This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
KIRBY, Mariners
Although the MARINERS failed to give KIRBY run support last night (they lost 1 - 2) KIRBY pitched very well and extends his HOT STREAK now to 9 games without a BAD outing...
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
WARNING! Streaker Alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
KIRBY, Mariners
Although the MARINERS failed to give KIRBY run support last night (they lost 1 - 2) KIRBY pitched very well and extends his HOT STREAK now to 9 games without a BAD outing...
RODON? After a bad outing to begin MAY, which the NYY lost, Rodon went on a hot streak of 7 consecutive games WITHOUT a bad outing and the NYY won all 7.
Then he began a streak of 5 consecutive BAD outings....and NYY lost all 5
RODON starts another game, and the NYY lose....
He was yanked after just 4 ip, though not pitching horrible...and not GOOD either.
7 K is GOOD over 4 ip!
But 7 baserunners is WEAK.
2 ER is mediocre after 4 innings so he gets the benefit of the doubt...
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
RODON? After a bad outing to begin MAY, which the NYY lost, Rodon went on a hot streak of 7 consecutive games WITHOUT a bad outing and the NYY won all 7.
Then he began a streak of 5 consecutive BAD outings....and NYY lost all 5
RODON starts another game, and the NYY lose....
He was yanked after just 4 ip, though not pitching horrible...and not GOOD either.
7 K is GOOD over 4 ip!
But 7 baserunners is WEAK.
2 ER is mediocre after 4 innings so he gets the benefit of the doubt...
Cubbies are an enigma... Jameson Taillon (Cubbies) has started 15 games and only allowed more than 3 earned runs ONCE!10 of his his 15 starts were just 2 ER or less!!!! And yet, Cubbies are just 8 - 7 in his starts! Oddly, the one game he allowed more than 3 ER (actually 5 that day) THEY WON! Cubs are just 2 - 5 in his 7 ROAD starts, despite Taillon only pitching poorly in 2! Currently, Taillon is on a run of 6 consecutive without a BAD outing.......although the confounding Cubbies are split 3 - 3 in those starts
In a very close call by my stats,
TAILLON (Cubbies) just barely extends his streak of games without a truly BAD outing,
to 7 consecutive, and will be on the bust-bubble for his next start...
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Cubbies are an enigma... Jameson Taillon (Cubbies) has started 15 games and only allowed more than 3 earned runs ONCE!10 of his his 15 starts were just 2 ER or less!!!! And yet, Cubbies are just 8 - 7 in his starts! Oddly, the one game he allowed more than 3 ER (actually 5 that day) THEY WON! Cubs are just 2 - 5 in his 7 ROAD starts, despite Taillon only pitching poorly in 2! Currently, Taillon is on a run of 6 consecutive without a BAD outing.......although the confounding Cubbies are split 3 - 3 in those starts
In a very close call by my stats,
TAILLON (Cubbies) just barely extends his streak of games without a truly BAD outing,
to 7 consecutive, and will be on the bust-bubble for his next start...
Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games = 3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs... But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average
skewing
"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games = 3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs... But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games = 3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs... But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average
skewing
A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.
3
Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games = 3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs... But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average
skewing
A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.
Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games = 3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs... But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average skewing A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.
Possible bets Tuesday? Not at this time.....
Still skittish about regression
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games = 3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs... But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average skewing A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.
@fubah2 When will you not be skittish about regression? It's going to be August soon. The dog days. Maybe picks then?
@daneault23
I am giving that some careful thought, sure,
but so far since late June, my private bets (unposted) at just a fraction of a unit, are mediocre, not much better than 50/50. This is repeating pattern for me year after year after year, for all bets after June when I have staked a nice profit.....I am perplexed why....but it seems to be a constant.
2
Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:
@fubah2 When will you not be skittish about regression? It's going to be August soon. The dog days. Maybe picks then?
@daneault23
I am giving that some careful thought, sure,
but so far since late June, my private bets (unposted) at just a fraction of a unit, are mediocre, not much better than 50/50. This is repeating pattern for me year after year after year, for all bets after June when I have staked a nice profit.....I am perplexed why....but it seems to be a constant.
@fubah2 So are you saying generally each season starting July you don't bet MLB the rest of the season?
@daneault23
I DO bet the rest of the season....but very miniscule fractions of my usual unit because tracking several seasons of past performance post June I am more or less break-even (same this year) in failed attempts to continue from my successful first half......so obviously there's no point in posting such mediocre picks, since they are no longer helpful.
3
Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:
@fubah2 So are you saying generally each season starting July you don't bet MLB the rest of the season?
@daneault23
I DO bet the rest of the season....but very miniscule fractions of my usual unit because tracking several seasons of past performance post June I am more or less break-even (same this year) in failed attempts to continue from my successful first half......so obviously there's no point in posting such mediocre picks, since they are no longer helpful.
This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game. High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number.
Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8. Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers.
Good luck second half.
1
@fubah2
This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game. High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number.
Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8. Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers.
@fubah2 This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game. High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number. Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8. Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers. Good luck second half.
@MrECapps
YES! Excellent point. We do the same thing that way, although I use 10+ as the outliers and I cap the numbers at 9 runs max. I keep a separate sheet with all teams listed for both HOME and AWAY, and note each time they score 10+........then I score all those games at just 9 runs and subtractr the difference from the gross totals listed on MLB.com stats page, then calculate a "best RPG" estimate (without the excess runs above 9)
I take it you do something very similar....
1
Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:
@fubah2 This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game. High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number. Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8. Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers. Good luck second half.
@MrECapps
YES! Excellent point. We do the same thing that way, although I use 10+ as the outliers and I cap the numbers at 9 runs max. I keep a separate sheet with all teams listed for both HOME and AWAY, and note each time they score 10+........then I score all those games at just 9 runs and subtractr the difference from the gross totals listed on MLB.com stats page, then calculate a "best RPG" estimate (without the excess runs above 9)
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