Suns 25/1 to win West pretty good value..Yes?

That is a huge if, of course the Suns can win a playoff series but i think they will be lucky, very lucky to get past the 1st 2 rounds then they have to play the lakers.  Making bets just to hedge later that dont have a chance to win the actuall bet (the west) IMO is pretty nonsensical. you need them to accomplish so much to make a small profit, u should just make a bet u really think will win straight out and then hedge. 

And to your other post, no im not super confident in the lakers at the odds presented for them to win, i think they are overvalued.

I do wish you the best.

DUDE I AM TOTALLY PICKIN UP WHAT YOU ARE LAYING DOWN.  PHO HAS THE BEST OFFENSE IN THE WEST.  IF YOU FIGURE THEY BEAT PORT IN THE FIRST RND. THEN THEY PLAY EITHER DAL OF SA. DAL HAS THE WORST PT DIFFERENTIAL IN THE WEST. THE SPURS ARE A LITTLE SCARIER AS FAR AS OFF AND DEF GOES, BUT IF PHO PLAYS SA, THEN PHO WILL HAVE HOMECOURT ADVANTAGE AND PROB SHOULD PREVAIL. AFTER THAT YOU ARE ONE SERIES AWAY FROM WINNING THE WEST.

AT MY BOOK $50 WINS U $1050, AND THATS JUST TO WIN THE WEST

I LIKE THAT BET....THE ONLY THING I DONT LIKE IS THAT YOU ARE A BUFFS FAN, SO I SHOULDNT HELP YOU OUT OR AGREE WITH U. GO COLORADO STATE

If you don't like to make a gauranteed 1 or 2 unit profit, then that makes you a bad investor.........

... This is not a get rich scheme, but a simple ploy to take advantage of a bad line released by a book to make 2 or 3 units of gauranteed profit.  Yes, it will require 6 weeks of patience to cash in (or for my investment to "mature", using investor lingo), but actual time inputing the wager and doing math is a few minutes, so my hourly return rate is quite good for as little as risking $200 on the suns +2300.....

... And you clearly haven't read the previous comments in the thread regarding the math involved and/or can't understand the grade 11 math behind it.....  take a moment to work through the numbers on paper, using $100 as your 1 unit basis (eg, $100 is your average bet size)

Suns at +2500 is very good value !!

"People are judging the Suns on they're past playoff failures, this is a huge mistake."

This Suns team is much, much different and has a much better chance to win.

In the past they've been a pathetically weak rebounding team, one of the worst in the league, but now, with Lopez in the starting line-up this team has been very strong, even a dominate rebounding team, as good as they are in other areas combined with being a strong rebounding team this team is now posed for playoff success. 

I also have the Suns at +4000 made a week or so ago. I'm not hedging.

Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:

I just don't like a team that typically sucks on defense as much as Phoenix does to win it all.

Run and Gun teams make it to the 2nd round at best.

Good Luck  There's always a chance they win until they're knocked out. 

Sucks on defense ???

Defensive field goal percentage .....................................

Suns --- 45.2%

Dallas --- 45.7%

Denver --- 45.5%

Spurs --- 45.2%

Jazz --- 44.9%

Lakers --- 44.6%

Don't make the mistake of judging a teams defense by points given-up.

Points given-up do not take into account game pace, the Suns play a up tempo style game which produces more possesions per game, of coarse they'll give-up more points.

Other than the Lakers who are  ahead of the pack, the Suns are right there with any of the best teams in the west.

with roy out they should get into the second round pretty easily....

Im a die hard laker fan. I have heavy money on them to win it all since the start of the year. The previous 2 years I bet them heavy to win the west, and had the finals last year. I never imagined the lakers looking so cold the 2nd half of the year. When the season started I only had 2 hedge bets on the cavs and orlando in case LA lost in the finals to one of them.

At this point about 2 weeks ago I added a Dallas bet to win the west to cover and you better believe when I woke today and saw the Suns at 23 to 1 to win the West after I saw that Jazz game last night I jumped all over that. Sometimes you have to cover all angles in order to not lose alot of money. Even if it takes away from you final $ goal!!!

I will admit I am not feeling as strong about my chances of winning my Laker title bet as I was before the all star break. That doesn't make me any less of a fan I am just being a realist. 23 to 1 is good value on the suns in my eyes especially if the Lakers get knocked out in the first or 2nd round. That way the west is going anything is possible. I still have faith in the Lake Show.Good luck all!!!!

Basketball Prospectus did a project on these "extreme" teams like the Suns(1st in offensive eff, 25th in def eff) and their conclusion is that these teams generally underachieve in the playoffs.

The teams with the best chance to achieve or overachieve are

1. Spurs 2. Mavs  3 Jazz 4 Magic 5 Cavs 6 Lakers

The biggest problem with the Mavs is that they were barely above average in either offensive efficiency or defensive efficiency.  If I had to make a value bet Id take the Spurs.

Interesting research by BP.

My research indicates the Suns will do much better than the Mavs................

The single most important stat in the NBA, "Field Goal Percentage", the team that shoots the higher percentage wins about 79% of the games.

Suns outshot they're opponents by a whopping 4%

Mavs by a pathetically weak .7 of a %, one of the worst no.2 seeds in NBA History.

And to top it off, the 2cd most important stat, rebounding, Suns better than Mavs here to.

Don't see how any research could show Mavs doing better than Suns this postseason, but hey, let the games begin.................................. 

Likewise..haha