NFL Conference Championships - Chiefs / Ravens - Lions / Niners...

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

History lesson...  From about 1997 to 2005 (Jan of 2006 to be exact), the online betting marketplace was the wild west.  Everything from Pinnacle, to Matchbook, to Mansion, to Pokerstars, with money services like Neteller and Skrill all available to Americans.  It was easy to move money book to book with a couple of clicks - and there was no such thing as -110.  If you had exchanges like Matchbook and Betfair - you had 1 cent spreads on almost anything. So during that period I was betting everything all year.  MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, Soccer - you name it.  In all honesty - my handicapping methods weren't nearly as sophisticated as they are now (maybe even unsophisticated), but with 1 cent spreads it was easier to overcome and be profitable.  So it was all about volume of edges.  And with 15 MLB games a night, I pumped volume. I would buy and sell positions on exchanges all day.  Arbs were available all the time - but there was no odds screens that did the work for you like Unabated does today.  I had 15 monitors open at all times, with different books waiting for 1 cent moves.  And you could find them all the time.  So you pounded them, then you rebalanced with Neteller in a couple of clicks.  Books didnt care.  Nobody cared. But it took a toll on my life.  This was my job.  My family was supportive, but I could tell it wasn't sustainable.  I was overweight and unhealthy.  Luckily - I call it the best thing that ever happened to me - UIGEA was passed and suddenly all of the books and transfer services were pulling out of the US market.  I held on by my contacts helping me out - but eventually the risk and effort overcame the profit potential. So around 2006, I knew what the plan needed to be.  I needed to refine my handicapping if I was going to continue to bet in to lines that were no longer going to have 1 cent spreads.  I went vegan.  I took statistics classes, and basic programming classes.  I dropped MLB, NBA, and NHL - a lot for the calendar but also a lot because I didnt feel like I could grind edges without the 1 cent spreads.  I hyperfocused on football and futbol. My family loved it because now I had every summer off - except for the intl futbol tournies.  I had a lot of time from Feb to May also - just betting futbol.  I developed software with the help of some overseas contractors that I have refined every year.  And life turned around.  I was saved by UIGEA. What is funny is that exchanges are now making a big comeback.  I have access to several where I can get 1 cent spreads now on MLB.  But I am at a point in my life where I am not going back.  I have enough.  I do enough.  And I love the freedom I have. So to answer your question - I havent bet an MLB game in 18 years.  Or NBA or NHL.  I believe in life that in order to be great at anything you should be a specialist not a generalist.  Be hyperfocused on the one slice of the gigantic pie that you can edge.  And put in the hours.  And when people think you are crazy for being solely focused on one thing - dont listen.  You will eventually find a way to make it work - but you must become an expert.  I am not an expert in MLB.  So it doesnt exist to me. GL

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by DefenseWinsSB: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg: Knew you'd be on the Ravens What are your thoughts on this one?Van is there a reason u don’t bet anything but football and soccer. I was talking to a guy at the sportsbook and he said a must for professional bettors is the MLB baseball season bc what you want is a lot of games and to be able to dig out of losing days or weeks????? Wondering if you do indeed play baseball or it’s just off your radar and u don’t have a good feel for it? These days, I bet Futbol and Football.  I only really post Football, and only NFL - although I do bet NCAAF.  I only post soccer tournaments. Long answer ahead.... I dont post soccer week to week because it is close to impossible.  You can see by my NFL posts how difficult it is - I post everything at once with numbers that people can actually bet.  I always hold to the philosophy that I dont need covers to be my personal recordkeeper - so what good is it to post now that I got the Ravens -3 -108 when it opened?  To brag?  So that Covers can see that I got a good number?  Eh.  Not why I do this.   So working under that framework - in order to post soccer week to week - where literally every penny and every tick on a line matters an incredible amount - and where lineups are released an hour before gametime and can sway a bet one way or the other - it is just impossible to be of service to anyone reading hoping to bet what I do.  I get lineups equal to or before anyone does.  I have about 30 seconds to a couple of minutes where I can bet in to stale lines. Do I really want to spoil very small markets where $500 can move a line by taking the time to type it out on covers?  The other part is that I realize who is on the other side of this at Covers - they are rec degens who will do the wrong thing and then come back and blame me.  I put out an over 2.5 -110, and they bet an over 2.75 at EV.  Then they blame me when it lands on 3.  It is a shitshow. There is a quality of life tradeoff for me posting also.  I have never made a penny doing this.   I have been offered a LOT of pennies to sell picks, many times, over many years.  It never feels right for me to do that - and I also feel like I make more money doing my own thing with no strings attached.  So I release them on covers and twitter.  But when you give away things for free - a lot of times people have the opposite reaction than you would think.  They expect more and more and more. I have been approached by a group - some might call it a syndicate - that I am currently talking with.  They dont sell picks - the opposite actually - there is a lot of secrecy for obvious reasons.  They want me to work with them.  There are big numbers involved.  Who knows if they can make it work where I am comfortable - but I will never sell picks like traditional touts do. (CONT)

Quote Originally Posted by BET2WIN4:

Vanz made it clear he never bet to win this game, overall he is as GREAT as they make! but come playoff time, that style of betting isnt going to get you the same success!!!! Chiefs