Happy Memorial Day guys. (Day 7) for the thread. It's a good day to start to follow or FADE if you like.
My Power Totals baseball model has had a very good start (14-5) these first six day but I personally veered off the path 3 times and of course lost all three of those to make the thread record (14-8).
Moving forward in the thread it's baseball totals only, no other sports until at least September and no more prop experiments.
For any new readers, here are the projections every 30 days.
105 plays
57.14% Winners
(-110) avg juice
To win $200 on each
If I hit these projections the first 30 days (which started May 23), I'll clear (+10.50 units of profit) which will mean about ($2100). This is where I should be on June 21 if all works out. At that point, I'll recalculate and possibly slightly increase my wager amounts.
So let's see if The Falcon really has the model to do this. It could get boring in here but most times winning is boring.
If you are following, pay attention to the overnight lines. I'm only wagering to win $200 on each, so I am not having trouble getting that down as soon as they hang a number. Just an example, alot of lines are up for Tuesday right now.
I update the model daily but after that it's a 100% automated process. I am not going to be involved in any decision making. Bad things happen when I get involved, just look at my personal three losses in the record.
So I publicly apologize to the Power Totals Model for messing up and promise to keep myself out of the picture.
You guys have a great Memorial Day and Good luck with your wagers
Falcon Sports
1
Happy Memorial Day guys. (Day 7) for the thread. It's a good day to start to follow or FADE if you like.
My Power Totals baseball model has had a very good start (14-5) these first six day but I personally veered off the path 3 times and of course lost all three of those to make the thread record (14-8).
Moving forward in the thread it's baseball totals only, no other sports until at least September and no more prop experiments.
For any new readers, here are the projections every 30 days.
105 plays
57.14% Winners
(-110) avg juice
To win $200 on each
If I hit these projections the first 30 days (which started May 23), I'll clear (+10.50 units of profit) which will mean about ($2100). This is where I should be on June 21 if all works out. At that point, I'll recalculate and possibly slightly increase my wager amounts.
So let's see if The Falcon really has the model to do this. It could get boring in here but most times winning is boring.
If you are following, pay attention to the overnight lines. I'm only wagering to win $200 on each, so I am not having trouble getting that down as soon as they hang a number. Just an example, alot of lines are up for Tuesday right now.
I update the model daily but after that it's a 100% automated process. I am not going to be involved in any decision making. Bad things happen when I get involved, just look at my personal three losses in the record.
So I publicly apologize to the Power Totals Model for messing up and promise to keep myself out of the picture.
You guys have a great Memorial Day and Good luck with your wagers
Hopefully were cleared and ready for takeoff. Fly with The Falcon boys.
We are 22 plays into hopefully a long journey. Win rate close to 64% and I want it to remain over the (57.14%) mark.
Long-term ROI should run between (9-10%) which would be off the charts.
Reminder as games go final today, I can calculate tomorrow's games , so when I have a huge edge, I'll fire away, so heads up for Tuesday's wagers. I love getting in early and crushing that closing line.
Good luck guys
Falcon Sports
1
@QBUN
Yes sir
Hopefully were cleared and ready for takeoff. Fly with The Falcon boys.
We are 22 plays into hopefully a long journey. Win rate close to 64% and I want it to remain over the (57.14%) mark.
Long-term ROI should run between (9-10%) which would be off the charts.
Reminder as games go final today, I can calculate tomorrow's games , so when I have a huge edge, I'll fire away, so heads up for Tuesday's wagers. I love getting in early and crushing that closing line.
For anyone following. There are 4 series that do not play today, they start tomorrow, so I can run those four now. I plan to play my Top 3 Totals tomorrow night and we have one very strong play showing up for Tuesday night. I'll be jumping on this play later today. So keep an eye out if interested. I don't post it until my bet is in, I'm sure u can understand that. Back later today Falcon Sports
looking foward to those strong plays for tuesday night
0
Quote Originally Posted by MITM:
For anyone following. There are 4 series that do not play today, they start tomorrow, so I can run those four now. I plan to play my Top 3 Totals tomorrow night and we have one very strong play showing up for Tuesday night. I'll be jumping on this play later today. So keep an eye out if interested. I don't post it until my bet is in, I'm sure u can understand that. Back later today Falcon Sports
looking foward to those strong plays for tuesday night
Thanks guys, here is what I got down on last night by betting very early.
Memorial Day
Cubs Over 7.5 (-120) Fanduel (model has this projected at 10.65 runs)
Houston Under 8.5 (-115) Draftkings ( projected at 7.15 runs)
Oakland Over 8 (-115) Draftkings (projected at 9.75 runs)
I'll be getting down this afternoon on a strong play for Tuesday. I'll be on my Top 3 Power Totals Tuesday and will get all of them up ASAP. My model will update as soon as games go final today. Meaning as soon as the Cleveland/Baltimore game goes final today, I can get tomorrow's projected total for Cleveland/Baltimore.
Good luck today guys
Falcon Sports
0
Thanks guys, here is what I got down on last night by betting very early.
Memorial Day
Cubs Over 7.5 (-120) Fanduel (model has this projected at 10.65 runs)
Houston Under 8.5 (-115) Draftkings ( projected at 7.15 runs)
Oakland Over 8 (-115) Draftkings (projected at 9.75 runs)
I'll be getting down this afternoon on a strong play for Tuesday. I'll be on my Top 3 Power Totals Tuesday and will get all of them up ASAP. My model will update as soon as games go final today. Meaning as soon as the Cleveland/Baltimore game goes final today, I can get tomorrow's projected total for Cleveland/Baltimore.
Not much to say. Hopefully the regression is Over. The win percentage for the thread is exactly as projected at (57.14%) Winners. But there are three losses in the record that were not model plays.
We should be due for an upturn tomorrow
Good luck guys
Falcon Sports
1
Falcon Sports Power Totals Model
16-12 (+$490)
57.14% Winners
To win $200 on each
May 31
Giants Under 8 (-105) Fanduel
Mets Under 9 (-115) Fanduel
Yankees Over 7.5 (-110) Draftkings
To win $200 on each
Not much to say. Hopefully the regression is Over. The win percentage for the thread is exactly as projected at (57.14%) Winners. But there are three losses in the record that were not model plays.
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