Flamingo's season thread. (mostly Hawks discussion)

Question

In this thread, I will be focusing on mostly Hawks plays along with some ML parlays.

I follow the hawks very closely and feel like I have a good read on the team and should be able to provide useful info to my fellow covers users.Here is a link to my previous Hawks futures thread for those who may have missed it.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101965743

For game 1, we have two of the best looking teams in preseason facing each other in Toronto. Toronto had the better preseason record while Atlanta faced much stiffer competition and lost a couple games late due to Chicago and Memphis keeping their starters in.

At full health on both sides, I am confident that the Hawks are a better team than the Raptors. These teams split last season with each team winning two games while Toronto had a full roster in all four games. The Hawks won both games when they were healthy with 1 win being without Horford. Toronto had one win while the Hawks were missing Horford, Korver and another win with Horford, Carroll and Antic out. Toronto won both games in Toronto.

A few things I will be paying attention to tonight:

-How many minutes does Horford get.

-Does Schroder get first stab at the backup PG spot or does Bud stick with Mack.

-Does Bud sub Horford out early for Brand (around 6 minutes in to the game) and then plays Horford with our second unit. I am hoping for a second unit of Schroder/Bazemore/Thabo/Scott/Horford. This unit will create seperation in the 2nd quarter pretty often this season if it happens.

Due to the uncertainty of Horford's minutes, I will be limiting my play to under 2 units tonight.

Hawks +4.5 for 1 unit

I will be back later with a half unit ml parlay. The Hawks will be in it and I am considering adding some of these teams Grizzlies/Suns/Heat/Warriors/Bulls.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

In this thread, I will be focusing on mostly Hawks plays along with some ML parlays.

I follow the hawks very closely and feel like I have a good read on the team and should be able to provide useful info to my fellow covers users.Here is a link to my previous Hawks futures thread for those who may have missed it.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101965743

For game 1, we have two of the best looking teams in preseason facing each other in Toronto. Toronto had the better preseason record while Atlanta faced much stiffer competition and lost a couple games late due to Chicago and Memphis keeping their starters in.

At full health on both sides, I am confident that the Hawks are a better team than the Raptors. These teams split last season with each team winning two games while Toronto had a full roster in all four games. The Hawks won both games when they were healthy with 1 win being without Horford. Toronto had one win while the Hawks were missing Horford, Korver and another win with Horford, Carroll and Antic out. Toronto won both games in Toronto.

A few things I will be paying attention to tonight:

-How many minutes does Horford get.

-Does Schroder get first stab at the backup PG spot or does Bud stick with Mack.

-Does Bud sub Horford out early for Brand (around 6 minutes in to the game) and then plays Horford with our second unit. I am hoping for a second unit of Schroder/Bazemore/Thabo/Scott/Horford. This unit will create seperation in the 2nd quarter pretty often this season if it happens.

Due to the uncertainty of Horford's minutes, I will be limiting my play to under 2 units tonight.

Hawks +4.5 for 1 unit

I will be back later with a half unit ml parlay. The Hawks will be in it and I am considering adding some of these teams Grizzlies/Suns/Heat/Warriors/Bulls.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Adding Raptors team total under 103 for 1 unit.

The Hawks defense should be much improved this season with the additions of bazemore and thabo and by being healthy in general. Derozan killed the Hawks last season and feasted on Mack and Lou Will in a couple of games. I believe he will still have some success against Korver but bazemore and thabo should be able to do a much better job on him than Mack and Williams did.

edeasy · Answer

I am live in Atlanta and look forward to following

Betbychoice · Answer

You are exactly the type of person that this forum needs instead of all the other nonsense that I see going on in here. I am from Orlando and follow the Magic closely so always willing to offer some insight on things.

I have a future on the hawks to win the division so always routing for them. If AL stays healthy they will definitely be a team a lot of folks don't want to play. I hope Teague takes the next step. He shown signs of a budding star last year but lack the consistency.Thabo will definitely help them on the defensive side and he was a good addition. His offense is nothing special but his defense should definitely make up for it. I don't have a play on the game tonight but will be routing for a hawks win. Good luck

kaponofor3 · Answer

I am looking forward to this thread this year, I enjoy hearing from single team specialists, their insight is often invaluable.

You mentioned that TOR won both against ATL when the games were played in TDot. Any reason to suspect that ATL will be better on the road this year? I am always a tad concerned when a team is re-incorporating a guy from a serious injury -- you at all worried about Horford coming along slowly? I'm thinking Budz (who I have some action on for coach of the year at +4000) might try to limit his minutes early.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Bet.  I agree 100% on Teague and I believe he does have what it takes to step his game up this season. He played his best ball at the beginning and end of last season which was also when the Hawks were the most healthy.  Teague was the only constant throughout the middle portion Of the season as every one else was dealing with injuries and it clearly hurt his performance.  Last season was Teague first year being the clear leader of the offense and having a coach who showed faith in him.  I believe he really became confident in his ability to excel in the role at the end of the season and I am hopeful that it carries forward in to this year.  Check the threadI I linked for teagues assist stars with and without horford and you will see how important horford is to teague.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Kapono. I am not concerned with their performance on the road. This is a veteran team and I believe they will be able to perform well in any venue this season as long as they stay healthy. I think last years poor performances at toronto had more to do with injuries than being on the road. They were without horford in both losses and without korver in one and Carroll the other. We had zero depth behind either of these guys last season and struggled badly when either missed games. We were forced to start mack at SG and play Schroeder for many minutes when he wasn't ready. The Hawks were 1-10 in games without korver and 1-8 in games without carroll last season. The addition of thabo and bazemore will be huge when it comes to solving this problem. The Hawks now have two elite defenders at SF with carroll and thabo.

I love that coach bud bet. I wish you could have gotten to it earlier though. The linesmaker at 5dimes must have been drunk when he initially made the odds because I have around $30 on coach bud at +25000 odds.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

I meant to add that I am worried about how many minutes horford will get tonight and thats why my play is limited.  I think they can still win if horford only plays 20-25 minutes.  This team finished the year very strong last season once every one was consistently healthy. They went 10-2 and 5-1 against playoff teams in their last 12 games of the regular season when teague.korver.carroll.millsap.antic started and the surrounding players will be better this season.

MoreGeezer · Answer

Personally i think the hawks are a good team,but so is toronto(that you are underestimating here i suppose).The line is set in the right place,and this game has no value whatsoever if not slightly in toronto side as they are at home.
if you are a hawks fan i would wait to bet on this team
Instead i like the toronto under.
Good luck.

motowner · Answer

get &#x27;em bud, laying off here for now.. a bit concerned about the defense and want to see how the rotation is managed.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

I would disagree and I don&#x27;t believe I am underrating Toronto.  I know that they are a good team and the favorites to win their division.  They played very strongly after the Rudy happy trade last year.I believe the difference lies in how each of us rate Atlanta.  I likely rate Atlanta much higher than you which is why we see a difference in perceived value.  An away game in Toronto will be one of the Hawks toughest test over the first month of the season and I expect them to be up for the challenge.  They could easily lose this game if they don&#x27;t show up to play or their shots don&#x27;t fall; however, I am betting that they will be ready to play and I believe they get the win when they do. This is a small play for me either way.It looks like we both like the Toronto under so at least we can agree on something.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Here&#x27;s my ML parlays that I mentioned earlier.  These will be my final plays that include the Hawks tonight.  May have a late night play if the Hawks do well.25 units to win .70 unitsHawks, Grizzlies, Suns ML.25 units to win 1.36 unitsHawks, Grizzlies, Warriors, Hornets ML

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Well not a good start to the season. I was eager for some early action and paid the price. You live and you learn.

I expected the Hawks to be ready to go on opening night and they came out very flat and toronto outhustled them all night. Horford is still waiting for his shot to come around which isnt a huge surprise but the lack of urgency and the inability to hit FTs was a big surprise. The ball just seemed to bounce Toronto's way all night with the Hawks shots rimming out while Toronto's fell in.

I will be on the Hawks again for their home opener where energy most definitely should not be an issue. The Hawks are going all out in their home opener with performances by T.I., the introduction of the new 3-D floor system and offering $10 gift cards to every one who shows up 30 minutes before the game. It seems to have worked as tickets have already sold out. I will be back with my plays once the lines are released.

-2.7 units after day 1.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

1.65 units to win 1.5.  Memphis -6 over IndianaGasol should be able to get the best of Hibbert and I don&#x27;t see this current Indiana lineup doing very well in games where Hibbert loses his matchup.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Adding:.825 units to win .75.  Portland -5.5 vs Sac.Lillard should perform better when he isn&#x27;t facing the lightning bolt Westbrook and I like the matchup of Batum vs happy.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

-2.025 units on the year.Theres a lot of interesting plays on the card today. This is a very important game for the Hawks franchise tonight. The front office has went all out in an effort to draw fans in tonight and the fans have responded by making this is a sell out game with a week beforw the game.  Every one knows about the Hawks attendance woes and the Hawks have unfortunately let down the fans each time they have gotten behind the team over the past few years.  A good showing tonight could make a big difference in ticket sales for the rest of the year.  I believe the players will be eager to give the fans a good show and T.I.s pregame performance should lead to a loud crowd throughout the game.  Teague needs to be aggressive throughout the game tonight.  This team goes as Teague goes and he has a bad habit of being passive for long stretches.  Teague should have his way if he forces the issue.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

All plays are 1 unit for now.Atl -11 @ -103Det -3 @ -110Mem &#x2B;3 @ &#x2B;100Den -6 @ -103Phx -3 @ -103

scalabrine · Answer

Wow. -11. That is a ton of chalk against a team that is decimated but has obvious roots against ATL. I don't disagree with the points in the write-up but you have to do a lot to go from "the hawks will win" to "the hawks will win by more than 11". I'm not sure there is enough there to do that.

Maybe a tease would be a better option.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

I agree that 11 is a lot and a big higher than I was expecting, but I believe this pacers team is walking in to a buzzsaw tonight. They need a big win tonight to really rejuvenate this fan base and I think teague will come out aggressive from the get go.  Indy has no answer for teague with george out of the lineup.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Adding.Hawks -10.5 for 1 unit @ -110.hawks tt over 102 for 1 unit @ -110Ml parlay: hawks wizards heat nuggets 1 unit to win 1.5

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Well I was mostly right on the Indiana game. Carroll makes the late FT and I'm 1-0-2 on the game instead of 0-2-1. The atmosphere was incredible in Phillips on Saturday night and the fan experience has been upgraded ten-fold from prior years. Hopefully, some new Hawks fans were created on Saturday.

I predicted that Teague's level of aggressiveness would be the key factor in the game and it turned out to be. Teague was very aggressive out of the gate and scored 11 points in the first 9 minutes and the Hawks jumped out to a 22-11 lead. He then goes in to cruise control for the rest of the game until the end of the fourth quarter where he scores 8 points in the final 3 minutes. This leaves him with scoring 19 of his 25 points over a 12 minute period.

It would be nice to see Teague come out with Westbrook's relentlessness every once in a while when he has a favorable matchup like he did on Saturday. There are very few people who can stay in front of Teague in this league and he needs to take advantage of it more often if this Hawks team is going to reach it's true potential.

On to tonight's game:

This should be a good measuring stick game for the Hawks. They were without Korver in their game @ SAS last season and lost on a buzzer beater by Tim Duncan. The second game is useless to evaluate since the Hawks were without Horford/Pero/Carroll.

Bud's familiarity with the Spurs offense and playcalling should help the Hawks stay in this one. I think the Hawks can hang around for most of the game with the Spurs pulling the win out late. I expect a 4-7 point win for the Spurs.

I think the difference maker in this game will be if Millsap can break out of his slump. If Millsap plays strong, the Hawks will be in this game at the end with a close finish. Another bad showing from Millsap, and the Spurs likely cover this one.

No play for me.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Some positives and negatives from last nights game

Positives:

-Overcoming a 17 point deficit to fight back to within 2 while having to overcome the refs all night. The Hawks won 3 out of 4 quarters last night while only shooting 11 FTs to San Antonio's 38. I usually don't gripe about the refs, but they played a huge factor in the Hawks losing this game last night.

-Outside of the first quarter, the Hawks defense looked great and held the Spurs to only 67 points on made FG's.

-Millsap finally played solid game and knocked down some shots.

-Scott continued his scorching shooting.

-Schroder looked great in his first playing time of the season.

Negatives:

-Teague was back to his old self and passive for most of the game. The Hawks go as Teague goes and they are not the same team when he doesn't force the issue. He has to become more consistent.

-The Hawks were once again outrebounded by more than 10 boards. This will be an issue all season with their undersized frontcourt.

-Coach Bud's biggest weakness is his playcalling on out-of-bounds plays from a timeout. Execution is partly to blame, but the two plays he drew up at the end of this game failed miserably. This was a noticeable problem last season and he has to correct this issue if the Hawks are going to win close games.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

Hawks vs Charlotte.The Hawks dominated this series last season by winning 3 out of the 4 matchups.  The 1 win by Charlotte came on an Al Jefferson buzzer beater with a full Charlotte roster while the Hawks were without Korver/Carroll/Millsap/Horford.  Outside of Al Jefferson, Charlotte lacks the size to take advantage of the undersized Hawks frontcourt.  -I expect Millsap to have a big game tomorrow.  He tends to struggle against bigger frontcourts.  He hasa big strength advantage over Marvin and I believe he will be able to bully him a bit in this matchup.  -The Korver/Stephenson matchup will be key.  Lance tends to gamble on defense and will often lose his man because of it.  This should allow Korver to get some good looks and its rare that he misses his open looks in back to back games.  In the Pacers series last year, George guarded Korver in the first 2 games and Korver shot 3/11 from 3.  They switched George on to Teague for the final 5 games which left Lance on Korver.  Korver shot 20/43 in those 5 games. On the other end, Lance begins most of his drives to the basket with ballfakes.  Korver is a very heady player and rarely falls for fakes unless he is helpside and sprinting to close out on a shooter.  Korver had some success defending Lance in the series last year.-Horford and Jefferson usually play each other pretty strongly.  Neither player can stop the other on the offensive end.  Jefferson has the size advantage and Horford has the speed advantage. -The Hawks defense should give the Hornets all kinds of problems.  This Hornets team still hasn&#x27;t figured out how to work Lance in to this offense and I don&#x27;t see it improving against an improved Hawks D tomorrow. I believe both of these plays are winners tomorrow night.  I will be on the Hawks ML big and the Charlotte TT under.

scalabrine · Answer

Lots of great insight here now has me interested in this game.

FlamingoBarnes · Answer

A couple of more notes before I head to Charlotte for tonight's game.

-The Hawks are uncharacteristically missing FTs so far this season while having the same roster so I expect this to improve. They are currently ranked 27th at 68.9% while last season they ranked 6th at 78.1%.

-The Hawks are tied at 4th in opponents FG% at 41.3% and tied for 15th in opponents 3 pt FG% at 33.3%. Charlotte's FG% is 25th in the league at 42.5% and are 23rd in the league in 3 pt% at 30.3%. Due to their undersized frontcourt, the Hawks usually have to help out down low which leaves shooters open on the perimeter. The wings are forced to help crash the boards as well which leaves shooters open on kickouts if the opposing team is able to grab the offensive board. Charlotte's weakness on offense is their lack of perimeter shooting.

Flamingo's season thread. (mostly Hawks discussion)

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