Thanks for posting I have been following your thread for awhile now and you have been really knocking it out of the park lately. I have been using a system that is close to yours in hockey for betting totals for a couple of years now and have been doing pretty well. Do you use the same base of your system to bet totals in baseball, or do you not bet totals?
Thanks Again
I don't have a totals system but I do occasionally wager on them just based on personal handicapping...it's good to hear that you have something working in hockey...have you tried applying it to baseball yet?
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Quote Originally Posted by PCnfl:
Thanks for posting I have been following your thread for awhile now and you have been really knocking it out of the park lately. I have been using a system that is close to yours in hockey for betting totals for a couple of years now and have been doing pretty well. Do you use the same base of your system to bet totals in baseball, or do you not bet totals?
Thanks Again
I don't have a totals system but I do occasionally wager on them just based on personal handicapping...it's good to hear that you have something working in hockey...have you tried applying it to baseball yet?
I have started trying a system making just small bets not really finished tweaking it yet. But will continue to work on it, betting totals you have a lot less juice to worry about.
Keep up your good work and i will continue to follow your thread.
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I have started trying a system making just small bets not really finished tweaking it yet. But will continue to work on it, betting totals you have a lot less juice to worry about.
Keep up your good work and i will continue to follow your thread.
Smack - great thread. I usually don't bet baseball cause of the 162 game grind, but considering some wagering based on the system. I've noticed that the larger Vig plays will likely cancel out the great win % over time, so I am thinking of setting some groundrules for my wagers based on the RDL PODs. Would like your input:
For Vig -125 or less - play 1 unit on ML
Vig -126 to -150 - play 0.75 unit ML and 0.25 on RL
Vig -151 to -200 go 50/50 ML/RL
Above -200 only play RL
Good luck to you Sir. And GL to all - this thread is what makes Covers great.
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Smack - great thread. I usually don't bet baseball cause of the 162 game grind, but considering some wagering based on the system. I've noticed that the larger Vig plays will likely cancel out the great win % over time, so I am thinking of setting some groundrules for my wagers based on the RDL PODs. Would like your input:
For Vig -125 or less - play 1 unit on ML
Vig -126 to -150 - play 0.75 unit ML and 0.25 on RL
Vig -151 to -200 go 50/50 ML/RL
Above -200 only play RL
Good luck to you Sir. And GL to all - this thread is what makes Covers great.
Smack - great thread. I usually don't bet baseball cause of the 162 game grind, but considering some wagering based on the system. I've noticed that the larger Vig plays will likely cancel out the great win % over time, so I am thinking of setting some groundrules for my wagers based on the RDL PODs. Would like your input:
For Vig -125 or less - play 1 unit on ML
Vig -126 to -150 - play 0.75 unit ML and 0.25 on RL
Vig -151 to -200 go 50/50 ML/RL
Above -200 only play RL
Good luck to you Sir. And GL to all - this thread is what makes Covers great.
Sounds very good and very similar to what I do in a general sense...I do hate playing moneylines -150 and greater...-200 will almost always be a RL play for me as well...
As I have said a few times, I am using the large favorites as RL plays in parlays here and there...seems to be working well overall...
It seems lately that every time I post a parlay it loses...everytime I don't post it...it wins...like tonight...have Houston/NYY/Texas and it's looking pretty good...
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:
Smack - great thread. I usually don't bet baseball cause of the 162 game grind, but considering some wagering based on the system. I've noticed that the larger Vig plays will likely cancel out the great win % over time, so I am thinking of setting some groundrules for my wagers based on the RDL PODs. Would like your input:
For Vig -125 or less - play 1 unit on ML
Vig -126 to -150 - play 0.75 unit ML and 0.25 on RL
Vig -151 to -200 go 50/50 ML/RL
Above -200 only play RL
Good luck to you Sir. And GL to all - this thread is what makes Covers great.
Sounds very good and very similar to what I do in a general sense...I do hate playing moneylines -150 and greater...-200 will almost always be a RL play for me as well...
As I have said a few times, I am using the large favorites as RL plays in parlays here and there...seems to be working well overall...
It seems lately that every time I post a parlay it loses...everytime I don't post it...it wins...like tonight...have Houston/NYY/Texas and it's looking pretty good...
The borderline plays...a bit scary......I actually like the Devil Rays quite a bit today but don't want to take them if they are on this list...ugh..
Cubs
T.B. Devil Rays
LA Angels
Colorado
Thus, the PODs are...
NYY
Arizona
Minnesota
Atlanta
Houston
Milwaukee
LA Dodgers
Notes...
Miami has been on a helluva run lately going 7-3 in their last 10 and 13-7 in their last 20 games...they have raised their run differential from (-81) to (-57) in just 8 days...
The flip side of that is Cleveland and Arizona both going 8-12 in their last 20 and sliding in run differential...
Possible parlay..not locked in yet...
Arizona
Minnesota
Houston
LA Dodgers
Good luck today gents!...
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Nice Work , smack
Wiseguy3... ...
Day 38 is upon us gentlemen...let us begin...
Chicago Cubs (+55) vs St. Louis (+18)
NYY ( +75) at Cleveland (-12)
Arizona (+38) at Toronto (-64)
Colorado (+12) at NYM (-16)
Minnesota (+105) at Detroit (-102)
T.B. Devil Rays (+84) at Boston (+46)
Atlanta (+7) at Miami (-57)
Houston (+95) vs Baltimore (-122)
Milwaukee (+1) vs Pittsburgh (-67)
LA Angels (-4) vs Seattle (-67)
LA Dodgers (+104) at S.F. (-81)
The borderline plays...a bit scary......I actually like the Devil Rays quite a bit today but don't want to take them if they are on this list...ugh..
Cubs
T.B. Devil Rays
LA Angels
Colorado
Thus, the PODs are...
NYY
Arizona
Minnesota
Atlanta
Houston
Milwaukee
LA Dodgers
Notes...
Miami has been on a helluva run lately going 7-3 in their last 10 and 13-7 in their last 20 games...they have raised their run differential from (-81) to (-57) in just 8 days...
The flip side of that is Cleveland and Arizona both going 8-12 in their last 20 and sliding in run differential...
Just calculated the average money line of the PODs...of course, no line up on the Minnesota game, but all the others comes up to a somewhat "reasonable" ....
(-169)...
Minnesota will probably be a dog so this will most likely drop down to around -160...which, interestingly, has been around the number I find when I have calculated the average money lines on the PODs several times in the last week or two...
In general, it seems the average runs between -150 and -170 which, given there are some massive favorites in there, certainly seems like it could be worse than that more often than not...
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Just calculated the average money line of the PODs...of course, no line up on the Minnesota game, but all the others comes up to a somewhat "reasonable" ....
(-169)...
Minnesota will probably be a dog so this will most likely drop down to around -160...which, interestingly, has been around the number I find when I have calculated the average money lines on the PODs several times in the last week or two...
In general, it seems the average runs between -150 and -170 which, given there are some massive favorites in there, certainly seems like it could be worse than that more often than not...
The main system went 7-4 today and overall is now 234-150...
The PODs went a respectable 5-2 and are now 98-57 over 22 days of tracking...
Borderline games went 2-2 and Colorado, which was a borderline borderline game that I marked out of the PODs as my last cut...won the game...hate it when that happens...
Kind of amazing how the Dodgers just failed to show up tonight...... (-250) favorite...
On to the next one!...
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Day 38 is complete for the system...
The main system went 7-4 today and overall is now 234-150...
The PODs went a respectable 5-2 and are now 98-57 over 22 days of tracking...
Borderline games went 2-2 and Colorado, which was a borderline borderline game that I marked out of the PODs as my last cut...won the game...hate it when that happens...
Kind of amazing how the Dodgers just failed to show up tonight...... (-250) favorite...
Day 39 of the RDS is shining bright gentlemen! Let's GOOOO!!......
T.B. Devil Rays (+88) at Boston (+42)... Game 1
Arizona (+44) at Toronto (-70)
Milwaukee (+7) vs Pittsburgh (-73)
Houston (+96) vs Baltimore (-123)
NYY (+72) at Cleveland (-9)
T.B. Devil Rays (+88) at Boston (+42) ... Game 2
Cubs (+57) vs St. Louis (+16)
LA Dodgers (+103) at S.F. (-80)
Colorado (+16) at NYM (-20)
LA Angels (-8) vs Seattle (-63)
Borderline plays...
T.B. Devil Rays Game 1
Atlanta
T.B. Devil Rays Game 2
Cubs
LA Angels
Thus, the PODs are......
Arizona
Minnesota
Houston
NYY
Milwaukee
Colorado
LA Dodgers
A new feature I will be adding in today...might start doing it everyday if I have time...not based on any system, just my personal leans on O/U games...I will be playing some of them after I do some more research, but not all of them...
T.B. Devil Rays/Boston Game 1 OVER
Oakland/Texas Game 1 OVER
Baltimore/Houston OVER
Atlanta/Miami UNDER
St. Louis/Cubs UNDER
Oakland/Texas Game 2 OVER
Seattle/LA Angels OVER
Feeling a BIG day coming today...but...could just be that Papadeaux's salmon Caesar salad I had for dinner last night...pretty dang spicy if I do say so myself......
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Day 39 of the RDS is shining bright gentlemen! Let's GOOOO!!......
T.B. Devil Rays (+88) at Boston (+42)... Game 1
Arizona (+44) at Toronto (-70)
Milwaukee (+7) vs Pittsburgh (-73)
Houston (+96) vs Baltimore (-123)
NYY (+72) at Cleveland (-9)
T.B. Devil Rays (+88) at Boston (+42) ... Game 2
Cubs (+57) vs St. Louis (+16)
LA Dodgers (+103) at S.F. (-80)
Colorado (+16) at NYM (-20)
LA Angels (-8) vs Seattle (-63)
Borderline plays...
T.B. Devil Rays Game 1
Atlanta
T.B. Devil Rays Game 2
Cubs
LA Angels
Thus, the PODs are......
Arizona
Minnesota
Houston
NYY
Milwaukee
Colorado
LA Dodgers
A new feature I will be adding in today...might start doing it everyday if I have time...not based on any system, just my personal leans on O/U games...I will be playing some of them after I do some more research, but not all of them...
T.B. Devil Rays/Boston Game 1 OVER
Oakland/Texas Game 1 OVER
Baltimore/Houston OVER
Atlanta/Miami UNDER
St. Louis/Cubs UNDER
Oakland/Texas Game 2 OVER
Seattle/LA Angels OVER
Feeling a BIG day coming today...but...could just be that Papadeaux's salmon Caesar salad I had for dinner last night...pretty dang spicy if I do say so myself......
Day 38 is complete for the system...The main system went 7-4 today and overall is now 234-150...The PODs went a respectable 5-2 and are now 98-57 over 22 days of tracking...Borderline games went 2-2 and Colorado, which was a borderline borderline game that I marked out of the PODs as my last cut...won the game...hate it when that happens...Kind of amazing how the Dodgers just failed to show up tonight...... (-250) favorite...On to the next one!...
Great work Bro! (except the borderline games went 3-1, dont sell yourself or those records short )
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Day 38 is complete for the system...The main system went 7-4 today and overall is now 234-150...The PODs went a respectable 5-2 and are now 98-57 over 22 days of tracking...Borderline games went 2-2 and Colorado, which was a borderline borderline game that I marked out of the PODs as my last cut...won the game...hate it when that happens...Kind of amazing how the Dodgers just failed to show up tonight...... (-250) favorite...On to the next one!...
Great work Bro! (except the borderline games went 3-1, dont sell yourself or those records short )
I'm a bit concerned about the two Texas games...Since Joey Gallo went out with that oblique strain, the Rangers games have gone O/U at a 1-5 rate...they just aren't scoring like they did with him in the game...
That being said, these games with these pitching match ups could easily cruise over these numbers...Oakland should crush Palumbo in game 1 and despite the last good outing by Sampson, I see it as an anomaly...he should go back to the same pitcher he has been this year allowing an over .300 batting average to opposing teams...
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Adding in the numbers on these O/U leans...
T.B. Devil Rays/Boston Game 1 OVER 10.5
Oakland/Texas Game 1 OVER 11.5
Baltimore/Houston OVER 7.5
Atlanta/Miami UNDER 7.5
St. Louis/Cubs UNDER 7.5
Oakland/Texas Game 2 OVER 10.5
Seattle/LA Angels OVER 9.5
I'm a bit concerned about the two Texas games...Since Joey Gallo went out with that oblique strain, the Rangers games have gone O/U at a 1-5 rate...they just aren't scoring like they did with him in the game...
That being said, these games with these pitching match ups could easily cruise over these numbers...Oakland should crush Palumbo in game 1 and despite the last good outing by Sampson, I see it as an anomaly...he should go back to the same pitcher he has been this year allowing an over .300 batting average to opposing teams...
Great work Bro! (except the borderline games went 3-1, dont sell yourself or those records short )
Good catch there mah man...lol......
The parlay is in...play at your own risk...I'm taking a play that is outside of the system in the White Sox so be aware of that as well...didn't really look at the game since the system excluded it early on but I got a look at it after Weebles posted it and I do like it quite a bit...
Milwaukee (-162)
LA Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
CWSox (-138)
Houston -1.5 (-121)
Oakland/Texas Game 1 OVER 11.5 (+105)
$100 pays $1748...
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Quote Originally Posted by Rizzledizzle:
Great work Bro! (except the borderline games went 3-1, dont sell yourself or those records short )
Good catch there mah man...lol......
The parlay is in...play at your own risk...I'm taking a play that is outside of the system in the White Sox so be aware of that as well...didn't really look at the game since the system excluded it early on but I got a look at it after Weebles posted it and I do like it quite a bit...
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Keep up your good work and i will continue to follow your thread. 
...or 84%!!!...
...I actually like the Devil Rays quite a bit today but don't want to take them if they are on this list...ugh..
... (-250) favorite...
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