).
It's been a while since I have posted and the Hawks have made great strides during this time. A wager on the Hawks ML vs the Heat was my first bet since posting here last.
The key to the Hawks recent success has been the great play out of their PGs Teague and Schroder who are both in the top 10 for PER among PGs. The Hawks now have two above average PGs and teams have not been able to keep up with them for 48 minutes. Bud used a lineup of Schroder/Teague/Korver/Millsap/Horford to close out the Heat game and this unit looks unstoppable on offense.
Antic has had a bad habit of hesitating and double clutching for launching open 3's and his % has suffered greatly. He has been taking these shots with confidence over the past 2 weeks and they are starting to fall. The second unit offense really opens up when Antic is hitting his 3's at a decent rate and forcing the opposing Center out of the paint.
Key points for tonight's game vs Brooklyn.
-I expect the combo of Teague/Schroder to outplay Dwill/Jack. Schroder will eat Jack's lunch on both ends of the court. People really need to watch a Hawks game and check this kid out if you haven't seen him play. He is only 21 and has the potential to be one of the next great PG's in this league.
-The Hawks now have the personnel to slow down Joe Johnson. JJ killed the Hawks in Brooklyn's two wins in this series last year. He scored 29 in a win where Lou Williams started in place of Carroll and 23 in a game where Carroll did play. I believe the combo of Carroll + Thabo will be able to keep JJ in check tonight.
-Brook Lopez will be the Nets downfall on defense. Brook is one of the slowest players in the league and this does not bode well when going against a spread offense like the Hawks. He will be routinely asked to venture out of the paint on defense and he will be highly ineffective when doing so. If the Nets try to scheme to keep Brook in the paint, the Nets will get lost in their rotations, due to crisp Atlanta passing, and they will give up open looks to Atlanta's great shooters.
-Speed kills. Atlanta has an athletic bunch and Brooklyn's slow footed bunch will not be able to keep up with them.
Atlanta ML and -1.5 LARGE
I'm splitting my wager in half between the spread and moneyline.
Another very impressive defensive performance by the Hawks yesterday. I thought that Teague and Schroder would make it tough for Lawson but I had no idea that they would completely shut him down. Teague and Schroder both were off on the offensive end as Millsap carried the load on that end. Teague didn't work very hard on the offensive end and he usually follows up these type of performances with a very aggressive one.
The defense that has been on display over the past 3 games can really take this squad to another level since the offense will be there on a nightly basis.
On to tonight's game vs Indiana.
This is the 5th game in 7 nights for Atlanta. I don't think it will be a factor as much as expected since starters have been able to rest some during the past 3 easy wins. Korver leads all starters with 31.3 mpg over the past 3 games. Carroll, Teague and Horford have all logged less than 30 minutes per game over this span. Bud's system, some easy blowouts plus the depth of this team = a good way to withstand a 5 in 7 stretch. The Hawks have a very tough 12 game stretch which begins next week and I think they realize the importance of winning their winnable games this week. Korver seems to agree with me with this quote from his post-game interview last night "On where Hawks are in standings: “Every NBA game is tough but we’ve had a favorable schedule to this point. We’ve kind of talked about that we have to get these games"
The Hawks still pose the same bad matchup to the Pacers as they did last year in the playoffs. The difference is Horford is back and George is gone.
What to expect:
-I expect that we may see Antic a little more than usual tonight. If there is one player that may be slowed by the 5 in 7 stretch, it will be Horford. He still isn't back to 100% and Hibbert has a huge weight advantage on him. Antic forces Hibbert to step out that extra foot or two on defense and he is the Hawks best one-on-one low post defender with the strength to stand firm when Hibbert tries to post up.
-Jeff Teague to be aggressive and force the issue. Teague has been patient on offense for the past two nights and I expect that to change tonight. Indiana's only answer for Teague is Paul George and he won't be playing. Teague scored 25 in the first matchup of these two teams this season. The combo of Teague/Schroder should once again win their matchup decisively.
-Indy's strength is interior defense and the Hawks can kill you from distance. Horford is shooting 52.5% from 16 ft - 3 pt line. The Hawks are 4th in the league with 37.7% from 3 as a team.
-David West will make life tough for Millsap. This is not a game where the Hawks can rely on Millsap to carry them on offense. West has regularly been a bad matchup for Millsap and I wouldn't expect much different unless Millsap comes out shooting hot from distance where he is 7 of 10 from 3 over the past 3 games.
I'm going to keep rolling with this team while they are hot. I don't see any reason why they can't pull a win tonight if they shoot for average from 3.
Hawks ML -102 MEDIUM
Parlay: Hawks +2, GSW -12, Phx +8
Another very impressive defensive performance by the Hawks yesterday. I thought that Teague and Schroder would make it tough for Lawson but I had no idea that they would completely shut him down. Teague and Schroder both were off on the offensive end as Millsap carried the load on that end. Teague didn't work very hard on the offensive end and he usually follows up these type of performances with a very aggressive one.
The defense that has been on display over the past 3 games can really take this squad to another level since the offense will be there on a nightly basis.
On to tonight's game vs Indiana.
This is the 5th game in 7 nights for Atlanta. I don't think it will be a factor as much as expected since starters have been able to rest some during the past 3 easy wins. Korver leads all starters with 31.3 mpg over the past 3 games. Carroll, Teague and Horford have all logged less than 30 minutes per game over this span. Bud's system, some easy blowouts plus the depth of this team = a good way to withstand a 5 in 7 stretch. The Hawks have a very tough 12 game stretch which begins next week and I think they realize the importance of winning their winnable games this week. Korver seems to agree with me with this quote from his post-game interview last night "On where Hawks are in standings: “Every NBA game is tough but we’ve had a favorable schedule to this point. We’ve kind of talked about that we have to get these games"
The Hawks still pose the same bad matchup to the Pacers as they did last year in the playoffs. The difference is Horford is back and George is gone.
What to expect:
-I expect that we may see Antic a little more than usual tonight. If there is one player that may be slowed by the 5 in 7 stretch, it will be Horford. He still isn't back to 100% and Hibbert has a huge weight advantage on him. Antic forces Hibbert to step out that extra foot or two on defense and he is the Hawks best one-on-one low post defender with the strength to stand firm when Hibbert tries to post up.
-Jeff Teague to be aggressive and force the issue. Teague has been patient on offense for the past two nights and I expect that to change tonight. Indiana's only answer for Teague is Paul George and he won't be playing. Teague scored 25 in the first matchup of these two teams this season. The combo of Teague/Schroder should once again win their matchup decisively.
-Indy's strength is interior defense and the Hawks can kill you from distance. Horford is shooting 52.5% from 16 ft - 3 pt line. The Hawks are 4th in the league with 37.7% from 3 as a team.
-David West will make life tough for Millsap. This is not a game where the Hawks can rely on Millsap to carry them on offense. West has regularly been a bad matchup for Millsap and I wouldn't expect much different unless Millsap comes out shooting hot from distance where he is 7 of 10 from 3 over the past 3 games.
I'm going to keep rolling with this team while they are hot. I don't see any reason why they can't pull a win tonight if they shoot for average from 3.
Hawks ML -102 MEDIUM
Parlay: Hawks +2, GSW -12, Phx +8
Well, I was pretty spot on with my analysis last night. This was, in fact, no trap line but just the general public continuing to disrespect a Hawks team that is far better than years past. Millsap only had 2 points on 2 Fts going in to the 4th before he picked up another 5 points in garbage time. Horford had an off-night from midrange by going 3/9, but he did make a 3, Teague was able to coast for most of the game (He had a 3 1/2 minute stretch in the 3rd where he got aggressive and contributed 8 points and 2 assists). He usually will feel things out and try to get every one involved first. If the team is struggling on offense, he will put the pedal on the floor and take control. With the way this offense is playing, this may end up costing him an all-star bid, but it's all good as long as the Hawks keep winning. The Pacers are just too slow and, with no Paul George, they are missing a defender who can slow down the point of attack.
I also hit my 3 team parlay and followed AMD on the Falcons. It made for a very nice Monday night.
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