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Runn Differential League Snapshot... 4-27-19...

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Posted: #326
Quote Originally Posted by ibacku:

Correct...the criteria for two (+) run differential teams is 20 or more for it to be a play...the difference in this game is 19 so it is a NO play...The criteria for one (+) team and one (-) run differential team is the same at 20...however...The criteria for two (-) run differential teams is 30 ...

then clev should be a no play +25 diff btwn two neg teams


Correct...thanks for finding that mistake...revised RDS plays below...Cleveland was already removed from the PODs for being a borderline play...

Milwaukee (+14) at Pittsburgh (-64)
Texas (+19) vs K.C. (-46)
Cincinnati (+42) at Washington (-26)
Atlanta (0) vs Detroit (-88)
Chicago Cubs (+50) at St. Louis (+15)
LA Angels (-6) at Seattle (-58)
NYY (+77) vs Boston (+30)
Colorado (+8) vs Toronto (-59)
Houston (+93) at Oakland (+28)
S.D. (-16) vs Miami (-86)
LA Dodgers (+85) vs Philadelphia (+30)

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Posted: #327

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Quote Originally Posted by ibacku:

Correct...the criteria for two (+) run differential teams is 20 or more for it to be a play...the difference in this game is 19 so it is a NO play...The criteria for one (+) team and one (-) run differential team is the same at 20...however...The criteria for two (-) run differential teams is 30 ... then clev should be a no play +25 diff btwn two neg teams
Correct...thanks for finding that mistake...revised RDS plays below...Cleveland was already removed from the PODs for being a borderline play...Milwaukee (+14) at Pittsburgh (-64)Texas (+19) vs K.C. (-46)Cincinnati (+42) at Washington (-26)Atlanta (0) vs Detroit (-88)Chicago Cubs (+50) at St. Louis (+15)LA Angels (-6) at Seattle (-58)NYY (+77) vs Boston (+30)Colorado (+8) vs Toronto (-59)Houston (+93) at Oakland (+28)S.D. (-16) vs Miami (-86)LA Dodgers (+85) vs Philadelphia (+30)

just trying to help that's all....so on so on

 
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Posted: #328
Good luck smack!
 
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Posted: #329
Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:

Good luck smack!

Thanks Tinfoils!...hope the great game treated you right today brutha!......

Day 32 of the RDS is in the books..the main system went 8-3 and now stand with an overall record of 192-124...

The PODs went 6-1 and now have a 17 day record of 80-44...

The borderline plays went 2-2...this looks much better and much more like a typical day usually goes...I hope we are back in form for a good bit...



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Posted: #330
Well Done , smack  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #331
Good morning gentlemen!...Day 33 of the RDS is here...

Minnesota (+107) at T.B. Devil Rays (+80)
Cleveland (-14) at CWSox (-45)
Milwaukee (+16) at Pittsburgh (-66)
Texas (+23) vs K.C. (-50)
Cincinnati (+39) vs Washington (-23)
Atlanta (+5) vs Detroit (-93)
Chicago Cubs (+47) at St. Louis (+18)
LA Angels (-3) at Seattle (-61)
NYY (+79) vs Boston (+28)
Colorado (+10) vs Toronto (-61)
Houston (+97) at Oakland (+24)
S.D. (-22) vs Miami (-80)
LA Dodgers (+86) vs Philadelphia (+29)
Arizona (+42) vs NYM (-15)

Cleveland sneaks back in today by a single run so take care with them...

The borderlines are...

Minnesota
Cleveland
Cubs
LA Angels
S.D.
NYY

Thus, the Plays of the Day are...

Cincinnati
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Texas
Colorado
Houston
Arizona
LA Dodgers

Best of luck today gentlemen!...

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Posted: #332
Hey smack what do you do with the heavy favorites bet -15 or -1. Thanks great job
 
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Posted: #333
Quote Originally Posted by haymo:

Hey smack what do you do with the heavy favorites bet -15 or -1. Thanks great job

My book doesn't offer the -1...wish they did...so I will at times take a -1.5...however...

Usually on those heavy faves, I pick one or two out for a parlay or use them as fill in plays on the 3 or 4 team parlays...

Never play them on the money line...

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Posted: #334

Can you post your parlays..clover today ...

 
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Posted: #335
Quote Originally Posted by Bigten51:

Can you post your parlays..clover today ...


Actually didn't have any today...not liking the card too much...will post em now and then in the future...

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Posted: #336
Day 33 of the RDS is coming to an end soon...all of the POD games have completed with just the formality of the end of the Miami/S.D. game as Miami is leading 9-1 in the 9th inning and a couple of innings left in the Boston/NYY game with Boston leading 6-2 in the top of the 8th inning..of course...ANYTHING is possible so I may have to revise these numbers...

But I'm going with them for now...

The RDS appears to be finishing today with a record of 9-5...Overall record will be 201-129...

But even better ...the PODs went 7-1 for their SECOND CONSECUTIVE 1 loss day going a BOOKIE CRUSHING 13-2 in the last 2 days after recovering from a 4 day down turn...

The overall record for the PODs now stands at 87-45!!.......

Now THAT is what I am talking about!...Back to it's old ways!!......

I was pretty bummed out during that 4 day stretch of regression...I'm not gonna lie......

But it appears that the good times have returned...it can be difficult not to get to high in the good times and not too low in the bad times but it's a MUST if you are going to grind out the long season...No doubt, there will be other bad streaks..this is why bankroll management is a KEY...you can't get out of line on any ONE DAY...just stay steady with the occasional parlay shot here and there...

The big swings are what end up killing the degenerate gamblers...and the only difference between us and those animals is PATIENCE and BANKROLL MANAGEMENT......

Here's to keeping it going, my Covers bruthas!...

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Posted: #337

 

sexy AF

 
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Posted: #338
I posted this in another thread where Treyinventor had stated he was going to quit better on baseball as it was just too difficult...

LogCabin...that beacon of hope and inspiration...*love you brutha, just keeping it real*...added his usual clarity and encouragement to Trey and was advising him basically that he agreed he should quit...

I stated the following...

"Many valid points and solid advice here...and, imo, the great majority of gamblers are undisciplined with poor bankroll management and doomed to failure...

But...that being said...there is much value in playing a system in baseball...something that takes the emotion and chasing and reduces it...takes the variance and smooths it out...gives a bettor a better opportunity to motivate themselves to be disciplined in units wagered and number of games wagered....

Thus, I am making a strong effort to develop one this year...may take more than one year and might not be profitable every year...but the general theory is that I want to bet WITH the books in the majority or even greater majority of the games I play..."

I wanted to expound a bit more on this here in my thread so that people who never see Trey's thread don't miss it...

Sports gambling/wagering/betting is not for everyone...it may not even be for you...this is a hard truth and difficult for many to accept...

I understand that you and me want to succeed...to win...we have a drive in us, as men, to compete, succeed, win...at SOMETHING..

When we are young, these desires are developed and find outlets in many ways...sports, academics...society cultivates those in particular and props them up...but only a select few reach the top in these endeavors...

As we get a few years out of school... winning at sports betting...poker...these two in particular have a certain allure that certainly draws men to them...because the way you keep score is cold, hard CASH...and the bragging rights allow you to feel successful..the winnings in your pocket confirm this...and it feels good...

But again, only a few select individuals, a relatively few percentage wise, are able to turn a profit long term in these activities...Some estimate less than only 10% are profitable long term at sports wagering...there's a reason why the bookies and Vegas want your business....odds are in their favor that you will lose money......

But why...why do most lose? And how can you get out of that loser group and get into the winner group long term?...

Continued....


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Posted: #339
In my opinion, the biggest reason most gamblers lose money long term can be boiled down into a few important criteria..

Poor Bankroll Management
...a huge, huge factor...so many play too much of their bankroll per play or just play out of the "life roll"...both very, very bad...

Bad Discipline
...Sub categories of this include chasing, playing too many games, getting greedy and trying to hit a big score...many others...

Emotion
Might be clear and might be a sub category of Bad Discipline but I feel it is worthy of its own category.  Emotional wagering is much different that wagering with your "gut"...if emotions get in the way of reason, it usually leads to a bad wager...

Lack of knowledge/inexperience
Pretty much self explanatory...if you have no idea what you are wagering on and have no plan...you fail to plan, so you are planning to fail...quite a bit of wagering is about making an educated guess in an attempt to be correct more times than you are incorrect...but the foundations of your guesses have to be based on solid information and/or experience...

What type of wagering can/could help with all of these...?...

System wagering...

Develop a system where you have criteria established that basically make the selections for you...

This removes emotion, eliminates chasing, it's much easier to control bankroll management as you can see exactly how many wagers the system has produced and you can divide your daily wagering bankroll up between those exact plays...and by analyzing how the system does, where it wins and loses, you can build experience through the season that pays off in the long run...

What factors should the system have that COULD make it successful?...

1.  Play with the house/books...wouldn't you want to be playing with or on the side of the books?...since they usually win long term, in general, I want to be playing the side that THEY think is going to win...not the side that Joe Q. Public thinks is going to win...Newsflash ...long term, favorites win more than underdogs...!!!

2.  Build a foundation with key stats...Run differential was my key stat that I used to lay the foundation of this system...In this baseball era where juiced balls fly off the bats of supposedly non steroid taking players and any home run record is susceptible to being smashed on any given day/month/year...seemed like a good thing to look at teams that can score more runs...pitching is not at a premium and teams seem to no longer care about strikeouts...as long as you can hit the BOMB...

3.  Flexibility...more than any other sport, baseball is a game of streaks...sometimes, there is no way to explain it...you MUST identify streaks and jump on/off as you find them...what are the keys to finding streaks?...Might be just as simple as starting as win/loss record over last 10/20/30 games but will quickly get important to identify key players out with an injury that could put a team on a bad streak...

Much more on all this as the year goes on...can't ever hurt to review and discuss anything that makes us better at what we are trying to do...beat the books, my bruthas!...

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Posted: #340

Nice score and insight smack!

Nowadays I bet more on favorites than before but I think you can bet underdogs with similar success, it just implies a different way of thinking. Betting dogs is hard because you lose more often. But betting favorites is hard too because it's more expensive....so you got to stick with what fits better in your mental process.

I mean...when you look deep in stats, you see that odds are pretty accurate but just wrong enough to make you lose long term if you flat bet every favorites or every dog.

Your record speaks for itself: picking favorites (or, dare I say, REAL favorites) is a way to go, the one some of us are comfortable with, at least.

 

Keep up the good work clover

 
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Posted: #341
Day 34 of the RDS...running a bit late...

Chicago Cubs (+46) vs LA Angels (+7)
LA Dodgers (+94) at Arizona (+48)
Philadelphia (+21) at S.D. (-28)
Houston (+99) at Seattle (-71)

Borderlines...

LA Dodgers
Philadelphia

Thus, the plays of the day...

Cubs
Houston

Good luck!

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Posted: #342
GL Today , smack  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #343

 
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Posted: #344

Smack, love your insight and willingness to help everyone succeed. The write-up on gambling is repetitive, but never ever gets old. It's a great sentiment to be reminded of when things are going great, and when we gamblers are full of defeat. There are those of us gamblers who can manage our dopamine requirements, and those of us that can't. Having a system levels out all the ups/downs, the rollercoaster ride of peaks and valleys, it lets you see things clearly! Without fog.

The fact you've spent so much time/effort at creating/tweaking/tracking/posting RDS is amazing and are sharing it with other members for FREE. Kudos, truly one of a kind.

Cheers Smack

 
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Posted: #345
Appreciate all the kind words, gentlemen...

Time to lock up a Houston winner tonight for a 2-0 day in the PODs and a 3 day record of 15-2...!

Let's get it done!...

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Posted: #346
Day 34 of the RDS is in the books...the system went 3-1 and now stands at 204-130...

The PODs went 2-0 and now stand at 89-45 on day 19 of their tracking...In the last 3 days, the PODs have gone 15-2......

Borderline plays went 1-1...

Small card but the results were excellent...on to tomorrow!...

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Posted: #347
Day 35...I'm going to put this out early as I don't want to be late with it tomorrow...

Atlanta (+8) at Pittsburgh (-68)
NYY (+76) at Toronto (-65)
Minnesota (+109) at Cleveland (-16)
NYM (-21) vs S.F. (-76)
T.B. Devil Rays (+78) at Detroit (-96)
 Milwaukee (+18) vs Miami (-74)
Boston (+31) at K.C. (-54)
Texas (+27) vs Baltimore (+21)
Chicago Cubs (+53) vs Colorado (+14)
LA Dodgers (+96) at Arizona (+46)
Oakland (+22) at LA Angels (0)
Philadelphia (+15) at S.D. (-22)
Houston (+101) at Seattle (-73)

Borderlines are ...

Minnesota
NYM
TX
Cubs
LA Dodgers
Oakland
Philadelphia

Thus, the PODs are...

Atlanta
NYY
T.B. Devil Rays
Milwaukee
Boston
Houston

I do like the card today...will probably have a parlay later on and will post it, if so...

Good luck for Tuesday gentlemen!...

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Posted: #348

 

 

 

hi, do you ever bet dogs with this kinda system or is it always favorites?

 
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Posted: #349
Good Luck Today , smack  
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Posted: #350

Thank for posting early. Looking forward to your parlay clover

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