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MLB Picks for Sunday August 30th

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Prospect
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Posted: #101
"potential high loss"* I meant to say....
 
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Posted: #102
Oh what a week!! And SwayzeWaters couldn't have said it better

....and You, jstaley have made my week much more pleasant and profitable than what it could've been.  I have been so busy and emotional all week, and to culminate it with a positive Bankroll, knowing I'm going to pick up an envelope full of cash on Tuesday is just the ending I needed, thanks to your help
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by SoulCall:



This is how I think of it.... JS can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think of it more like chasing profits rather than chasing losses. On a week where we are approaching a potential high we look to play conservatively to end the week at a minimal loss and look forward to having a more profitable week ahead. It's more about playing with the bookie's money for the week and conserving the bankroll for future weeks to come.
exactly spot on target SoulCall... Why does it not surprise me that you are the only one that 'gets it' right off the bat.  Much respect brother, I think we are cut from the same clothe...
 
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Posted: #104
Hey JS, I totally agree with PLOdonk. Who cares about 1 bad day when at the end of the week, we make a nice profit. I started tailing you a little over a week ago and have started to see my bankroll increase with smart money management. THX bunches for all your wisdom. It is greatly appreciated brother!!!  Keep it rolling my brother.
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by SoulCall:



This is how I think of it.... JS can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think of it more like chasing profits rather than chasing losses. On a week where we are approaching a potential high we look to play conservatively to end the week at a minimal loss and look forward to having a more profitable week ahead. It's more about playing with the bookie's money for the week and conserving the bankroll for future weeks to come.

Exactly spot on target SoulCall, why am I am I not surprised that you 'get it' where others do not?  We are cut from the same cloth I believe SC...peace
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by jstaley12:

exactly spot on target SoulCall... Why does it not surprise me that you are the only one that 'gets it' right off the bat.  Much respect brother, I think we are cut from the same clothe...


lol I'll just say that as a hyper turbo sit & go grinder, bankroll management is very important....

PLOdonk probably knows what I'm talkin about lol
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by tbogie:

Hey JS, I totally agree with PLOdonk. Who cares about 1 bad day when at the end of the week, we make a nice profit. I started tailing you a little over a week ago and have started to see my bankroll increase with smart money management. THX bunches for all your wisdom. It is greatly appreciated brother!!!  Keep it rolling my brother.

Thanks for taking the time to say that, I much appreciate it brother...thanks
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by Hog_Wild:

Oh what a week!! And SwayzeWaters couldn't have said it better

....and You, jstaley have made my week much more pleasant and profitable than what it could've been.  I have been so busy and emotional all week, and to culminate it with a positive Bankroll, knowing I'm going to pick up an envelope full of cash on Tuesday is just the ending I needed, thanks to your help

Good for you brother, nice to hear 
 
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Posted: #109
Great Week JS  Thanks so much for allowing all of us to tail you and make some cash  First week of my gambling life where I gambled every day and even when I lost games I felt zero stress because I thought of the bigger picture and that was winning the week...Your Ten Commandments completely changed my thought process. You are the man JS. Props to you my dude 
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by SoulCall:



lol I'll just say that as a hyper turbo sit & go grinder, bankroll management is very important....

PLOdonk probably knows what I'm talkin about lol

BR management is the foundation , without it success is impossible, no question about that .
 
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Posted: #111
Don't worry I get it. And you can play how you like. If it works don't change it. I can't offer a better system because to perform a valid comparison all other factors have to be equal. And they are not because I can't cap for $hit!

I don't think we are even disagreeing because you don't seem to be claiming any logic behind your weekly approach - just that it works for you. Which is fine. And it clearly does

But if you are a work in progress as you claim then this tidbit is true - amending your wager to fit an arbitrary boundary which is dependant on your week to date is in the long run a slightly sub optimal approach. That is a mathematical certainty. Do with it as you wish and good luck....
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:

Don't worry I get it. And you can play how you like. If it works don't change it. I can't offer a better system because to perform a valid comparison all other factors have to be equal. And they are not because I can't cap for $hit!

I don't think we are even disagreeing because you don't seem to be claiming any logic behind your weekly approach - just that it works for you. Which is fine. And it clearly does

But if you are a work in progress as you claim then this tidbit is true - amending your wager to fit an arbitrary boundary which is dependant on your week to date is in the long run a slightly sub optimal approach. That is a mathematical certainty. Do with it as you wish and good luck....

I 'get' where you are going Jules, and cannot help but feeling we are in agreement, but using differing language to illustrate our points.  think of it like this.... I do base the amounts I wage 100% off of Value of the play (% likelihood of success), BUT I am, sort of, using a differing bankroll to which I am wagering.  All wagers are based in % of bankroll in relation to Value of  a play, but the Bankroll considered is larger, or smaller depending on how much of the books money I am working with at the point of the week.  I honestly think we are in agreement brother
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Djr357:

Great Week JS  Thanks so much for allowing all of us to tail you and make some cash  First week of my gambling life where I gambled every day and even when I lost games I felt zero stress because I thought of the bigger picture and that was winning the week...Your Ten Commandments completely changed my thought process. You are the man JS. Props to you my dude 

good for you brother, sounds like you are on your way to actually enjoying this game--making money, no stress, and consistent improvement ... nice to hear  
 
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Posted: #114
Thanks for the good week Staley. Appreciate the posts each day
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by Train86:

Thanks for the good week Staley. Appreciate the posts each day

you are welcome Train, 
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by jstaley12:


BR management is the foundation , without it success is impossible, no question about that .


#1
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:

Don't worry I get it. And you can play how you like. If it works don't change it. I can't offer a better system because to perform a valid comparison all other factors have to be equal. And they are not because I can't cap for $hit!

I don't think we are even disagreeing because you don't seem to be claiming any logic behind your weekly approach - just that it works for you. Which is fine. And it clearly does

But if you are a work in progress as you claim then this tidbit is true - amending your wager to fit an arbitrary boundary which is dependant on your week to date is in the long run a slightly sub optimal approach. That is a mathematical certainty. Do with it as you wish and good luck....
and I talk to much?? Wow, lol
 
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Posted: #118
JS, you just earned my respect 'back' in a way. Thought your challenge was stupid, so I was trying to position you to challenge me, yes everyone, not a regular poster, and because of that I can't post my results! 

I have a similar method to you bro. I come up with a line range, and if the books I use are in that range, then I consider the line too tight and stay away. Out of my range, then I feel an edge one way or the other. 

Side note - I have an addiction to team totals and betting overs verse regressing pitchers. I also have OCD where I bet large amount on individual plays, but play odd amounts on parlays under the assumption that if they lose, my account has an even number (stupid yes, but that's why OCD is a disease)

Anyway, Steven covey is one of my favorite authors and business men. Read some of his work and he's very worthy of following to enhance life skills. That's #1 why you're getting my respect back.

#2 because as much as others won't deviate from their standard risk dollar amount or value, I will. I also look at my week and do the same you did to say, "ok, if I lose, I will make $X on the week, and I'm okay with that). Only way I don't is if I absolutely hate the match and the line is tight.

Early in the week I play small. I press with the houses money. Same reason to press at a craps table and not play the same dollar amount the entire evening... If you don't deviate your range, the house will always win!

Keep up the good work! 


 
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by fullabs11:

JS, you just earned my respect 'back' in a way. Thought your challenge was stupid, so I was trying to position you to challenge me, yes everyone, not a regular poster, and because of that I can't post my results! 

I have a similar method to you bro. I come up with a line range, and if the books I use are in that range, then I consider the line too tight and stay away. Out of my range, then I feel an edge one way or the other. 

Side note - I have an addiction to team totals and betting overs verse regressing pitchers. I also have OCD where I bet large amount on individual plays, but play odd amounts on parlays under the assumption that if they lose, my account has an even number (stupid yes, but that's why OCD is a disease)

Anyway, Steven covey is one of my favorite authors and business men. Read some of his work and he's very worthy of following to enhance life skills. That's #1 why you're getting my respect back.

#2 because as much as others won't deviate from their standard risk dollar amount or value, I will. I also look at my week and do the same you did to say, "ok, if I lose, I will make $X on the week, and I'm okay with that). Only way I don't is if I absolutely hate the match and the line is tight.

Early in the week I play small. I press with the houses money. Same reason to press at a craps table and not play the same dollar amount the entire evening... If you don't deviate your range, the house will always win!

Keep up the good work! 



I agree with you on many fronts there, including the loss of respect over the 'challenge', all I can tell you is I mistakenly thought that would be taken in a totally different way than it was--just stupid.  I agree with the betting strategy as SoulCall brilliantly named "chasing profit as opposed to chasing losses".

Steven Covey's 4 quadrant theory of problem classification is a simple concept that you can build you life around, love the guy.

Have an incredible week brother
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