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Flamingo's season thread. (mostly Hawks discussion)

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Posted: #76

Southeast Division
 
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Posted: #77
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by IfYaSmellLALALA:


Southeast Division


They look to be the clear cut favorites in the Southeast from my point of view. 

It's a little busier at the office than usual so it will be a little while before I post my anaylsis today.  I have done a recap of my record since returning after taking the break after my sluggish start. 

Since returning, first game counted is the Brooklyn game on page 2, I am:

Large plays - 4-2
Medium plays - 5-2
Smedium plays - 1-0
Small plays - 3-3

The only parlay I included in this record was the loss on the Hawks/Grizzlies ML Large play.  Outside of this one, the rest pretty much even themselves out and I may be somewhat ahead since I hit on the +458 parlay. 

See ya in a bit.
 
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Posted: #79
Once again, the Hawks looked straight dominant on defense last night.  Bud's schemes combined with our overall length and group of athletic and agile players leads to a pretty devastating defensive unit.  Schroder had a career high in points (22) and he left 4 at the line. 

I made note of how Parsons and Ellis could have sluggish scoring nights due to Parsons chasing Korver and Ellis facing a trio of very tough defenders.  Parsons finished with 4 points on 6 shots while Ellis scored 18 on 22 shots.  The Hawks continue to do a great job of playing tight defense while not fouling which is key.


Clippers vs Hawks

-The Hawks may have just completed their most impressive 3 game road stretch in the last 20 years and it looks like fans in Atlanta have taken notice.  Ticket prices for tonight's game have skyrocketed and the game is near selling out which is unheard of for Atlanta.  I hope that the Hawks receive a nice welcome home and it gives them an extra spark.

-Defending Kyle Korver will once again be a huge problem for the Clippers as he is SCORCHING hot at home this year.  Korver is shooting 60.8% from 3 on 5.6 attempts per game and has a TS% of 82%.  This is not good news for a Clippers team who struggled to defend Korver last year (he made 9/12 3's in two games).  I don't have much confidence in the Clippers being able to blanket Korver for 35 minutes tonight.

-While Korver has been hot at home, the rest of the team has been a bit cold at home.  The rest of the team has shot 29.6% from 3 at home while shooting 36.6% on the road.  The rest of the crew are due for a good shooting night at home.

-I feel like the Hawks defense is at its best when facing a team that relies on heavy scoring from the wings.  The Clippers will be a tough challenge since they rely on production from the PG and Forward spots.  Blake and Jordan should have some success with their size advantage and Paul is always tough.  Teague being back in the lineup is huge as I expected Paul to be able to outmuscle Dennis in the paint.  Teague is strong enough to hold his ground.  The hawks will also play at a faster pace with Teague on the floor.

-The Clippers have played 7 games against teams in the top 10 for PPG.  They have given up an average of 110 ppg in these 7 matchups and have only held two of the teams below the Hawks TT line of 203.  2 of these games were on the road and the Clips gave up 121 and 125.  They have also lost their last 4 games on the road while giving up an average of 112 per game.

-It's obvious that I expect Atlanta to score tonight, but I am unsure if Atlanta will have as much success stopping LAC like they have Clev, Hous and Dall.  For this reason I am rolling with:

Atlanta TT Over 103  LARGE

Hawks ML -122  SMEDIUM

I will also be making one non-Hawks play tonight.  I have been pretty bad on plays outside of the Hawks so this could be good fade material.  I am of the opinion that the Wizards are a pretty overrated team and I expect the Bulls to expose them tonight.

Chicago +3  MEDIUM

 
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Posted: #80
im locked on hawks -1.5 , clippers have no chances today 
 
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Posted: #81
I'm going to try another player prop bet after winning my Korver one last night.

The Hawks defensive strength is at the 2/3 position and they do a very good job of playing tight defense while not fouling.  I expect Thabo/Bazemore/Carroll to do a good job of forcing Jamal Crawford in to inefficient shots and to limit his trips to the FT line. This bet could go up in flames if Jamal has one of those nights where he hits impossible shots but I think this one has a very good chance of hitting. 

Jamal Crawford Under 16 points -105  SMALL
 
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Posted: #82
Another game and another W for the Hawks.  My initial impression from this game is damn Chris Paul is good.  Paul dominated Schroder and the Hawks would have lost this game if Teague wasn't available.  Crawford ended up attempting 5 more shots than his season average and scored 18.  The Hawks dual 3pt wing threat of Carroll and Korver is serious business (9/13 from 3 last night).  It's a treat to regularly watch a team that doesn't complain to the refs 24/7.  The Clippers whine and throw a temper tantrum after every call.  There were a couple of times where they should have received Techs and the refs swallowed their whistles. Their flopping is also gross.  

Here's a pretty crazy stat for the Hawks.  This speaks of the Hawks depth and I wonder if this has happened before.  

In the past 7 games, a different player has led the Hawks in scoring and they have scored at least 20 points.

Sap 23 vs. ORL

Teague 24 vs. ORL

Horford 21 vs. CHI

Mack 24 vs. CLE

Korver 22 vs. HOU

Schröder 22 vs. DAL

Carroll 25 vs. LAC



 
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Posted: #83
Fun Fact:  Giannis would likely be a Hawk if the Bucks didn't hire Larry Drew before the 2013 draft.  Danny Ferry was very high on Giannis and had promised to draft him if he was available.  Drew was fired from Atlanta a month before the draft and hired by Milwaukee.  Milwaukee picked Giannis the pick before ATL made theirs.  It would have been crazy if Atlanta walked away with Giannis and Schroder in that draft.

The city of Atlanta is finally starting to support this Hawks squad as tonight will be the second sell out in a row.  The crowd for the Clippers game was easily the loudest Atlanta crowd for a regular season game in a long time.

Milwaukee vs. Atlanta

-Ilyasova and Sanders are out for Milwaukee.  Antic is out for Atlanta.

-The Bucks shoot a respectable 36% from 3 (11th in the league) but they only attempt 18.8 threes per game (24th in the league).  23% of Milwaukee's shots are 3 pt attempts.  The Hawks have been doing a great job of shutting down the interior and forcing teams in to taking 3's.  30% of Hawks opponents FG attempts are 3 pt shots.  The Bucks will likely be forced in to shooting more 3's than they want to tonight.  The Hawks are first in the league in opponent 3 pt attempts per game at 25.1.  They do a great job of playing team defense and rotating correctly to cut off inside lanes.

-One of the Hawks few weaknesses on defense has been allowing second chance points.  Milwaukee is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league and they will be without Sanders 2.5 orb per game.  Milwaukee is also in the bottom 3rd in FT attempts while ATL is 5th in opponents FT attempts per game with 20.9.

-In December, the Hawks led the league in defensive rating with 95.2 points allowed per possession.  This number plummets to 91.9 when at least one reserve is on the court.  The backcourt trio of Schroder/Bazemore/Thabo continues to dominate their opponents.  

-The second quarter has been the Hawks best quarter, defensively, so far this season.  They have held opponents to only 23.1 points in the second quarter.

-I expect Horford and Millsap to have an easy time tonight while Milwaukee's inexperienced squad struggles to stay disciplined on defense.  This one looks like a blowout to me but I am not a fan of 10 point spreads.  I'm going to count on a strong first half and strong defense from the Hawks.  The Hawks second unit should be able to create some distance in the second quarter.

Milwaukee Team Total Under 49 1st Half  MEDIUM

Hawks -2 Second Quarter  MEDIUM

I may add a Horford or Millsap prop when they are released.


 
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Posted: #84
5dimes is being smart and not offering a Millsap pts + rebs prop. I have a strong lean on the Millsap over 16.5 pts prop but am going to pass.  Millsap is due for a big scoring game and Milwaukee shouldn't offer much resistance if he is aggressive.

I see a lot of people on Milwaukee +8.5-9 and all I can say is be careful.  Milwaukee's easy points are going to be seriously limited, they have no rim protector and they struggle to protect the 3 point line.  It sounds like a disaster against an ATL team that comes to play on a nightly basis.  With that said, I am still avoiding the large spread.

I am adding:

Hawks/Thunder/Blazers ML  -130  MEDIUM
 
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Posted: #85
Not much time for a writeup today.  I will take 6 points with this Hawks team vs any team in the league.  These are two of the hottest teams in the league and I expect a dog fight tonight.  

Hawks +6 MEDIUM


Making a small ML play split two ways,

Hawks ML +205

Hawks + Spurs ML +313
 
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Posted: #86
Barnes how much did you get the Hawks win eastern conference future at
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by IfYaSmellLALALA:

Barnes how much did you get the Hawks win eastern conference future at

I got them at +3500 on sportsbook and +4350 on 5dimes before the season began.  
 
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Good God
 
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Hawks +6 2nd half and Over 50.5 points  SMALL each

The Hawks are getting easy looks while just about every shot of Portland's is contested.  The 3 ball has kept Portland in the game as Portland has made 9/15 while the Hawks have made 3/13
 
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Hawks vs Clippers

-The two bad losses to the Cavs and Lakers seem to have been the turning point for this soaring Hawks team.  They were 5-5 after a bad home loss to the Lakers and have went 20-3 since.  The biggest factor in this turn around has been the Hawks effort on defense.  Hawks opponents averaged 103.90 pts per game in the first 10 of the year.  In the past 23 games, the Hawks have held their opponents to 94.75 pts per game.  The Pacers lead the league in opponents ppg at 95.9. 

-The Clippers and Hawks have played once this year and the Hawks won by 3.  Clipper's two brightest spots were Deandre Jordan and Chris Paul.  The Hawks bright spots were

   -Deandre kept the Clippers in the game with 11 offensive boards while towering over the short frontline of the Hawks.  The Hawks have no answer for Deandre and I don't see that changing much tonight.  The only possible adjustment is to give Pero more minutes after he had a DNP in the first meeting.  Pero is the only player with the strength/size combo to deal with Deandre.

   -Paul had 19 pts 7 asts 6 rebs 5 steals and clearly outclassed Dennis.  Paul scored 15 pts (on 5/7 shooting) and 5 assists against Dennis while only scoring 4 pts (on 2/11 shooting) against Teague.  Dennis is still young and just isn't up to the challenge of facing an elite and strong wiley vet like Paul.  Teague was able to hold his own with Paul and I would say he even outplayed him.  This was Teague's first game back from the hamstring injury which led to him and Dennis playing 24 minutes each with Dennis getting the start.  Teague put up a +23 in his 24 minutes while Dennis put up a -18.

-The Clippers Team Total line is at 107 tonight.  The last time a Hawks opponent scored more than 107 was on Nov. 26 against Toronto.  Toronto scored a whopping 70 points off of 3's and FTs while the Hawks give up an average of 41.8 per game in these categories.

Clippers Team Total Under 107  MEDIUM

I may add a play on the spread later on.  It's tough to pass up a free 5 points with this Hawks squad vs any team in the league right now.

 
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Posted: #91
Just noticed that I didn't finish my second bullet point.  The Hawks bright spots were their wings.  The Clips did a terrible job in defending the 3 ball against the Hawks wing players as Korver/Carroll/Thabo combined to make 10/15 3's.  I wouldn't expect them to be this hot tonight, but I don't expect the Clips to show much improvement in defending this shot without sacrificing in other areas.  They just have poor defenders on the wing and there's not much they can do about it.
 
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Posted: #92
oh nice, just noticed this thread. 

Teague's first game back last game and coming off the bench. Schroder struggled that game. I think it's going to make a big difference with Teague playing the majority of the minutes.
 
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Posted: #93
Man if we follow what you said,then Jordan over 10.5 would be good value?
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by PlayingTime11:

Man if we follow what you said,then Jordan over 10.5 would be good value?

10.5 rebounds?  Yes, I love that prop.  5dimes hasn't released props for this game yet but I hope to jump on the rebounds prop or the pts + rebounds prop if I can get a good number.
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by chestbrah:

oh nice, just noticed this thread. 

Teague's first game back last game and coming off the bench. Schroder struggled that game. I think it's going to make a big difference with Teague playing the majority of the minutes.

I agree 100% and this is why I think the Hawks will cover with a great shot at winning tonight.  In the first game, Teague and Dennis playing time was split 24 minutes each.  I expect that we will see Teague play closer to 35 tonight and Schroder will be more likely to be on the court when Paul isn't which will be a plus. 

adding:

Hawks + 5.5 SMALL

Hawks, Mavs ML Parlay +284  SMALL

I also added these plays for the Mavs.  I follow this Brooklyn team closely since the Hawks have the right to swap 1st rounders with them this year and they are far worse than their record indicates.  They have no answer for Monta Ellis. Deron and KG are both out and Joe played 41 minutes last night.  The Mavs are also on a back to back but played early and their key guys played limited minutes.  This has double digit win written all over it.

Mavs -1.5 1st qtr SMALL

Mavs -3 1st hf  SMEDIUM

Mavs -6 full game MEDIUM
 
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Posted: #96
I did some looking around and the Clippers have played 11 games against the top 10 teams in points allowed per game.  They have only eclipsed the 107 total in 1 of the 11 games.  

Upsizing my Clippers Team Total Under play to make it LARGE overall with the new bet being at 107.5.

Also increasing:  HAWKS +5.5 to MEDIUM
 
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Posted: #97
Very surprised to see you on ATL tonight. At home for an extended period, revenge spot, clippers rested and no longer playing a brutal road schedule. This will be a very tough game for them to win and 5 isn't much of a number to cover. Had I seen you were on LA I would have unloaded on them.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Very surprised to see you on ATL tonight. At home for an extended period, revenge spot, clippers rested and no longer playing a brutal road schedule. This will be a very tough game for them to win and 5 isn't much of a number to cover. Had I seen you were on LA I would have unloaded on them.

In past years, this is a game where I would have faded the hell out of the Hawks, but this team is different.  They continue to win the games they aren't supposed to and I think the Clips are a bit overrated, especially offensively against good defensive teams.  I think Teague's additional minutes plus Coach Bud's adjustments from the first game will be enough to get the job done. 

 
 
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Posted: #99
Overtime in Brooklyn saved my butt. 

Adding a tasty prop for the ATL game.

ATL to score 30+ points first +145 SMALL
 
 
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Hawks win outright! Good thing I saw this post.
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