Flamingo's season thread. (mostly Hawks discussion)

Easy money on the first half plays.  

also:

Another profitable night betting on the Hawks with winning a Large, Medium and Smedium.  I lost my 2 small plays by 1 Horford missed FT at the end of the 3rd and 1 pt or reb from Millsap.

My key points on the 76ers game were pretty spot on.  Atlanta is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and they were able to out rebound Philly by 13 and had 16 offensive boards.  Teague and Schroder kept MCW in check to the tune of 8 pts, 9 assts, 9 turnovers.  Teams with poor ball movement will struggle to score against this swarming Atlanta defense unless they have an elite ISO scorer.

Orlando vs Atlanta

I have been really impressed with Orlando's progress and they look to be a very solid team in another year or two once the youngin's get some experience.  They have played some tough games against the likes of Golden State and Washington recently. Tonight, without Vucevic, I believe they will be outmatched by a veteran Atlanta team.  Most will probably be surprised when I tell you that Atlanta only gives up 98 ppg which is 8th in the league.  Their recent schedule of weak offenses has certainly helped this number, but I don't consider Orlando to be an above average or even average offense.  The only thing they do that is above average is shoot 3's at a 37.4% clip which is good for 7th in the league.

Keys for tonight's game:
-Demarre Carroll and Thabo will make Harris earn the majority of his points.  Tobias will not have an easy time tonight.  With Vucevic out, Oladipo will need to have a big game for the Magic to be successful on offense. 

-Millsap will have no problem chasing Frye around at the 3 pt line which is an advantage for Orlando against other teams. 

-Orlando's easy buckets will be limited tonight.  As mentioned in the Philly writeup, ATL struggles against good rebounding teams who move the ball well on offense.  Orlando is 29th in the league in assists per game with 19.4 and 26th in the league with only 9.2 offensive boards per game.  They will be missing Vucevic's 3.4 offensive boards per game.  They are 29th in the league in FT attempts per game with 19.9. 

-I just don't see how Orlando consistently scores in this matchup tonight.

-On offense, Millsap should feast on a weak framed Channing Frye while Horford is left open, against the slower O'Quinn, for his midrange shot where he is automatic.  This is a young team and they aren't disciplined enough to hang with Atlanta's movement for 48 minutes.  Orlando has zero rim protection and Atlanta guards should find some success at the rim.

Orlando Team Total Under 94.5 LARGE

1st Half Under 47.5 MEDIUM

ML Parlay Hawks/Thunder/Celtics +107   MEDIUM 

Hawks -8 SMALL

That should say:

Orlando Team Total Under 47.5 MEDIUM

Pero Antic has been ruled out tonight.  This will hurt the Hawks on the defensive end as Hawks opponents have an offensive rating of 109.1 when he is off the court and 92.7 when he is on.  This could turn in to a big problem if Vucevic ends up being active tonight.  Reports from morning shootaround seem to consider Vucevic unlikely to play tonight.

gl bud. hope vuv sits for you. Always appreciate the insight into hawks land you provide. 

Glad you are getting something out of my posts monster. Vucevic is out tonight and I expect the hawks to clamp down on orlando defensively. Muscala will likely get antics minutes tonight and he should do a decent enough job. He doesnt have the 3 pt range or the strength of antic but he is a better scorer and is quicker.

Flamingo i just stopped by to give you props. I never post but visit your thread pretty often. Love what the hawks are doing this season and I enjoy your incite. Keep up the good work.

Well, my analysis was pretty spot on again last night.  I got cute with my plays and it cost me some profit but I was able to finish the night in the green.  Tobias Harris was held in check and was limited to 13 points on 14 FG attempts and 4 FT attempts.  Orlando's poor ball movement was on display with a weak total of 14 assist.  Millsap and Horford had their way with Orlando's frontcourt. 

I will only be on the Hawks Grizzlies ML play for MEDIUM if Vuc plays

So Vucevic is playing and I'm not much worried about it.  I still don't see how Orlando can consistently score 25 each time through 4 quarters.  Their benches offense is nonexistent and they will go through scoring droughts at times tonight. 

Well, the novice in me made an appearance on Saturday night and I paid for it.  Luckily, I was able to gain most of it back on Sunday.  I'm learning to be more patient and to not overplay myself when I am hot.  I knew Saturday's game would be a tough match if Vucevic played and I ended up just rolling with the plays since I was already up a large amount. 

The top 2 plays likely hit if Millsap doesn't inexplicably leave Vucevic to go trap Payton at the top of the key and a few feet past the 3 pt line at the end of the 1st half.  Payton poses zero threat to score from that spot and he was able to find Vucevic for a wide open layup at the basket with .4 seconds left in the first half to give the Magic 47 points.

Chicago vs Atlanta

Chicago has owned Atlanta over the past few years and they will likely get the job done tonight if Atlanta continues to miss open 3's.  They remained cold, on Saturday, for the third straight game and they are now 27/86 or 31.4% from 3 over this span.  They have to knock down their outside shots since Chicago will win the battle on the interior. 

Horford still isn't back to his usual self and relies completely on jumpers for scoring now.  He's averaged 2-5-3 FTs per game over his career and that mark is down to 1 per game this season.  Antic is questionable and his interior defense + increased spacing on offense will be a big loss if he doesn't play.

I was surprised to see Atlanta favored by 2.5 in this one and am starting to wonder if Vegas knows something that I don't. 

I'm headed to Atlanta for the game tonight and I am hesitant to put money against the Hawks when I am going to be in the arena.  I may have to go ahead and take Chicago if Antic is ruled out.

Keys for Atlanta:

-Have to make 3's.  Like 40% of your 3's.

-Teague/Schroder need to outplay Rose/Brooks if ATL has a chance

-Limit Chicago's second chance points. 

Lean: Chicago +2.5

We will know if Atlanta is a pretender or contender in the Eastern conference after their next 14 games with only 2 games against teams below .500.

What a performance by Atlanta on Monday vs Chicago.  They came up short in 2 of my 3 keys for the game and were still able to pull out a win in a tough and ugly game.  That is the difference between this team and the previous year's of Atlanta teams.  They now have grit and play defense and can pull out wins when their shot isn't falling.  Atlanta overcame their 33.3% 3 pt shooting and 13 Chicago second chance points and a -17 rebounding differential by having supreme ball control (26 assts to 9 turnovers) and tough consistent defense.  Teague and Schroder outplayed Rose and Brooks. Horford looked like his old self for once and actually made an appearance at the FT line.

Pau has played 77 minutes over the past 2 games.  It will be interesting to see who all is healthy for Chicago once the playoffs roll around.  It's almost unheard of for a Hawks starter to see more than 35 minutes in a game and most see closer to 30.  this should be an advantage for them as the season wears on, but it can be a disadvantage for individual games.  For instance, a big part of my capping on Saturday's game on Orlando relied on the Hawks bench outplaying Orlando's.  Orlando overcame their bench weakness by playing their starters for 3-4 minutes longer on Saturday than they did on Friday.

So far, the weakest spot of the rotation for the Hawks has been the backup SG spot.  Bazemore has been playing great over the past 2 games and I expect him to be a significant player for Atlanta come playoff time.  He was out all summer with a foot injury and then had to adapt to a new role with a new system and teammates so a slow start should be expected.

Atlanta vs. Cleveland

I have no idea what to expect in this game tonight.  I do know that Atlanta is a team full of prideful players and they will want to have a better showing than the whooping that Cleveland gave them in their first matchup.  Cleveland has lost two of their last 3 and should bring their best tonight as well.  I expect a great game.

The best advice I can give is to completely disregard game 1 when trying to cap tonight's game.  Cleveland hit their first 11 3 pt attempts in game 1 and some of these were tough shots.  They were hitting shots 2-3 ft behind the line and off balance shots.  It was just one of those nights. Demarre Carroll was also out for game 1 and he will draw the assignment of guarding Lebron.  He's not going to stop Lebron, but he should be able to provide some form of resistance which was absent in game 1 when Lebron had 32 pts 7 assts 6 rebs on great shooting percentages.

No Play or Lean for me tonight.

I'm just going to sit back and enjoy this one.

Jeff Teague has just been listed as doubtful for tonight's game with a left hamstring strain.  I would think that the correct play would be Cleveland now.

It's time to see if Schroder can step up and carry this team.  He was on fire for a couple weeks and has cooled off considerably; however, his on-ball defense will always be consistent. 

Ehi hawks man :) what would you say about Horford over 21.5 points+rebounds vs the cavaliers?I'm attracted by the over,but i wanted to hear your opinion if possible

Hawks vs Rockets

I meant to add that the Hawks give up 39.5 points per game on the combination of 3ptrs + FTs.  The Hawks should have a good chance at winning if they can hold the Rockets to under 45 points total in these two areas.

Once again, the Hawks displayed great defense in their win over the Rockets.  One of my keys to the game were limiting the Rockets production in FTs and 3 ptrs.  Well the Rockets ended up scoring 59 points in these areas, but the Rockets also took a whopping 43 3ptrs which was half of their FG attempts.  The Hawks defensive rotations are as crisp as ever and they were able to shut down the Rockets interior play. 

I've seen enough of the other top 4 Eastern teams to confidently believe that this Hawks team is currently the best team in the East.  It is a long season so things can change, but I will take the Hawks over every team in the East at the moment.

Demarre Carroll deserves some love as well.  Every one knows about Korver's record shooting this season while Carroll's superb shooting on the road has gone completely unnoticed.  Through 11 road games, Carroll is shooting 48% from 3 on 4.5 attempts per game while guarding the best perimeter player.  Good luck stopping this Hawks offense when Carroll and Korver are shooting as well as they are.

Hawks vs Mavs

-I have great respect for this Mavs team and think they have as good a chance as any one to come out of the West.  Chandler's rim protection has already helped them make the jump to an elite team and the Rondo addition will be interesting.  Carlisle is as good as any coach in the league and he will have his guys ready to play.  With that said, I still like the Hawks to cover tonight with a good chance of winning.

-The Mavs have depended on Monta Ellis a lot this year.  Tonight, he will face one of his toughest tests of the year as the Hawks will send their wave of great perimeter defenders his way.  I expect Carroll, Thabo and Bazemore to frustrate Ellis and force him in to an inefficient scoring night.  Ellis will always get his points, its just a matter of how many shots it takes to get them.  On Saturday, Harden scored 12 points on field goals on 16 attempts. 

-The Mavs strength defensively is on the interior.  Chandler is the only above average or even average defender in this Mavs starting lineup.  Rondo may join him now that he has some motivation to give good effort.  Chandler corrects the mistakes of his teammates on the perimeter by offering elite rim protection. The problem is, the Hawks can score on the perimeter as well as any team in the league.  Chandler will be forced to chase Horford out to 16ft-3pt range where he has continued to be automatic (50.4% in this range).  This will open up lanes for Atlanta to cut and drive. 

-Who guards Korver?  Parsons seems like the only answer and his offense could take a hit because of it.  I said to keep an eye on Ariza's late game 3pt shooting on Saturday due to him guarding Korver.  Well, he was 3/5 from 3 in the first half and 0/4 in the second half.  Korver runs his defender ragged and they end up with tired legs and a flat shot. 

-The Mavs are 29th in the league in opponents 3 pt % at 38.8% while the Hawks shoot 38.8% on the road.  I don't trust Parsons ability or desire to chase Korver for 35 minutes and expect Korver to find some open looks. 

-The Mavs offense should be a little sluggish tonight.  They are still learning how to play with Rondo and will miss the highly efficient 9 ppg from Wright.  It looks like teams who rotate well and play as a team on defense are able to slow down Dallas and Atlanta does this well.  Here's the score totals for Dallas against teams in the top 10 for points allowed per game.  SAS 100, 99,  Mia 96, GSW 98, Mem 105, Hous 92, Indiana 100, Portland 87, Wash 105

That's 9 games against teams in the top 10 of points allowed and the Mavs are 0-9 against their team total tonight. The Hawks are 5th in the league with 97 points allowed per game. 

 

Hawks +4 MEDIUM

Mavs TT Under 106.5 LARGE

Hawks ML +160 SMALL

 

It looks like Jeff Teague is out again tonight.  This will hurt the Hawks chances of covering slightly but I think it greatly helps the Mavs TT Under.  Jeff being out means more playing time for Schroder and Bazemore and they are better defenders than Jeff.  The Hawks also operate at a slower pace when Dennis and Mack are running the point instead of Jeff.   The Hawks are #1 in defensive efficiency over the past 13 games.

I'm going to try my luck with a Korver prop tonight.  I'm 0-1 on player props on the year after losing by .5 point on a Milsap prop.

Great thread bro. Keep it up.

This game is going just as expected so far.  Vegas is giving out candy with this second half line

I'll give you a nice player prop for today bro.
Griffin points+rebound over
or just pointsyou choose.