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October Stock Talk #6

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All-Star
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Posted: #1
Dow and SP futures for Fri Oct 25 as of right now................
 
 
LOCKED LIMIT DOWN
 
Outside of the pessimism today, there is no reason to be optimistic.
 
Old man Buffett isn't going to save the day.
Oil dropping isn't going to save the day.
W talking on the lawn won't save the day.
Bernanke turning up the speed on the printing press won't save the day.
Paulson is out of bullets.
 
 
Ugh.
 
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Posted: #2
The good news today is that for those who have cash, there will be some serious value on sale today.
 
Good day for those looking to bargain hunt.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #3
The Pound vs Dollar is down .07 overnight 
Dollar vs Yen is down 5 
Gold is below $700 oz
Oil down over $3 barrel even with OPEC cut of 1.5mln per day
And markets are all WAY down across the world

Should be a Friday to remember (or forget)
 
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Posted: #4
Seems apt that CC open a thread on a day beginning like this one appears to be..

 Shitstorm brewing thank god for ultra inverse funds...

 

 
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Posted: #5
Well, everyone and his dog are yapping incessantly about "capitulation" and how "the market" can't turn up until this happens.
 
OK, then fine.
 
"I CAPITULATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
 
I am going to jump out my window right now so this selling madness can stop and we can start a new bull market.
 
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Posted: #6
I think that maybe if all of us on this gambling site jump out of a window today-----and make sure there are witnesses------the sell-off will stop.
 
Let's go.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #7
clay - blog for you

i cant imagine even wanting to look at the markets today

figure we get a nasty sell off then a bounce back with people closing positions heading into the weekend...

when a 1.5m bbl cut in production from OPEC results in a $4 down move in oil we're in strange times

gold below 700....no one has any idea where to go. imagine the world that we all know, ficticious, levered, credit all crumbling in a matter of months. i knew this would be bad but not like this

too bad nouriel isnt running the TARP. he and rosenberg (merrill) and paulson (hedge fund john) know whats going on, 99.5% of the rest of us have no idea...scary shit
 
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Posted: #8
Koaj-
 
Yeah, good info from Denninger.  Thanks.
 
.....................................
 
Was going to short SPY today on strength, but will now hang back.
 
Whenever this thing turns back up, will look to get long SPY with EVRYTHING I have.  Will miss the first 1/3rd of the move, which is fine.  Will hope to nail a bit of the middle and take the money and run.
 
No need to try to trade with individual stocks-----no telling what could happen with individuals, and it would be a crying (literally) shame to miss the rally off this sell-off.  Easiest way for me to game it is to just deal with the SP 500.
 
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Posted: #9
How high does the SKF go today?
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #10

"It’s like we’re walking blind in a minefield," said Prof Roubini. "Every situation has become risky and no one can trust each other. The banks are too big to be allowed to fail, but they’re also too big to save."


Nouriel

 
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Posted: #11
SKF---good question.
 
If you got it, good for you......get out the second C gets the dreaded 10-handle.
 
No one knows how to price it, Jax.  It could go as high as 300+, then it could sell off as the SP tanks.  All about supply/demand-----no fundamentals apply to its pricing.  Just like OM options.
 
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Posted: #12
No I don't own it.  I was just checking things before open and saw it was up 20%

Looks like its ONLY up 15% now though
 
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Posted: #13
That was the most anticlimactic down 400 point open ever
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
where the hell is the sell off to end this shit ??? im actually routing for a damn bottom.


one question where do they get the dow futures from ?? how do they calculate them ?

 
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Posted: #15
For "long haul" investing, which in today's violently volatile world, 5 years to me is like 50 years was back in the 50s.
 
Anyway, 3 top criteria:
 
1) Trailing yearly PE to last 5 year earnings growth rate.
2) Dividend yield.
3) Subjective here----how "my" economic forecast will affect the ticker symbol's business for the next 5 years.
 

 
Yeah, I did call C to go 10-12ish back around I think late January 2008 in one of "boiler room's" threads.  What happened to "boiler room?"
 
And yes, Brazil is better than Argentina for 21st century, but Argentina is rising.  One thing we all know-----the USA's days of dominance are farking caput----and I don't give a damn what old man Buffett is spouting for the media.
 
Sorry to ramble, but I think all questions have been answered.

 Thanks for the answer CC.

Ironically, for a second there it looked like DRYS was gonna hit $10 faster than C. Who would have thunk it? Not me.Hence my review of my own criteria.
 
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Posted: #16
Well, 6 hours left-----all hell could break loose at a moment's notice.
 
On problem to all this "capitulation talk".........the more the talking heads yap about it, the less likely it is to occur.
 
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Posted: #17
What are the 3 phases to an up move?  Help me, guys.....
 
 
1) The first third is "denial"  (95% of the public is skeptical).
2) The second third is "acceptance" (public doesn't want to miss it anymore).
3) The last third is "the blowoff" (people who know nothing about anything about the stock market pile on, and then it implodes).
 
Crazy.  All psychological when you deal with the "trading" aspect of it.
 
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Posted: #18
I for one have yet to determine how "capitulation selling" is differentiated from "forced liquidation." There has been plenty of forced liquidation already, and I doubt very much it is close to ending.
But no one has announced a "capitulation" day....


 
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Posted: #19
Won't happen, Vermeer.  The whole media circus talk about it incessantly every single day.
 
No way it can happen.
 
I wish it would just to get this farking horsecrap finished.
 
Just a slow grind down.
 
The media----what the f can you say?  Too many farking TV channels.  Maddening, cause "capitulation" would be good for the general economic prospects.
 
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Posted: #20

Dry bulk shippers are going the way of the global economy: under water. Among the shippers, DryShips and Excel Maritime Carriers have been hit particularly hard because of their large debtloads and significant spot market exposure.

For the 13th straight day, the Baltic Dry Index, which measures dry bulk shipping rates on 40 routes across the world, tumbled Wednesday, falling 71 points to 1,221.

The BDI began its slide over the summer, and it has been taking shipping stocks down with it. Among the companies that have been hit the worst are DryShips (nasdaq: DRYS - news - people ) and Excel Maritime Carriers (nyse: EXM - news - people ), whose shares have plunged 72.9% and 65.3%, respectively, since Aug. 1. Both companies not only had the most outstanding debt, but have been increasing their borrowings. DrysShips' total debt shot up 131.3% over the prior year, while Excel’s soared 304.5%.

 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #21
Vermeer,

Those guys are mistaken on a point.

DRYS has about 33% spot exposure this year, less than 40% next year.

They are pricing DRYS as if they have 100% exposure.

EXM is a bit more dicey, they have lots of spot exposure next year, they have a ton of charters coming up next year and they will probably have to slice the divi..and they are still digesting a high priced acquisition of QMAR.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #22
So much for that early rally to under -200, back down 380 and getting close to the lows.


 
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Posted: #23

Thanks Walls...just was passing along what I had read minutes ago, did not dig deeper.

 Think we trip another circuit breaker before the day is done?

Might be a good thing, just call it early and let people go home and wash down a Valium with a kamikaze or two.

 
 

 
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Posted: #24
If we do trip it we would only close for 1 hour
 
 
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Posted: #25

 By the way, serious question here, does everyone think we are going into a serious deflation, or a hyperinflation?

 Guys wondering if entire countries, not companies are collapsing, mentioning Dubai among others....

 

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