Flamingo's season thread. (mostly Hawks discussion)

Ah..very good.  Sorry to have misunderstood you, Sir.

I caught a bad break with Steven Adams randomly getting a migraine today.  I'm confident that the Thunder win that game if Adams would have played.  I expect the Thunder spread and ML to be a loss which will put meat even for the day after tailing cuzzins college pick.

Waiting on your analysis Barnes 

Come on back bro...don't let a loss beat you down.

It looks like I should have doubted their focus some as they clearly were not 100% focused on defense in that Minny game.  I do have to give credit to Flip for making the adjustment and going with Young at SF, Dieng at PF and Pekovic at C, but I'm confident that the 1st half under hits if the Hawks were playing their usual defense. 

There were several times where Minny was able to find players wide open under the basket and that doesn't happen when the Hawks are focused.  Minny made 12 FTs in the 1st half when Hawks opponents average only 15 per game for the season.  Flip's adjustment also led to quicker Hawks possessions as Dieng couldn't stay anywhere close to Millsap.  The Hawks had a lot of very short possessions which led to extra possessions for Minny.

It looks like the Hawks may start letting up some when facing the worst of the worst and I will take that in to consideration from here on out.

Brooklyn vs Atlanta

-Motivation is key anytime there is a large spread like this.  I believe ATL will have a lot of motivation tonight because of 3 reasons.  1.) ATL has the right to swap 1st round picks with Brooklyn in the next draft.  I just read an interview that was posted on Atlanta's local newspaper (AJC) and the players said they are aware of this and keep it in mind.  2.)  ESPN has picked up the game.  This team rarely gets a chance to play on national tv and they are 2-0 when doing so this year IIRC.  3.)  Minny scoring 100 broke their 8 game streak of keeping opponents under 100.  This team is a prideful bunch and Bud is a perfectionist.  I'm sure he had something to say about them allowing 100 to Minny.  I expect a better defensive effort tonight.

-Matchups.  Minny's ability to start Young/Dieng/Pekovic provided a matchup problem for the Hawks on the defensive end as they were outsized by active bigs.  The Nets will not have this luxury.  Lopez is much larger than Horford/Millsap but he is also very slow and just doesn't have the heart of these other bigs.  He tends to let the game come to him instead of forcing the issue.  Brooklyn's bigs do not pose near the offensive threat as Minny's, especially on the offensive glass.

-Carroll/Thabo vs Joe.  Joe killed the Hawks last year and he was held to 12 points in their first meeting this year.  The Nets offense tends to grind to a halt when Joe isn't scoring in bunches and I don't believe he will tonight. 

-The Hawks are just far more athletic and deeper.  When facing a high spread, I like to compare the bench players.  Brooklyn's bench is comprised of mostly D-league players and I don't think they can mount a comeback against ATL's bench.  I expect ATL's bench to increase the lead if both get garbage time minutes.

ATL -13 MEDIUM

Brooklyn 1st Half Team Total Under 44.5  MEDIUM

I may increase one of these two to a large play.  Still not sure and will probably wait until closer to game time.

Am I the only one who likes Nets team total under 89.5?

Btw, good job Flamingo 

 

That one should be money as well.  I just like the 1st half more as the team should be more locked in on defense during the first half.  The Hawks have had a few games where they go up big at the half and then coast in the 2nd half and let the teams score some. 

In the first meeting between the Nets/Hawks, the Nets only scored 31 in the 1st half and 44 in the 2nd half. 

That's a good point of view. My bookie doesn't have Nets 1H team total points so i'm probably going with the full game line.

Good luck for your plays, Flamingo.

Flamingo I like the under for the game 193. BOL tonight 

I'm upgrading the 1st half team total to a Large.  Brooklyn has one of the slower paces in the league and they are the 3rd worst 3 pt shooting team in the league. They are going to have to manufacture FGs against this swarming ATL defense and I think they will struggle in doing so.

Just jumped on this one live as well.  I think the Cavs are overrated.

Live Bet.

Just added another Live one.

Going with a medium play for the second half.  Either going to win a good amount of money tonight or break even

This is a very big spot for the Hawks coming up, you should know if this is their letdown spot more than anyone....Do the Hawks have what it takes to slow down Lillard and Aldridge tommrow??

Any thoughts on today games

Portland vs. Atlanta

-A review of the 1st game.  Most of this board faded Atlanta in the first matchup as everyone considered it a bad spot for Atlanta.  Atlanta had played the previous night in Utah while Portland had been home for 11 days and hadn't played a game in 3 days.  Portland started off fast with an 8-0 lead before Atlanta took control.  Atlanta pushed their lead to 20 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd before Lillard make some incredible shots.  In those last 3 minutes, Lillard made two 30+ft 3 ptrs and a very difficult turnaround fade from the corner.  This hot shooting knocked the lead down to 8 going in to the 4th.  Atlanta would keep Portland at a 10-15 pt distance throughout the 4th and take the victory.  This game wasn't as close as the score suggests.  Atlanta destroyed Portland with backscreens and cuts and piled up 64 points in the paint.  They shot 55.2% from 2, on 67 shots, while making 35.3% of their 17 3 pt attempts.  Millsap and Aldridge couldn't stop each other while Teague strongly outplayed Lillard.

Keys for tonight's game

-Rest and Location.  The Hawks are in the better spot tonight.  They have been at home for 13 days and this will be their 3rd game in the last 7 days.  They played 2 cupcakes this week and should be very well rested.  Portland flew to Brooklyn, then Cleveland and now Atlanta.

-Teague vs Lillard.  Lillard is the biggest key in this game.  Portland needs a big performance from him if they are going to win.  The bad news is, he will be facing a tandem of PGs who are dogs defensively.  Outside of the 8 pt outburst at the end of the 3rd, Lillard was 4/15 for 8 points in his other 36 minutes.  He has only shot above 40% in 3 of his past 15 games and two of these were against the Lakers.  On the other end, I have Lillard rated as one of the worst defending PGs in the league.  Lillard will likely play close to 40 minutes tonight and I say good luck to any one who has to keep up with Teague/Schroder for that long.  All signs point to Teague/Schroder winning this key matchup tonight.

-Millsap/Aldridge.  Neither player can guard the other.  Millsap is too quick for Aldridge and Aldridge is too long for Millsap.  Aldridge is the sole mismatch in favor of Portland and he needs to have a big game.  Atlanta will be victorious if Millsap can equal Aldridge's production.

I will be at Phillips for this game tonight and I expect the Hawks to continue their win streak.  Unless Lillard catches fire, I expect a 5-15 pt Hawks win.  I would be on the spread if I could get the Hawks at -5, but I'm not in love with having to give 7.  I will likely pass on making a play and will just enjoy the game live.

GL tonight fellas. 

Enjoy the game!  I feel like Lillard might give a little extra with those all star spots being announced.

He's definitely butthurt about it.  Here's a 4 minute video of Lillard crying about his all-star snub.  Pay attention to how many times he says I.

https://www.csnnw.com/blazers/lillard-says-he-felt-disrespected-all-star-snub

This is the typical mindset of most NBA players and this is what seperates the Hawks from the rest.  You won't hear all of this I, I, I, I talk when you interview Teague/Millsap/Horford or any one else on this Hawks squad.

With how poor he has been shooting over the past 15 games, I hope Lillard takes a ton of shots tonight. 

Have you faded the Hawks at all this season out of curiosity?

I haven't.  I will just pass on betting before I will fade this team.  It's hard to fade a team that is this consistent and I don't care to root against them.

I noticed the new thing is people betting live plays.....by the time you put your live play in and then post it the line could have changed 5 times by the time someone could actually read your post and then try to put it in themselves! So stop waiting your time posting live plays!

I wanted to play the under, but I'm going to have to stay away from this one because Lillard will be pissed and try to prove a point on the offensive end. This means he'll prob take it even easier on the defensive end. 

Demarre carroll is out tonight. Big loss for the hawks and im definitely not making any plays tonight