NFL Season Final Record: +49.0 units NFL Playoffs Record: +11.0 units
I know this isn't the sexy thing to say because everyone is excited for these two games because of their significance, but I see both games as being very close. I think if both were played 100 times, we might be able to find a 55/45 edge described below, but these are very even matchups with risk factors (Mahomes injury) that are difficult to objectively quantify.
I will fight the urge to give WWE or Skip Bayless type of hyperbolic write ups in favor of realistic expectations. These are not games I will have very much money on. I realize that the gravity of these two games will likely have most sports gamblers betting way too much and frothing at the mouth - but that is not the way I roll. I cant make big value where there is little. Just plain facts.
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9
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
NFL Season Final Record: +49.0 units NFL Playoffs Record: +11.0 units
I know this isn't the sexy thing to say because everyone is excited for these two games because of their significance, but I see both games as being very close. I think if both were played 100 times, we might be able to find a 55/45 edge described below, but these are very even matchups with risk factors (Mahomes injury) that are difficult to objectively quantify.
I will fight the urge to give WWE or Skip Bayless type of hyperbolic write ups in favor of realistic expectations. These are not games I will have very much money on. I realize that the gravity of these two games will likely have most sports gamblers betting way too much and frothing at the mouth - but that is not the way I roll. I cant make big value where there is little. Just plain facts.
This is a rematch of last years AFC Championship game where the Bengals won in KC in OT 27-24. The Chiefs were favored. But the key element that allowed the Bengals D to hold down the Chiefs is that they very often rushed 3, and dropped a spy on Mahomes. That meant that there were 3.5 guys rushing, and 7.5 in coverage. At the time, it was bizarre to watch - almost goes against conventional wisdom - but as it turned out Mahomes wasn't able to be effective - only passing for 59 yards and had 2 sacks.
With Mahomes injury - he probably is going to be less mobile - which might mean an amped up pressure scheme by the Bengals - but I am not so sure. Remember - the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill and all that he brings - which is on drop backs of more than 3 seconds being able to get open downfield. If the Bengals are dropping 8, and Mahomes cant scramble, that puts enormous pressure on the receiving to find space in a very crowded secondary. I expect the Chiefs to have a lot of behind the line of scrimmage throws, and first read hot routes. If the Bengals can get to Mahomes with 4, especially with 3, I think they will be very successful at holding the Chiefs down. Nobody completely stops that offense - but if you get them to punt 3 or 4 times a game - youve got the formula.
I don't see the Chiefs having much success on the ground - but I do think they will consistently be run first. If they are able to keep on schedule in the run game, it will be a long day for the Bengals D. But I dont put much faith in the Chiefs winning with a run first offense - it just isnt them - and hard to imagine that they would be successful - but Andy Reid is a playcalling genius so....
On the other side - I am done underestimating Joe Burrow. I think he is the top QB in the NFL - and I am not sure it is really close. It is amazing how quickly he goes through progressions - he is on read 3 faster than anyone maybe in the history of the NFL. He does everything else right also. So you have an amazing pass rush and are going to get to him? Doesnt matter. He defies all known logic - but I am starting to accept that. Sack him 6 times? Wont matter.
The Chiefs are 5th in the NFL in pressure rate - but as described above - I am not really sure that means anything against the Bengals. They are without 3 linemen - not sure that matters. What matters is coverage - and this happens to be the Chiefs weak spot on defense. The running game of the Bengals should be serviceable - and set up the passing game which should be very effective.
The Mahomes injury.... I see all the time here on Covers that people try to speculate on the meaning or gravity of how the injury will affect his play. Will he be able to XXXX? That is the wrong approach IMO. Just empty speculation that nobody can know. What it does add is RISK and VARIANCE. That comes in to staking, not in to side picking.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
7
AFC Championship Chiefs / Bengals
This is a rematch of last years AFC Championship game where the Bengals won in KC in OT 27-24. The Chiefs were favored. But the key element that allowed the Bengals D to hold down the Chiefs is that they very often rushed 3, and dropped a spy on Mahomes. That meant that there were 3.5 guys rushing, and 7.5 in coverage. At the time, it was bizarre to watch - almost goes against conventional wisdom - but as it turned out Mahomes wasn't able to be effective - only passing for 59 yards and had 2 sacks.
With Mahomes injury - he probably is going to be less mobile - which might mean an amped up pressure scheme by the Bengals - but I am not so sure. Remember - the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill and all that he brings - which is on drop backs of more than 3 seconds being able to get open downfield. If the Bengals are dropping 8, and Mahomes cant scramble, that puts enormous pressure on the receiving to find space in a very crowded secondary. I expect the Chiefs to have a lot of behind the line of scrimmage throws, and first read hot routes. If the Bengals can get to Mahomes with 4, especially with 3, I think they will be very successful at holding the Chiefs down. Nobody completely stops that offense - but if you get them to punt 3 or 4 times a game - youve got the formula.
I don't see the Chiefs having much success on the ground - but I do think they will consistently be run first. If they are able to keep on schedule in the run game, it will be a long day for the Bengals D. But I dont put much faith in the Chiefs winning with a run first offense - it just isnt them - and hard to imagine that they would be successful - but Andy Reid is a playcalling genius so....
On the other side - I am done underestimating Joe Burrow. I think he is the top QB in the NFL - and I am not sure it is really close. It is amazing how quickly he goes through progressions - he is on read 3 faster than anyone maybe in the history of the NFL. He does everything else right also. So you have an amazing pass rush and are going to get to him? Doesnt matter. He defies all known logic - but I am starting to accept that. Sack him 6 times? Wont matter.
The Chiefs are 5th in the NFL in pressure rate - but as described above - I am not really sure that means anything against the Bengals. They are without 3 linemen - not sure that matters. What matters is coverage - and this happens to be the Chiefs weak spot on defense. The running game of the Bengals should be serviceable - and set up the passing game which should be very effective.
The Mahomes injury.... I see all the time here on Covers that people try to speculate on the meaning or gravity of how the injury will affect his play. Will he be able to XXXX? That is the wrong approach IMO. Just empty speculation that nobody can know. What it does add is RISK and VARIANCE. That comes in to staking, not in to side picking.
Last week I predicted the Cowboys / Niners final as 21-14 Cowboys. That was met with a lot of people here calling me crazy, assinine etc - because they said it was "impossible" that the high flying Niners offense would be held to that. Turns out - it was pretty close - and really only went over because of the defense and turnovers. But the point is.... They are facing a very similar defense this week in terms of scheme and style and talent - but on the road - and I am not sure I expect anything different to happen this week than last.
Purdy is going to be pressured - the Eagles are second in the NFL (to the Cowboys) in pressure rate - and you can bet your bottom dollar they are going to send as many as it takes to get to Purdy and force him to make quick decisions. The Cowboys had no turnovers last week - but had good chances at a couple - but Purdy did his usual roll to the opposite side throw across his body stuff that is going to cost him at some point.
The danger zone for the Eagles is stopping the run. They are 14th in the NFL (adjusted) in the trailing 8 weeks against the run. I expect the Niners to come out run first, run second... Run until you stop us. And I am just not convinced that the Eagles can stop the run. If the Niners can pop 5 yards when they want - which my sims point to them averaging 5.2 yards a rush on 1st down - then the chunk plays will come and Purdy can finish the day with like 15 pass attempts.
The Niners weakness on D is their mid to deep level coverage - but the Eagles prefer a passing attack of relying on YAC - where they are towards the top of NFL in their YAC stats. I have a hard time thinking that Hurts is going to be successful as a drop back passer against the Niners - who will be on him quickly - as the Eagles are in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in pressure % against.
The Eagles should - like the Niners - come out as rush first - but unlike the Niners I just don't see the Eagles staying on schedule and being successful. The Niners D is towards the top of the NFL in negative yardage plays allowed against the run.
Tight, low scoring game where both teams run the ball first.
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10
NFC Championship Eagles / 49ers
Last week I predicted the Cowboys / Niners final as 21-14 Cowboys. That was met with a lot of people here calling me crazy, assinine etc - because they said it was "impossible" that the high flying Niners offense would be held to that. Turns out - it was pretty close - and really only went over because of the defense and turnovers. But the point is.... They are facing a very similar defense this week in terms of scheme and style and talent - but on the road - and I am not sure I expect anything different to happen this week than last.
Purdy is going to be pressured - the Eagles are second in the NFL (to the Cowboys) in pressure rate - and you can bet your bottom dollar they are going to send as many as it takes to get to Purdy and force him to make quick decisions. The Cowboys had no turnovers last week - but had good chances at a couple - but Purdy did his usual roll to the opposite side throw across his body stuff that is going to cost him at some point.
The danger zone for the Eagles is stopping the run. They are 14th in the NFL (adjusted) in the trailing 8 weeks against the run. I expect the Niners to come out run first, run second... Run until you stop us. And I am just not convinced that the Eagles can stop the run. If the Niners can pop 5 yards when they want - which my sims point to them averaging 5.2 yards a rush on 1st down - then the chunk plays will come and Purdy can finish the day with like 15 pass attempts.
The Niners weakness on D is their mid to deep level coverage - but the Eagles prefer a passing attack of relying on YAC - where they are towards the top of NFL in their YAC stats. I have a hard time thinking that Hurts is going to be successful as a drop back passer against the Niners - who will be on him quickly - as the Eagles are in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in pressure % against.
The Eagles should - like the Niners - come out as rush first - but unlike the Niners I just don't see the Eagles staying on schedule and being successful. The Niners D is towards the top of the NFL in negative yardage plays allowed against the run.
Tight, low scoring game where both teams run the ball first.
Last week you were on the Cowboys against the Niners because you liked them to force Purdy into a few turnovers. But this week you’re going with the Niners (who now face a better defense than the Cowboys with a historically great pass rush) because they can run the ball? What happens if Philly just stacks the box on the early downs to take away the run, and forces SF to pass like they did to pretty much every opponent they faced this season?
Also, your analysis includes nothing about Hurts scrambling ability, which seems like a pretty big oversight, as that could easily be the biggest X factor in the game.
Who do you want on 3rd and 8 dropping back to pass? Brock Purdy or Hurts?
But I agree, if the 9ers gain 5 yards+ on nearly every run on the early downs, they should ease their way to a victory.
But that’s a fairly big if.
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@vanzack
Last week you were on the Cowboys against the Niners because you liked them to force Purdy into a few turnovers. But this week you’re going with the Niners (who now face a better defense than the Cowboys with a historically great pass rush) because they can run the ball? What happens if Philly just stacks the box on the early downs to take away the run, and forces SF to pass like they did to pretty much every opponent they faced this season?
Also, your analysis includes nothing about Hurts scrambling ability, which seems like a pretty big oversight, as that could easily be the biggest X factor in the game.
Who do you want on 3rd and 8 dropping back to pass? Brock Purdy or Hurts?
But I agree, if the 9ers gain 5 yards+ on nearly every run on the early downs, they should ease their way to a victory.
Similar thoughts as far as risk and exposure...tough betting into 2-game slate the book can hyper-focus on, especially with these tight spreads
Was interesting to see how efficient these 4 teams are on 3rd down and how that relates to winning. Whoever wins the 3rd down battle has a huge edge
Similar cap on cin/kc...another 1 possession game
Sf/phi I got as a toss up....can Purdy keep going, eagles should get pressure and force him into a mistake...but can they capitalize when/if he does make a mistake? Agree 49ers should go run heavy.
Think hurts will take some chances down the field. He usually tries 2-3 shots down the field a game to brown or smith and as you say that is where 9ers are weakest. If we see this hopefully eagles staff does and dials up a few calls
Thinking turnovers and 3rd down performance will play a huge factor
Gl sunday
0
Similar thoughts as far as risk and exposure...tough betting into 2-game slate the book can hyper-focus on, especially with these tight spreads
Was interesting to see how efficient these 4 teams are on 3rd down and how that relates to winning. Whoever wins the 3rd down battle has a huge edge
Similar cap on cin/kc...another 1 possession game
Sf/phi I got as a toss up....can Purdy keep going, eagles should get pressure and force him into a mistake...but can they capitalize when/if he does make a mistake? Agree 49ers should go run heavy.
Think hurts will take some chances down the field. He usually tries 2-3 shots down the field a game to brown or smith and as you say that is where 9ers are weakest. If we see this hopefully eagles staff does and dials up a few calls
Thinking turnovers and 3rd down performance will play a huge factor
u think burroo is better than horsefacegadget feker...
good write up bro...but that oline..aaassdffg..dummo..its a fify fifty futures are down already few small singles..ingame momentum swings etc etc betting...
Sweet home ALABAMA
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@vanzack
u think burroo is better than horsefacegadget feker...
good write up bro...but that oline..aaassdffg..dummo..its a fify fifty futures are down already few small singles..ingame momentum swings etc etc betting...
I will fight the urge to give WWE or Skip Bayless type of hyperbolic write ups in favor of realistic expectations. These are not games I will have very much money on. I realize that the gravity of these two games will likely have most sports gamblers betting way too much and frothing at the mouth - but that is not the way I roll. I cant make big value where there is little. Just plain facts.
Van
this is pure covers gold and I hope the kids take your advice
havnt even read who you are taking but this is exactly how i feel
the 4 best teams are here and anyone could win
small leans to Bengals and Eagles for me- but concerned because those 2 both looked more impressive
in their wins last week and there could be some recency bias per se
if these games were on neutral fields
almost feel like both games would be at a pick em
best of luck!
0
@vanzack
I will fight the urge to give WWE or Skip Bayless type of hyperbolic write ups in favor of realistic expectations. These are not games I will have very much money on. I realize that the gravity of these two games will likely have most sports gamblers betting way too much and frothing at the mouth - but that is not the way I roll. I cant make big value where there is little. Just plain facts.
Van
this is pure covers gold and I hope the kids take your advice
havnt even read who you are taking but this is exactly how i feel
the 4 best teams are here and anyone could win
small leans to Bengals and Eagles for me- but concerned because those 2 both looked more impressive
in their wins last week and there could be some recency bias per se
Smart man, these aren't 2 games to spend the mortgage on. But some people will.
Here's a little something I found interesting, as the perception of all 4 teams runs offense is probably different from the #'s.
Top run offenses(weighted) including the playoffs:
Eagles #1 at 17.1%
Bengals #2 at 9.9%
Chiefs #10 at 2.1%
49ers #13 at -0.2%
I'm rooting for the Eagles and Bengals because of how my futures are laying. A KC win wouldn't hurt me. I got none on the Niners. I will not play any side this weekend, it'd be pointless for me.
Best of Luck
0
Smart man, these aren't 2 games to spend the mortgage on. But some people will.
Here's a little something I found interesting, as the perception of all 4 teams runs offense is probably different from the #'s.
Top run offenses(weighted) including the playoffs:
Eagles #1 at 17.1%
Bengals #2 at 9.9%
Chiefs #10 at 2.1%
49ers #13 at -0.2%
I'm rooting for the Eagles and Bengals because of how my futures are laying. A KC win wouldn't hurt me. I got none on the Niners. I will not play any side this weekend, it'd be pointless for me.
Are you at all concerned that the Bengals are still banged up on Oline.. The chiefs rank pretty high in sacks and pressures quarterback hits.. Chris Jones is really good and he does tend to get doubled but I think they’re going to have trouble this time around.. all the wins have been by 3 points.. my rule of thumb as far as playoffs go I have always felt strong about Olines being healthy.. this could become an issue.. the attention is strictly on the quarterbacks.. just feel like of any matchups especially this one when both teams are healthy the Bengals have won by 3 and one of those games was a Travis kelce fumble late.. That bills game is definitely not a great game to base the bengals performance overall especially since the previous week they won by Luck against the Ravens..
Good Luck Van
much respect for your analysis throughout the season great Job this year
Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
0
@vanzack
Are you at all concerned that the Bengals are still banged up on Oline.. The chiefs rank pretty high in sacks and pressures quarterback hits.. Chris Jones is really good and he does tend to get doubled but I think they’re going to have trouble this time around.. all the wins have been by 3 points.. my rule of thumb as far as playoffs go I have always felt strong about Olines being healthy.. this could become an issue.. the attention is strictly on the quarterbacks.. just feel like of any matchups especially this one when both teams are healthy the Bengals have won by 3 and one of those games was a Travis kelce fumble late.. That bills game is definitely not a great game to base the bengals performance overall especially since the previous week they won by Luck against the Ravens..
Good Luck Van
much respect for your analysis throughout the season great Job this year
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so glad you’re on 9ers
Best of luck on Cincinnati Van
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