Any team that shoots 44% or whatever they shoot from 3 has a chance to beat ANY team if they are hot during a 7 games series. Seeing as 4 of 5 people on the court at any given time can knock down the 3-ball so you can't necessarily cheat to help the amare/nash pick and roll or else nash is hitting the open man so it does cause tough match ups as well. They are lackluster on the defensive side of the ball though so not sure they can come out of the west but there is value there especially if you're willing to hedge down the road.
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Any team that shoots 44% or whatever they shoot from 3 has a chance to beat ANY team if they are hot during a 7 games series. Seeing as 4 of 5 people on the court at any given time can knock down the 3-ball so you can't necessarily cheat to help the amare/nash pick and roll or else nash is hitting the open man so it does cause tough match ups as well. They are lackluster on the defensive side of the ball though so not sure they can come out of the west but there is value there especially if you're willing to hedge down the road.
Any team that shoots 44% or whatever they shoot from 3 has a chance to beat ANY team if they are hot during a 7 games series. Seeing as 4 of 5 people on the court at any given time can knock down the 3-ball so you can't necessarily cheat to help the amare/nash pick and roll or else nash is hitting the open man so it does cause tough match ups as well. They are lackluster on the defensive side of the ball though so not sure they can come out of the west but there is value there especially if you're willing to hedge down the road.
Love the post, hate the avatar.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jelax:
Any team that shoots 44% or whatever they shoot from 3 has a chance to beat ANY team if they are hot during a 7 games series. Seeing as 4 of 5 people on the court at any given time can knock down the 3-ball so you can't necessarily cheat to help the amare/nash pick and roll or else nash is hitting the open man so it does cause tough match ups as well. They are lackluster on the defensive side of the ball though so not sure they can come out of the west but there is value there especially if you're willing to hedge down the road.
I take back what I was thinking. At +2500 the value is hella there. I just put some money on it right now during the suns jazz game. If they can play like the way they played tonight on the road, combined with how well they are at home, they are going to be tough in a 7 game series. I know anything can happen but this isn't your +2500 OKC Thunder long shot, this is a healthy Suns squad who can take down potentially the blazers and give a hell of a fight to the spurs/mavs.
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Quote Originally Posted by HandDownManDown:
I take back what I was thinking. At +2500 the value is hella there. I just put some money on it right now during the suns jazz game. If they can play like the way they played tonight on the road, combined with how well they are at home, they are going to be tough in a 7 game series. I know anything can happen but this isn't your +2500 OKC Thunder long shot, this is a healthy Suns squad who can take down potentially the blazers and give a hell of a fight to the spurs/mavs.
Any team that shoots 44% or whatever they shoot from 3 has a chance to beat ANY team if they are hot during a 7 games series. Seeing as 4 of 5 people on the court at any given time can knock down the 3-ball so you can't necessarily cheat to help the amare/nash pick and roll or else nash is hitting the open man so it does cause tough match ups as well. They are lackluster on the defensive side of the ball though so not sure they can come out of the west but there is value there especially if you're willing to hedge down the road.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jelax:
Any team that shoots 44% or whatever they shoot from 3 has a chance to beat ANY team if they are hot during a 7 games series. Seeing as 4 of 5 people on the court at any given time can knock down the 3-ball so you can't necessarily cheat to help the amare/nash pick and roll or else nash is hitting the open man so it does cause tough match ups as well. They are lackluster on the defensive side of the ball though so not sure they can come out of the west but there is value there especially if you're willing to hedge down the road.
rangerz2478 is only one thinking right here. Lets do some simple math. My book currently has suns +2300 to win west.
Assuming the suns beat a Roy-less blazers team.
Suns vs Dallas line would be at maximum -300 for dallas to win (Suns vs spurs would be even better odds). Thus risk $300 to win $100 in second round. If suns, lose, you break even, if suns win, you now have the suns +2000 vs the lakers. This line will not be greater than -600 for the lakers. Hedge $1500 on the lakers to win $250, or if the suns do beat the lakers, then you still win $500 on suns.
These are extreme odds, most likely the odds will even better than what i have quoted
This is a zero risk bet, assuming the suns beat a roy-less blazer team. But you can further protect your self from this by betting $50 for blazers to win the series against the suns (approx odds +200).
Someone double check my math please.
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rangerz2478 is only one thinking right here. Lets do some simple math. My book currently has suns +2300 to win west.
Assuming the suns beat a Roy-less blazers team.
Suns vs Dallas line would be at maximum -300 for dallas to win (Suns vs spurs would be even better odds). Thus risk $300 to win $100 in second round. If suns, lose, you break even, if suns win, you now have the suns +2000 vs the lakers. This line will not be greater than -600 for the lakers. Hedge $1500 on the lakers to win $250, or if the suns do beat the lakers, then you still win $500 on suns.
These are extreme odds, most likely the odds will even better than what i have quoted
This is a zero risk bet, assuming the suns beat a roy-less blazer team. But you can further protect your self from this by betting $50 for blazers to win the series against the suns (approx odds +200).
rangerz2478 is only one thinking right here. Lets do some simple math. My book currently has suns +2300 to win west.
Assuming the suns beat a Roy-less blazers team.
Suns vs Dallas line would be at maximum -300 for dallas to win (Suns vs spurs would be even better odds). Thus risk $300 to win $100 in second round. If suns, lose, you break even, if suns win, you now have the suns +2000 vs the lakers. This line will not be greater than -600 for the lakers. Hedge $1500 on the lakers to win $250, or if the suns do beat the lakers, then you still win $500 on suns.
These are extreme odds, most likely the odds will even better than what i have quoted
This is a zero risk bet, assuming the suns beat a roy-less blazer team. But you can further protect your self from this by betting $50 for blazers to win the series against the suns (approx odds +200).
Someone double check my math please.
I always say I am going to hedge but then when it comes that time, I never do. I may just let this one play out
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Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:
rangerz2478 is only one thinking right here. Lets do some simple math. My book currently has suns +2300 to win west.
Assuming the suns beat a Roy-less blazers team.
Suns vs Dallas line would be at maximum -300 for dallas to win (Suns vs spurs would be even better odds). Thus risk $300 to win $100 in second round. If suns, lose, you break even, if suns win, you now have the suns +2000 vs the lakers. This line will not be greater than -600 for the lakers. Hedge $1500 on the lakers to win $250, or if the suns do beat the lakers, then you still win $500 on suns.
These are extreme odds, most likely the odds will even better than what i have quoted
This is a zero risk bet, assuming the suns beat a roy-less blazer team. But you can further protect your self from this by betting $50 for blazers to win the series against the suns (approx odds +200).
Someone double check my math please.
I always say I am going to hedge but then when it comes that time, I never do. I may just let this one play out
rangerz2478 is only one thinking right here. Lets do some simple math. My book currently has suns +2300 to win west.
Assuming the suns beat a Roy-less blazers team.
Suns vs Dallas line would be at maximum -300 for dallas to win (Suns vs spurs would be even better odds). Thus risk $300 to win $100 in second round. If suns, lose, you break even, if suns win, you now have the suns +2000 vs the lakers. This line will not be greater than -600 for the lakers. Hedge $1500 on the lakers to win $250, or if the suns do beat the lakers, then you still win $500 on suns.
These are extreme odds, most likely the odds will even better than what i have quoted
This is a zero risk bet, assuming the suns beat a roy-less blazer team. But you can further protect your self from this by betting $50 for blazers to win the series against the suns (approx odds +200).
Someone double check my math please.
Thanks man but Dallas won't be -300 in the second round. Can't see them being higher then -200.
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Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:
rangerz2478 is only one thinking right here. Lets do some simple math. My book currently has suns +2300 to win west.
Assuming the suns beat a Roy-less blazers team.
Suns vs Dallas line would be at maximum -300 for dallas to win (Suns vs spurs would be even better odds). Thus risk $300 to win $100 in second round. If suns, lose, you break even, if suns win, you now have the suns +2000 vs the lakers. This line will not be greater than -600 for the lakers. Hedge $1500 on the lakers to win $250, or if the suns do beat the lakers, then you still win $500 on suns.
These are extreme odds, most likely the odds will even better than what i have quoted
This is a zero risk bet, assuming the suns beat a roy-less blazer team. But you can further protect your self from this by betting $50 for blazers to win the series against the suns (approx odds +200).
Someone double check my math please.
Thanks man but Dallas won't be -300 in the second round. Can't see them being higher then -200.
Both were the best prices out there. The only way this bet fails is if the Spurs beat BOTH the Mavs and the Suns and I just don't see that happening. Obviously if the Suns make the West finals I'm in good shape, but if the Mavs make it, I have 4 units risked to profit 16 (+400)
I don't think the Lakers odds vs the Mavs would be that high. (I'd guess it would be -250 or so depending how the Lakers play.
And who knows, maybe the Nuggets can take out the Lakers and the Mavs/Suns would have homecourt in the West finals.
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I took:
Phoenix +2500 for 2 units to win 50
AND
Dallas +900 for 2 units to win 18
Both were the best prices out there. The only way this bet fails is if the Spurs beat BOTH the Mavs and the Suns and I just don't see that happening. Obviously if the Suns make the West finals I'm in good shape, but if the Mavs make it, I have 4 units risked to profit 16 (+400)
I don't think the Lakers odds vs the Mavs would be that high. (I'd guess it would be -250 or so depending how the Lakers play.
And who knows, maybe the Nuggets can take out the Lakers and the Mavs/Suns would have homecourt in the West finals.
i assumed this was a mistake... Bookmaker has Suns at 22/1 to win the championship, not the West... there is actually a place offering 25/1 to win the West?
that is shocking!
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i assumed this was a mistake... Bookmaker has Suns at 22/1 to win the championship, not the West... there is actually a place offering 25/1 to win the West?
i assumed this was a mistake... Bookmaker has Suns at 22/1 to win the championship, not the West... there is actually a place offering 25/1 to win the West?
that is shocking!
bookmaker has the worst odds across the board for all futures.
odds for suns to win west at the moment:
bookmaker +850
Betus +1400
Blowdog +1400
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Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:
i assumed this was a mistake... Bookmaker has Suns at 22/1 to win the championship, not the West... there is actually a place offering 25/1 to win the West?
that is shocking!
bookmaker has the worst odds across the board for all futures.
i assumed this was a mistake... Bookmaker has Suns at 22/1 to win the championship, not the West... there is actually a place offering 25/1 to win the West?
that is shocking!
Nope, sportsbook had it +2500 as recent as late last night.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:
i assumed this was a mistake... Bookmaker has Suns at 22/1 to win the championship, not the West... there is actually a place offering 25/1 to win the West?
that is shocking!
Nope, sportsbook had it +2500 as recent as late last night.
The Suns have no shot at winning the west. I'll give you 50 to 1 odds...seriously.
i agree, the suns have NO chance. I really like the suns team but im a realist, their best chances were a couple years ago when they had Nash/Amare/Marion
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Quote Originally Posted by Mac-stradamus:
The Suns have no shot at winning the west. I'll give you 50 to 1 odds...seriously.
i agree, the suns have NO chance. I really like the suns team but im a realist, their best chances were a couple years ago when they had Nash/Amare/Marion
i agree, the suns have NO chance. I really like the suns team but im a realist, their best chances were a couple years ago when they had Nash/Amare/Marion
you guys don't read very well.... 25 to 1 is a good line because it provide excellent hedging value in a later series, essentially, you are setting yourself up to get a risk free bet on team that will win the west, ie the Lakers or Mavs, .. if someone wants to offer me 50 to 1 for suns to win the west, I will lay a dime on that anyday....
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Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
i agree, the suns have NO chance. I really like the suns team but im a realist, their best chances were a couple years ago when they had Nash/Amare/Marion
you guys don't read very well.... 25 to 1 is a good line because it provide excellent hedging value in a later series, essentially, you are setting yourself up to get a risk free bet on team that will win the west, ie the Lakers or Mavs, .. if someone wants to offer me 50 to 1 for suns to win the west, I will lay a dime on that anyday....
i agree, the suns have NO chance. I really like the suns team but im a realist, their best chances were a couple years ago when they had Nash/Amare/Marion
Regardless if you think they have a shot or not, if you WOULDN'T take +2500 on them to win the west, you simply don't understand math and hedging.
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Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
i agree, the suns have NO chance. I really like the suns team but im a realist, their best chances were a couple years ago when they had Nash/Amare/Marion
Regardless if you think they have a shot or not, if you WOULDN'T take +2500 on them to win the west, you simply don't understand math and hedging.
Regardless if you think they have a shot or not, if you WOULDN'T take +2500 on them to win the west, you simply don't understand math and hedging.
Of course it matters if i think they have a shot or not... the question i thought was if basicallly, is betting the suns at 25-1 a good bet to win the west, i say no, i think it should be more like 35-1. their style is not a winning one to wi nthe west, the playoffs are a grind and half court offenses win, plus having dependable big men and size matters huge in the playoffs and a little thing called DEFENSE which the suns have none of.
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Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
Regardless if you think they have a shot or not, if you WOULDN'T take +2500 on them to win the west, you simply don't understand math and hedging.
Of course it matters if i think they have a shot or not... the question i thought was if basicallly, is betting the suns at 25-1 a good bet to win the west, i say no, i think it should be more like 35-1. their style is not a winning one to wi nthe west, the playoffs are a grind and half court offenses win, plus having dependable big men and size matters huge in the playoffs and a little thing called DEFENSE which the suns have none of.
if the suns win, i will for sure come back on this site and totally admit i was way off... i would love to see the lakers lose at any point in the playoffs.
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if the suns win, i will for sure come back on this site and totally admit i was way off... i would love to see the lakers lose at any point in the playoffs.
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