Very nice smack, one thing I am trying to understand, I thought you identified the 3 borderlines plays and then listed the POD’s, which went 7&4. But then you said if you weeded out the border lines you would have been 6-2. What am I missing, or is it back dated in the thread.
thanks for the clarification.
I totally messed up in that write up above...thanks for catching it...late at night, way too tired to be writing anything...lol...
What I SHOULD have done...main system plays (RDS) and deleted the borderline plays to get the PODs...
Yesterday, the main system went 8-6 and the borderline plays went 1-2...subtracting the 1-2 from the 8-6 and you get a 7-4 record which is the record of the PODs...
Sorry about the mistake ...
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:
Very nice smack, one thing I am trying to understand, I thought you identified the 3 borderlines plays and then listed the POD’s, which went 7&4. But then you said if you weeded out the border lines you would have been 6-2. What am I missing, or is it back dated in the thread.
thanks for the clarification.
I totally messed up in that write up above...thanks for catching it...late at night, way too tired to be writing anything...lol...
What I SHOULD have done...main system plays (RDS) and deleted the borderline plays to get the PODs...
Yesterday, the main system went 8-6 and the borderline plays went 1-2...subtracting the 1-2 from the 8-6 and you get a 7-4 record which is the record of the PODs...
Day 29 of the RDS is here!...Washington (-30) vs Miami (-92)NYY (+65) vs S.D. (-10)T.B. Devil Rays (+67) vs Toronto (-44)Cincy Game 1 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)Houston (+89) vs Chicago Cubs (+54)Boston (+33) vs Cleveland (-6)Oakland (+33) vs LA Angels (-15)Minnesota (+111) vs Milwaukee (+14)Cincy Game 2 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)LA Dodgers (+79) vs NYM (-12)Texas (+13) at Seattle (-49)Arizona (+49) at Colorado (-6)Borderline plays are ...NYYHoustonTexasWhich leaves the 9 PODs...WashingtonT.B. Devil RaysCincy...Game 1 and 2BostonOaklandMinnesotaLA DodgersArizonaSpotted a few leans on OVERS...adding them here as possible bonus selections...Cubs/Houston OVERPittsburght/Cincy Game 2 OVERArizona/Colorado OVERTexas/Seattle OVERGood luck for Memorial Day gents!...
BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Day 29 of the RDS is here!...Washington (-30) vs Miami (-92)NYY (+65) vs S.D. (-10)T.B. Devil Rays (+67) vs Toronto (-44)Cincy Game 1 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)Houston (+89) vs Chicago Cubs (+54)Boston (+33) vs Cleveland (-6)Oakland (+33) vs LA Angels (-15)Minnesota (+111) vs Milwaukee (+14)Cincy Game 2 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)LA Dodgers (+79) vs NYM (-12)Texas (+13) at Seattle (-49)Arizona (+49) at Colorado (-6)Borderline plays are ...NYYHoustonTexasWhich leaves the 9 PODs...WashingtonT.B. Devil RaysCincy...Game 1 and 2BostonOaklandMinnesotaLA DodgersArizonaSpotted a few leans on OVERS...adding them here as possible bonus selections...Cubs/Houston OVERPittsburght/Cincy Game 2 OVERArizona/Colorado OVERTexas/Seattle OVERGood luck for Memorial Day gents!...
Was looking at this Texas/Seattle game...Seattle now (-126) and the O/U 9.5...
I know Texas is on the borderline list...BUT...Tommy Malone should not be favored here...I just don't see it...throw on top of that the fact that Seattle is the worst defensive team in baseball by a VERY big margin...
Seattle...
7-23 in their last 30...
5-15 in their last 20...
1-9 in their last 10...
Vs teams with a .500 or better record...12-30...
They have gone from a +30 to a -49 in run differential in just a 6 week period...
Strong lean to Texas here...may or may not play it but it sure is calling out to me...
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Thank you gentlemen!...
Hope you all crush today!...
Was looking at this Texas/Seattle game...Seattle now (-126) and the O/U 9.5...
I know Texas is on the borderline list...BUT...Tommy Malone should not be favored here...I just don't see it...throw on top of that the fact that Seattle is the worst defensive team in baseball by a VERY big margin...
Seattle...
7-23 in their last 30...
5-15 in their last 20...
1-9 in their last 10...
Vs teams with a .500 or better record...12-30...
They have gone from a +30 to a -49 in run differential in just a 6 week period...
Strong lean to Texas here...may or may not play it but it sure is calling out to me...
Ok..I'm going ahead with the Texas (+109) money line play for 5 units...
I'll take my chances here that Lance Lynn grinds out a good 5/6 innings and the bullpen throws like they have been recently...decent form...
And...Seattle does what Seattle does...finds ways to lose games...
Please be aware that while this is a RDS play...it is also a borderline play...borderline plays are 2-0 today and going for the Texas win will make them 3-0......
Best of luck...
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Ok..I'm going ahead with the Texas (+109) money line play for 5 units...
I'll take my chances here that Lance Lynn grinds out a good 5/6 innings and the bullpen throws like they have been recently...decent form...
And...Seattle does what Seattle does...finds ways to lose games...
Please be aware that while this is a RDS play...it is also a borderline play...borderline plays are 2-0 today and going for the Texas win will make them 3-0......
I think there needs to be some kind of check on the pitcher or how many times in a row they’ve won. Otherwise you can almost bet you’ll be fading the tigers marlins and orioles every day, while playing twins dodgers and maybe Astros/Yankees
All the super teams started streaking when we started and there was an inordinate amount of sweeps/near sweeps
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I think there needs to be some kind of check on the pitcher or how many times in a row they’ve won. Otherwise you can almost bet you’ll be fading the tigers marlins and orioles every day, while playing twins dodgers and maybe Astros/Yankees
All the super teams started streaking when we started and there was an inordinate amount of sweeps/near sweeps
The RDS went 7-5...the PODs went 5-4...dismal day through and through...couple of close ones but that's the way it goes...
Overall now the RDS is 166-98 and PODs are 59-24 after 12 days of tracking...
Must be a data point you can use to refine even further to weed out some noise and make your accuracy level more consistent over time , probably with fewer selections , but at a higher win rate.
In CFB , I prescreen all matchups with a simple criteria that is targeted enough to weed out close to 80 % of all matchups as " No Plays " . Then I can also see the top 10 and cap them in much greater detail. It saves me a lot of time capping a weekly 45 or so games. But primarilly tells which matchups are not likely to provide me with an accurate result. I use a similar method for MLB as well.
GL Today , smack
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Day 28 is complete...
The RDS went 7-5...the PODs went 5-4...dismal day through and through...couple of close ones but that's the way it goes...
Overall now the RDS is 166-98 and PODs are 59-24 after 12 days of tracking...
Must be a data point you can use to refine even further to weed out some noise and make your accuracy level more consistent over time , probably with fewer selections , but at a higher win rate.
In CFB , I prescreen all matchups with a simple criteria that is targeted enough to weed out close to 80 % of all matchups as " No Plays " . Then I can also see the top 10 and cap them in much greater detail. It saves me a lot of time capping a weekly 45 or so games. But primarilly tells which matchups are not likely to provide me with an accurate result. I use a similar method for MLB as well.
Braves should be a nationals or no play game. while the braves do well vs. stars, a short -120 line on fried yells trap. also teams who win SNB consistently perform poorly in their next game.
I'm a braves fan
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Braves should be a nationals or no play game. while the braves do well vs. stars, a short -120 line on fried yells trap. also teams who win SNB consistently perform poorly in their next game.
Does a high ML ever cancel out a play? Good luck smack!
I have not, to this point, removed or made borderline a RDS selection simply for having a high ML...
Might be something to consider in the future...
I didn't want to tweak too many things at the same time without giving the system time to perform with its criteria set...only have about 3-4 weeks now of using the same setup...
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:
Does a high ML ever cancel out a play? Good luck smack!
I have not, to this point, removed or made borderline a RDS selection simply for having a high ML...
Might be something to consider in the future...
I didn't want to tweak too many things at the same time without giving the system time to perform with its criteria set...only have about 3-4 weeks now of using the same setup...
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