Again would not break above declining 50DMA and would not break above failed 1438 trendline. 1415 did not hold now testing the 1403 area. Might want to be careful before getting too cocky about kicking in a short right here and right now. I covered off the second wave down off the open. Could bounce off 1403 remember there are "outside forces" that have been supplying the magical buying power for a couple years now.
That said, this could get very interesting. A break of 1403 adds further steam to a change in not just the short term direction but the intermediate term direction. many, many stocks on the chosen list (AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, IBM, etc.) do not look pretty right now and have been under heavy distribution. every mutual fund and hedge fund in the world is long AAPL and when it no longer works most of them will use every pop to get out.
For all you guys that don't think the charts do not matter, it may be prudent to consider that the entire planet already knows that Bernanke will print $40B/month and then $85B/month starting in January into perpetuity or until the economy improves. We already know that. where is the surprise to keep the junkies excited? They already know they are getting free coke and heroin every month so what is there to get their heart rate elevated even more at this point?
Even with QEinfinity the dollar has been under heavy accumulation the last few weeks and oil has been under a lot of pressure along with yet again the piece of dogshit EURUSD failing to break out anywhere beyond the lift it gets from central banks trying to delay its inevitiable collapse. That's not an opinion that is a fact.
let's see where they close the Spider today. Volume is already running above average. As usual don't be shocked if the cheerleading person in the media start singing more tunes about the tooth fairy and yet another magical bailout scam.
Yup I could see that. that is why I covered short term positions it is too risky for my taste. Might re-enter if it pops to 1403ish and can't get above that (could be today, tomorrow, or never).
The financials have actually looked quite nice purely from the standpoint of the charts. Energy has already started to roll over. Tech already rolled over. The financials today are dropping on big volume. If they roll over what holds up the verall market?
In addition to a zillion other things I'll be watching things like XLF, GS, BAC, JPM. WFC.
Well that was an ugly close. Spider closed at 1394.53 cash and ES dumped as well late in the day. Volume jumped up big time.
I mentioned 1390 previously as the logical next level below 1403 and sure enough it literally touched it today and bounced and tried to get back above 1403 but could not do it. So, 1390 and 1403 the new target zone to monitor along with dozens of other things.
Barring a new bailout announcement tomorrow about how unicorns and santa claus are going to magically fix everything we should see a test of 1390 and that 200 DMA at 1380ish and 40 week MA at 1384ish are screaming out for some attention.
faded the opening fluff of hope and hype and no volume and caught it on the way down when it did not even test my 1403ish zone (those sons of bitches are frontrunning me
). covered at 1390. too risky for me after that could pop quickly and violently.
so, the 1390 was hit as described yesterday and now it's staring that 200 DMA right in the face. 200 DMA a very logical place to see a bounce. if it settles and calms down I might have to go long from that area (short term only and very, very short leash applied).
AAPL down again with volume picking up again. hmmmm, not so easy for the cheerleaders is it when AAPL doesn't pop 10 bucks a day like clockwork. it's the biggest market cap in the world so when it swings the other way . . . . . . . well you get the picture.
Looking beyond a couple days (but don't hold me to this since each day or even set of hourly charts can change this) I see the test of the 200 DMA as inevitable and I also see the EURUSD most likely heading to 1.25 further putting pressure on risk assets. prolly a bounce from there maybe towards 1400-1403 and then the issue is 1360. XLF dropping to test its 200 DMA would likely force things down to test 1360. 1360 is a key trendline that if violated with volume should lead to a move towards 1250-1266 in the intermediate term. if this were to take place I would likely dump TZA (or anything similar to it) in that 1250-1266 zone and even look to go long from there with decent positions not just short term trades. if that didn't hold 1150ish looks like another landing zone.
as usual, the biggest risk is intervention and manipulation and all of this can change very quickly. interesting how the Bank of England threw in the towel on QE and pulled the plug on money printing due to lack of efficacy. all of the risk assets outside of equities (oil, copper, gold, silver, etc.) have been telling you since September the state of demand and have been fading bernanke. so, i'll just have to watch and see what everything is telling me.
wow, no bounce at the 200 DMA. yikes, maybe something big is about to happen and not big in a good way. coulda stayed short from 1390 but gotta stick to the rules
. it was quite reasonable to expect at least something off that 200 DMA.
if this thing goes through 1360 on big volume there are a lot of people holding to that uptrend line at 1360 that will be forced to bail on this.
strong accumulation in TZA. stealth accumulation in UUP.
Bernanke and Draghi prolly be on the phone all night trying to come up with the next scam designed to make people believe "everything is fine".
200 DMA is 1380.98 and the cash Spider closed at 1379.85. nahhhh, forget about the charts they are not important, right? days like today i am literally laughing it is so obvious the cheerleaders tried oh so hard to close this above that number for the week. fairly "easy" little long trip to 1390 and then fade from there.
so, here we are: 1403 (1415ish above that), 1390, and 1360 along with the 200 DMA. be careful boys they can whipsaw this thing real quick and the cocaine from QEinfinity actually flows to the primary dealers this coming week. i must say though these bounces have been very weak and unless the pom poms shoot this above 1432 and 1438 on high volume (prolly need a new bailout to get that done) then it appears as though the short term, intermediate term, and long term trends are aligned to the downside.
If this 1360 is broken with conviction and closes at least two straight weeks below it on higher volume I'm prepared to update my "big picture" expectations:
1250-1266 - late 2012/early 2013
1390ish - early 2013
950ish - late 2013
1100ish - mid 2014
below 700 - late 2014/early 2015 
basically, longs need something to keep this pig inflated very soon or else all of the trends will have shifted the other way with confirmation. in the past (since 2008) this has been accomplished with intervention and manipulation. the fundamentals are absolutely horrid we all should know and understand that. what new scams will the central bankers come up with and will risk assets care and will they keep taking the bait? we'll just have to see.
the more Kool Aid you drink the more you believe "it can only go up".
rule #1 in investing (not trading): throw your personal opinions, beliefs, hopes, and dreams out the window and simply focus on what the market is telling you to do
Obviously 1360 is a very, very key level. Spider closed the week at 1359.87 maybe all that time studying the charts is worth it after all. Beneath this is kind of no man's land. to me it looks like Bernanke has the Plunge Protection Team well aware of this. they came in and saved it today using the so called compromise reached by the politicians as bait but the Spider tried three times today to get above 1360 and stay above there and it did not do it.
The Daq and the RUT both look very weak on their weekly charts with moves well below the 200 DMA but the Spider is hanging in there better (the one targeted specifically by Bernanke along with EURUSD and the Dax). Daq and RUT look destined for their lows hit in the summer (2726.68 and 729.75 respectively).
Volume was ok considering the Holiday on Monday but it didn't come in as much as it certainly could have on the way down.
Bottom line: 1360, the 200 DMA above that at 1382.17, and below it I can see a quick move to 1320 but really don't have a solid grasp and of course any scam bailout announced can change everything in the short run. I actually wouldn't rule out a crash from here. The Daq and the RUT are the sexy indices that reflect risk appetite fairly well and they have made decisive moves on increasing amounts of volume below the 200 DMA. Bulls need to generate something here very quickly but shorts shouldn't be smiling just yet. Spider sits just below that 1360 and you need to see it move further below with more volume to get some confirmation that 1250-1266 is coming.
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