Like 256...next race in race #5 (4910 a little and I put them on a separate pick3).....2469 in race 6 and in race 7 ....love 1410.....10 can beat these straight up most days but in a final from the outside ....it will likely break....#5 and #8 are legit to be on a ticket too
Wow...race 6....#9 looks unreal
i thought #3 and #6 looked best post parade until I saw the 9
Betting both WIN and Place and then 9 with both of them for exactor and with #1 who also looked good and thats a great driver change to Luc Roy...same racing style as McNair
Weather and track condition for Friday night:
-track going to get soaked but then dry out by 1st to 3rd race....nice clear conditions and slightly falling temperatures and wind later.
-its windy in Toronto now but not as much 45 km away at Mohawk > early races 10-15 mph West wind so if track is off, take horses that can gain position or come first or second over because inside of track may be slow for leaders....it all depends on if it rains there...I see 1-3 mm coming around 5 pm -6 pm...and then sprinkle MAYBE after that till 8 pm
- wind diminishing later to half the speeds above and North wind direction so no change really for tactics
I would look for horses who can leave and get position in top 4-6 spot in the first Quarter
Race sizes of horses entered > 8 / 9 / 9 / 9 / 10 .....good chance for a nice payout and Fillies and mares pacers so anything can happen ....rarely do they improve by 2 seconds from one week to the next if on a regular rotation so watch for driver changes, drops in class and better horse position from last race for angles
Race 1 - leaving 7 out
Going with #358 ....think the 3 and 8 will battle down the lane and 5 could work out a winning trip from that or maybe #7 but I doubt it winning 3 in a row vs the quality here
-be careful with falling in love with #8 and times...the horse has been off the longest (4 weeks)...might leave him out
Race 2 - 234578 ....would leave #4 out but its a trip horse and just might get one in this race
-would consider keying #7 here due to its ability vs much tougher horses in all races than the others have faced!
-8 is my upset play! Beware Brethour horses in a race like this and did well at KD and now get a Mohawk driver
-5 is Luc Roy's horse and can win anytime but I am not sure if he will...good post position and double wins happen a lot
Race 3 - only 358 and I might consider keying #8 due to its trip last time and how it was bet....I think it comes back to win this easily but I really like #3 and who knows how fast #5 is vs lesser horses
Reality > #8 CAN LEAVE and HAS THE BEST KICK ...so might do one ticket with it keyed
Race 4 - would consider an All due to the trip tactics and closeness of these but will whittle it down
-yes #1 > good driver change
-yes #3 > can finally get to the front without distress vs its softest field in a while
-yes #5 > JMAC might have instructed it to be trained to leave the gate this week and now he just might get position and finish a race....its getting closer
-yes #7 > Hudon is racing better this year and this horse does have horsepower and suits his style of racing this year coming first over which is what I think he will try
MAYBE > #8 can win anytime but needs a trip ....and #9 is 0-20 this year but McClure does well on Fellows horse and this is 2nd steer in a row
No luck early....got a nice $1 Pick5 going after two legs now....got #7 keyed in the 8th race with 3 horses with 2 horses in the last leg.....only one horse can beat XPAT maybe in that last leg
Next race (8th), I have ALL with #4 keyed in race 6 so things are looking good to cash something. It actually might work better for me for a long bomb 10-1 in the book win next race.....will still have 3 horses with 2 horses in the last leg
Saturday conditions....dry air...very fast track and NW wind that is blowing 12-16 MPH and then tapering to 8 - 12 later
Horses love this weather and if asked to run they do....front end horses should do well as it will be hard to close from the back unless the fractions are blistering so always throw in the fastest back half horse in the race if they are in a race with 2-3 horses that like to battle for the lead
I absolutely love #3 in the last leg in race 5.....ITS A PURE KEY.....he is dropping down, has the fastest times and should have been two very strong 3 yr olds that are going for NAC eligibility.....but was blocked up the rail.....I was horrified because I did not have him and he would have won by a few lengths I bet
Take some longshots in the other races and JMAC or LUC ROY on every horse because they are good in these conditions and JMAC has been unbelievable .....I would also include Jodi who does well with front end wind conditions
GL
NE wind from 8 - 15 mph gusts and then tapering slightly after race 4/5
No rain tonight but the track will get a brief shower before which tends to make the track faster after it starts to dry out
No disadvantages
Front end speed will be fantastic tonight as the first turn will assist a push and then the horses can slow things down on the back stretch to the half and 3 Q pole....
I like position horses but outside horses have a shot tonight if they can leave.
Firstover is not as good as last couple of weeks....2nd and 3rd over are better but if front end horse gets away with good fractions, they may not catch the leader midway down the stretch
Ok....I am out tonight and after Saturday night bullshit tactics....I think what I see is a track barn that is starting to let others win races (other trainers/owners) so that they can have money for sales in the fall /spring etc.....this happens 2-3 periods through the year and most seasons at the end of July before the big stakes races when mostly favourites or middies win...
It might be time to start playing superfectas and long shot tris with the top 2 favourites 3rd or 4th
I am rethinking my spending on Pick5s to focus on a KEY horse and then taking longshots in the other 4 races
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