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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Runn Differential League Snapshot... 4-27-19...

    «First Previous 151617 ... 192021 Next Last»
    Xaquun
    smacksmiter
    Skware
    WISEGUY36
    nothin9g
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 36947
    Posts: 523
    «First Previous 151617 ... 192021 Next Last»
     
    Xaquun
    Xaquun
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    Posted: Jun. 4, 2019 - 10:26 AM ET #351

    another question too...lets say minnesota is + 109 and cleveland is - 16..should this be POD? or how much you factor other things than raw batting power? just curious :D
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    another question too...lets say minnesota is + 109 and cleveland is - 16..should this be POD? or how much you factor other things than raw batting power? just curious :D
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 4, 2019 - 10:55 AM ET #352

    Quote Originally Posted by Xaquun:

    another question too...lets say minnesota is + 109 and cleveland is - 16..should this be POD? or how much you factor other things than raw batting power? just curious :D

    Occasionally, the system will have a small favorite...but the great majority it produces are favorites...only makes sense since these teams have big run differential advantages...

    Minnesota would normally be a POD but is not because of the pitching matchup...imo, it favors Cleveland enough to put Minny into the borderline category...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xaquun:

    another question too...lets say minnesota is + 109 and cleveland is - 16..should this be POD? or how much you factor other things than raw batting power? just curious :D

    Occasionally, the system will have a small favorite...but the great majority it produces are favorites...only makes sense since these teams have big run differential advantages...

    Minnesota would normally be a POD but is not because of the pitching matchup...imo, it favors Cleveland enough to put Minny into the borderline category...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 4, 2019 - 10:59 AM ET #353

    Parlay for today...

    Atlanta -170
    Milwaukee -182
    T.B. Devil Rays -1.5  .,., -148
    Boston  -1.5.... -119
    NYY -18

    $100 pays $1076...

    The PODs have been hitting at a crazy rate so they might pop another 6-0...hey, it could happen!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Parlay for today...

    Atlanta -170
    Milwaukee -182
    T.B. Devil Rays -1.5  .,., -148
    Boston  -1.5.... -119
    NYY -18

    $100 pays $1076...

    The PODs have been hitting at a crazy rate so they might pop another 6-0...hey, it could happen!...

     
    Xaquun
    Xaquun
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    Posted: Jun. 4, 2019 - 12:32 PM ET #354

    ok ty for answer. do you count heavy juiced favorites as moneyline win or RL btw? u play high favorites RL right?
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    ok ty for answer. do you count heavy juiced favorites as moneyline win or RL btw? u play high favorites RL right?
     
    Skware
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    Posted: Jun. 4, 2019 - 1:48 PM ET #355

    correction Texas (+27) Baltimore (-121) 
    not Texas (+27) vs Baltimore (+21)

    would that make this POD?
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    correction Texas (+27) Baltimore (-121) 
    not Texas (+27) vs Baltimore (+21)

    would that make this POD?
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 4, 2019 - 6:36 PM ET #356

    Quote Originally Posted by Skware:

    correction Texas (+27) Baltimore (-121) 
    not Texas (+27) vs Baltimore (+21)

    would that make this POD?

    That’s just a typo...Texas is a system play but is also a borderline play so not a POD....

    Xaquun, I often play RLs on big faves...the parlay has a couple in it...
    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skware:

    correction Texas (+27) Baltimore (-121) 
    not Texas (+27) vs Baltimore (+21)

    would that make this POD?

    That’s just a typo...Texas is a system play but is also a borderline play so not a POD....

    Xaquun, I often play RLs on big faves...the parlay has a couple in it...
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 4, 2019 - 10:07 PM ET #357

    Quote Originally Posted by Xaquun:

    ok ty for answer. do you count heavy juiced favorites as moneyline win or RL btw? u play high favorites RL right?

    Sorry, my friend...just realized I missed part of your question...all the system plays and PODs are selected by the system as probably winners...it doesn't care how you want to count them but basically all it is wanting to do is predict the money line winner of the game...

    It's up to us to decide how to play that with the big favorites...usually, I play them in a parlay as either ML or RL depending on how strong I feel they are...

    Hope that helps!

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xaquun:

    ok ty for answer. do you count heavy juiced favorites as moneyline win or RL btw? u play high favorites RL right?

    Sorry, my friend...just realized I missed part of your question...all the system plays and PODs are selected by the system as probably winners...it doesn't care how you want to count them but basically all it is wanting to do is predict the money line winner of the game...

    It's up to us to decide how to play that with the big favorites...usually, I play them in a parlay as either ML or RL depending on how strong I feel they are...

    Hope that helps!

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 1:45 AM ET #358

    Day 35 is complete...a dog day for sure...not a day to be playing the favorites, in general...

    The system plays went 7-6...overall now 211-136...

    The PODs went 3-3 ...overall now 92-48...

    Borderline plays went 4-3...

    And the parlay went down in flames...too many dogs winning today......

    On to the next one!...



    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Day 35 is complete...a dog day for sure...not a day to be playing the favorites, in general...

    The system plays went 7-6...overall now 211-136...

    The PODs went 3-3 ...overall now 92-48...

    Borderline plays went 4-3...

    And the parlay went down in flames...too many dogs winning today......

    On to the next one!...



     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 10:00 AM ET #359

    Day 36 of the RDS...

    Washington (-16) vs CW Sox (-47)
    LA Dodgers (+105) at Arizona (+37)
    Philadelphia (+18) at S.D. (-25)
    Atlanta (+15) at Pittsburgh (-75)
    NYY (+75) at Toronto (-64)
    Minnesota (+106) at Cleveland (-13)
    NYM (-27) vs S.F. (-70)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+75) at Detroit (-93)
    Milwaukee (+2) vs Miami (-58)
    Texas (+26) vs Baltimore (-120)
    Cubs (+56) vs Colorado (+11)
    Boston (+36) at K.C. (-59)
    Cincy (+39) at St. Louis (+16)
    Oakland (+24) at LA Angels (-2)
    Houston (+107) at Seattle (-79)

    Borderline Plays....

    Washington
    Minnesota
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Cubs
    Cincy

    Thus, the PODs are...

    LA Dodgers
    Philly
    NYY
    NYM
    Milwaukee
    Boston
    Oakland
    Houston

    Good luck!...


    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Day 36 of the RDS...

    Washington (-16) vs CW Sox (-47)
    LA Dodgers (+105) at Arizona (+37)
    Philadelphia (+18) at S.D. (-25)
    Atlanta (+15) at Pittsburgh (-75)
    NYY (+75) at Toronto (-64)
    Minnesota (+106) at Cleveland (-13)
    NYM (-27) vs S.F. (-70)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+75) at Detroit (-93)
    Milwaukee (+2) vs Miami (-58)
    Texas (+26) vs Baltimore (-120)
    Cubs (+56) vs Colorado (+11)
    Boston (+36) at K.C. (-59)
    Cincy (+39) at St. Louis (+16)
    Oakland (+24) at LA Angels (-2)
    Houston (+107) at Seattle (-79)

    Borderline Plays....

    Washington
    Minnesota
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Cubs
    Cincy

    Thus, the PODs are...

    LA Dodgers
    Philly
    NYY
    NYM
    Milwaukee
    Boston
    Oakland
    Houston

    Good luck!...


     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 10:02 AM ET #360

    Good Luck Today , smack  
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Good Luck Today , smack  
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 10:03 AM ET #361

    Dangit...didn't do my number count check...

    Corrected POD list...

    LA Dodgers
    Philly
    NYY
    NYM
    Milwaukee
    Boston
    Oakland
    Houston
    Atlanta
    Texas

    Gentlemen, that is one helluva POD list...
    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Dangit...didn't do my number count check...

    Corrected POD list...

    LA Dodgers
    Philly
    NYY
    NYM
    Milwaukee
    Boston
    Oakland
    Houston
    Atlanta
    Texas

    Gentlemen, that is one helluva POD list...
     
    nothin9g
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 10:47 AM ET #362

    which games u suggest to put in one parlay sir? 

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    which games u suggest to put in one parlay sir? 

     
    Bigten51
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 2:04 PM ET #363

    All of them clover

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    All of them clover

     
    Rizzledizzle
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 4:16 PM ET #364

    Congratulations Smack an_cheers, excellent work so far.  You have managed to accomplish something that none have yet which is getting me to come out of lurking and post. Took Covers years just to get me to make an account...

    I sped read the thread and i agree with 95%.  You recently made emphasis on bankroll/system/etc.  In this RDS of yours you have refined it with various criteria and Im curious if you would post all the current criteria that is used in detail for further review?  

    As far as the "borderline plays" that are removed to make the plays of the day (PODs), correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that there is nothing "systematic" about how those plays are determined and it is actually just your handicapping.  So realistically, the PODs is just your handicapping with run diff being a heavily weighted criteria.  If all of that seems right, have you considered using some secondary set of factors (or think back to what it is you primarily check for when capping) to determine the PODs to make it a true system?

    Lastly a comment after reading the thread, a few changes to the RDS already and several suggestions have followed.  You said it yourself and I agree with your comment about being careful about making to many changes to quick and trying to refine to much.  Many have made the fatal mistake of trying to make something better that was already good enough.

    (just in case someone should misread my post, he is doing an awesome job, so if you are interpreting something else, then you are misinterpreting the post)

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    Congratulations Smack an_cheers, excellent work so far.  You have managed to accomplish something that none have yet which is getting me to come out of lurking and post. Took Covers years just to get me to make an account...

    I sped read the thread and i agree with 95%.  You recently made emphasis on bankroll/system/etc.  In this RDS of yours you have refined it with various criteria and Im curious if you would post all the current criteria that is used in detail for further review?  

    As far as the "borderline plays" that are removed to make the plays of the day (PODs), correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that there is nothing "systematic" about how those plays are determined and it is actually just your handicapping.  So realistically, the PODs is just your handicapping with run diff being a heavily weighted criteria.  If all of that seems right, have you considered using some secondary set of factors (or think back to what it is you primarily check for when capping) to determine the PODs to make it a true system?

    Lastly a comment after reading the thread, a few changes to the RDS already and several suggestions have followed.  You said it yourself and I agree with your comment about being careful about making to many changes to quick and trying to refine to much.  Many have made the fatal mistake of trying to make something better that was already good enough.

    (just in case someone should misread my post, he is doing an awesome job, so if you are interpreting something else, then you are misinterpreting the post)

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 5:34 PM ET #365

    Quote Originally Posted by nothin9g:

    which games u suggest to put in one parlay sir? 


    My friend, I am still working on a possible parlay...however, my personal favorites from the POD list...in no particular order...

    Texas
    Houston
    Oakland
    Boston
    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by nothin9g:

    which games u suggest to put in one parlay sir? 


    My friend, I am still working on a possible parlay...however, my personal favorites from the POD list...in no particular order...

    Texas
    Houston
    Oakland
    Boston
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 5:48 PM ET #366

    Quote Originally Posted by Rizzledizzle:

    Congratulations Smack an_cheers, excellent work so far.  You have managed to accomplish something that none have yet which is getting me to come out of lurking and post. Took Covers years just to get me to make an account...

    I sped read the thread and i agree with 95%.  You recently made emphasis on bankroll/system/etc.  In this RDS of yours you have refined it with various criteria and Im curious if you would post all the current criteria that is used in detail for further review?  

    As far as the "borderline plays" that are removed to make the plays of the day (PODs), correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that there is nothing "systematic" about how those plays are determined and it is actually just your handicapping.  So realistically, the PODs is just your handicapping with run diff being a heavily weighted criteria.  If all of that seems right, have you considered using some secondary set of factors (or think back to what it is you primarily check for when capping) to determine the PODs to make it a true system?

    Lastly a comment after reading the thread, a few changes to the RDS already and several suggestions have followed.  You said it yourself and I agree with your comment about being careful about making to many changes to quick and trying to refine to much.  Many have made the fatal mistake of trying to make something better that was already good enough.

    (just in case someone should misread my post, he is doing an awesome job, so if you are interpreting something else, then you are misinterpreting the post)


    Amazing to see you posting, mah man!...and I greatly appreciate your comments/feedback...as well as your very sharp observations...

    Right now, as you detected, the RDS is a combination of very few select things...

    Run differential being the base...
    The "SRS" or Simple Rating System from baseball-reference DOT com...
    Finally, to produce the PODs... my personal capping of the pitcher matchups and other key observations based on recent events of  the teams playing...(win/loss, streaks, injuries, etc...)

    I have been looking at some other parameters to add in as "base" or "adjunct" capping factors...but as you pointed out so correctly, to add anything in TOO soon would affect my ability to judge the base system as started and running for the  last 35 days and 347 games...

    So I am being very cautious about that...the system just recently, after running for not even a month, had its first "serious" regression of a 4 day down turn...it is quite possible I may not add anything in this entire year...depends on how this goes as the season progresses...

    I would love to have a true system...one where I don't have any of my subjective biases and prejudices applies to the formula...that is the eventual goal, but for now...I'm happy with the results and just want to get bigger sample sets built up..

    Don't be a stranger!...Great to hear from you brutha!...



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    Quote Originally Posted by Rizzledizzle:

    Congratulations Smack an_cheers, excellent work so far.  You have managed to accomplish something that none have yet which is getting me to come out of lurking and post. Took Covers years just to get me to make an account...

    I sped read the thread and i agree with 95%.  You recently made emphasis on bankroll/system/etc.  In this RDS of yours you have refined it with various criteria and Im curious if you would post all the current criteria that is used in detail for further review?  

    As far as the "borderline plays" that are removed to make the plays of the day (PODs), correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that there is nothing "systematic" about how those plays are determined and it is actually just your handicapping.  So realistically, the PODs is just your handicapping with run diff being a heavily weighted criteria.  If all of that seems right, have you considered using some secondary set of factors (or think back to what it is you primarily check for when capping) to determine the PODs to make it a true system?

    Lastly a comment after reading the thread, a few changes to the RDS already and several suggestions have followed.  You said it yourself and I agree with your comment about being careful about making to many changes to quick and trying to refine to much.  Many have made the fatal mistake of trying to make something better that was already good enough.

    (just in case someone should misread my post, he is doing an awesome job, so if you are interpreting something else, then you are misinterpreting the post)


    Amazing to see you posting, mah man!...and I greatly appreciate your comments/feedback...as well as your very sharp observations...

    Right now, as you detected, the RDS is a combination of very few select things...

    Run differential being the base...
    The "SRS" or Simple Rating System from baseball-reference DOT com...
    Finally, to produce the PODs... my personal capping of the pitcher matchups and other key observations based on recent events of  the teams playing...(win/loss, streaks, injuries, etc...)

    I have been looking at some other parameters to add in as "base" or "adjunct" capping factors...but as you pointed out so correctly, to add anything in TOO soon would affect my ability to judge the base system as started and running for the  last 35 days and 347 games...

    So I am being very cautious about that...the system just recently, after running for not even a month, had its first "serious" regression of a 4 day down turn...it is quite possible I may not add anything in this entire year...depends on how this goes as the season progresses...

    I would love to have a true system...one where I don't have any of my subjective biases and prejudices applies to the formula...that is the eventual goal, but for now...I'm happy with the results and just want to get bigger sample sets built up..

    Don't be a stranger!...Great to hear from you brutha!...



     
    Rizzledizzle
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 6:01 PM ET #367

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    ...I'm happy with the results and just want to get bigger sample sets built up..Don't be a stranger!...Great to hear from you brutha!...

     

    Sent you a request

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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    ...I'm happy with the results and just want to get bigger sample sets built up..Don't be a stranger!...Great to hear from you brutha!...

     

    Sent you a request

     
    nothin9g
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 6:10 PM ET #368

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Quote Originally Posted by nothin9g:

    which games u suggest to put in one parlay sir? 
    My friend, I am still working on a possible parlay...however, my personal favorites from the POD list...in no particular order...TexasHoustonOakland Boston
    Thank u sir. i'll wait a bit more then. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Quote Originally Posted by nothin9g:

    which games u suggest to put in one parlay sir? 
    My friend, I am still working on a possible parlay...however, my personal favorites from the POD list...in no particular order...TexasHoustonOakland Boston
    Thank u sir. i'll wait a bit more then. 

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 6:25 PM ET #369

    Quote Originally Posted by nothin9g:

    My friend, I am still working on a possible parlay...however, my personal favorites from the POD list...in no particular order...TexasHoustonOakland Boston Thank u sir. i'll wait a bit more then. 


    Well, boiled it down to a core of 3 teams...with 2 honorable mentions that you may/may not want to add in...I will be playing the core teams in a 3 teamer for sure...may or may not play one with the other 2...

    Houston ML (-155) or RL -1.5 at (+101)...depending on how much you like them and how much risk you want to take...I believe they cover the RL tonight...

    Texas RL -1.5 (+116) or ML at (-171)...again, I think they cover the RL tonight...

    NYY RL -1.5 (-123)...comfortable with the RL here as well...

    Honorable mentions...

    Oakland (+117)
    Boston RL -1.5 (+136)

    Good luck tonight!...
    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by nothin9g:

    My friend, I am still working on a possible parlay...however, my personal favorites from the POD list...in no particular order...TexasHoustonOakland Boston Thank u sir. i'll wait a bit more then. 


    Well, boiled it down to a core of 3 teams...with 2 honorable mentions that you may/may not want to add in...I will be playing the core teams in a 3 teamer for sure...may or may not play one with the other 2...

    Houston ML (-155) or RL -1.5 at (+101)...depending on how much you like them and how much risk you want to take...I believe they cover the RL tonight...

    Texas RL -1.5 (+116) or ML at (-171)...again, I think they cover the RL tonight...

    NYY RL -1.5 (-123)...comfortable with the RL here as well...

    Honorable mentions...

    Oakland (+117)
    Boston RL -1.5 (+136)

    Good luck tonight!...
     
    nothin9g
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    Posted: Jun. 5, 2019 - 6:29 PM ET #370

    BOL peace_5

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    BOL peace_5

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2019 - 10:03 AM ET #371

    Welp, not a great night...

    The system went 7-7 and now is 218-143 after 36 days...

    The PODs went 4-6 and are now 96-54 after 21 days...

    Borderlines went 3-1...

    Parlay went down in flames.......

    Plays up later....


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    Welp, not a great night...

    The system went 7-7 and now is 218-143 after 36 days...

    The PODs went 4-6 and are now 96-54 after 21 days...

    Borderlines went 3-1...

    Parlay went down in flames.......

    Plays up later....


     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2019 - 10:05 AM ET #372

    Good Luck Today , smack  
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Good Luck Today , smack  
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2019 - 10:30 AM ET #373

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Good Luck Today , smack  

    Thanks as usual, Sir!......

    The plays for day 37 are in...

    NYM (-20) vs S.F. (-77)
    Atlanta (+12) at Pittsburgh (-72)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+79) at Detroit (-97)
    Boston (+44) at K.C. (-67)
    Cincy (+38) at St. Louis (+16)
    Milwaukee (-3) vs Miami (-53)
    Cubs (+57) vs Colorado (+10)
    Houston (+94) at Seattle (-66)
    Minnesota (+104) at Cleveland (-4)
    NYY (+71) at Toronto (-60)
    Texas (+27) vs Baltimore (-121)
    Oakland (+23) at LA Angels (-1)

    The borderline plays are ...

    Milwaukee
    Cincy
    Atlanta
    Oakland

    And the PODs are...

    T.B. Devil Rays
    Boston
    Cubs
    Houston
    Minny
    NYY
    Texas

    Good luck!...



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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Good Luck Today , smack  

    Thanks as usual, Sir!......

    The plays for day 37 are in...

    NYM (-20) vs S.F. (-77)
    Atlanta (+12) at Pittsburgh (-72)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+79) at Detroit (-97)
    Boston (+44) at K.C. (-67)
    Cincy (+38) at St. Louis (+16)
    Milwaukee (-3) vs Miami (-53)
    Cubs (+57) vs Colorado (+10)
    Houston (+94) at Seattle (-66)
    Minnesota (+104) at Cleveland (-4)
    NYY (+71) at Toronto (-60)
    Texas (+27) vs Baltimore (-121)
    Oakland (+23) at LA Angels (-1)

    The borderline plays are ...

    Milwaukee
    Cincy
    Atlanta
    Oakland

    And the PODs are...

    T.B. Devil Rays
    Boston
    Cubs
    Houston
    Minny
    NYY
    Texas

    Good luck!...



     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2019 - 10:32 AM ET #374

    Dangit...corrected POD list below...

    NYM
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Boston
    Cubs
    Houston
    Minny
    NYY
    Texas
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    Dangit...corrected POD list below...

    NYM
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Boston
    Cubs
    Houston
    Minny
    NYY
    Texas
     
     
    PCnfl
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    Posted: Jun. 6, 2019 - 10:58 AM ET #375

    Thanks for posting I have been following your thread for awhile now and you have been really knocking it out of the park lately. I have been using a system that is close to yours in hockey for betting totals for a couple of years now and have been doing pretty well. Do you use the same base of your system to bet totals in baseball,  or do you not bet totals? 

    Thanks Again
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    Thanks for posting I have been following your thread for awhile now and you have been really knocking it out of the park lately. I have been using a system that is close to yours in hockey for betting totals for a couple of years now and have been doing pretty well. Do you use the same base of your system to bet totals in baseball,  or do you not bet totals? 

    Thanks Again
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