 2 to 4 times in 2013

·         Won a race over 7F to 1M ½F as a 2yo

·         Won over 1M to 1M 1F in their career

·         Finished in first 2 in a graded stakes in last 45 days

·         Posted an RPR of 112+ last time

·         Previously won a graded stakes

·         Finished in the first 2 in a grade 1

·         Course winner or having first run at Churchill Downs

·         Not drawn in stall 1

·         Finished in first 2 in Arkansas, Santa Anita or Florida Derby last time
 
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Posted: #31
Absolutely agree the race lacks a bit of hype for one "superstar" in waiting that would make the market. Usually when that happens, the best value are found in the ante-post markets. Will be working on this after Dubai.

European Classic season starts with Guineas on tap on the same day as your Kentucky Derby and our Derbys in June. Did I say great thread??? :D GL
 
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Posted: #32
Question: When you mention "he ran to a 100", is that 100 a Beyer rating or other speed figures?
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by giant_causeway:

Question: When you mention "he ran to a 100", is that 100 a Beyer rating or other speed figures?

I'm using Beyer figs and thorograph in some situations.  I didn't think any of the speed figs or performance figs are perfect by any means.  this is one reason why i mentioned how I use them.  i really just don't see how you can't use them.  there has to be same way to compare horses that are running at several different tracks on different surfaces.  the real question is who can run say 105+ in THIS RACE at THIS DISTANCE under these circumstances.  
 
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Posted: #34
Chitu:

- ok here is a good example of a few things.  you look on the surface and this guy looks like a legit contender.  he ran a 102 going 9F last out, has plenty of time to freshen up heading in, he fires every time seemingly, has baffert, and seems to be heading the right way
- also has a stalk and pounce style and/or is capable of being very close to the pace
- but when i watch that Sunland Derby i'm left thinking he was pretty close to "all in" there to prevail at 9F and he didn't exactly leave a group of hall of famers behind him.  that speed fig as well comes at a lower level circuit and with a handful of starts under his belt he did not run a fig like that previously.  i'm not convinced he is going to run another new top going out even further in distance.  candy boy ran by him pretty easily in a prior race and there are already horses that have run clearly faster than candy boy at this point as well
- blood/tree is not particularly supportive of running strong out to 10F

bottom line:  here's a horse that will likely be sent in fit and ready by a good trainer that can crank them up.  he has a pattern of firing and showing good effort.  the question is will he be good enough overall and have enough late in the lane to crack the super at the derby's distance?  i'm not sure.  i can see him in contention throughout and making noise at the top of the lane but i'm not so sure he'll be there when the dust settles.  
 
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Posted: #35
Samraat:

- tough to knock a horse that shows up every time, runs hard and with strong effort, and keeps winning
- all of his wins seem to be grinding efforts and he hasn't really run by horses easily late in the lane
- most of his noise on the Big A inner strip and not the main
- very consistent speed figs but not rising gradually so i'm left to wonder is this the best we will see from this guy or will he move forward?
- blood/tree suggests the 10F is possible primarily from daddy's side but iffy from mommy's side and inconclusive on the sibs

bottom line:  for me the Wood will tell me what i really need to know about this guy.  it certainly looks like he will run his race and try hard but is he good enough.  this 9F, switch to the main, and level of competition particularly with the gulfstream speedball coming in will tell me a lot.   
 
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Posted: #36
Intense Holiday:

- my mind is very open to the possibility that i like this horse a lot more after this weekend, but i could also completely toss him as well
- on figs showed meaningful improvement last out at FG running a 97.  also liked the way he did it sitting a couple lengths back and then putting in a long, sustained run to get up late.  but . . . . . . .  that was relative to races at that time there that are pretty low quality and why doesn't pletch send him to GP or AQ to see what he's made of????
- blood/tree implies 9F is well within his scope but the 10F might be a stretch (like most of these)

bottom line:  i might end up liking this guy.  i would need to see a pretty solid performance this weekend at the 9F against this somewhat modest group.  if he's finishing with zip and energy and runs a higher fig than last out he will have a pretty appealing pattern heading in.  
 
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Posted: #37
General A Rod:

- here's a guy I am very open to supporting if he can handle the distance
- he's fired every time, tries hard every time, and stays within close range and pounces in the lane
- he has an improving pattern and has clearly run faster as a 3YO than he did as a 2YO and faster as the distances increased
- blood is iffy going out to 10F

bottom line: i really need to see how he handles this 9F this weekend to see how he is moving late in the race.  blood says the 10F could be a struggle but that applies to most.  he's consistent and he can stalk and pounce.  i wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins the Florida Derby especially if he sits a tad bit off the pace. 
 
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Posted: #38
Uncle Sigh:

- here's another that on the surface i can't really knock him too much.  he's run fairly fast relative to the entire field and he has for sure fired all four times he's been out
- but, what i notice is that he seems to even out late a bit as he went out a little further in distance.  in his last two he was right there he simply didn't get it done.  i'm expecting this Wood Memorial to expose him a little bit on late speed and stamina but we shall see
- as stated above his pattern concerns me i don't see it building up to get better going out further.  could even end up running around one turn after the TC season
- never seen an Indian Charlie win big races beyond 9F or even 8.5F for whatever reason but his mommy's side does provide more stamina

bottom line:  as of right now I would toss.  he needs to surprise me a lot in the Wood which i don't expect.  i expect him to be up front or very close to the lead and to either fail to catch Social Inclusion or get gobbled up late but you never know. 
 
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Posted: #39
Midnight Hawk:

- runs hard every time, seems fit for Baffert, and he isn't way out of it by any means on figs
- i don't like him for this race at all as he looks worse as they go out further in distance.  he just seems to soften up late and flatten out
- blood is iffy for the 10F
- will probably fire and run hard and have a shot but i expect him to be all in late and struggling to keep going

bottom line:  i am tossing him.  to use him i have to expect that all of a sudden he will be looking for more distance and exploding late and that really runs contrary to his pattern and in my humble view he has had enough chances to show us otherwise.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

Cairo Prince:

- there are certainly legit reasons to like this guy.  he may have one of if not the best breeding for this among the prime contenders at least on paper
- came off the break and did indeed pop his fig in his first 3YO race above his 2YO spins
- seems to fire every time after debut which is appealing
- i actually quite like the fact that he took time off after the Holy Bull and now just has this one race before the Derby.  it's an intriguing pattern to possibly set him up for his best effort yet on Derby day
- but . . . . . . . . . . . . . i'm still skeptical.  i actually thought his races as a 2YO were pretty modest when i balance the figs versus times and competition and i don't think there was much behind him in the Holy Bull
- i'm curious if we have already seen close to his best like his daddy who flattened out early in his 3YO season

bottom line:  i know they aren't all hands on deck in the florida derby but if i had a future bet on him i would personally still want to see him run a faster race this weekend at this 9F than he did last out in the Holy Bull.  i know i'm being a bit picky but i still need to see more.  i'm not sold he is going to ultimately be fast enough.  i believe mcclaughlin will have him fit and ready but i need to see a fast race this weekend.

Update:  i was skeptical and in this instance it was warranted.  if this guy makes it in it is highly likely i will toss him.  i'm not a fan of the "well he wasn't cranked up just wait and see what he does next time" angle.  he had the entire stretch to run by those other three and he just didn't do it.  i don't think he's nearly as good as advertised.  
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

Intense Holiday:

- my mind is very open to the possibility that i like this horse a lot more after this weekend, but i could also completely toss him as well
- on figs showed meaningful improvement last out at FG running a 97.  also liked the way he did it sitting a couple lengths back and then putting in a long, sustained run to get up late.  but . . . . . . .  that was relative to races at that time there that are pretty low quality and why doesn't pletch send him to GP or AQ to see what he's made of????
- blood/tree implies 9F is well within his scope but the 10F might be a stretch (like most of these)

bottom line:  i might end up liking this guy.  i would need to see a pretty solid performance this weekend at the 9F against this somewhat modest group.  if he's finishing with zip and energy and runs a higher fig than last out he will have a pretty appealing pattern heading in.  

Update:  this one highlights a couple things for me.  the winner of the G2 for older same distance got a 114 which looks a tad inflated to me.  winner of LA Derby got a 97 so this guy prolly got about a 93.  i trust the numbers from this day more than his prior at FG even though they might still be a little inflated.  he didn't look like he wanted more ground and didn't finish with some zip like he did at a shorter distance.  now i like him a lot less and will probably toss.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

General A Rod:

- here's a guy I am very open to supporting if he can handle the distance
- he's fired every time, tries hard every time, and stays within close range and pounces in the lane
- he has an improving pattern and has clearly run faster as a 3YO than he did as a 2YO and faster as the distances increased
- blood is iffy going out to 10F

bottom line: i really need to see how he handles this 9F this weekend to see how he is moving late in the race.  blood says the 10F could be a struggle but that applies to most.  he's consistent and he can stalk and pounce.  i wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins the Florida Derby especially if he sits a tad bit off the pace. 

Update:  like this guy and have a lot of respect for his grit and determination and he certainly did not disgrace himself in the Florida Derby.  i probably can't support him stretching out even more in louisville.  tough to completely toss since he always shows up but he doesn't look to me like he's projecting forward to find his best ever at 10F.  
 
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Posted: #43
Yesterday I thought was actually good news if you want some potential juicy payouts in the tri and super for the Derby.  the last thing I want is 4 or 5 horses that all look like they are pretty logical choices to run well at this distance in this race because of course they will all be bet down and in every tri and super ticket.  the fact that both 9F races yesterday were not blazingly fast is good news imo.  the more questionable they look at 10F the more likely in my view some bombs can enter the equation.   pletcher's horse will probably be the new flavor of the month after the Florida Derby.  
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:


Update:  i was skeptical and in this instance it was warranted.  if this guy makes it in it is highly likely i will toss him.  i'm not a fan of the "well he wasn't cranked up just wait and see what he does next time" angle.  he had the entire stretch to run by those other three and he just didn't do it.  i don't think he's nearly as good as advertised.  

He was a play against for me solely based on the way KM was pointing him. I truly think that KM thought he could use this as a training mile and still get 3rd and I believe him when he says he did not want to blow him out. But you take such a risk doing that when points are necessary.

There is also a rumor out there of hoof issues (his daddy had them). I'll be interested to see what his works are like. I think he wil actually get in.

 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

Yesterday I thought was actually good news if you want some potential juicy payouts in the tri and super for the Derby.  the last thing I want is 4 or 5 horses that all look like they are pretty logical choices to run well at this distance in this race because of course they will all be bet down and in every tri and super ticket.  the fact that both 9F races yesterday were not blazingly fast is good news imo.  the more questionable they look at 10F the more likely in my view some bombs can enter the equation.   pletcher's horse will probably be the new flavor of the month after the Florida Derby.  

I was impressed with Constitution and it seems the Big Brown comparisons will be starting although he hasn't been dominate like BB.

I think the races next week will produce our Derby favorite and the 'it' horse. Not sure if we are talking CC or Social Inclusion or someone else...

 
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Posted: #46
I would like to see what California Chrome does next week.  As of now my pick are still Samratt and Tapiture, with a slight nod going to Tapiture.  A whole lot of things could change after next week though.  Lets do our homework boys.  Derby is around the corner and I want us all to make a killing.  Good luck to all. 
 
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Posted: #47
This race is starting to shape up to me loaded with front runners and horses that if they don't want or need the lead they perform much better from just a tad bit off the pace.  Naturally one would look to see who can come from off the pace and get the distance and I might have a couple but they are gonna get bet if they do what i believe they will next week.

So, where's my bombs that can come from mid pack at 30/1 or higher?  We Miss Artie is in the race and he will probably be 50/1 or higher but he might be so far back I just don't know if he can get up in time to crack the super.  If Commanding Curve sneaks in he can rally from well out of it but might not be fast enough overall to get up.

Cavalry charge with a pack of 8-10 horses pretty bunched up in the final furlong?  in these last four G1 at 9F maybe one or two will emerge that rally sharply for a second or third and get in with an improving pattern looking for more distance.  
 
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Posted: #48
Vicar's In Trouble:

- hard knocking little fella might find himself in trouble if he doesn't get a cozy lead all to himself . . . . . . . . and can we reasonably expect that to happen in a field of 20 loaded with front runners and early pace types?
- he's more than earned his way in and in my view taken advantage of what was there for him to take
- that pace in his lecomte win was pretty chilled out and he basically wired them was sitting just off it early.  the pace in the LA Derby was the slowest route pace on the day to include two spins washed off the green and to his credit he jumped on it and stole it.  in races where he isn't on an easy lead well he's folded.
- tree/blood is pretty sprint heavy

bottom line:  if he wires the field and i lose because of that so be it.  i just can't see a scenario where he gets to set an easy pace and doesn't face any pressure and holds off any mid-pack closers and stalkers.  i can't expect his best ever in this scenario at this distance.  i'll likely toss him.  
 
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Posted: #49
Constitution:

- 3/3 lifetime, figs are rising gradually, figs rise along with distance, and razor sharp recency
- hasn't run the highest numbers but has two routes at Gulfstream with a 98 and a 99 in a G1 which are numbers I trust more than a few of the others
- looked game and pretty lively finishing up that Florida Derby against a horse that is a helluva fighter and just doesn't seem to go away
- for whatever reason these Tapits just seem to kind of fall apart right after that 9F mark.  i can't explain it but it's documented.  he has a 150K stud fee because they win a lot and win early but they haven't been going long
- castellano, pletcher, improving pattern, solid figs . . . . .  as long as he isn't in post 1-6 you can count on 6/1ish tops on this guy

Bottom line:  i'm absolutely not convinced he can win at this distance but I have a hard time completely tossing him because i have to respect that he keeps firing.  i personally would not bet him to WP at his low price but i'm not sure i can leave him out of a tri or super.  i hate these scenarios because he isn't as obviously distance challenged as an Uncle Mo (i know he missed the Derby but you get my point) or Verrazano but i just have this inclination that the final furlong could be awful tough for this guy.  
 
 
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Posted: #50
Ring Weekend:

- here's one that might be a potential bombs away horse for me
- this guy was entered for either turf or synthetic only his first four spins before being gelded after which he went out and popped two lifetime highs on dirt
- another one of those Tapits though he does get some help from the other side on distance/stamina
- improving pattern, really woke up recently, and seems to be heading the right way at the right time
- makes his next start in an ungraded event at Calder going 9F.  not sure how much this well tell us unless he just crushes easily

bottom line:  i can see him getting ignored on the board based on him skipping the G1 races for that Calder race unless he puts up a huge fig there.  if he relaxes in that race and makes a late move showing some energy and zip i might be enticed into using him as a bomb but if he runs say above 100 he's gonna get bet probably below 15/1 (even though i think others like me are skeptical of Calder figs) 
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