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Hilton Supercontest Anyone?

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Posted: #126
$1,500 to $31K? Not a bad ROR at all! Stay there or move up. The payouts drop off a cliff after that. Pick wisely (like you haven't been at 60%+...).

This contest will be like the World Series of Poker in terms of entry totals with a million dollar first prize soon.

Look for the field to almost double next year as well. This contest has gotten so much press in recent years and $1,500 really isn't a lot of money to ask from a casual bettor.
 
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Posted: #127
Mr. QPRHOOPS seems to have slipped far at the Hilton.
 
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Posted: #128

Quote Originally Posted by rudy22:

Mr. QPRHOOPS seems to have slipped far at the Hilton.

Tied for 11th.  Highest position I have been in all season.

Slipped in relation to the leader yes - he went 5-0 this week so everyone slipped in relation to him.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #129
Good Luck the final 2 weeks.Yes, this pool is real hard. It is impossible to find 5 games a week . Most I can come up with is one, maybe two .Some weeks I do not like any games. I get off to a terrible start ,now I am at 50% for the season which is not good.  Feel it's better value than the WSOP. Was in Vegas in Aug to bet football futures, and we said why not try this pool ,as it's a reasonable entry fee. My son lives in Vegas ,so he can submit  the picks for me every week. I believe the more entries in the pool, luck becomes a  big factor. I would definitely enter the pool again next season.
 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Tied for 11th.  Highest position I have been in all season.

Slipped in relation to the leader yes - he went 5-0 this week so everyone slipped in relation to him.

Mansack congrads on the contest, i have a cousin that lives in Vegas, im deff in next year...
1) Do you know you your taking this week
2) Would you mind posting the pics of the top 3 guys in here..
3) Do all picks come from you, or do you listen to others?
 
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Posted: #131
I'm sure they are his own, but definitely looks at all angles regarding capping etc....Right Van?....As far as the top 3 picks, I've seen them all take dives during the season...So there never was or will be a guarantee!....That's gambling for ya!....Number 1 to 3 may "garbage the bed" this week....eh?....Good luck Van!!!!....Hope you hit the top 10!!!!!!!!!....
 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by 1pumpchump:

Mansack congrads on the contest, i have a cousin that lives in Vegas, im deff in next year...
1) Do you know you your taking this week
2) Would you mind posting the pics of the top 3 guys in here..
3) Do all picks come from you, or do you listen to others?

You can see every entrants weekly selections here.

 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:


You can see every entrants weekly selections here.

I know, just thought it would be fun to put them here, and root Mansack on.....maybe he will, i love this thread, and like when Mansack posts in gereral...
 
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Posted: #134
Agreed. Logic is at a premium here. Vanzack has historical proof and logic
 
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Posted: #135
again why is everyone high fiving ?

arent we supposed to fade the top picks?
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by intel-1:

again why is everyone high fiving ?

arent we supposed to fade the top picks?

Please forgive them for being happy for another bettors success.  I know it's unheard of around here, but you should try it sometime. 

I think what you're referring to is the top consensus picks, which were hitting at an alarming rate.  I doubt that fade will continue to be as successfully in these later weeks since most of the unsuccessful entrants have dropped out and stopped making selections. To me it doesn't make sense to fade the guys at the top of the leaderboard.
 
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Posted: #137
I would be very happy guy, just get to be top 20th.....Good Luck ! Bro VAN!
 
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Posted: #138

Quote Originally Posted by damonte:

Van, I know you want to get into the money, but after this week your record should be 44-28 for a winning % of 61.1 . That's something to be extremely proud of.  Not my intention to be nosy but are you a veteran of this contest? If so, how do you account for the fact that the current leader has a winning % of .676 , and when the acclaimed Fizzek won his back-to-back titles his winning % was only in the 54% range for both seasons? That represents a huge difference which puzzles me and maybe you can provide an answer.

Nothing to be puzzled about. Go to the site and you'll see Fezzik was in the 65-66% range just like pretty much all the other winners, no matter how many people entered. 20th place has always been around 60-61%.  54% has never come close to winning anything in this contest.

 
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Posted: #139

If Carolina didn't go for it on 4th and 2 in the 3rd Quarter and just kicked a field goal, I'd be tied with you in 11th. Instead I'm one point behind you and sweating bullets in 26th.  To start 7-8 and slowly work my way back to the money and going 17-7-1 the last 5 weeks; and not make it would really suck.  I think I need to finish 7-3. I'm not very interested in going 6-4 and being tied for 29th place with 10 other people and splitting 9,000 with them.

The guy in 1st place has been going 4-1 or better for like 3-4 weeks in a row now I think, so I don't see him crumbling down the stretch like everyone else has once they get into 1st place.

GL this week.

 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by mitchgee:

Good Luck the final 2 weeks.Yes, this pool is real hard. It is impossible to find 5 games a week . Most I can come up with is one, maybe two .Some weeks I do not like any games. I get off to a terrible start ,now I am at 50% for the season which is not good.  Feel it's better value than the WSOP. Was in Vegas in Aug to bet football futures, and we said why not try this pool ,as it's a reasonable entry fee. My son lives in Vegas ,so he can submit  the picks for me every week. I believe the more entries in the pool, luck becomes a  big factor. I would definitely enter the pool again next season.

Thanks.  I agree - it is a fun way for even a casual bettor to go through a whole season for 1500 bucks and have a chance to win some serious money.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by 1pumpchump:

Mansack congrads on the contest, i have a cousin that lives in Vegas, im deff in next year...
1) Do you know you your taking this week
2) Would you mind posting the pics of the top 3 guys in here..
3) Do all picks come from you, or do you listen to others?

I used a "proxy" to enter my picks.  It was 300 bucks, and he has been flawless.  let me know if you or anyone else needs a referral.

1.  I dont know yet - but will post them here like I have the last few weeks.
2.  I can post their picks here - but you can see all picks at the site too.
3.  All picks come from me.  Who would I be listening to?  the covers consensus?  I have never been a fan of listening to other people when it comes to picks.  Logic behind picks?  I will drink that up - but I have to listen to my own logic and systems.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by inthetank:

I'm sure they are his own, but definitely looks at all angles regarding capping etc....Right Van?....As far as the top 3 picks, I've seen them all take dives during the season...So there never was or will be a guarantee!....That's gambling for ya!....Number 1 to 3 may "garbage the bed" this week....eh?....Good luck Van!!!!....Hope you hit the top 10!!!!!!!!!....
Thanks!

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by intel-1:

again why is everyone high fiving ?

arent we supposed to fade the top picks?

Supposed to?  Huh?

There are 1050 people in the contest.  I think I have seen that if you faded the consensus of EVERYONE in the contest - you would do well (at least in the early weeks).  But I have been saying it over and ovver -- the top 100 have been doing very well.  So if you are looking for an ultra-simplified betting strategy where you dont have to work for more than 3 minutes - I guess you should fade the consensus.  If you are interested in digging deeper in to the numbers - you might find some other types of angles.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:


Please forgive them for being happy for another bettors success.  I know it's unheard of around here, but you should try it sometime. 

I think what you're referring to is the top consensus picks, which were hitting at an alarming rate.  I doubt that fade will continue to be as successfully in these later weeks since most of the unsuccessful entrants have dropped out and stopped making selections. To me it doesn't make sense to fade the guys at the top of the leaderboard.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by WinsNow999:

I would be very happy guy, just get to be top 20th.....Good Luck ! Bro VAN!

At the beginning - I would have been very happy with 20th.  That changes when you are at 11th with 10 picks left...  

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by bogart45:

If Carolina didn't go for it on 4th and 2 in the 3rd Quarter and just kicked a field goal, I'd be tied with you in 11th. Instead I'm one point behind you and sweating bullets in 26th.  To start 7-8 and slowly work my way back to the money and going 17-7-1 the last 5 weeks; and not make it would really suck.  I think I need to finish 7-3. I'm not very interested in going 6-4 and being tied for 29th place with 10 other people and splitting 9,000 with them.

The guy in 1st place has been going 4-1 or better for like 3-4 weeks in a row now I think, so I don't see him crumbling down the stretch like everyone else has once they get into 1st place.

GL this week.


I understand what you are saying - but you should be very happy with that season so far.  You are in a position where if you get lucky and put up 8 or 9 wins you should finish in the top 10.

Your carolina game - everyone has those.  I went back and calculated that I am 11-6 in games that I would consider IN RETROSPECT a total coinflip.  A missed FG at the end to cover, a 2 point conversion, a horrible loss or incredible win.  It is a lot like playing blackjack.  Everyone says that if you look back at the amount of BJ's you get, and your record on doubles and splits - that will deterine whether you win or lose.

I think that if you can honestly look back on the season - you must have a winning record in these games.  In the NFL - there isnt many total points between having a 60% record and a 40% record.....

What is your name in the contest?

GL the rest of the way.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #147
The key decision for me this week....

Do I go ahead and pick my 5 games as normal OR....

Do I think about what will be unpopular sides in unpopular games and only pick these types of teams knowing that they wont be my top 5 but take a chance because it is my best strategic chance of placing high.  I could crash and burn, but if I go 8 or 9 out of the last 10 with this strategy - I would have a better chance of placing higher.

Any thoughts?

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #148

Im only 3 points behind the leader and sweating bullets these last 2 weeks.... Good luck!!

 

And I think the leader is going to stumble these last 2 weeks. If you do some research on his name (yes he is using his real name as his handle) you can see he enters different contests yearly, and has stumbled the last 2 weeks in the ocntests.

 

So the time to strike is now, and good luck on your plays this week

 
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Posted: #149
Quote Originally Posted by nfltrends11:

Im only 3 points behind the leader and sweating bullets these last 2 weeks.... Good luck!!

 

And I think the leader is going to stumble these last 2 weeks. If you do some research on his name (yes he is using his real name as his handle) you can see he enters different contests yearly, and has stumbled the last 2 weeks in the ocntests.

 

So the time to strike is now, and good luck on your plays this week


Awesome.  Tied for 6th - you have a real shot.

GL the rest of the way.

Covers is really representing at the top!

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #150
Good Luck  the last 2 weeks to everybody on covers.  I  am trying for the $15,000 mini contest which is a very nice prize. I figure I going to need 14 points for the 3 weeks(got 5 last week). This week there are 8 games with spreads 7 and over, that is a lot. I am looking to take teams that are playing well right now, not  the lions, chargers are hard to figure, even though raiders are terrible. Might be the 49ers last game at Candlestick ,believe they will blow  out Falcons. I  also like the Panthers, playing much better than  Saints. I keep reminding myself Saints lost to Jets on road. .Also leaning towards Broncos giving 10.5 .I am a big Colts fan, think  the line is a little higher than it should be , 7 is high. I think the Colts can win the game. Good luck  this week.
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