(Totals Only) for Today

@QBUN

 I still see 7 most everywhere.

I'll have one more later today, more than likely.

Falcon Sports 

I'm in! Got the CUBBIES @ 7 ....

@MITM

 cubs/reds fg is 6.5 now

I'm out and about right now,  so I'll update later. 

Last Total for Friday May 26

Arizona Under 9 (-120) Draftkings

To win $200

Rojected at (7.90)

Falcon Sports 

Alright guys, here is the update for Friday May 26

If your following this, I hope to run it for the remainder of the MLB season. 

I'm a statistical model builder, I am not a handicapper, I don't even watch the games. I'm a math guy, I love building models to beat the books. What I'm running here is my Power Totals model. 

Here are the monthly projections for my model. 

105 plays per month 

57.14% Winners 

(-110) avg juice

To win $200 on each play

Those are my projections. If I hit them, we should all be happy. I'm not a high volume guy. I love the 7 plays every two days range. This gets me to the number of 105 per month. 

Now welcome to (Day 4) with The Falcon 

Falcon Sports (Totals Only)

8-2 (+$1130)

To win $200 on each 

Pending May 26

Cubs Over 7 (-105) my number (9.24)

Baltimore Over 8.5 (-115) my number (10.74)

Colorado Under 11.5 (-115) my number (9.68)

Arizona Under 9 (-120) my number (7.90)

To win $200 on each

That's it for Friday, any questions or comments fire away.

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

A 57% win rate at -110 would be remarkable. I’m curious what kind of sample size and over what time period your backtesting covered?

Appreciate your work and will be following along. 

Nice hit on reds over. Emphasis on reds

@WizardOfOdds123

I actually finished my Power Totals model late last season and it did very well the last month and post season. I've had a couple hiccups this season, mostly due to some run differentials and the volume I want to come in at. 

Projecting (57.14%) Winners over 105 plays per month versus an average (-110)

@RiggedNation

I would say thanks but I'm staring a Push right in the face. Unfortunately I got in at the Over 7. 

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

And another one!!! 

@RiggedNation

 Now I'll say thanks.

My models projection was (9.24 runs) so round down to (9.00) 

Good luck tonight guys

Falcon Sports 

@QBUN

 Bet they won't hang a 7 on the Cubs game tomorrow 

Falcon Sports 

Yea let's see what tomorrow's total will be...

@QBUN

 I won't run Saturday's numbers through the model until today's games go final but I expect the model to kick out between 9-10 tomorrow of course alot of that will depend on the wind at Wrigley. 

It's time like these that you sit and wonder, is this it? Have I finally created the model to take them down a notch. Time will tell as always. 

Falcon Sports 

thanks tailed lol

Off the record...@MITM ..thoughts on LAD v TB O9.5 (+100).....REALLY want to go with the OVER......

U might remember 

For me to play an Under, I need a difference of (1.00 runs). But for me to play an Over, I need a difference of (1.50 runs).

On the Tampa Bay game my model projected 10.49 runs. So it was so close to a play at (9.00)..

Hope that helps

Falcon Sports 

Fantastic! That's all I needed to hear 

@QBUN

 GL

But technically for me to play it, I would need an 8.5 but I hope u hit it.

And I want to stay true to my volume distribution. 

Many bettors are tricked into seeing Value where it doesn't exist. 

I'm so glad I stopped handicapping and turned everything over to a true mathematical model. 

For me it simply comes down to my model setting a better mathematical number. I've voiced my opinion several times on the books trying to set a total based on perception to better balance their action. 

I like to call it perception vs mathematics. I'll side with math. 

Falcon Sports 

Absolutely! 2 + 2 will always equal 4! 

And another one!!! Game , set and match for that BALT/TEX OVER!!! And only in top of the 4th! FANTASTIC once again Sir!! 

DOYERS O9.5 

And another one!!! Always dicey when it comes to O/U games in Colorado....unless you use FALCON SPORTS!!! 

WOW! Way to close at the end,  but we'll take the PUSH! 

Falcon Sports (Totals Only)

11-2 (+$1730)

To win $200 on each 

Falcon Sports 

Unders (7-1)

Overs (4-1)

Back soon with plays for Saturday 

Falcon Sports