Flat betting in Baseball....

I AM NOT ADVOCATING FLAT BETTING.  I AM NOT SAYING IT IS MORE PROFITABLE.

But Van, this is the bottom line. We all want to know which method of betting will net you more units over the long haul. For me, unless my numbers drastically change over time, the wrong method is flat betting. And if it doesn't work for me, I assume there are many others it doesn't work for either. I believe this thread started with the argument that flat betting helps eliminate unnecessary losses over the long haul so this seems to be the bare bones of the discussion.

That said, just to clarify what I've shown to the rest, if a bettor KNOWS he will do better betting ML underdogs than ML favorites in the long run, then he would be better off not flat-betting, but no bettors KNOW this, and flat betting caters to the averages.

But Vanzack is condemning this as false. So now we have one's mathematical word vs. another's.

 

No, he realized it wasn't false and stated it in the post directly after that he misread my point.

 

Also, you say "there are many others this doesn't work for either".  That's not true.  There are very few bettors who are hitting underdogs at an 18% higher rate than they should be.  Most hit at about exactly the rate the odds dictate.  In the long run, I assure you that your percentage will drop, and it will approach the percentage that the odds dictate.  You may still be up a few percentages, but 18 percent is ridiculous.  Honestly, even you are probably better off flat betting starting now, as you can't keep up a 16-10 pace on underdogs.  If you think you can, then don't take my advice.  But when the numbers settle down, you'll be greatful you started flat betting.

Lawstyle -- I will revisit this analysis a couple of months from now to see where we stand, but I cannot, in good faith, change to flat betting when, after putting it to practical application (after all, this is what it's all about), it has netted me fewer units overall.

If, when I revisit it, things have veered more to average and if flat betting from today until 2 months from now would have done better than my method, then I will happily preach to everyone how flat betting is the winner.

But we are not at this point. I am very confident in my method of creating lines and I do not have any reason to believe my success or results will drastically change. And if they don't, then flat betting is a method by which I would consciously limit my potential winnings.

Lunchbox, I agree with your premise. However, Vanzack does not. He is of the opinion that there is only one way to flatbet: the way he suggests.

All I care about is results and my results tell me to avoid flat betting right now.

As for your second post and question, I always risk the same unit (1 or 2) on every bet. Every bet I make risks the same amount. It does not risk to win the same amount.

I think we have finally reached common ground.

I have been following this post with interest, as I play 1 (rarely 2) unit per game, normally on underdogs- unless I have completely missed the point here, VanZack is not trying to persuade anyone to bet "his" way, just to use the term "flat bet" accurately- please correct me if I am wrong here-

In the end no matter how you do it, you still have to handicap properly- no wagering / money management system described can overcome poor picks.

Just my 2 cents.

Thank you. 

You said what I was unable to say in 250 posts and 2 days.

Word for word I agree.

The only thing that is unanimously clear from this thread is that you are younger than 16 years old.

Can we get this thread moved to here?

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmain.aspx?spt=79


NBA threads go in the NBA forum. Sports gambling strategy threads go in the......

Why is a March join date so concerned where a thread is located

I get the ML average, and the system you well described above. If I was wagering on 6 games in a day, would it then be beneficial to us the ML avg. on those six in the above system, or would it negate the fav / dog individual MLs?

 

I am actually confused at what pertinence my Covers Born on Date has anything to do with my comment.

because this is a very informative thread, regardless its location, and you being new to this site, it's a bit much you telling everyone where it should be located ....

it's all good

 

i don't think so depending on how many favorites you bet, but it does make sense because it almost makes every game worth the same. There's a reason 'books limit money on a side by making it -130, which makes you put 1.17 units on it when you'd only be putting 1 on EVEN and 1.024 on -105 and 1.048 on -110 because that is the side they favor.


...this thread should be at the top always

You are a total douchebag.  I guess you would rather have 1000 pick threads or lock threads on the first page.

I totally get it that you DONT GET IT, but stop embarassing yourself.

I would say out of all of the threads I have been involved with, this one has had the most impact recently, and people genuinely are interested so if you arent, just buzz off.

And while you are at it, just kill yourself.