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Hilton Supercontest Anyone?

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Posted: #226
Good luck van 

Will you have a World Cup thread this summer?
 
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Posted: #227

The 7-point Hilton spreads may really help you on the Falcons and Texans but do ties ATS count as wins, or just ties in your record?

I think your best pick based on trends and current form is Bengals -6. Let's hope the folks ahead of you in the contest self-destruct and pick all duds (like maybe the Browns, the Redskins, and the Raiders).

 
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Posted: #228
Quote Originally Posted by daysbtwin:

Good luck van 

Will you have a World Cup thread this summer?

Yes.

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Posted: #229
Quote Originally Posted by DarthHambly:

The 7-point Hilton spreads may really help you on the Falcons and Texans but do ties ATS count as wins, or just ties in your record?

I think your best pick based on trends and current form is Bengals -6. Let's hope the folks ahead of you in the contest self-destruct and pick all duds (like maybe the Browns, the Redskins, and the Raiders).


A push equals .5 points.  A win is 1 point, and a loss is 0 points.

So pushes are important - in fact - in the position I am currently in - 1 single push is equal to 30K....

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Posted: #230
After the picks are posted on the website at about 3pm EST tomorrow - I will crunch them and post some consensus info like last week.
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Posted: #231
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


51-29 would put you in tied for 6th.  I currently have 49.5 and am tied for 12th.

I am against you on AZ, and not on any of your other games.

GL this week.


Good luck to you also.  Hope you improve in the money/standings this week.  I always hate the last week of the regular season.
 
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Posted: #232
Btw, since you told me that I'm would be tied for 6th just made me sick to my stomach lol.  Since I saw the payout, I now wish I never asked lol.
 
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Posted: #233
gl this week van
 
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Posted: #234
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


You are very hot.  I am also on the Texans.

My games (QPRHoops in the contest)....

Falcons +7
Texans -7  ( +7 right? )
Bengals -6
49ers -1
Seahawks -10.5

Not comfortable at all laying so much chalk.  I had a very hard time this week - had SF and ATL right away, Cincy was a numbers play - and the seahawks and bengals came after much agony.

GL all this week - hopefully it is a 4 or 5 win week for me and I can move up a little in the standings....



like the card. GL


 
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Posted: #235
texans down to a local mailman at running back
 
Prospect
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Posted: #236
Van could you by chance post the top players consensus picks again this week?
 
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Posted: #237
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


You are very hot.  I am also on the Texans.

My games (QPRHoops in the contest)....

Falcons +7
Texans -7
Bengals -6
49ers -1
Seahawks -10.5

Not comfortable at all laying so much chalk.  I had a very hard time this week - had SF and ATL right away, Cincy was a numbers play - and the seahawks and bengals came after much agony.

GL all this week - hopefully it is a 4 or 5 win week for me and I can move up a little in the standings....


That should say TITANS -7.

Im an idiot.  I just mistyped it.  I have Tennessee, not Houston.

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Posted: #238
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

texans down to a local mailman at running back

I have the Titans.  I have no idea why I typed Texans - I have Tennessee -7.

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Legend
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Posted: #239
Quote Originally Posted by cdog112:

Van could you by chance post the top players consensus picks again this week?

Will do it around 4pm EST today when they come out and I have a chance to crunch the numbers.

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Posted: #240
My games (QPRHoops in the contest)....

Falcons +7
TITANS -7
Bengals -6
49ers -1
Seahawks -10.5

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Posted: #241
Dislike the Niners. Arizona is the better team. Good luck in the contest. 
 
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Posted: #242
Quote Originally Posted by T-One:

Dislike the Niners. Arizona is the better team. Good luck in the contest. 

The issue with Arizona is simple.  Carson Palmer is a turnover machine.  He has 21 interceptions and 6 fumbles in 15 games - thats almost 2 per game!

He particularly has problems against aggressive defenses that can put pressure on him.  Earlier in the season he had 2 ints vs SF.  He is the 22nd ranked QBR in the league at 49.9.

AZ has issues running the ball against the better defenses - while SF is 2nd overall in the league in overall rushing stats (only behind the eagles).  So when AZ cant run on SF, and Palmer is predictably going to be throwing - I will take my chances on him turning it over and not being effective.

In a game that should be low scoring - defensively dominated - I will take the guy who doesnt turn it over (Kaepernick 8 ints) and a team that can pound the run on almost anyone against a turnover prone team that has issues running the ball.

I guess I dont think that "Arizona is the better team".
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Posted: #243
It's a strength vs strength in the game plans, because Arizona has the NFL's top rush defense while San Fran is 3rd in the league in rushing stats. Palmer has done much better of limiting his mistakes during this win streak, his stats are different as night and day when you compare between the first and second half of the season. In this divisional battle I will take my chance with the home team.
 
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Posted: #244
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


The issue with Arizona is simple.  Carson Palmer is a turnover machine.  He has 21 interceptions and 6 fumbles in 15 games - thats almost 2 per game!

He particularly has problems against aggressive defenses that can put pressure on him.  Earlier in the season he had 2 ints vs SF.  He is the 22nd ranked QBR in the league at 49.9.

AZ has issues running the ball against the better defenses - while SF is 2nd overall in the league in overall rushing stats (only behind the eagles).  So when AZ cant run on SF, and Palmer is predictably going to be throwing - I will take my chances on him turning it over and not being effective.

In a game that should be low scoring - defensively dominated - I will take the guy who doesnt turn it over (Kaepernick 8 ints) and a team that can pound the run on almost anyone against a turnover prone team that has issues running the ball.

I guess I dont think that "Arizona is the better team".

Palmer always has had trouble scrambling, Kaep not so much.  Palmer is definitely better this 2nd half of the season, such as expected though since his competition has gotten weaker.  SF is definitely the better all around team.  Good luck this week vanzack.  
 
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Posted: #245
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


I have the Titans.  I have no idea why I typed Texans - I have Tennessee -7.



well, thank god for small favors.  was already down large on titans and about crapped my pants.
 
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Posted: #246

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:



well, thank god for small favors.  was already down large on titans and about crapped my pants.

Ever have a mental block about a random thing that you cant get rid of?

Mine is the titans / Texans.  I always mix the names up - and so I always use Tennessee and Houston instead.  But this contest makes me make picks by the nicknames - so I darn it up continuously.  Of course when I think about it I get it right - but in casual conversation I always darn it up.

 

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Posted: #247
Picks are up....

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Legend
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Posted: #248
Crunching the numbers....
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Posted: #249
1 EBN OZN .           53.5 GB DAL TB ARI KC
2 DAVID FROHARDT LANE # 2 53 GB PIT BAL NE SEA
3 4 RICKY .           51.5 PIT WAS PHI NO SD
4 RYAN HOJO .         51.5 GB NYJ BUF TB OAK
5 BIG LIB .           51.5 GB PHI NO ARI SEA
6 ALL YOU CAN EAT.     51 ATL GB PIT MIN SD
7 R2K2 .               50.5 TEN PIT JAX DET TB
8 NFL TRENDS .         50 PIT NYG CIN PHI SF
9 BOSCO 78 .           50 GB PIT CIN DEN SEA
10 JARHEAD .           50 GB NYG CIN NE STL


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Posted: #250
11 BUGGIE BASKETBALL.   50 GB PIT MIA DET ARI
12 SINATRA DRIVE .     49.5 GB WAS DAL NYJ ARI
13 QPRHOOPS .           49.5 ATL TEN CIN SF SEA
14 BITTER BOB .         49.5 GB CIN NO DEN SEA
15 FABFIOS .           49.5 ATL PIT JAX MIA SEA
16 INDEED! .           49.5 CIN DAL TB ARI KC
17 INDY BOYS .         49 ATL GB JAX DAL BUF
18 SHARP SQUAD .       48.5 WAS BAL DAL MIN SEA
19 MATTY ICE .         48.5 ATL GB NYG DAL SD
20 MARKED .             48.5 ATL GB JAX DET OAK
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