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Suns 25/1 to win West pretty good value..Yes?

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Posted: #101
I'd like to see Nash win one before retiring.  I mean, he's not getting any younger.  But I'm calling it the way I see it.  Suns are overmatched vs LAL.
 
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Posted: #102

Congrats to all who have a big price on the Suns to come out of the west. I thought there was good value from the start of this thread IF you were willing to hedge. Personally I will root for the Suns but I see the following problems:

1. Kobe may try guarding Nash to help neutralize him

2. Frye and Dudley won't have mismatches on them b/c the Lakers have long athletic defenders unlike the Spurs

3. It will be tough for Amare if he's not knocking down jumpers(which he does consistently) b/c he will have to go in among the trees to play his normal game. Also, keep in mind he could get in foul trouble trying to guard the Laker bigs

4. Dragic, while a good player, won't have the foot speed to punish farmar or shannon brown off the bench like he did to the spurs

5. Grant Hill, JRich or whoever won't have have as much on Offense after guarding Kobe

6. Coaching is on the Lakers side athough NO ON should sleep on what Gentry has done(I will def admit I thought he was done last year). Speaking of which I don't think Majerle would be a good coach in Philly.

I still believe that any team that shoots his 44% from 3 has a shot but the matchups are very tough.  to the big PHX payout but like Whiz who won 20 in a row in streak survivor then lost I'd DEF hedge my bet b/c 1-2 units is still a nice pay day.

 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

Interesting research by BP.

My research indicates the Suns will do much better than the Mavs................

The single most important stat in the NBA, "Field Goal Percentage", the team that shoots the higher percentage wins about 79% of the games.

Suns outshot they're opponents by a whopping 4%

Mavs by a pathetically weak .7 of a %, one of the worst no.2 seeds in NBA History.

And to top it off, the 2cd most important stat, rebounding, Suns better than Mavs here to.

Don't see how any research could show Mavs doing better than Suns this postseason, but hey, let the games begin.................................. 

 

 

  The so-called paper-tiger roars again !!!!!

Ride the Suns baby, they're looking like the 2004 Pistons.

Suns can and probally will beat the mighty Lakers !!!!

 
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Posted: #104

Quote Originally Posted by coloradobuff:

Just went to sportsbook.com and put a bet on Suns at 25/1 to win west.

Think theres some good value there with way they have played last couple months.

Thoughts?

My thought exactly...I put a small wager on them to win the west and also the championship. I got the same odds on the west at 25/1 so I hoping the Jazz can extend this series and wear the boys in Yellow down a bit before this next series, but there will be money to be made on the Lakers/Suns series. It will be very high scoring. I can see every game going over 218-220 points.

 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by SCROG:

The Spurs were a shell of years past. Lakers are defending World Champs... that's a helluva difference...Gasol's a finesse player, one of the best in the World...then you have Bynum, Odom. Amare will have his hands full.


Were you one of the guys who bet the Spurs down to E?? After the series, everyone says that they are done.
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by SCROG:

Touts use the term "value" as a sales technique..Wasn't a compliment or a slam...I don't see value in a likely losing wager, that's all.



I couldn't get through the first page of this garbage thread...

You think value was a term/theory created by touts? PLEASE.

You don't think a losing wager can have value? PLEASE.

ALL bettors can do is look for value; for any other system is pure non-sense and does not make logical sense. You must look at every single game as a modded coin flip where one side is favoured proportionately to it's odds and vice versa. The only time we will win is if we consistently pick games where we have positive expected value (+EV).

Example: If the Suns are paying +250 for Game 1 across the board but they are paying +300 elsewhere, YOU SHOULD PLAY IT. You should never let a +EV opportunity pass you; because if you play them consistently, you will end up profiting in the long haul.

Often, all the prices across the industry are the same; so if you fancy yourself an experienced capper, then you can try to find +EV on your own through your individual capping methods. If you can find weaknesses in the line, you will make profit.

For example, the Boston Bruins paying -146 seems like a good 'value' bet to me. I have them winning this game about 63.50% of the time leaving me with a nice edge.

Even if it loses, it still had good value to me. Some might say that this is too subjective -- but the fact still remains that if you can get a better price than the industry standard, it is a good bet whether you win or lose.

Final example: If the Yankees are playing the Orioles... clearly the Yanks are a heavy-heavy favourite... but if you could get +10000 for the Orioles -- it would be a good bet --regardless if they won or lost.

Number one reason why 90% of gamblers lose is because they're gambling by trying to pick winners. When you start looking at it as investing, and trying to pick your value spots, you'll start winning.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:



I couldn't get through the first page of this garbage thread...

You think value was a term/theory created by touts? PLEASE.

You don't think a losing wager can have value? PLEASE.

ALL bettors can do is look for value; for any other system is pure non-sense and does not make logical sense. You must look at every single game as a modded coin flip where one side is favoured proportionately to it's odds and vice versa. The only time we will win is if we consistently pick games where we have positive expected value (+EV).

Example: If the Suns are paying +250 for Game 1 across the board but they are paying +300 elsewhere, YOU SHOULD PLAY IT. You should never let a +EV opportunity pass you; because if you play them consistently, you will end up profiting in the long haul.

Often, all the prices across the industry are the same; so if you fancy yourself an experienced capper, then you can try to find +EV on your own through your individual capping methods. If you can find weaknesses in the line, you will make profit.

For example, the Boston Bruins paying -146 seems like a good 'value' bet to me. I have them winning this game about 63.50% of the time leaving me with a nice edge.

Even if it loses, it still had good value to me. Some might say that this is too subjective -- but the fact still remains that if you can get a better price than the industry standard, it is a good bet whether you win or lose.

Final example: If the Yankees are playing the Orioles... clearly the Yanks are a heavy-heavy favourite... but if you could get +10000 for the Orioles -- it would be a good bet --regardless if they won or lost.

Number one reason why 90% of gamblers lose is because they're gambling by trying to pick winners. When you start looking at it as investing, and trying to pick your value spots, you'll start winning.


Nice to see SOMEONE out there who gets it.
 
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Posted: #108

still kicking myself that i didn't make this bet... when you made this thread they were at 26:1 at my book, and i thought that was good value, and i was giving some serious thought... but i didn't think they could get past the Mavericks... the MAVERICKS!!!

 
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Posted: #109

Suns need to steal a game in LA to win this series

 
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Posted: #110

It was a post within a thread.... you stand corrected... and of course i respectfully disagree with the concept of value in a losing wager... that's nonsense and complete bs... and i do win 

 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by SCROG:

It was a post within a thread.... you stand corrected... and of course i respectfully disagree with the concept of value in a losing wager... that's nonsense and complete bs... and i do win 



Well let's pose the question this way...

If I was to offer you Suns +2500 to win the west right now, would you take it?

If your answer is no, you have no concept of the word "hedge" but I think your answer would be yes.
 
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Posted: #112

Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:



Were you one of the guys who bet the Spurs down to E?? After the series, everyone says that they are done.

No. I never do series bets.Yet, that is.

 
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Posted: #113
I'd like to see Nash and Hill make it to the big show as well. 2 classy guys who play the game the right way

 
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Posted: #114

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



Well let's pose the question this way...

If I was to offer you Suns +2500 to win the west right now, would you take it?

If your answer is no, you have no concept of the word "hedge" but I think your answer would be yes.

No I would not...It's a loser.I don't throw money away on losing bets even if it is $1... that's just me rangerz...

 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by SCROG:

No I would not...It's a loser.I don't throw money away on losing bets even if it is $1... that's just me rangerz...



Bro, do you seriously not understand how this works?

Say you had Suns +2500 for $100 to win $2500 and the Lakers series price is -300 in the conference final.

You have Suns $100 to win $2500.

You then take the Lakers for $2100 to win $700.

If the Suns win you are up $400, and if the Lakers win you are up $600. It doesn't matter whether you like the team to win it or not. You can guarantee yourself profit on each side. Anyone who doesn't understand this has a lot to learn...

 
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Posted: #116
You don't need the Suns to win the west to make money on this bet. It's amazing to me how people still fail to understand this concept....
 
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Posted: #117
You asked if i would take the suns +2500 right now? You didn't throw in the Lakers -300 and play it both ways. Go back and read your question.
 
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Posted: #118
I would hedge
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by SCROG:

You asked if i would take the suns +2500 right now? You didn't throw in the Lakers -300 and play it both ways. Go back and read your question.


I read the question and it was a simple one. "Would you take the Suns at +2500 right now?" Obviously taking the other side is something you would do in a completely separate wager.

Anyone who answers this question with a no just doesn't understand investing and will NEVER make money betting on sports.
 
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Posted: #120
The point is simple. You are getting +2500 on a wager in which the "true value" is +300 at most. I would HOPE people could understand the idea of taking the Lakers to guarantee profit.

It's pretty self explanatory, I didn't think it had to be explained.

Nothing against you SCROG, but it drives me crazy when people don't understand how this works. People would rather take the team they "think will win" compared to using math to their advantage to make money in gambling. It's really amazing.
 
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Posted: #121
Oh, of course, no offense taken rangerz. Thanks for the education on hedging. I'm sure i'll be a better gambler thanks to you..Indebted forever....
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by SCROG:

Oh, of course, no offense taken rangerz. Thanks for the education on hedging. I'm sure i'll be a better gambler thanks to you..Indebted forever....


Are you an idiot or an ass? -115 either way.

Based on that comment, I'll go with the latter, but previously when you said there is no value in a wager that ultimately loses, I'm inclined to believe the former. It's quite the conundrum.

The only way your statement makes any sense is if you absolutely know which team will win, which puts you way ahead of everyone on this board. Since you obviously can't do that, what you should be doing is betting into positive expected value.
 
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Posted: #123
It was a sarcastic reply agreeing with rangerz on hedging. Take it easy. You people take this so serious and it's not that difficult to pick winners...
 
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Posted: #124

Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:



Are you an idiot or an ass? -115 either way.

Based on that comment, I'll go with the latter, but previously when you said there is no value in a wager that ultimately loses, I'm inclined to believe the former. It's quite the conundrum.

The only way your statement makes any sense is if you absolutely know which team will win, which puts you way ahead of everyone on this board. Since you obviously can't do that, what you should be doing is betting into positive expected value.

OK you callin me out on value? Put 2 units on Hawks +110 and thank me tommorrow night....

 
 
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Posted: #125

I backed the Suns at 14/1 and will definitely hedge although only to get double my original stake back. You keep your bankroll in play and then you have a positive amount to hedge some more based on who you like in games 3-5.

If you can do this on all of your "Futures" i.e get value prices with a view to hedging you should always show a profit.

If the Jazz had of got through vs the Lakers, then I would more or less guarantee you would hedge so it's whether or not you really think the Suns can beat the Lakers.

Best of luck on your decision, I'll be rooting for a Suns split in LaLa land and then locking in some more around the Lakers -150ish range.

I did the same with the Nuggets last year at -130 after game 2 although the Lakers were -275 prior to the series.

 

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