Cubs game is definitely an interesting one considering the weather element
@Martylee
I think it's (14-15 mph) blowing in. I've seen worse. Temp in low 50s, I've seen much worse. Carrasco scares no one these days. Hendricks first start?
As I said, I'm not a handicapper, I'm a math guy. My number is (8.55 runs), I've got to roll with it.
Good luck
Falcon Sports
@Martylee
I think it's (14-15 mph) blowing in. I've seen worse. Temp in low 50s, I've seen much worse. Carrasco scares no one these days. Hendricks first start?
As I said, I'm not a handicapper, I'm a math guy. My number is (8.55 runs), I've got to roll with it.
Good luck
Falcon Sports
Ok guys, since we flipped to page 2, I'm going to update everything.
Posted record at Covers April 7th through May 22. (85-93) (-$1360)
Not trying to hide this. I'm not selling anything.
I made some adjustments to my Power Totals model, so hopefully I'm back on track to hit my goals of around 105 plays per month, with a Win rate of (57.14%) Winners. This would give me over 10 units of profit per month, betting against a standard (-110) line.
Here we go with Day 3
Falcon Sports (Totals Only)
6-1 (+$980)
To win $200 on each
Thursday May 25 (posted earlier)
Tampa Bay Over 8.5 (-105) Caesars (projected 10.40 runs)
Cubs Over 7 (-105) Fanduel (projected 8.55 runs)
To win $200 on each
I scaled back my bet amounts, to take any unnecessary pressure off myself and just let my model do its thing. Im not a handicapper, I don't even consider my opinion on a game. I'm a math guy with a statistical model battling the books. I've got about 5 books available daily and with only $200 bets, it's easy for me to shop around.
I'll have one more total that I'll get down on later, I'm watching lines as I've got a few that are close to qualifying as plays but I'm monitoring my volume.
Good luck guys
Falcon Sports
Ok guys, since we flipped to page 2, I'm going to update everything.
Posted record at Covers April 7th through May 22. (85-93) (-$1360)
Not trying to hide this. I'm not selling anything.
I made some adjustments to my Power Totals model, so hopefully I'm back on track to hit my goals of around 105 plays per month, with a Win rate of (57.14%) Winners. This would give me over 10 units of profit per month, betting against a standard (-110) line.
Here we go with Day 3
Falcon Sports (Totals Only)
6-1 (+$980)
To win $200 on each
Thursday May 25 (posted earlier)
Tampa Bay Over 8.5 (-105) Caesars (projected 10.40 runs)
Cubs Over 7 (-105) Fanduel (projected 8.55 runs)
To win $200 on each
I scaled back my bet amounts, to take any unnecessary pressure off myself and just let my model do its thing. Im not a handicapper, I don't even consider my opinion on a game. I'm a math guy with a statistical model battling the books. I've got about 5 books available daily and with only $200 bets, it's easy for me to shop around.
I'll have one more total that I'll get down on later, I'm watching lines as I've got a few that are close to qualifying as plays but I'm monitoring my volume.
Good luck guys
Falcon Sports
Alright guys, here is what I have today.
Full Card (Totals Only) May 25
Tampa Bay Over 8.5 (-105) Caesars (projected 10.40 runs)
Cubs Over 7 (-105) Fanduel (projected 8.55 runs)
Yankees Over 8.5 (-125) Draftkings (projected 10.20 runs)
To win $200 on each
That's it today guys, spread out over three books. The Yankees was at Draftkings at a little extra juice but I caught good lines on the other two. I also got a little profit boost at Draftkings on that Yankee total but they really limit me on the boosts.
Good luck today guys
Falcon Sports
Alright guys, here is what I have today.
Full Card (Totals Only) May 25
Tampa Bay Over 8.5 (-105) Caesars (projected 10.40 runs)
Cubs Over 7 (-105) Fanduel (projected 8.55 runs)
Yankees Over 8.5 (-125) Draftkings (projected 10.20 runs)
To win $200 on each
That's it today guys, spread out over three books. The Yankees was at Draftkings at a little extra juice but I caught good lines on the other two. I also got a little profit boost at Draftkings on that Yankee total but they really limit me on the boosts.
Good luck today guys
Falcon Sports
@jimbojpc
Thanks
I just did a couple slight adjustments. Adjusted the Unders to a difference of (1.00) runs and the Overs to (1.5) runs.
I wanted a better balance between the two. I also am keeping a close eye on the volume. My plan calls for (105) Plays per month and I want to stay close to that number. It's a personal preference of mine.
Falcon Sports
@jimbojpc
Thanks
I just did a couple slight adjustments. Adjusted the Unders to a difference of (1.00) runs and the Overs to (1.5) runs.
I wanted a better balance between the two. I also am keeping a close eye on the volume. My plan calls for (105) Plays per month and I want to stay close to that number. It's a personal preference of mine.
Falcon Sports
@QBUN
No problem. What else is an old mostly retired guy gonna do.
Right now it's just a good hobby, that I'd like to make 2k per month from.
I have the model, I have the Bankroll, I have the books.
Nothing left but to do it.
So yeah, let's go
Falcon Sports
@QBUN
No problem. What else is an old mostly retired guy gonna do.
Right now it's just a good hobby, that I'd like to make 2k per month from.
I have the model, I have the Bankroll, I have the books.
Nothing left but to do it.
So yeah, let's go
Falcon Sports
Falcon Sports (Totals Only)
7-1 (+$1180)
To win $200 on each
Pending May 25
Yankees Over 8.5 (-125)
Cubs Over 7 (-105)
To win $200 on each
Out to grandkids soccer tonight, so pull us in boys.
Falcon Sports
Falcon Sports (Totals Only)
7-1 (+$1180)
To win $200 on each
Pending May 25
Yankees Over 8.5 (-125)
Cubs Over 7 (-105)
To win $200 on each
Out to grandkids soccer tonight, so pull us in boys.
Falcon Sports
Falcon Sports (Totals Only)
8-2 (+$1130)
To win $200 on each
First total for Friday May 26
Cubs Over 7 (-105) Draftkings
To win $200
Bet this at 5 am cst at Draftkings
I have this projected at (9.24 runs)
More later today
Falcon Sports
Falcon Sports (Totals Only)
8-2 (+$1130)
To win $200 on each
First total for Friday May 26
Cubs Over 7 (-105) Draftkings
To win $200
Bet this at 5 am cst at Draftkings
I have this projected at (9.24 runs)
More later today
Falcon Sports
Adding Friday May 26
Colorado Under 11.5 (-115) Fanduel (projected 9.68 runs)
To win $200 on each
There will be 1-2 more plays added later today.
Falcon Sports
Adding Friday May 26
Colorado Under 11.5 (-115) Fanduel (projected 9.68 runs)
To win $200 on each
There will be 1-2 more plays added later today.
Falcon Sports
Alright guys, quick little update.
Welcome to (Day 4) with The Falcon
Falcon Sports (Totals Only)
8-2 (+$1130)
To win $200 on each
(Totals Only) for Friday May 26
Cubs Over 7 (-105) Draftkings (projected at 9.24 runs)
Colorado Under 11.5 (-115) Fanduel (projected at 9.68 runs)
Baltimore Over 8.5 (-115) Draftkings (projected at 10.74 runs)
To win $200 on each
I anticipate one more play added this afternoon. So check back if interested.
Basically had to stay right in step with my model. It's funny I pick up things as I go. The books appear to have adjusted the totals down one notch.
Good luck guys, one more this afternoon. I want my volume at 105 plays every 30 days.
Falcon Sports
Alright guys, quick little update.
Welcome to (Day 4) with The Falcon
Falcon Sports (Totals Only)
8-2 (+$1130)
To win $200 on each
(Totals Only) for Friday May 26
Cubs Over 7 (-105) Draftkings (projected at 9.24 runs)
Colorado Under 11.5 (-115) Fanduel (projected at 9.68 runs)
Baltimore Over 8.5 (-115) Draftkings (projected at 10.74 runs)
To win $200 on each
I anticipate one more play added this afternoon. So check back if interested.
Basically had to stay right in step with my model. It's funny I pick up things as I go. The books appear to have adjusted the totals down one notch.
Good luck guys, one more this afternoon. I want my volume at 105 plays every 30 days.
Falcon Sports
@cbbanalysts
I hear ya but I'm just a numbers guy. I have (9.68 runs) which means my model is looking for 10 runs to be scored.
I'm also a little worried about the weather.
GL
Falcon Sports
@cbbanalysts
I hear ya but I'm just a numbers guy. I have (9.68 runs) which means my model is looking for 10 runs to be scored.
I'm also a little worried about the weather.
GL
Falcon Sports
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