Party Could Be Over - At a Minimum All Cash the Prudent Move

I think you hit it on the head here,  Atlas... Just goes to show you how irrational this market is when investors don't fear bad news, knowing the Fed is there to Stimulate . 

Of course these actions will have repercussions , but no one seems to care right now..

The rest of the developed world falling apart at a faster rate than the U.S. should not inspire us. 

the fed just printed more $$$$

 

they can print more money to do what they want but cut retirement programs for the masses that pay in to their programs but cut things like healthcre and social security to the people who have paid in .  its so bullshit.

Yep and the markets are off to the races again.

 

 

cant wait until  the  goes off

Ok, target box of 1440-1460 hit.  i dumped ALL of my SHORT TERM trading longs.  (had active hedges with the key levels of 1365 and 1407 as discussed in here plenty of times). 

either this is the biggest headfake in the history of the financial markets . . . . . . . or we are going to have a hyperinflationary bloodbath that sends commodities through the roof, ignites wars, sends the Spider to 1600 and THEN crashes.  i'm sticking with what i put before but I am OUT of all short term longs. 

 

looks to me like Ben and the ECB have both openly admitted they have nothing left and they are firing or attempting to fire their last shot.  remember this QE (as I stated) is for MBS purchases (see above article as to why they can't buy up all the treasuries).  it is also somewhat muted at 40B a month.  let's see how much this sticks or if this is the blow off top. 

let the good times roll   

i am going to hold one more day and see what shakes out

"Open Ended QE" = "we have no fucking clue how to solve this so we will just tell the market we will leave the door open to printing and maybe the sheep will continue to chase" 

Wait a bit then short this bad boy.  I have silver and not sure if I shoud sell or hold.  Any ideas?  Had a nice run on anticipation of QE 3 and now we got it.  Still going higher?

In agreement here on the hyper inflationary scenario.  A situation where staples and fuel cost twice what they do now by next year at this time is very real....all the while the hard assets are static in value and wages will not increase with the times.  I am not trying to sound like Alex Jones here, but a scenario of that nature is itself the economic collapse.

As far as the commodities bump goes, 100$ per barrel for light sweet crude is a major psychological hurdle....it has been my opinion that the institutions would keep crude  in check until the election..that hypothesis looks to be flawed.  Right now I am showing 9831 and rallying on the close....with every bit of news that comes out of the middle east we get a run at 100. 

My point is this:  we will find out what our economy is really made of after the election.  Crude could skyrocket with the idea that the US will move on Iran with no political price to pay.......In my opinion that will be the first domino to fall.  After that, we will see food prices soar, obviously all energy prices will rise putting the squeeze on everyone's pocket books. 

They are sucking the volatility out of the markets..it is pretty much non-existent and has been for over a year.

I've been saying this since the collapse in '08, we are in one the best runs in the market since the 80's. We will easily pass Dow 16,000 before this market ever blows back. You guys need to stop being so negative and start buying before you miss out. Our economy is fine.

Gfinger, your post couldn't be any further from the truth.

 This country has a big disconnect with a "stimulated"  stock market and a grave unemployment problem.      The primary reason for the Fed's actions of QE3 are because of those words by the Fed Chief... "a grave unemployment problem."      He is pumping up the stock market by these actions, but in no way does this mean the economy is getting healthier.

These actions will have repercussions later.

That would put the PE at what 20 plus on the SPX?

A good opportunity to raise cash and switch to a more healthy dose of Consumer Staples Stocks.  Boring stocks  that people use everyday regardless of the economy.   Out with the more riskier stocks that Helicopter Ben wants folks to buy.. materials, commodities, etc.

Each round of Quantitative Easing is bringing with it less return on stock performance.  

Prepare for rough times ahead.

So it looks like that target box of 1440-1460 was legit.  Spider is testing that 1460 to see if it can dangle the carrot and get people to try and jump on a move above that.  if it were to do so there is a pretty clear path to 1474 and 1490.  there is however pretty stern LONG TERM resistance at 1474ish.  long term resistance for the Naz is significant at 3200.  current thinking beyond the short term is either a move above these levels that gets parabolic or they hit a wall and we deflate all of that heroin induced hope and fluff and bullshit (1360, bounce, then 1248 and maybe 1150). 

 

you gotta wonder what provides the stimulus now that the Fed, ECB, and BOJ have ALREADY told the world they will print and print and print until the cows come home.  no more dangling it in front of risk assets since the cat is now out of the bag.  the central banks may have castrated themselves.  what on Earth will CNBCheerleaders talk about now that we already now QE is here to stay? 

SHORT TERM only I dangled a short at 1462 but have a very, very tight leash on it will consider riding down to 1440 or getting stopped out.  would look for bounce from there and maybe a test of 1426.  if it won't go down and at least test 1426 the parabolic up move may be in play. 

 

easy to say "the dollar is dead" and it makes you sound cool and like a tough guy but currencies are all relative.  what makes the others so strong against the USD?  chart got a little ugly so it needs to bounce soon.   

stopped out this AM at 1453.  set it after the drop on the open.  small profit.

 

will wait and see the initial reaction tomorrow with this expiration and rebalancing nonsense that is going on.  could be pretty volatile.  1440-1460 is the box.  below 1455 should in theory create a move towards that 1440 but bernanke and his soldiers stepped in today at 1450 so we'll just have to wait and see.  breaks above today's high and yesterdays highs and who knows i have no idea dn will just be watching.

1460.13 weekly close.  amazing how well the charts work when there isn't some sort of Central Bank meeting or announcement.

 

1440-1460 the power box.  1474 strong resistance and 3200 for the Daq.  move below 1455 in theory should create a test of 1440 but we shall see all we can do is get in the best position and make the best decisions. 

Good stuff. I still believe the politicians will fuck this market up when they get their chance as well..

Funny thing is, the lack of any consensus with policymakers is what's contributing to excessive FED action.  Bernanke has even suggested this in earlier comments,  that they need to step up to the plate, get their heads together, and pass legislation that will help foster job growth.

The FED should not be having to do all the heavy lifting on this.

This thread was started 18 months ago and the "party" has certainly not ended.  All cash 18 months ago would have been disastrous.

the plunge protection team did all they could to hold it at 1455 but once it didn't hold it was basically a straight line down to 1440ish as stated here previously.  1441.60 close.  ha I can envision even bernankle himself banging away on the keyboard trying to buy as much ES as possible.

could get interesting over the next few weeks.  pretty substantial resistance overhead and no more free coke and hookers to be announced by the central banks . . . unless they go full bore nuts and set off an hyperinflationary war. 

more evidence of how QE is training quite a few people to think that "it will go up forever" and never drop.  you must have missed the trip down to 1074.  i was looking for 1040 but Bernanke stepped in.

the Fed and the ECB are now both "all in".  all they can do now is say "well we already said we will print forever but now we swear and promise we will print more if you would just be patient".  there is no more dangling of the heroin in front of the junkie.  the whole planet knows QE will continue indefinitely.  so now we will see how risk assets react when they already know there is no new surprise to chase.  Bernanke has officially destroyed the Fed's ability to constantly tease the markets with more free drugs.  you may be surprised how risk assets perform under these conditions.

 

granted, they have managed to kick the can further down the road than i initially felt possible.  but I know I will not be holding a bag of dog shit as the financial system finally starts to deleverage and/or implode.  it's not if it is when unless the laws of simple mathematics are no longer valid. 

Good stuff, Atlas. 

for anyone that cares, to me the spider is kind of in no man's land at the moment.  i had a short from 1454.50 that i actually held overnight () and covered this morning at 1438ish.  i expected a bounce off 1440 (remember that box) but maybe it won't.  too iffy for me i am flat in terms of short term positions. 

 

interesting how EURUSD is fading, Spanish yields are climbing again along with credit default swaps, commods like oil and the metals are running out of steam, and the Shanghai composite keeps setting new multi-year lows.  but wait, I thought Draghi and Bernanke sprinkled fairy dust on the planet and "everything was fixed"?