Party Could Be Over - At a Minimum All Cash the Prudent Move

let's see if they close it below the 1440-1460 box this week.  if I were short with a short term trade (which I am not as I have nothing open short term right now) I wouldn't get too cocky just yet.  i am sure Bernanke is biting his nails right now.  the entire move from the Fed's hopes, prayers, and dreams is potentially unwinding here.  wouldn't be a shock to start to see the media person pumping more rumors in the very near future. 

so, anyways let's look to see a close below 1440 and maybe even a move towards 1426.  1426 and 1407 would be the stronger levels that would potentially confirm a legit correction and trend change (1407 incidientally where Draghi barfed up an old program but gave it a new cutesie name only this time the ECB's hands are tied in many ways).  ahh but who cares since spanish bonds don't appear to be buying the hype either. 

a bullshit, garbage "stress test" conducted by Spanish officials concluded that the situation with spanish banks is "not that bad".  shocking that they would try to cover up the mess.  absolutely shocking (of course I am being sarcastic). 

Yahooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!

the media person can run with that one for a few hours. 

If anyone out there believes that Spanish banks are "not that bad" or in good health then I have a piece of property I would like to sell them.

It's this little patch of land but I swear if you dig down a few hundred feet there are 100 metric tonnes of gold there.  that's worth in the billions and you can have it for a measely couple of million.  I promise it's there . . . . . . .

g315 - if it was hired by the ECB hell it may have been even more full of fluff and bullshit.  the ECB is a joke.  but yeah, Spain basically asked someone's mommy if she felt her son was cute.  whad do you think she is gonna say?

just covered all of my net shorts that were short term trades.  we got the break out of the 1440-1460 box, the break below 1455, and then that move down below 1440 to 1426ish. 

wouldn't be surprised to see a pop here from this 1425-1430 level - could be a decent pop actually.  if it breaks down and I "miss out" on more downside I don't give a shit because with short term trades I feel you always, always, always should take profits.

anyways, might even consider a short term long here if I see what I like

long at 1428.30.  modest size lower than my usual short term move.  willing to give it 72-96 hours but this little bitch is on a very, very short leash.

charts say yes in terms of the most likely outcome given the current steup.

weekly close 1428.59.  closed above the 50 DMA after dipping below and above the 1426 level it broke through when Draghi supposedly saved the world by announcing nothing new but at least he acted tough on camera. 

this plus a whole bunch of other technical mumbo jumbo suggest for the short term only it should bounce.  target is 1456ish.  i'll let it prove itself or cut it if it doesn't show what I want to see.

limit order sell set for 1435.50 or 1444 whichever hits first.  adjusting my target to 1444-1456ish but not convinced there is enough conviction to get there.  if I see more enthusiasm approaching 1444 i'll nix it and set it higher. 

setting the stop at 1435.50 based on the charts to guarantee a profit from this position.  i don't think it will breach that (in the short term) prior to testing 1444-1456 but I sure as hell don't completely trust it.  if it went below 1435.50 could go right back to that 50 DMA.  rule #1 in short term trading:  never, ever take a loss beyond your personal threshold (mine is 2.5%).  it's just too difficult to make up large losses.  rule #2:  always, always, always cash in profits because they will take it back from you.   

hit the limit so modest gain at 1435.50.  must have been quite a few guys like me setting a limit order in that area to lock in gains so "the boys" massaged it down to take out all the stops.  cost me more of a profit but again I learned to avoid that line of thinking because that greed will kill you in this game.  i'll see how it reacts to 1444 in the morning which it should touch if the typical manipulation higher occurs in the pre-market absent any "news" that can legitimately move ES lower. 

most likely outcome short term:  test of the 1444-1456 area followed by new swing low to 1415-1426.  could be a play to short if it is running on fumes in that 1444-1456 range. 

then, i think a retest of 1474 is actually quite possible believe it or not.  if this happens short term and it does not break below 1415ish (since 1390 is a logical next level holding 1415 would imply short term relative strength) then that might be a legit opportunity to get long up to 1474.  1474ish is very stern long term resistance for the Spider.  it will be extremely important to see how it reacts there and if it moves above it will it be a headfake to catch all the perma-bulls going "all in" or will it truly break out? 

failure at 1474 and/or a headfake should at least create the conditions for a potential substantial decline that i have positioned for with my core portfolio.  gotta play the game along the way they will churn and burn this thing as long as they can.   

Obviously gonna open down this morning.  Got the test yesterday at 1425/1426 and then the ramp job based on rumors of more QE and a coordinated effort to ramp AAPL (took a little itty bitty trip on the long side). 

so, as stated before, analyzing a test of 1415/1416 and now an overall reaction to any bounce from within the 1400-1426 zone.  if no support found in there it could get ugly pretty quickly.  if it finds some in the 1415/1416 area it could bounce quickly and sharply.  more rumors anyone????  wouldn't shock me to see a 1415/1416 move to 1426 and a move maybe to that 1438 trendline at some point in the short term (prolly cook up some rumors to help that happen). 

For all you fundamental guys:  you notice anything about corporate earnings?  Notice how the so called "strong earnings" all seem to come from the financial sector?  Notice how these "earnings that beat estimates" in the financial sector generally do so because of manipulation of loan loss reserves and trading revenue during a quarter where the Fed jacked up risk assets? 

So, if you believe the financials are in such great shape then you probably also believe "everything is fine" in Europe and there is no debt/leverage problem to be concerned about. 

Yesterday and today so far are all about that 1415/1416 level.  There is a battle underway here.  All hands on deck by Bernanke's plunge protection team they know 1390 is a logical next place and then a potential cascade down if that doesn't hold.  Upside from here prolly stops at 1438ish short term if you are a short term trader.

Neutral for me it's too risky prior to seeing confirmation one way or another.  I'll jump aboard either way if I see what I am looking for. 

Times like this in the past have seen rumors of new magical bailouts, money printing, and other forms of treats from the tooth fairy surface in an attempt to suck people in.  Just sayin' . . . . . .