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Money Ball 5-26-2015

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by thaknuts:

hey Key--

i respect your opinion a lot man and i had a question for you about first 5's...

yesterday i took the Giants on the First 5 innings bet which lost, only to see them erupt for 7 runs in the SIXTH against Lohse

obviously u took them full game and reaped the rewards of that 6th inning... is it just completely flawed logic by me taking the first 5 because i was betting almost solely on the pitching matchup? or is this just very results oriented thinking to think this way...

i guess im just curious why you choose to bet the full game instead of first 5 when baseball is so starting pitcher dependant.... is there more or less variance when taking the first 5? i originally thought less but now i might have changed my mind and may start betting full games...

than you k in advance for commenting

i think key starts betting F5 later in the season as he gets to know the pens better.

F5 vs 9innings...its hard to predict
 
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Posted: #27
 
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Posted: #28
Nice picks! I also like Detroit a lot. Line seems very low but all factors point to Price and the Tigers.
 
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Posted: #29
On Em both!!
GL to us

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by PlayWithThem:

Key, do you have a limit as to how many plays you do in a given day?
Not really, but there is a limit to how many games will present both probability of a win and line value. I may have a 57% probability on a game but if the line is north of -125 or so it is unplayable. Many games, favorites and dogs both, are close to accurate for the risk to reward ratio and are guesswork after that. Coin flip. Anyone can do it, you don't need me and my advice would be irrelevant.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by doliver517:

Buchholz has 3 QS in a row and had given up 7 runs in those 3. The Red Sox have played the back up catcher in those 3 starts, not sure who's going to catch today. I do agree the Twins are the better tm, just wondering if Clay has found something
Remember, I do not use the MLB grdaing system for quality starts. My program computes 2 straight quality starts and a qs record of 5-4 for the year. Where Buchholz fails to make the grade for me is is in the skills achievement. He has a rating of 65.9 versus the mlb average of 67.1 and probably cannot maintain a high performance level.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by thaknuts:

hey Key--

i respect your opinion a lot man and i had a question for you about first 5's...

yesterday i took the Giants on the First 5 innings bet which lost, only to see them erupt for 7 runs in the SIXTH against Lohse

obviously u took them full game and reaped the rewards of that 6th inning... is it just completely flawed logic by me taking the first 5 because i was betting almost solely on the pitching matchup? or is this just very results oriented thinking to think this way...

i guess im just curious why you choose to bet the full game instead of first 5 when baseball is so starting pitcher dependant.... is there more or less variance when taking the first 5? i originally thought less but now i might have changed my mind and may start betting full games...

than you k in advance for commenting
I did almost nothing but F5 here for years and had great success. There is nothing wrong with your F5 yesterday, the fact they scored in the 6th and beyond is an aberration, not something to be feared on a daily basis. I got away from F5 last year for basically 3 reasons. 1. I was getting a ton of pushes on teams that went on to win in 9 innings and 2. the lines are usually better the earlier you can play, which meant 3. waiting for F5 lines to open at adjusted numbers was costing me money. Don't change your mind about first 5 innings. I have done it this year and will be doing more of it, especially in a situation like betting against the Royals starter. You may want to go against him, but you don't want anything to do with that bullpen, so if your starter beats their starter you don't have to sweat out the last 4 innings. BOL 
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Posted: #33
hey key  do you like the over in the angels and padres game tonight 

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by lilcrossy5:

hey key  do you like the over in the angels and padres game tonight 

It is unlikely I will ever like an over in Anaheim, the toughest park in the major leagues for scoring. That being said I will admit tonight looks like as good an opportunity as ever, so if you play it, BOL
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Posted: #35
i took the over cause angels are hot here lately and both teams are giving up some runs here lately.... hopefully we can get a lot of hits and god over... i took your picks so i hope we both can win tonight also   BOL
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by lilcrossy5:

i took the over cause angels are hot here lately and both teams are giving up some runs here lately.... hopefully we can get a lot of hits and god over... i took your picks so i hope we both can win tonight also   BOL
Let's not be pikers about it. I hope we sweep, lol.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #37
thanks Key    u helped me tonight
 
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Posted: #38
I hope the faint of heart didn't bail out after yesterday. Got back all but a few dollars tonight. 2-0, +$505.59
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #39
Spent the last ten mins looking for your thread to just salute the work you've been doing here on covers..was too afraid to take the twins today and someone else said Giants was a trap so I got spooked on that as well but I did win a two team parlay with the Yanks/Mets...
 
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Posted: #40
Thanks for the Twins pick Key. 
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I hope the faint of heart didn't bail out after yesterday. Got back all but a few dollars tonight. 2-0, +$505.59





Well Done         
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by AZHOTAZICE:

Spent the last ten mins looking for your thread to just salute the work you've been doing here on covers..was too afraid to take the twins today and someone else said Giants was a trap so I got spooked on that as well but I did win a two team parlay with the Yanks/Mets...
The only place a trap exists in the bettors mind. Those that think the books set traps so you will bet the wrong side of a game are ignorant fools. You should not only not listen to them, but never pay attention to anything they have to say after that. You simply do not try to "trap" smart bettors with very deep pockets so you can beat Joe Six Pack out of his 20 bucks.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #43
broom day
 
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Posted: #44
[/Quote]The only place a trap exists in the bettors mind. Those that think the books set traps so you will bet the wrong side of a game are ignorant fools. You should not only not listen to them, but never pay attention to anything they have to say after that. You simply do not try to "trap" smart bettors with very deep pockets so you can beat Joe Six Pack out of his 20 bucks.[/Quote]
Spoken like a true capper, I will definitely keep that in mind going forward!
 
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Posted: #45

Great Day Key,

                               Had the Giants on my card . Wish I had seen the Sox pick before game. Their offense sucks right now.

Great Plays

 

 
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Posted: #46
 
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Posted: #47
Thanks for the picks tonight.  Been sitting below 50% last two days.  I was upset.  So i took 4 teams today.  Two of them i went with your picks.  It was a close call on the tigers but I did it.  I hit 4 teams parlay.  What a day.
$1,273.17$1,978.68Wager Won311144917-1$100.00$1,173.17
Win4 Team Parlay





Win5/26/15 8:10pm  MLB Baseball  909 San Francisco Giants -128* vs Milwaukee Brewers  (M Bumgarner - L must Start   M Garza - R must Start)





Win5/26/15 7:05pm  MLB Baseball  915 Houston Astros +108* vs Baltimore Orioles  (S Feldman - R must Start   C Tillman - R must Start)





Win5/26/15 8:10pm  MLB Baseball  926 Minnesota Twins +1½ -125* vs Boston Red Sox  (C Buchholz - R must Start   M Pelfrey - R must Start)





Win5/26/15 10:05pm  MLB Baseball  927 Detroit Tigers -110* vs Oakland Athletics  (D Price - L must Start   J Chavez - R



Thanks key
 
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Posted: #48
Thanks Key
 
 
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Posted: #49
why not 14-0 since you made it up anyway scammer
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