Just added this play. I am interested to see what player props are available for this game. I will be on the Jodie Meeks points under if they release one and its around 13.
This is a parlay with 1 open slot. I will probably fill it with a heavy favorite later today.
Parlay ATL -4 1st HALF, OPEN MEDIUM
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Just added this play. I am interested to see what player props are available for this game. I will be on the Jodie Meeks points under if they release one and its around 13.
This is a parlay with 1 open slot. I will probably fill it with a heavy favorite later today.
The Meeks prop came out at 11.5 pts with -115 juice. I'm very tempted to take this one but I am going to stay away. Thabo and Bazemore should be able to put Meeks in a straight jacket once again. I will be surprised if he scored 12 or more.
I have decided to take two Horford prop bets. Horford has been on a tear over the past 3 games and has made 27/32 from the field. His speed and elite shooting present a tough challenge for Drummond. He will knock down the open jumper if Drummond sags off and he can drive past Drummond if he plays him tight. Stan gave up on Drummond and decided to go small in the last matchup. This move led to the Pistons making their comeback. I believe we could see Stan use a short leash with Drummong once again if Horford starts hitting open shots.
Horford over 17 points +100 SMALL
Horford +1.5 Pts + Rebs vs Drummond +105 SMALL
These three plays are the only plays that I am making pregame. I may look for a live play opportunity if one presents itself.
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The Meeks prop came out at 11.5 pts with -115 juice. I'm very tempted to take this one but I am going to stay away. Thabo and Bazemore should be able to put Meeks in a straight jacket once again. I will be surprised if he scored 12 or more.
I have decided to take two Horford prop bets. Horford has been on a tear over the past 3 games and has made 27/32 from the field. His speed and elite shooting present a tough challenge for Drummond. He will knock down the open jumper if Drummond sags off and he can drive past Drummond if he plays him tight. Stan gave up on Drummond and decided to go small in the last matchup. This move led to the Pistons making their comeback. I believe we could see Stan use a short leash with Drummong once again if Horford starts hitting open shots.
Horford over 17 points +100 SMALL
Horford +1.5 Pts + Rebs vs Drummond +105 SMALL
These three plays are the only plays that I am making pregame. I may look for a live play opportunity if one presents itself.
-The first non-Smith game was a tale of two halves. ATL was up by 19 at the half and Detroit ended up losing by only 3. The Hawks made 8 3s in the first half while only making 2 in the second. The Pistons made 3 3's in the first half and 10 in the 2nd half. Over their last 13 games, the Pistons are averaging 11.2 3's per game at 38.5%. The Pistons would attempt 43 3's on that night, which is way above their average. This has become a common occurrence for teams playing a Hawks defense that locks down the paint. I saw an interesting stat yesterday that shows just how good the interior defense of Atlanta is.
"Teams shoot from farther away from the basket against the Hawks than
any other team, an average of 13.7 feet (per basketball-reference.com).
That's nearly a foot farther away than the league average (12.8)."
-In the first matchup, Drummond looked absolutely terrible. He ended up having a -13 +/- in only 17 minutes of play. Some people were saying that he was getting over the flu, but I'm not so sure as he seemed back to his usual self the next night vs Brooklyn. Drummond and Monroe present a huge size problem for Atlanta, but they are terrible pick and roll defenders. They are slow footed and they aren't the smartest defenders. There is no stopping Atlanta's PnR for Detroit.
Keys for tonight's game
-This will be the first and only nationally televised game for the Hawks this season. They have had one game on NBATV but that's nowhere close to being on ESPN. I don't even have NBATV on my cable package. I initially was going to lay off of this game, but the added ESPN coverage has reeled me in. The Hawks should be very motivated to give a good performance in their only national coverage for the year. Over the years, the Hawks have had a tendency of underperforming in nationally televised games. I believe they will look to stop that trend today.
-The Hawks are more rested than the Pistons. This will be each teams 7th game in 11 days. Each Hawks starter has rested one game and Schorder + Antic rested vs Chicago.
-Kill them with the PnR and PnP. Drummond and Mornroe cannot and will not hang with Millsap and Horford on the perimeter. They won't have much success stopping the lightning quick combo of Teague and Schroder either. The Hawks will rely on the PnR all night.
The spread is a little too high for my tastes. I will probably end up buying a few points and parlaying them with another team or two. I'm going to wait for the other lines to be released and then will be back with my play.
See, these spreads are getting up there now. I felt the same discomfort with this Det. Line as well. This is a example of a low value spread. Bulls +3 in Chicago is another despite the comfortable cover.
I'm sensing you will be on the fence and will start fading the Hawks shortly.
And I see it as a big challenge to cap effectively at this point where you know the hawks will win, but the spreads offer little value.
Still have a season of the run you've had in this thread is more than enough.
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Quote Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:
Detroit vs Atlanta
Recap of Game 1 without Smith
-The first non-Smith game was a tale of two halves. ATL was up by 19 at the half and Detroit ended up losing by only 3. The Hawks made 8 3s in the first half while only making 2 in the second. The Pistons made 3 3's in the first half and 10 in the 2nd half. Over their last 13 games, the Pistons are averaging 11.2 3's per game at 38.5%. The Pistons would attempt 43 3's on that night, which is way above their average. This has become a common occurrence for teams playing a Hawks defense that locks down the paint. I saw an interesting stat yesterday that shows just how good the interior defense of Atlanta is.
"Teams shoot from farther away from the basket against the Hawks than
any other team, an average of 13.7 feet (per basketball-reference.com).
That's nearly a foot farther away than the league average (12.8)."
-In the first matchup, Drummond looked absolutely terrible. He ended up having a -13 +/- in only 17 minutes of play. Some people were saying that he was getting over the flu, but I'm not so sure as he seemed back to his usual self the next night vs Brooklyn. Drummond and Monroe present a huge size problem for Atlanta, but they are terrible pick and roll defenders. They are slow footed and they aren't the smartest defenders. There is no stopping Atlanta's PnR for Detroit.
Keys for tonight's game
-This will be the first and only nationally televised game for the Hawks this season. They have had one game on NBATV but that's nowhere close to being on ESPN. I don't even have NBATV on my cable package. I initially was going to lay off of this game, but the added ESPN coverage has reeled me in. The Hawks should be very motivated to give a good performance in their only national coverage for the year. Over the years, the Hawks have had a tendency of underperforming in nationally televised games. I believe they will look to stop that trend today.
-The Hawks are more rested than the Pistons. This will be each teams 7th game in 11 days. Each Hawks starter has rested one game and Schorder + Antic rested vs Chicago.
-Kill them with the PnR and PnP. Drummond and Mornroe cannot and will not hang with Millsap and Horford on the perimeter. They won't have much success stopping the lightning quick combo of Teague and Schroder either. The Hawks will rely on the PnR all night.
The spread is a little too high for my tastes. I will probably end up buying a few points and parlaying them with another team or two. I'm going to wait for the other lines to be released and then will be back with my play.
See, these spreads are getting up there now. I felt the same discomfort with this Det. Line as well. This is a example of a low value spread. Bulls +3 in Chicago is another despite the comfortable cover.
I'm sensing you will be on the fence and will start fading the Hawks shortly.
And I see it as a big challenge to cap effectively at this point where you know the hawks will win, but the spreads offer little value.
Still have a season of the run you've had in this thread is more than enough.
Well I was worried that ATL may take it easy today after getting two wins that they badly wanted in Toronto and Chicago. This is pretty much the same scenario as the Milwaukee loss at home after Christmas with the only difference being that Detroit isn't smoking hot from the field like Milwaukee was.
I ended up taking the Hawks because I thought they would be pumped for national coverage and they have been everything but so far.
No 2nd half play for me. Just going to hope that they can cover the -7 and keep me away from a loser of a day. Looks like the Horford vs Drummond prop is shot. Hopefully, they will feed him more and at least get the 18 points covered.
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Well I was worried that ATL may take it easy today after getting two wins that they badly wanted in Toronto and Chicago. This is pretty much the same scenario as the Milwaukee loss at home after Christmas with the only difference being that Detroit isn't smoking hot from the field like Milwaukee was.
I ended up taking the Hawks because I thought they would be pumped for national coverage and they have been everything but so far.
No 2nd half play for me. Just going to hope that they can cover the -7 and keep me away from a loser of a day. Looks like the Horford vs Drummond prop is shot. Hopefully, they will feed him more and at least get the 18 points covered.
Home game lines for Atlanta are starting to get a little out of control and I will likely be skipping some games. I do think there is some value in tonight's line vs Indiana.
-As seen in the Detroit game on Monday, this Hawks team goes as Jeff Teague goes and he always plays well against Indy. This Hawks team is night and day when Teague is aggressive compared to when he is coasting. Indiana is his home state and I guess it gives him the extra motivation to play hard. In two games vs Indy this season, Teague has shot 15/25 FG for 46 points and 13 assists. Indy has no one that can stay in front of Teague and he will have his way if he wants to and I believe he will.
-Indiana is one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the league while ATL is one of the best interior defending teams in the league. You may recall my previous post where I mentioned the stat about ATL forcing their opponents to shoot farther away from the basket than any other team in the league, almost 1 ft farther than league average. This has held true in their games vs Indy this year. Indy averages 20.9 3 pt attempts per game and have attempted 32 and 27 in the first two matchups. Being forced to shoot more 3's is not a good thing for a team that shoots 32.9% from 3. Indy is 21/59
-ATL dominated the Indy offense through 3 quarters in each of the first two games. Indy scored 63 and 64 through 3 quarters in the first two. They got hot in each of the 4th quarters, by hitting 11 combined 3's, and scored 29 and 28 points.
-Hibbert always struggles badly against Atlanta. He is as slow as it gets in this league and Horford/Antic will get the looks that they want. Indy has started going small vs Atlanta more often and I would expect extra minutes from Luis Scola tonight. Scola usually plays well against ATL and has scored 12 in each of the matchups this year. He usually abuses Mike Scott in the paint.
For those who like player props, I have two strong leans tonight. I like Scola's points over if the line is under 10. Scola should see a few extra minutes tonight and he usually scores well when matched up with Scott. I also like Teague's point prop if it is at 20 or less, or his pts + ast prop if it is at 25 or less. I am going to avoid both since they tend to win I don't play them and lose when I do.
I will play Atlanta vs the spread due to me thinking Teague will come out ready to play tonight.
ATL -11 LARGE
Indiana Team Total Under 44 SMALL
ATL -6.5 1st Half SMALL
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Indiana vs Atlanta
Home game lines for Atlanta are starting to get a little out of control and I will likely be skipping some games. I do think there is some value in tonight's line vs Indiana.
-As seen in the Detroit game on Monday, this Hawks team goes as Jeff Teague goes and he always plays well against Indy. This Hawks team is night and day when Teague is aggressive compared to when he is coasting. Indiana is his home state and I guess it gives him the extra motivation to play hard. In two games vs Indy this season, Teague has shot 15/25 FG for 46 points and 13 assists. Indy has no one that can stay in front of Teague and he will have his way if he wants to and I believe he will.
-Indiana is one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the league while ATL is one of the best interior defending teams in the league. You may recall my previous post where I mentioned the stat about ATL forcing their opponents to shoot farther away from the basket than any other team in the league, almost 1 ft farther than league average. This has held true in their games vs Indy this year. Indy averages 20.9 3 pt attempts per game and have attempted 32 and 27 in the first two matchups. Being forced to shoot more 3's is not a good thing for a team that shoots 32.9% from 3. Indy is 21/59
-ATL dominated the Indy offense through 3 quarters in each of the first two games. Indy scored 63 and 64 through 3 quarters in the first two. They got hot in each of the 4th quarters, by hitting 11 combined 3's, and scored 29 and 28 points.
-Hibbert always struggles badly against Atlanta. He is as slow as it gets in this league and Horford/Antic will get the looks that they want. Indy has started going small vs Atlanta more often and I would expect extra minutes from Luis Scola tonight. Scola usually plays well against ATL and has scored 12 in each of the matchups this year. He usually abuses Mike Scott in the paint.
For those who like player props, I have two strong leans tonight. I like Scola's points over if the line is under 10. Scola should see a few extra minutes tonight and he usually scores well when matched up with Scott. I also like Teague's point prop if it is at 20 or less, or his pts + ast prop if it is at 25 or less. I am going to avoid both since they tend to win I don't play them and lose when I do.
I will play Atlanta vs the spread due to me thinking Teague will come out ready to play tonight.
ATL is 6th in the league in points per game. Indy has allowed more than 101.5 pts per game 8 out of 9 times when facing Atlanta or one of the top 5 scoring offenses.
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Adding this one late as the line just dropped.
ATL Team Total Over 101.5 SMALL
ATL is 6th in the league in points per game. Indy has allowed more than 101.5 pts per game 8 out of 9 times when facing Atlanta or one of the top 5 scoring offenses.
Giving this play a shot tonight. Chicago has given up 103 or more in 5 straight games. The Spurs have scored 110, 109 and 89 points in the 3 games since Kawhi's return. The 89 point games was against the Jazz who have some very good rim protectors. Chicago does not have rim protectors and I expect San Antonio to have success at the rim tonight which will open up the 3 ball.
Spurs TT Over 101 MEDIUM
I'm about to start working on the OKC vs Hawks writeup.
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Giving this play a shot tonight. Chicago has given up 103 or more in 5 straight games. The Spurs have scored 110, 109 and 89 points in the 3 games since Kawhi's return. The 89 point games was against the Jazz who have some very good rim protectors. Chicago does not have rim protectors and I expect San Antonio to have success at the rim tonight which will open up the 3 ball.
Spurs TT Over 101 MEDIUM
I'm about to start working on the OKC vs Hawks writeup.
I ended up getting distracted and hanging with some friends for a bit. So much for me posting non-Hawks plays anymore. I seem to do ok when I don't post them and fall flat on my face when I do. I didn't have a chance to watch the SA/Chi game but was shocked when I looked at the box score.
OKC vs Atlanta
-In my opinion, this is a matchup of a heavily overrated team vs a somehow still heavily underrated team. OKC's defense and offense isn't up to par compared to prior years. I saw a comment where someone noted that OKC will be used to the Spurs style which will give them an advantage. I have to laugh at this thought as Bud is twice the coach that Scott Brooks is and the Hawks don't run an exact replica of the Spurs offense while OKC runs the same offensive sets time after time. The familiarity angle definitely favors the Hawks.
-I constantly fall back on the Hawks elite interior defense. The Hawks are top 5 in paint points allowed this year and are 6th in opponents 3 pt%. They do a great job of forcing teams to settle for jumpers and efficient 3 pt shooting is key if you are going to beat this team. The Thunder are one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the league. On the year, they are shooting 32% (27th in the league). In the 10 games since KD returned, OKC is shooting 31.06% from 3. KD is shooting 40.9% while the rest of the team is shooting 29.7%. Philly is the worst 3 pt shooting team in the league at 29.7%. You best believe that Bud will scheme towards taking advantage of this major weakness and it will favor Atlanta's already elite interior defense.
-Carroll and Thabo will make Durant earn his points. We all know that there is no stopping Durant but you can make life tough for him. Atlanta has the perfect defensive combo to make this happen. Carroll and Thabo are two of the best wing defenders in the league and Thabo should know Durant's preferences after playing with him for several years.
-Westbrook is the fastest player in the league and he looks like the flash against most teams. Outside of Westbrook, Atlanta has two of the quickest PGs in the league. Teague, especially, and Schroder will be able to mostly match Westbrooks speed. They have been routinely shutting down supposed "elite" pgs and I think they will be up for the challenge on Friday.
-OKC will likely rely on Waiters and Morrow to defend Korver for most of the game. If there has ever been a recipe for disaster, this is it. Korver will get free multiple times in this game due to the lack of awareness of these two.
-In the 10 games since Durant's return, OKC has faced 4 top 10 scoring offenses and they have given up 134, 117, 112, and 115 points. Atlanta is 7th at 103.2 pts per game. OKC's offense has been stagnant as they have only eclipsed the probable team total line of 202.5 in 4 out of 10 games during regulation.
I am going to wait until all of the lines are posted before posting final plays tomorrow. I'm confident that Atlanta wins this one and my initial leans are ATL winning, OKC TT under, ATL TT Over, Korver pts Over.
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I ended up getting distracted and hanging with some friends for a bit. So much for me posting non-Hawks plays anymore. I seem to do ok when I don't post them and fall flat on my face when I do. I didn't have a chance to watch the SA/Chi game but was shocked when I looked at the box score.
OKC vs Atlanta
-In my opinion, this is a matchup of a heavily overrated team vs a somehow still heavily underrated team. OKC's defense and offense isn't up to par compared to prior years. I saw a comment where someone noted that OKC will be used to the Spurs style which will give them an advantage. I have to laugh at this thought as Bud is twice the coach that Scott Brooks is and the Hawks don't run an exact replica of the Spurs offense while OKC runs the same offensive sets time after time. The familiarity angle definitely favors the Hawks.
-I constantly fall back on the Hawks elite interior defense. The Hawks are top 5 in paint points allowed this year and are 6th in opponents 3 pt%. They do a great job of forcing teams to settle for jumpers and efficient 3 pt shooting is key if you are going to beat this team. The Thunder are one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the league. On the year, they are shooting 32% (27th in the league). In the 10 games since KD returned, OKC is shooting 31.06% from 3. KD is shooting 40.9% while the rest of the team is shooting 29.7%. Philly is the worst 3 pt shooting team in the league at 29.7%. You best believe that Bud will scheme towards taking advantage of this major weakness and it will favor Atlanta's already elite interior defense.
-Carroll and Thabo will make Durant earn his points. We all know that there is no stopping Durant but you can make life tough for him. Atlanta has the perfect defensive combo to make this happen. Carroll and Thabo are two of the best wing defenders in the league and Thabo should know Durant's preferences after playing with him for several years.
-Westbrook is the fastest player in the league and he looks like the flash against most teams. Outside of Westbrook, Atlanta has two of the quickest PGs in the league. Teague, especially, and Schroder will be able to mostly match Westbrooks speed. They have been routinely shutting down supposed "elite" pgs and I think they will be up for the challenge on Friday.
-OKC will likely rely on Waiters and Morrow to defend Korver for most of the game. If there has ever been a recipe for disaster, this is it. Korver will get free multiple times in this game due to the lack of awareness of these two.
-In the 10 games since Durant's return, OKC has faced 4 top 10 scoring offenses and they have given up 134, 117, 112, and 115 points. Atlanta is 7th at 103.2 pts per game. OKC's offense has been stagnant as they have only eclipsed the probable team total line of 202.5 in 4 out of 10 games during regulation.
I am going to wait until all of the lines are posted before posting final plays tomorrow. I'm confident that Atlanta wins this one and my initial leans are ATL winning, OKC TT under, ATL TT Over, Korver pts Over.
Nice write up as usual. OKC is dangerous because they have guys that can get hot but I still like the Hawks here too. I saw the line at -4 but I think a lot of people will play OKC and we might be able to get a better line. I also noticed the last two games that OKC has not started well, so maybe a 1H play?
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Nice write up as usual. OKC is dangerous because they have guys that can get hot but I still like the Hawks here too. I saw the line at -4 but I think a lot of people will play OKC and we might be able to get a better line. I also noticed the last two games that OKC has not started well, so maybe a 1H play?
Nice write up as usual. OKC is dangerous because they have guys that can get hot but I still like the Hawks here too. I saw the line at -4 but I think a lot of people will play OKC and we might be able to get a better line. I also noticed the last two games that OKC has not started well, so maybe a 1H play?
The difference is OKC has two, maybe three guys who can get hot. ATL has more than a handful. I will take my chances with ATL's shooters over OKC's. ATL is 2nd in the league in 3pt % this year while OKC is 29th in the last 10 games. ATL's constant movement on offense will force Westbrook/Durant to work hard on defense and it will lead to tired legs on offense. All OKC does is run ISOs, they have zero ball movement on offense.
You are about to see ISOball and teamball collide tomorrow. I prefer to be on the side of teamball where every one is a threat on offense and every one can play defense.
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Quote Originally Posted by PickASide:
Nice write up as usual. OKC is dangerous because they have guys that can get hot but I still like the Hawks here too. I saw the line at -4 but I think a lot of people will play OKC and we might be able to get a better line. I also noticed the last two games that OKC has not started well, so maybe a 1H play?
The difference is OKC has two, maybe three guys who can get hot. ATL has more than a handful. I will take my chances with ATL's shooters over OKC's. ATL is 2nd in the league in 3pt % this year while OKC is 29th in the last 10 games. ATL's constant movement on offense will force Westbrook/Durant to work hard on defense and it will lead to tired legs on offense. All OKC does is run ISOs, they have zero ball movement on offense.
You are about to see ISOball and teamball collide tomorrow. I prefer to be on the side of teamball where every one is a threat on offense and every one can play defense.
I just locked these two in. I'm really tempted to increase the size of these as I think ATL wins this one going away.
The last time Atlanta allowed more than 50 points in the first half was against Milwaukee on Dec. 26th. They have played 14 games since then and have given up 42.7 pts per game in the 1st half. 5 of these games were against top 10 scoring offenses and they held them to 43.4 points per 1st half. Bud is a great schemer and I expect OKC's offense to start slow as they adjust to what Bud shows.
ATL -4 LARGE
OKC Team Total 1st Half Under 52.5 LARGE
I also have ATL ML in an open parlay.
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I just locked these two in. I'm really tempted to increase the size of these as I think ATL wins this one going away.
The last time Atlanta allowed more than 50 points in the first half was against Milwaukee on Dec. 26th. They have played 14 games since then and have given up 42.7 pts per game in the 1st half. 5 of these games were against top 10 scoring offenses and they held them to 43.4 points per 1st half. Bud is a great schemer and I expect OKC's offense to start slow as they adjust to what Bud shows.
I have been sitting on a 5 team open parlay for a week or two now with the final leg to close. I am taking the OKC team total under 52.5 as the final leg and it will pay +1737 if it hits.
I really like this line and play.
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I have been sitting on a 5 team open parlay for a week or two now with the final leg to close. I am taking the OKC team total under 52.5 as the final leg and it will pay +1737 if it hits.
I ended up getting distracted and hanging with some friends for a bit. So much for me posting non-Hawks plays anymore. I seem to do ok when I don't post them and fall flat on my face when I do. I didn't have a chance to watch the SA/Chi game but was shocked when I looked at the box score.
OKC vs Atlanta
-In my opinion, this is a matchup of a heavily overrated team vs a somehow still heavily underrated team. OKC's defense and offense isn't up to par compared to prior years. I saw a comment where someone noted that OKC will be used to the Spurs style which will give them an advantage. I have to laugh at this thought as Bud is twice the coach that Scott Brooks is and the Hawks don't run an exact replica of the Spurs offense while OKC runs the same offensive sets time after time. The familiarity angle definitely favors the Hawks.
-I constantly fall back on the Hawks elite interior defense. The Hawks are top 5 in paint points allowed this year and are 6th in opponents 3 pt%. They do a great job of forcing teams to settle for jumpers and efficient 3 pt shooting is key if you are going to beat this team. The Thunder are one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the league. On the year, they are shooting 32% (27th in the league). In the 10 games since KD returned, OKC is shooting 31.06% from 3. KD is shooting 40.9% while the rest of the team is shooting 29.7%. Philly is the worst 3 pt shooting team in the league at 29.7%. You best believe that Bud will scheme towards taking advantage of this major weakness and it will favor Atlanta's already elite interior defense.
-Carroll and Thabo will make Durant earn his points. We all know that there is no stopping Durant but you can make life tough for him. Atlanta has the perfect defensive combo to make this happen. Carroll and Thabo are two of the best wing defenders in the league and Thabo should know Durant's preferences after playing with him for several years.
-Westbrook is the fastest player in the league and he looks like the flash against most teams. Outside of Westbrook, Atlanta has two of the quickest PGs in the league. Teague, especially, and Schroder will be able to mostly match Westbrooks speed. They have been routinely shutting down supposed "elite" pgs and I think they will be up for the challenge on Friday.
-OKC will likely rely on Waiters and Morrow to defend Korver for most of the game. If there has ever been a recipe for disaster, this is it. Korver will get free multiple times in this game due to the lack of awareness of these two.
-In the 10 games since Durant's return, OKC has faced 4 top 10 scoring offenses and they have given up 134, 117, 112, and 115 points. Atlanta is 7th at 103.2 pts per game. OKC's offense has been stagnant as they have only eclipsed the probable team total line of 202.5 in 4 out of 10 games during regulation.
I am going to wait until all of the lines are posted before posting final plays tomorrow. I'm confident that Atlanta wins this one and my initial leans are ATL winning, OKC TT under, ATL TT Over, Korver pts Over.
This tip is very helpful and provides excellent insight. Thank you very much.
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Quote Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:
I ended up getting distracted and hanging with some friends for a bit. So much for me posting non-Hawks plays anymore. I seem to do ok when I don't post them and fall flat on my face when I do. I didn't have a chance to watch the SA/Chi game but was shocked when I looked at the box score.
OKC vs Atlanta
-In my opinion, this is a matchup of a heavily overrated team vs a somehow still heavily underrated team. OKC's defense and offense isn't up to par compared to prior years. I saw a comment where someone noted that OKC will be used to the Spurs style which will give them an advantage. I have to laugh at this thought as Bud is twice the coach that Scott Brooks is and the Hawks don't run an exact replica of the Spurs offense while OKC runs the same offensive sets time after time. The familiarity angle definitely favors the Hawks.
-I constantly fall back on the Hawks elite interior defense. The Hawks are top 5 in paint points allowed this year and are 6th in opponents 3 pt%. They do a great job of forcing teams to settle for jumpers and efficient 3 pt shooting is key if you are going to beat this team. The Thunder are one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the league. On the year, they are shooting 32% (27th in the league). In the 10 games since KD returned, OKC is shooting 31.06% from 3. KD is shooting 40.9% while the rest of the team is shooting 29.7%. Philly is the worst 3 pt shooting team in the league at 29.7%. You best believe that Bud will scheme towards taking advantage of this major weakness and it will favor Atlanta's already elite interior defense.
-Carroll and Thabo will make Durant earn his points. We all know that there is no stopping Durant but you can make life tough for him. Atlanta has the perfect defensive combo to make this happen. Carroll and Thabo are two of the best wing defenders in the league and Thabo should know Durant's preferences after playing with him for several years.
-Westbrook is the fastest player in the league and he looks like the flash against most teams. Outside of Westbrook, Atlanta has two of the quickest PGs in the league. Teague, especially, and Schroder will be able to mostly match Westbrooks speed. They have been routinely shutting down supposed "elite" pgs and I think they will be up for the challenge on Friday.
-OKC will likely rely on Waiters and Morrow to defend Korver for most of the game. If there has ever been a recipe for disaster, this is it. Korver will get free multiple times in this game due to the lack of awareness of these two.
-In the 10 games since Durant's return, OKC has faced 4 top 10 scoring offenses and they have given up 134, 117, 112, and 115 points. Atlanta is 7th at 103.2 pts per game. OKC's offense has been stagnant as they have only eclipsed the probable team total line of 202.5 in 4 out of 10 games during regulation.
I am going to wait until all of the lines are posted before posting final plays tomorrow. I'm confident that Atlanta wins this one and my initial leans are ATL winning, OKC TT under, ATL TT Over, Korver pts Over.
This tip is very helpful and provides excellent insight. Thank you very much.
I had a feeling that in the recent past, Teague has been able to hold his own or even outplay Westbrook, despite the former being on an inferior team. So I looked up the last 3 matchups in which Jeff Teague and Russell Westbrook have gone head-to-head:
Westbrook 6-21 shooting, 1-6 from 3, 11 assists
Teague 5-15 shooting, 0-2 from 3, 6 assists
Westbrook 5-18 shooting, 2-6 from 3, 9 assists
Teague 7-12 shooting, 0-0 from 3, 5 assists
Westbrook 9-21 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 11 assists
Teague 9-13 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 9 assists
Obviously, these games would have to be viewed in context, but I think it's fair to say that Teague has fared well despite, again, being on an inferior team. Things are different now. Given the circumstances I would expect Teague to outplay/outshine/out-everything against Westbrook tonight. Let's see. Let's hope.
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I had a feeling that in the recent past, Teague has been able to hold his own or even outplay Westbrook, despite the former being on an inferior team. So I looked up the last 3 matchups in which Jeff Teague and Russell Westbrook have gone head-to-head:
Westbrook 6-21 shooting, 1-6 from 3, 11 assists
Teague 5-15 shooting, 0-2 from 3, 6 assists
Westbrook 5-18 shooting, 2-6 from 3, 9 assists
Teague 7-12 shooting, 0-0 from 3, 5 assists
Westbrook 9-21 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 11 assists
Teague 9-13 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 9 assists
Obviously, these games would have to be viewed in context, but I think it's fair to say that Teague has fared well despite, again, being on an inferior team. Things are different now. Given the circumstances I would expect Teague to outplay/outshine/out-everything against Westbrook tonight. Let's see. Let's hope.
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