Crypto thread

It will most likely happen after the halving. 

Currently, the reward for mining a block is 12.5 Bitcoins. In May the reward drops to 6.25 Bitcoins per block. 

An average of 144 blocks are mined per day. Approximately 1,800 bitcoins (12.5 x 144) are rewarded everyday. Or $18,000,000 (1800 x 10,000) worth of Bitcoin. 

In May this will be cut down to 900 bitcoins rewarded everyday. Or $9,000,000 worth of bitcoin. 

To hold $10,000 per BTC the market has to absorb $18,000,000 worth of bitcoin being rewarded everyday. 

When this number drops to only $9,000,000 that needs to be absorbed it only makes sense that the price of bitcoin will rise substantially. Quantitative Easing vs Qualitative Tightening. 

This has happened twice before. In 2012 the price rose about 8,000%. And in 2016 the price rose around 2,000%. 

Will probably see a 1,000% increase following the halving. 

$100,000 per Bitcoin by December 2021. 

So you are saying cutting the supply and decreasing the reward will increase demand? I basically disagree with everything that you believe. With such a predictable sequence of events (halving events) I would tend to believe that speculation should already be priced in.

Further, this is the FIRST halving event with actively traded futures going on. It's hard for me to believe how the tremendously significantly futures market isn't being contemplated by Bitcoin bulls in regard to the upcoming halving event?

If the demand stays the same the price will increase dramatically. 

Why do you believe the demand will not stay the same? 

The supply of dollars is increasing. More dollars are put into circulation than ever before. Roughly — A dollar has never been worth less in its history. 

The supply of bitcoin is also increasing. Less bitcoin is being put into circulation than ever before. Roughly — A bitcoin has never been worth more in its history. 

Dollars are used to buy bitcoin. 

Maybe you are right. 

Or

Maybe you’ll really regret not buying bitcoin. 

I don't pretend to know everything and there is a lot I can and will learn in the future. Bitcoin included.  

Interesting that you mention the dollar, however. I was in my car a short while ago and they were talking on CNBC how the Coronavirus is driving the dollar higher. They were speculating that the longer the virus goes, the higher the dollar will go. 

As far as regret, up to this point as long as you are not in cash or CD's you are winning. The s&p, QQQ, the Dow Jones, Bitcoin, alt. crypto....doesn't matter. You're making money. 

I am convinced I will never regret not owning Bitcoin. So far, for as many years as this thread has gone on, I have been spot on about Bitcoin. When it was being touted at $19,000, I said sell. When it hit $4,000 I said to buy and sell at $10,000. If I had only taken my own advice???....oh well, there's more than one way to skin a cat. 

“Grandpa, how did you get all of these fancy cars and big boats?” 

“Well son, back in the day our money was the dollar but they kept printing more of it. So one day I traded it all for Bitcoin, Cardano and Coti.” 

“Before everyone else?” 

“That’s right son.” 

Interested to see what happens to Bitcoin as the markets get pummeled 

Gold is flying higher with the markets down over 4% in a day and a half of trading. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is down 6% in the same time period. It's obviously not the choice for investors seeking safety. Will it ever be?

My theory of selling at 10K holds for seemingly the 10th time.

See Draper on CNBC? Sticking to his $250,000 BTC by 2023. Says Bitcoin is the currency of the future. 

Could be the last dip dip before the halving! 

Remember when Draper bought the bitcoin seized by the feds in the Mt Gox scandal? What a legend. 

Sold his stocks 6 mo ago to go all in crypto. 

This Warren Buffet stuff will be looked back on the same way we look at Matt Lauer and Katie Couric talking about the internet in 1995 on the Today show 

Wallstreet, 

Gold dips a bit, not because investors don’t like gold, but because weak hands need to pay margin calls on stocks? Gold is liquid (mostly ETFs). Pretty soon it’s a big buy for strong hands. 

Thoughts? 

The Bank of Canada is preparing for a digital currency 

Central bankers think the appeal of bitcoin is that it’s digital 

Quantitative Easing vs Qualitative Tightening 

Hellllllllo 

Yeah that is likely the reason, to free up funds for lowering leverage or margin calls but in seriousness there is no correlation to gold and risk off...thats an excuse used. The real benefactor of risk off is bonds...bonds have been charging much more than gold has for the last several years.

Even with this "move" gold is severely lagging all asset classes and for good reason. I get a chuckle reading clowns like Shiff who are selling their book day in and out trying to conn people about fiat currency going away and gold being the end winner. He is talking his investments and he shades his facts. Fiat is not some stand alone entity, the price of dollars is relative to other currencies and the strength of the economies behind the currencies UNLESS one is doing something different than all the others..So Japan has been trapped in QE land a long time and they are considered a safe haven because everyone knows their CB will back them with QE no matter what. Other currencies are relatively stronger or weaker depending on their economy and their CB. Shiff loses me when he forgets to properly inform and is talking his book and that makes him unreliable...much like all gold talkers.

Schiff has been dogging bitcoin since bitcoin was $100. It will drop from $10k to $6k and he’ll say, ‘see’! 

Getting mollywhopped 

BTC actually holding up better than most others...I am seeing LTC and some down 15% while BTC is down 6.

Pretty heavy volume, something has to be up.

At this point I can safely assume that Bitcoin is not the flight to quality that it has been assumed that it was. Gold soared on Monday and Tuesday and is up another 5 bucks today. Nothing earth shattering but money is going into gold in a steady trickle all week. 

Draper is delusional when he gets in front of a microphone or camera predicting $250,000 Bitcoin in two years. It's simply absurd. I still am highly skeptical about this halving episode in May occuring with active futures trading for the first time ever. No one predicting another double in BTC has yet to truly address the presence of active futures trading. 

Wall....I would love to hear your opinion on this upcoming halving episode and the cause/effect of futures trading that now exists. 

Draper purchased 30,000 BTC in 2014 for an estimated $19 million at the US Marshals auction. $633 per BTC. 30,000 BTC is worth $264 million right now. 

If he told you then that the price would reach $20,000 per BTC in 2017 you would have said that was absurd as well. 

There was a dip like this (+/- 20%) before the last halving. 

So do you think the presence of futures trading is meaningless? 

I do agree with you that I would have viewed his 2017 prediction was absurd and I was dead wrong. However, my viewpoint is this would be akin to lightening striking twice. It happened to Lee Trevino so it's not impossible. 

At least we can now agree now that it's not currency.

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank and without the need for intermediaries. 

Bitcoin is the future. 

Yeah there is no correlation to halving and futures trading, futures you buy a spot either long or short and ride it up or down...the underlying demand and supply can move the futures markets but I outside the physical impact the futures wont change. 

Nice bounce and some buying has come in across all the coins the last hour or so.

The pre-halving retrace has historically been a bear trap. 

Bitcoin retraced -50% prior to the first halving and -38% prior to the second halving. 

The third halving is in 75 days. Probably no need to rush but I’d say it’s time to pay attention if you’re thinking of jumping in. 

I'd say if she goes back to 6k I would toss some bucks in the acct and buy some...depending on the speed of the descent of course.