Flamingo's season thread. (mostly Hawks discussion)

Well I just had a writeup done and hit the wrong button on my phone and zapped it.

My two main points for today's game are:

-i fully expect korver/thabo to get the best of beal/butler. Beals legs are going to seriously tired after chasing korver around and thabo will be on him like white on rice when he subs in for korver. The beal pts under prop is a good bet today but I am staying away from props for now.

-i believe atlanta is a contender and Washington is a pretender. This should become evident this afternoon.

This would be an XL play for me if this game was in washington since the line would be lower and the hawks have played better on the road.

Atlanta -4 MEDIUM/LARGE

ATL/open ml parlay MEDIUM

Some of the things you say in this thread i agree with and some i don't.  I do agree the hawks will probably beat washington as they are playing better and the better offensive team.  Im playing over 195.

Some of the other things i don't agree with.  Korver having fast legs being one of them.  Also Ferrys decision making.  I don't know why Ferry thinks Korver is an intregal part of this team.  All you have to do is go back to last season when the hawks were with out Horford most of the year and relied on Korver and Milsap.

They finished something like 17 games worse than the year before when they had smith and horford play.  You also saw this past summer a good coach like Mike Krzyzewski cut him from team usa.  Did usa not win the title because they didn't have Kyle Korver?  No far from it.  Korver isn't something important to this teams success the hawks are paying him way to much  money and playing him way to many minutes.  The only thing he is decent at is shooting threes.

I know the Hawks chreighton well as i live close by.  It amazes me how people like Tolliver and Korver got in the nba.  Now you see Altman at Oregon facing sexual abuse allegations and the school being sued.  I know some of these players from high school and the kind of people they hung out with and things they did.  To say they are good character people would not be the truth.  The chreighton program has gone downhill at 9-8 and deciding to move to the big east instead of staying in the missiouri valley.  Also look at the wooden award winner from last year and coaches son mccdermott he is averaging 9 mins a game 3 pts and 1 reb with the bulls.  Not important to the bulls success or failure at all.  A total non factor.

Chreighton basketball is overrated as are the players.  Atlanta is playing good right now but half the season isn't over.  There is still a lot of basketball to go.  A big part of atlanta success to me is jeff teague who is playing outstanding.  Unfortunatley i don't get to see many atlanta games here in iowa but i do watch them on game cast when i can.

Barnes I can't wait for the GSW / ATL matchup what do you think 

Im sorry spoc but you just exposed yourself as clueless about the hawks and korver. I never said korver was a sprinter. He is a marathon runner. He runs defenders ragged and you will see it today.

As far as last years record, you are foolish if you only account for h orfords time missed. Atlanta was decimated by injuries last season. They had a damn good record when they had a starting five of teague/korver/carroll/millsap/antic. Finished the year on a 10-2 run and 5-1 vs playoff teams when that group played and then took indy to 7.

Korver is a huge part of what the hawks do and they would be half the team they are if they didnt have him.

GSW is the one team that im scared of. I already have tickets for their matchup in ATL. I went to georgia southern which is a conference rival of Davidson and I had the pleasure of watching Stephen curry play in small college gyms several times. I knew he was going to be special before most people knew his name.

They matchup perfectly with the Hawks and it should be the ultimate test.

Likewise I got tickets to their game at Oracle in march.  Both teams are my favorite but the recent yuppie crowd golden state has been attracting makes me feel inclined to cheer for Mike Scott and Co. I can see the Hawks covering out here but as you said the game in Atl will be the true test.

lookin good so far. thanks again for all your insight into your team this year. Glad i took your advice on the coach of the year prop. Besides Kerr i'd say buds a runaway with it so far. bol the rest of the season

I'm sorry but I am still dying laughing at your assessment of Korver.  You need to turn on the TV and actually watch the Hawks if you actually think this.  Korver is one of the most underrated players in this league.

Your line about the U.S. still winning the Gold without Korver is hilarious.  You coudl take any single player off of that team and replace them with another high caliber NBA player and that team still wins the Gold. 

Well I pretty much called the Wash vs ATL game to a T.  Washington are 100% pretenders while ATL are most certainly contenders at this point.  In the beginning of my writeup for the Detroit game, I said that I had been waiting on this line for several weeks.  I knew this was going to be a beatdown and planned on making this game my biggest bet of the year and then the Detroit line was released.  I ended up lowering my bet amount after making my largest wager of the year on the Detroit game.  I should have stuck to my initial plan.

ATL's bench destroyed Washington's and Korver/Thabo owned Beal/Butler.  That Beal points under prop cashed if any one took it.

Teague > Wall.  I don't care what ESPN says or people who don't pay attention to the Hawks.  In two head to head matchups this season, Teague has 13 assists, 2 turnovers, 7 steals.  Wall has 21 assists, 15 turnovers, 2 steals.  That is a ton of wasted possessions by Wall.

The only thing stopping ATL from cashing my 200/2,000 SE title bet is injuries at this point.

For today, I am looking to close out the open parlay that I opened yesterday.  Brooklyn is just trash and will continue to get worse as the season progresses.  Joe Johnson is old and he is playing far too many minutes.  He won't be able to continue to play well under this heavy of a workload for the rest of the year.  It looks like Brooklyn will end up in the lottery and the Hawks will end up with their lottery pick.

Hawks ML/ Rockets ML  +118 MEDIUM

I'm also going to relist my play from yesterday so it will be easy for me to see if I scan through the thread and compile my record at some point

Atlanta -4 MEDIUM/LARGE

Feel free to make the Hawks the #1 on your list.  These guys are earning it with their beautiful style of team play.  GSW plays some beautiful ball as well.  I hate that they are on the West coast and I don't get to watch them very often with their late starts.  I was hoping Steph would get drafted by an Eastern team so I could watch him more.  Kind of glad he didn't now though.

Glad you jumped on board with that lotto ticket.  How much did you put on it?  I'm starting to regret only putting 25.47 on it but it will still be a very nice payout if it hits.

I am seeing Atlanta getting 3.5 to 1 to win the East.  Thoughts?

Most of the value has been sucked out of the Hawks Eastern champs future but 5dimes does have the line at 5.65/1 still.  I would look there if you are going to make the play.  Assuming health, I believe the Hawks make it out of the Eastern conference this year.

Atlanta is the best team in the East right now and I feel like, outside of Cleveland, they have the most room to improve between now and the playoffs.  Budenholzer is, by far, the best coach in the East and he will continue to build this team in to a machine as the season progresses.  Schroder and Horford have a lot of room to improve on their current state.

In my opinion, Washington and Cleveland are pretenders.  Cleveland will continue to be very weak on defense and not even the refs will be able to save them this year.  Washington has no depth as their bench is atrocious.  I believe every member of their starting 5 is overrated and Atlanta exposed them yesterday.

Toronto is 2-0 against the Hawks but both of these games came during the first 13 games of the year when the Hawks started out 7-6.  I believe the Lakers loss in game 10 sparked a fire in these Hawks and then the Raptors came to Atlanta and shot lights out in game 13 (70 pts on 3's + FT).  In the postgame interview, Teague had a pain in his eye that I had never seen before.  You could tell that game meant a ton to them and they were determined to get on the right course.  The Hawks face Toronto this Friday for the third time and I believe the Hawks will handle business, although it is in the middle of a 4 game 5 night stretch (all road games).  Toronoto's ultimate downfall will be their reliance on iso plays on offense and average defense.

While Chicago will present the toughest challenge, I'm confident that ATL can handle them in a 7 game series.  I'm curious to see if Butler and Gasol can sustain their level of play with the heavy amount of minutes they are getting.  Butler's play has already dropped significantly over the past 10 games and he must play at a star level if they are going to contend.  Rose is a shell of his former self while he still runs the offense like he is a superstar.  This results in a ton of inefficient shots and wasted possessions for Chicago.  Noah also looks much worse than last year. I think it is more likely that the Bulls regress as the season continues before they improve as the season continues.

is atl +1600 good to be champs?

I think so.

thanks bro

Just submitted this play.  Figured I will go ahead and post it.  Writeup and possible play on the spread to come in a bit.  I am also looking to add to the 76ers Team Total figure.  Just want to wait and see what the 1st half line looks like.

76ers Team Total Under 93 MEDIUM

There is a writeup on page 2 of this thread for the first game between ATL and Philly.  The same thoughts will carry over to game 2.

ATL is still 5-1 or 6-1 to win the east in some places. Still great value imo.

I'm really liking Hawks -7 1H. I'm interested to see if that's what you end up playing.

Hawks vs Philadelphia

-I was actually very impressed with the 76ers defensive effort in the first matchup between these two.  The Hawks struggled to score inside the paint as Noel deflected and redirected shots all night.  The Hawks were also ice cold from 3 and everyone other than Korver combined for 5/23 from 3.  The Hawks offense seemed pretty lazy while they gave their usual great effort on defense.  Tony Wroten was also out for the first meeting.  Even after struggling in the scoring department, the Hawks won by 16 due to holding the 76ers to 79 points. 

-The 76ers are not a good offensive team in the halfcourt and they are forced to rely on freebie points.  I look at 4 areas when considering freebie points.  FTs, 3 ptrs, Fast break pts, second chance pts.  Atlanta has been doing a great job of limiting teams in these areas while the 76ers have been struggling in these areas.  The combination leads me to assume that the 76ers will struggle to score once again tonight.

-The Hawks are 3rd in the league in opponent FTs per game at 20.5.  The 76ers are 9th in the league for FTA's per game with 24.7 and dead last in the league in FT%.  They made 13/22 in the first game.

-The Hawks are 8th in the league in opponents 3pt% at 33.9%.  The 76ers are dead last in 3pt% with an atrocious 29.9%.  Philly made 6/25 in the first game

-The 76ers were actually successful on the fast break with 14 points in the first game.  ATL is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league because they think it's more important to get back on D and limit fast breaks.  This strategy has worked great so far this season and it really forces teams to beat a set defense that is very stingy.

-The 76ers are 21st in the league with an offensive rebounding % of 42.1.  They had 7 offensive boards and 10 second chance points in the first meeting.

-The 76ers have no offensive post presence and rely on their guards to create while the Hawks are one of the best perimeter defenses in the league.  The trio of Thabo/Carroll/Bazemore should lock down Wroten and McDaniels.  Teague/Schroder forced MCW in to 9 turnovers in the first meeting.

The Hawks have been getting off to great starts and then letting the opponent back in the game in the second half so I am going to try to avoid this trend.  I prefer the FG TT Under over the FG spread due to the Hawks elite second string defense.  The combo of Schroder/Bazemore/Thabo/Antic is a better defensive unit than the starting unit and they all come with a ton of energy every night.  These guys never loaf around when they are on the court.

76ers Team Total Under 93  MEDIUM

76ers Team Total Under 92.5 MEDIUM

Hawks -7 1st Half MEDIUM

I am also on SPURS ML +102 LARGE