I dont know man.I mean the hawks cant continue to play good d all year all the games.There will be letdown spots or they wont last until playoffs...this one could be one of them,it s a game they wont care about after all. Or do you think they will wait to rest until all star break?
They rested 4 of their top 8 players against Philly and still held them to 55 points through 3 quarters. This team is full of good defensive players and the bench gives great effort every time they are on the court. You will never see guys like Thabo and Bazemore loaf on the court and they are elite defenders.
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Quote Originally Posted by MoreGeezer:
I dont know man.I mean the hawks cant continue to play good d all year all the games.There will be letdown spots or they wont last until playoffs...this one could be one of them,it s a game they wont care about after all. Or do you think they will wait to rest until all star break?
They rested 4 of their top 8 players against Philly and still held them to 55 points through 3 quarters. This team is full of good defensive players and the bench gives great effort every time they are on the court. You will never see guys like Thabo and Bazemore loaf on the court and they are elite defenders.
Do you expect all hands on deck tonight for the Hawks? Or will they rest other guys?
That's the million dollar question. My best guess would be that Horford sees rest tonight. Korver and Thabo could also see rest but those two are cardio machines.
I would imagine that the starters will play fewer minutes than there 30 minute average if possible.
I will wait until the lineup is announced before I make any moves more than my medium play on Boston TT Under 99.
A parlay of either ATL/Mem/Chi ML or Mem/Chi ML/Bos Under 99.5 looks great tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by DAB12AC:
Barnes,
Do you expect all hands on deck tonight for the Hawks? Or will they rest other guys?
That's the million dollar question. My best guess would be that Horford sees rest tonight. Korver and Thabo could also see rest but those two are cardio machines.
I would imagine that the starters will play fewer minutes than there 30 minute average if possible.
I will wait until the lineup is announced before I make any moves more than my medium play on Boston TT Under 99.
A parlay of either ATL/Mem/Chi ML or Mem/Chi ML/Bos Under 99.5 looks great tonight.
That's the million dollar question. My best guess would be that Horford sees rest tonight. Korver and Thabo could also see rest but those two are cardio machines.
I would imagine that the starters will play fewer minutes than there 30 minute average if possible.
I will wait until the lineup is announced before I make any moves more than my medium play on Boston TT Under 99.
A parlay of either ATL/Mem/Chi ML or Mem/Chi ML/Bos Under 99.5 looks great tonight.
Thanks for the response. FWIW, I hit ATL (-6.5) last night but I may buy some if it back if Horford or someone else sits.
And regarding Korver - by no means is he overrated. Anyone who thinks that should consider watching them play. When they swing him the ball, the defense visibly panics and usually two guys immediately close out on him. Very few "role players" (if that's what you want to call him) have that effect on an offense.
GL tonight Barnes.
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Quote Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:
That's the million dollar question. My best guess would be that Horford sees rest tonight. Korver and Thabo could also see rest but those two are cardio machines.
I would imagine that the starters will play fewer minutes than there 30 minute average if possible.
I will wait until the lineup is announced before I make any moves more than my medium play on Boston TT Under 99.
A parlay of either ATL/Mem/Chi ML or Mem/Chi ML/Bos Under 99.5 looks great tonight.
Thanks for the response. FWIW, I hit ATL (-6.5) last night but I may buy some if it back if Horford or someone else sits.
And regarding Korver - by no means is he overrated. Anyone who thinks that should consider watching them play. When they swing him the ball, the defense visibly panics and usually two guys immediately close out on him. Very few "role players" (if that's what you want to call him) have that effect on an offense.
and for those who think Korver is a one trick pony or overrated.
He currently leads the NBA in +/- with a +326.
He's a warrior. Read this last summer and was blown away!
"Korver is also willing to test himself in unconventional ways. Elliott introduced him to misogi, the Japanese annual purification ritual some athletes have adapted into a once-a-year endurance challenge. Korver and Elliott stand-up paddled 25 miles from the Channel Islands to Santa Barbara last year. Korver may have one-upped himself with the misogi he did this summer.
Big-wave surfers build lung capacity by holding a large rock, sinking to the bottom of the ocean, and running short distances on the ocean floor. Korver and four friends decided to go back to the Channel Islands, find an 85-pound rock, and run a collective 5K holding the thing underwater.4 Each participant would dive down, find the rock, run with it as long as he could, and drop it for the next guy to find. Those waiting their turn wore weight belts and tread in water between five and 10 feet deep."
and for those who think Korver is a one trick pony or overrated.
He currently leads the NBA in +/- with a +326.
He's a warrior. Read this last summer and was blown away!
"Korver is also willing to test himself in unconventional ways. Elliott introduced him to misogi, the Japanese annual purification ritual some athletes have adapted into a once-a-year endurance challenge. Korver and Elliott stand-up paddled 25 miles from the Channel Islands to Santa Barbara last year. Korver may have one-upped himself with the misogi he did this summer.
Big-wave surfers build lung capacity by holding a large rock, sinking to the bottom of the ocean, and running short distances on the ocean floor. Korver and four friends decided to go back to the Channel Islands, find an 85-pound rock, and run a collective 5K holding the thing underwater.4 Each participant would dive down, find the rock, run with it as long as he could, and drop it for the next guy to find. Those waiting their turn wore weight belts and tread in water between five and 10 feet deep."
The starting lineup will be Teague/Thabo/Carroll/Millsap/Antic which is actually the Hawks strongest defensive lineup. I still like the team total under and will add a couple of plays.
I already had Celtics Team Total Under 99 MEDIUM from earlier
Added this small play mid day:
Grizzlies -6, Bulls -4, Celts TT Under 99 +481
and am now adding this parlay. The two parlays are half and half to create a full small play.
grizzlies -4, Celtics TT Under 98.5 +186
and one full small parlay
ATL/Grizz/Chi ML +169
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Quote Originally Posted by Camp_Nou:
Korver out also.
Yup.
The starting lineup will be Teague/Thabo/Carroll/Millsap/Antic which is actually the Hawks strongest defensive lineup. I still like the team total under and will add a couple of plays.
I already had Celtics Team Total Under 99 MEDIUM from earlier
Added this small play mid day:
Grizzlies -6, Bulls -4, Celts TT Under 99 +481
and am now adding this parlay. The two parlays are half and half to create a full small play.
At 3:03 PM on 1/2/15, I placed a prop bet for the Hawks to win the Eastern Conference +1500 (won my Hail Mary ML bet of OSU over Alabama, so I was spending my ill-gotten gains on some NBA/NFL prop bets).
Today, less than two weeks later, it's at +465. Even when I placed the bet my thought was all they have to do is make the Eastern Conference finals and, say, they're up against the Bulls, who eventually claim the #1 seed are around -220 favs to win the series, I could hedge and make money either way.
But I don't know if I'd hedge anymore. Damn! They's for reel! They're clearly in the driver's seat for the #1 seed. I know, there's still a half season to go, but I don't see how they falter like they did last year when Horford got injured.
Man, this is fun. I've been a Hawks fan since the team had Tree Rollins, Dan Roundfield, Charlie Criss, Spencer Hawes' dad, congressman Tom McMillan, fast Eddie Johnson and John Drew (who, I think, was snorting lines of coke on the court in between time outs), and the late great crank Skip Carey was the voice of the team.
I live in Los Angeles and all the Lakers fans would rather talk about Atlanta and how that team was put together rather than commiserate about Kupchak's stewardship over their team.
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At 3:03 PM on 1/2/15, I placed a prop bet for the Hawks to win the Eastern Conference +1500 (won my Hail Mary ML bet of OSU over Alabama, so I was spending my ill-gotten gains on some NBA/NFL prop bets).
Today, less than two weeks later, it's at +465. Even when I placed the bet my thought was all they have to do is make the Eastern Conference finals and, say, they're up against the Bulls, who eventually claim the #1 seed are around -220 favs to win the series, I could hedge and make money either way.
But I don't know if I'd hedge anymore. Damn! They's for reel! They're clearly in the driver's seat for the #1 seed. I know, there's still a half season to go, but I don't see how they falter like they did last year when Horford got injured.
Man, this is fun. I've been a Hawks fan since the team had Tree Rollins, Dan Roundfield, Charlie Criss, Spencer Hawes' dad, congressman Tom McMillan, fast Eddie Johnson and John Drew (who, I think, was snorting lines of coke on the court in between time outs), and the late great crank Skip Carey was the voice of the team.
I live in Los Angeles and all the Lakers fans would rather talk about Atlanta and how that team was put together rather than commiserate about Kupchak's stewardship over their team.
With back to back road games against Toronto and Chicago on deck, this is a huge weekend for the Atlanta Hawks. Bud has recognized this and has sat each starter + Antic in one of the past two games. This team is well rested and is ready to prove that they are the best team in the Eastern conference.
Atlanta vs Toronto
-It is true that Toronto is 2-0 against the Hawks this year, but I don't think these prior two matchups will have any say in what happens tonight. Toronto was fortunate by having two games against the Hawks early in the season when Horford wasn't his usual self and the rotations hadn't been ironed out. I'm going to ignore the first game but will discuss the second game which was game #13 of the Hawks season, their last loss before going on a tear.
-I have gave mention to the Teague interview after the second loss to Toronto a couple of times. I saw a pain in Teague's eyes that I had never seen before and you could tell that the team really wanted that win. This loss would prove to be the turning point in the Hawks season. The biggest key for this game was the absence of Thabo Sefolosha who is currently a top 3 perimeter defender in the NBA. The Hawks were forced to go small at the 2 and Shelvin Mack was stuck guarding Derozan at times. Derozan went off for 27 points. Toronto was also unconscious from 3 that night. They were 14/29 from 3 as a team and the bench was 8/14. They also made 28/33 FT's which equals 70 points from 3's and FT's. I saw two different styles of play that night as Toronto relies on iso ball and they made a ton of contested shots. Atlanta was making their usual open shots that result from elite ball movement. Ever since allowing Toronto to score 126, the Hawks have turned their full focus to defense. In the first 13 games, the Hawks allowed 104.15 points per game. Since then, they have allowed 93.04 over the past 26 games.
Keys for the game
-Containing Derozan and Lou Will. With Thabo out, Derozan and Lou Will combined for 49 points in the first game. Derozan is fresh off of an injury that kept him sidelined for 6 weeks. I doubt that he is ready to outplay a pair of stud defenders in Carroll and Thabo. I saw this tweet this morning, Of players who have defended at least 150 shots this year, Thabo Sefolosha leads the league in FG% against - 35%. Thabo will play a huge factor in this game.
-Teague vs Lowry. Teague has gotten the best of Lowry in both matchups this season. Lowry just doesn't have the speed to stay in front of him. In the two games played, Teague is 15/26 from the field while Lowry is 6/23. I fully expect Teague to have his way in this matchup.
-Bud vs Casey. Which coach do you want making adjustments. The obvious coach is Bud.
-Ross will likely draw the assignment of Korver once again. Ross is young and tends to get caught ball watching which is the last thing you want to do vs Korver. Korver is 10/13 from 3 in two meetings with Toronto this season.
-Keep Toronto off the boards. This is the one area that concerns me when playing Toronto. I think they will be fine as Atlanta has been a much better rebounding team as of late. The guards have been crashing more and ATL has turned in to a pretty good defensive rebounding team.
The Plays
-This will be an XL play for me. I am splitting it 3 ways. Two small parlays which will combine to make a medium play and the rest will go to the Hawks ML.
Hawks ML +102 LARGE + MEDIUM
Hawks/GSW/Wash ML +296 SMALL
Hawks ML + Wash -5 +166 SMALL
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With back to back road games against Toronto and Chicago on deck, this is a huge weekend for the Atlanta Hawks. Bud has recognized this and has sat each starter + Antic in one of the past two games. This team is well rested and is ready to prove that they are the best team in the Eastern conference.
Atlanta vs Toronto
-It is true that Toronto is 2-0 against the Hawks this year, but I don't think these prior two matchups will have any say in what happens tonight. Toronto was fortunate by having two games against the Hawks early in the season when Horford wasn't his usual self and the rotations hadn't been ironed out. I'm going to ignore the first game but will discuss the second game which was game #13 of the Hawks season, their last loss before going on a tear.
-I have gave mention to the Teague interview after the second loss to Toronto a couple of times. I saw a pain in Teague's eyes that I had never seen before and you could tell that the team really wanted that win. This loss would prove to be the turning point in the Hawks season. The biggest key for this game was the absence of Thabo Sefolosha who is currently a top 3 perimeter defender in the NBA. The Hawks were forced to go small at the 2 and Shelvin Mack was stuck guarding Derozan at times. Derozan went off for 27 points. Toronto was also unconscious from 3 that night. They were 14/29 from 3 as a team and the bench was 8/14. They also made 28/33 FT's which equals 70 points from 3's and FT's. I saw two different styles of play that night as Toronto relies on iso ball and they made a ton of contested shots. Atlanta was making their usual open shots that result from elite ball movement. Ever since allowing Toronto to score 126, the Hawks have turned their full focus to defense. In the first 13 games, the Hawks allowed 104.15 points per game. Since then, they have allowed 93.04 over the past 26 games.
Keys for the game
-Containing Derozan and Lou Will. With Thabo out, Derozan and Lou Will combined for 49 points in the first game. Derozan is fresh off of an injury that kept him sidelined for 6 weeks. I doubt that he is ready to outplay a pair of stud defenders in Carroll and Thabo. I saw this tweet this morning, Of players who have defended at least 150 shots this year, Thabo Sefolosha leads the league in FG% against - 35%. Thabo will play a huge factor in this game.
-Teague vs Lowry. Teague has gotten the best of Lowry in both matchups this season. Lowry just doesn't have the speed to stay in front of him. In the two games played, Teague is 15/26 from the field while Lowry is 6/23. I fully expect Teague to have his way in this matchup.
-Bud vs Casey. Which coach do you want making adjustments. The obvious coach is Bud.
-Ross will likely draw the assignment of Korver once again. Ross is young and tends to get caught ball watching which is the last thing you want to do vs Korver. Korver is 10/13 from 3 in two meetings with Toronto this season.
-Keep Toronto off the boards. This is the one area that concerns me when playing Toronto. I think they will be fine as Atlanta has been a much better rebounding team as of late. The guards have been crashing more and ATL has turned in to a pretty good defensive rebounding team.
The Plays
-This will be an XL play for me. I am splitting it 3 ways. Two small parlays which will combine to make a medium play and the rest will go to the Hawks ML.
-Keep Toronto closer to their season average in points scored from 3 + FT. Toronto averages 47 points per game from these and scored 70 in game 2. ATL is tied for 3rd in the league in opponents FT attempts per game. They do a great job of defending without fouling and i will be surprised if Toronto replicates their 33 FT attempts from game 2. The Hawks are also 7th in opponents 3 pt percentage. They should be able to hold Toronto closer to 50 points in these categories.
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I also meant to add one more key.
-Keep Toronto closer to their season average in points scored from 3 + FT. Toronto averages 47 points per game from these and scored 70 in game 2. ATL is tied for 3rd in the league in opponents FT attempts per game. They do a great job of defending without fouling and i will be surprised if Toronto replicates their 33 FT attempts from game 2. The Hawks are also 7th in opponents 3 pt percentage. They should be able to hold Toronto closer to 50 points in these categories.
Your analysis is always amazing. Only thing that scares me is that you take Hotlanta every time. You're right most of the times, but some time you might be wrong. I lean Atlanta myself. They're for real and they can't get enough respect.
I hope you are not wrong today...
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Your analysis is always amazing. Only thing that scares me is that you take Hotlanta every time. You're right most of the times, but some time you might be wrong. I lean Atlanta myself. They're for real and they can't get enough respect.
Your analysis is always amazing. Only thing that scares me is that you take Hotlanta every time. You're right most of the times, but some time you might be wrong. I lean Atlanta myself. They're for real and they can't get enough respect.
I hope you are not wrong today...
You are correct that I usually end up with bets in Atlanta's favor but I think I have been pretty conservative when betting Atlanta vs the spread. Their have been many games where I have avoided the spread and took them in a ML parlay or the opponents team total under. It's not like I am just betting the Hawks on the spread every night.
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Quote Originally Posted by milky24:
Your analysis is always amazing. Only thing that scares me is that you take Hotlanta every time. You're right most of the times, but some time you might be wrong. I lean Atlanta myself. They're for real and they can't get enough respect.
I hope you are not wrong today...
You are correct that I usually end up with bets in Atlanta's favor but I think I have been pretty conservative when betting Atlanta vs the spread. Their have been many games where I have avoided the spread and took them in a ML parlay or the opponents team total under. It's not like I am just betting the Hawks on the spread every night.
You are correct that I usually end up with bets in Atlanta's favor but I think I have been pretty conservative when betting Atlanta vs the spread. Their have been many games where I have avoided the spread and took them in a ML parlay or the opponents team total under. It's not like I am just betting the Hawks on the spread every night.
True. I forgot to mention that you're pretty selective when it comes to your Hawks. That is very impressive by the way. I took ATL today plus the 1 point, and I like it very much when you have them too.
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Quote Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:
You are correct that I usually end up with bets in Atlanta's favor but I think I have been pretty conservative when betting Atlanta vs the spread. Their have been many games where I have avoided the spread and took them in a ML parlay or the opponents team total under. It's not like I am just betting the Hawks on the spread every night.
True. I forgot to mention that you're pretty selective when it comes to your Hawks. That is very impressive by the way. I took ATL today plus the 1 point, and I like it very much when you have them too.
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