NBA Playoffs

Let's do a recap for all games and see if i can see any patterns to the last 3 games and this one pertaining to stats.


Game 1

- Currently McCutchen is 8-2 for the Home team these playoffs.
- Currently Capers is 6-2 for the Home team these playoffs.
- Currently Phillips is 5-4 for the Road team these playoffs.

Refs total 18-9 in favor of home team.

GSW won and covered -5.5 pts @ HOME.

^^^^ i based my play solely on the refs Home team stats and also because initially i did like the Warriors to take the series. So a game 1 GSW win made sense to me. But Cavs got the calls all up until OT.


Game 2

Since 2006 w/ Foster reffing Lebron is 16-6 & 2-0 so far this playoffs.

Foster is now 10-1 for the Road team these playoffs.

But things get a little interesting w/ the other two refs.......

Brothers is 9-3 for the Home team.
Zarba is 7-3 for the Home team.

These two are 16-6 combined for the Home Team.
So now combined these refs are 17-16 for the Home team.

When home team is fave by between 5-9.5:

Brothers: 8-12
Zarba: 8-14
Foster: 9-13

= 25-39 for the Road team

^^^^^ i actually used the reg stats to determine the play on Cavs for game2. But mostly i based on Fosters glaring stats for the road and Lebron stats. Total ref stats for home team would not have been enough for me to play the home team.



Game 3

Lebron a whopping 23-6 record w/ Dan Crawford since 2006. Lebron 3-0 so far these playoffs w/ Crawford as ref. Last season Lebron & Miami 3-0 w/ Crawford.

Crawford is 7-3 for the Home team these playoffs. Lebron is 3-0 so far these playoffs w/ Crawford reffing - 2 @ home & 1 on the road. GSW are 2-0 w/ Crawford reffing these playoffs - 1 @ home & 1 on the road.

Davis has only ref'd w/ Crawford, so his stats are obviously identical. What's up w/ this? Is this duo just too damn good together @ carrying out league orders?

Stafford is 3-3 these playoffs.

This crew ref'd together game 4 hawks Cavs series. Cavs won at home.

Total = 10-6 for the Home team - not counting Davis since he only refs with Crawford. Other wise it would be 17-9 for the home team.

^^^^^^ i was initially leaning on the Warriors and would have bet them if it wasn't for the glaring 23-6 record Lebron has w/ Dan Crawford. I could not stick w/ my initial lean after seeing that. Plus i have been on a nice streak basing plays on Ref stats so no way i stop here.


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So now we have.....

Game 4:

Refs Total = 22-13 for the HOME team.

Lebron only 14-11 w/ Crawford reffing his game since 2006


- So that last 2 games i based my plays on head refs stats with Lebron. Fosters glaring road record just made it easier for me to pick the Cavs for game 2 also.
- Where as Dan Crawfords home team stats wasn't that compelling - not compared to his stats ref'ing Lebron games.
- Game 1 i did not base it on McCutchens stats reffing Lebron games instead i based on refs home stats and the fact i had GSW winning the series so only right they win game 1.


Game 1 probably is similar to this game 4 where the stat for Head ref w/ Lebron isn't much to go by but refs stats percentage exactly the same. So do i go for the home team here? (Cavs?).

I think Game 1 was actually supposed to be a Cavs win......my theory as i stated is that who ever ties the game in regular time is then favored in OT. So if it didn't go to OT i think Cavs would have taken this game.

Call me crazy but i'm actually thinking of going away from refs stats here and i'm still leaning Warriors.





BTW, i didn't check McCutchens stats w/ Lebron but Lebron is 8-12 since about 2009 (McCutchens wasn't reffing prior?) so funny that stat would have made me lean Warriors harder for game 1.

Yes, Refs receive memo's prior to games that they read through in regards to how they are supposed to officiate the game. Grab Tim Donaghy's book, he writes it in detail. All NBA bettors must read his book.

As you've read in my threads certain refs have tendencies and it shows in their stats - wich is how i have been winning. Some refs are more home friendly than others and vice versa for road teams. Some heavily favor certain players, some call more fouls, techs etc. So yes, refs have certain styles that helps execute league agendas. Disgusting ain't it

Correction:

Lebron is 15-13 in the playoffs since 2006 w/ Joe Crawford ref'ing.


Lebron was 9-8 playoffs w/ Joe Crawford ref'ing in his 4 yrs w/ Miami Heat.

Leaning:


GSW -2.5


I just don't feel the stats justifies a Cavs play. Although i put faith in ref stats i also follow my gut and gut says GSW. I think the fact that Lerbon is only 15-13 w/ Crawford isn't enough for me to take the pts w/ Cavs.

Though Lebronis 2-0 this playoffs w/ Crawford & Crawford 8-3 for the HOME team this playoffs & also ref crew are 22-13 for the HOME team.......I really shouldn't be straying away from what has made me money........but i'm just not feeling it this time.

The fact that Warriors are 2.5 Road faves even after that game 3 loss when they were only 1pt faves is a little strange to me.

As i stated it's either Cavs in 6 or GSW in 7. The fact that articles came out stating this is the highest ratings in NBA finals history has me thinking they will want to extend this and if Cavs take game 4 it risks this finishing in 5. Though GSW could still win game 5 and Lebron/Cavs can then finish it in 6 wich may be good enough for Silver but a game 7 would be HUUUUUUUUGE for the league.

BTW:

Home Dog ATS when line is between 0-4.5 - Refs are 13-31 for the Road Fave.

I did use reg stats over playoffs stats for game 2 and hit so perhaps i should use reg stats here also. REg stats i believe rang true for game 3 and obviously game 2 (25-39 for the Road team) because i used it to make a play on Cavs. Reg stats for game 1 was 31-32 small favor for Rd team - as i stated i believe that was supposed to be a Cavs win.


One of my concerns here is the fact the league has sent 3 consecutive refs to give Lebron & the Cavs the advantage......only for them to eventually lose the series? all that help for nothing? Again, is GSW that much superior that they need help in 3 consecutive games in order to extend this series? or are they indeed supposed to win the Championship.....in wich case they most likely win this game and not bother w/ a game 7 complete extension. Again, reminds me of chicago bulls series - foster, then both crawfords to finish off the Bulls.


It's 1am down here in Oz. gonna sleep on it and see if i get the same lean w/ a fresher mind.

3 ball 

Too  top it off "Never lost 3 games in a row"   

3 Ball -- 2 of the 3 refs worked this game

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2014-2015/recap896338.html

There was a 30FT differential for the Rockets

i read that Della did but not Thompson, what happened to him?

i didn't read too much into the Della news, let alone consider it determining any plays.

yeah, i wrote about it above Bob.

I was thinking gs too.. What u think about over n under 3ballbomber?

Play:


GSW -4


When refs playoff stats are in the same pattern or close with reg stats you make a play for the team the stats favor. If the refs playoffs stats conflict w/ ref reg stats, as it does for game 4, then you consider the ref reg stats.

This theory rings true for game 1 w/ refs playoffs stats 18-9 in favor of the home team, but reg stats 31-32 small favor road team. Even though GSW won & covered, the theory about OT games apply....i think that was actually Cavs game to win, until OT hit of course.

Not feeling ref playoffs stats this time. James record w/ Crawford isn't as compelling. This being the Highest Ratings in NBA HISTORY, if Cavs win, the league risks it going only 5 games. AS i said Cavs in 6 or GSW in 7. They milk this for what it's worth.

i think if GSW wins this game then the Over may be considered.

It means they get loose on offense and see the sorta offense we are used to seeing w/ the Warriors.

Ultimately it means refs don't allow physical defense on the Warriors like they have been for the last 3 games. It means Dellavedova won't get away w/ being overly physical w/ Curry - anticipate him in foul trouble here ( in a GSW win of course). Green won't continue to be raped by the refs & FT attempts will favor the Warriors (for once).

But if Joe Crawford was sent for Lebron then all of the above means nothing and GSW are cooked, grab a fork and stick it in em'.

3BB, since the games have been close are you worried about a GSW win but no cover?

If i was i would have bought the line down like i have plenty of times.

I think if GSW wins tonight the line won't matter. If indeed they are 'supposed' to win it will mean refs won't allow any physical D from the Cavs and Curry & crew will then be let loose on offense. It may be a blow out.

Don't be fooled by Lebron & the Cavs - their victories has been all by design from the league. Refs have determined the games outcomes thus far. They have had the advantage from the line with more FT attempts and Warriors has been called w/ more fouls this series. THat's why i'm not getting into the hype of Dellavedova and this whole Lebron is carrying the team and is leading to be the greatest performance in NBA finals history media hype. It's all contrived.

Correction:

"Ultimately it means refs don't allow physical defense on the Cavs like they have been for the last 3 games"

Total FT Attempts this series:

CLE: 83
GSW: 59

Total PF's this series:

GSW: 72
CLE: 67

PF's may not be that compelling but refs often even out boxscores. also there's more ways than just calling PF's to get players to the line or give possessions away (3 seconds calls, moving screens etc.)

For 3 games the refs have allowed a physical series in favor of the Cavs. Once they start to call more fouls it means they are not allowing the Cavs to get away w/ being overly physical, wich i think may happen here. A physical game bodes well for the Cavs since the refs can pick and chose wich fouls to call. But if they don't allow physicality they have to be more consistent w/ calls on both ends of the floor and it would mean players such as Dellavadova won't get away w/ hacking.

from -2.5 line jumped at -4. this is huge line movements. wow, with this line movement I don't know will refs allow GSW to cover.

I think the script was in way before the line moved - wether the league is favoring Cavs or GSW.

I think it's important to consider the initial opening line w/ GSW as Road faves spite of the Cavs taking the lead 2-1......are then made home dogs by the books the next game?!?! and now line has made a big leap to GSW -4? it's quite revealing to me.

I'm basing GSW play partly on the ratings, wich is the highest in NBA Finals History. I think this cannot be understated. CAvs take this game and Warriors are most likely done in the next and the league failed to fully profit on the series.

But for all i know there may be a blood bath for GSW backers after the game and this was all about getting Lebron & the Cavs their 1st title

Plays:

GSW -4
OVER 194.5


Super Line & Total Double:

Golden State Warriors +1.5 & Over 188.5


Atomic Line & Total Double

Golden State Warriors -2.5 & Over 183.5

Leaning on the Dubs as well.
It's really enjoying reading your insights every game.
Thanks for sharing it to us!
bol 3ballbomber!

GSW +1.5 2h


I'm liking Dubs to expand the lead in the 2nd half. Refs did a great job balancing the boxscore in the 2nd Q w/ GSW up by 10+pts......now they extend the lead to insure a Warriors game to tie this series and help extend the series.

his bookie hates him 

Thank you 3Ball for what you are doing You could just not posting this info and picks, and earn money by yourself easily, but instead you help people, who need this, never expecting something in return. You are a good man

Thank you 3Ball You are playoff bookie killer. And you prove it with you picks in previous seasons.

Thank you Ball.