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Posts: 140

Rocky813

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2018

Posts: 795

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 6:27 PM ET #51

an_cheers

0

WilliamMunny

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 3902

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 6:29 PM ET #52

On both plus Lions ML .. LETS DO THIS !

an_cheers

1

tommymo3

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2018

Posts: 42

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 6:59 PM ET #53

@vanzack

Just out of curiosity say the line stayed where you got it originally at -3 -108 - Would that bump up to a 5 or 6 unit play? Or is 4 the most you will risk on an nfl side? Thanks…

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brn2loslive2win

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2016

Posts: 1796

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 7:14 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by Killer_B:

@vanzack You make fine picks, always strongly consider what you put up. I love both of these, they're begging you to take the Chiefs +3.5. Working on trying to get a ticket to AFC Champ, it's my hometown. I'd buy on Stubhub but hate paying them leaches $150-$200, ridiculous fees. I believe that golf season begins the day after football is over, it's like magic. I don't want to be bothered with it during NFL season.

Ah yes. Golf season or as I like to call it, stress free sports watching! In the northeast we have a few months before we can get the sticks back out.

@vanzack

I’ve always wondered if you ever got into golf betting? As you said earlier you were into just about every sport and nowadays just football and futbol. If you get a chance to answer-

what do you think about golf betting? Have you ever had any success with it? Know anyone who consistently makes a profit from it?

I know it’s a little off topic for your conference championship thread. Just curious. peace_5

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GAM

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 8295

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 9:07 PM ET #55

@brn2loslive2win

Curious about this as well. I was rolling through Van's twitter follows to see if there's anything in there I should pay attention to and noticed we follow a few of the same golf accounts. Seems like a statistical sport Van could be profitable in and it's so much easier than the grind of a football season IMO.

Congrats on a great NFL season, Van an_worship

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CCK

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2021

Posts: 538

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 9:15 PM ET #56

@vanzack

Fish and veggies for me bro also

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Jimmy_Cats

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2020

Posts: 2019

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 9:16 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by beavers82:

@jdmoney14 Yes, the old Lee Pete dead cat bounce theory...don't know if anyone remembers KDWN out of Vegas.

Sure I remember The Lee Pete Show on KDWN in the 80s. Funny, I remember Lee always putting in a word for those sansabelt slacks.

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Jimmy_Cats

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2020

Posts: 2019

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 9:16 PM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by beavers82:

@jdmoney14 Yes, the old Lee Pete dead cat bounce theory...don't know if anyone remembers KDWN out of Vegas.

Sure I remember The Lee Pete Show on KDWN in the 80s. Funny, I remember Lee always putting in a word for those sansabelt slacks.

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ebaysu

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 1885

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 9:38 PM ET #59

an_cheers need to be like you, hope you don't stop posting Van. Great season looking fwd to 2024

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ActionMagnet

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 8593

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 9:59 PM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by 1pumpchump:

First off, you are defiantly one of a kind, a breath of fresh air to Covers, and I thank you. I do my best to make my own lines, then bet the actual lines accordingly, i also search out the best numbers. I come on here to see what the Real Degen's think, and for laughs...I only look at a few people and take advise that i feel i missed on my own...With that being said.. On this game, I feel the performance of the Chiefs' wide receivers has been a significant letdown during the current season. The departure of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins (though they are already two years removed from it) has left the team struggling to find a consistent target for Mahomes. Sure, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Hardman have shown flashes of success. However, their inconsistency has shown concern about the team's ability to depend on them. This lack of reliability could potentially spell disaster for the Chiefs in the upcoming AFC Championship Game against the Feisty Ravens...All season long, the Chiefs' receivers have been inconsistent, I DONT see that changing here..NO ONE wants to see Taylor Swift 15 times, or his beer chugging brother. I see Baltimore being ready for the Clown show, and putting a beatdown on this team.. My real question to you is, after Baltimore and SF win (I didnt bet SF yet, but would be surprised if they dont win) What do you make that line? Balt/ SF And what would be your lean or play for that exact scenario? I figure, depending on scores this weekend, i would say Balt-1 Again, great year MANSACK

RAVENS are currently +180 to win the SB. If you’re confident they beat KC, I don’t see why you don’t hammer +180 to win it all because you’re not getting that number in the SB.

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vegasrebel417

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 788

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 10:20 PM ET #61

Van, thanks always for your insight.

Do you think we are closer to exchange wagering being legal and abundant here?

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begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15033

Posted: Jan. 23, 2024 - 10:52 PM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by tommymo3: Like the picks, Van! What’s your thoughts on a Ravens alt line? I’m looking at -9.5 +205 I like it.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

History lesson... From about 1997 to 2005 (Jan of 2006 to be exact), the online betting marketplace was the wild west. Everything from Pinnacle, to Matchbook, to Mansion, to Pokerstars, with money services like Neteller and Skrill all available to Americans. It was easy to move money book to book with a couple of clicks - and there was no such thing as -110. If you had exchanges like Matchbook and Betfair - you had 1 cent spreads on almost anything. So during that period I was betting everything all year. MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, Soccer - you name it. In all honesty - my handicapping methods weren't nearly as sophisticated as they are now (maybe even unsophisticated), but with 1 cent spreads it was easier to overcome and be profitable. So it was all about volume of edges. And with 15 MLB games a night, I pumped volume. I would buy and sell positions on exchanges all day. Arbs were available all the time - but there was no odds screens that did the work for you like Unabated does today. I had 15 monitors open at all times, with different books waiting for 1 cent moves. And you could find them all the time. So you pounded them, then you rebalanced with Neteller in a couple of clicks. Books didnt care. Nobody cared. But it took a toll on my life. This was my job. My family was supportive, but I could tell it wasn't sustainable. I was overweight and unhealthy. Luckily - I call it the best thing that ever happened to me - UIGEA was passed and suddenly all of the books and transfer services were pulling out of the US market. I held on by my contacts helping me out - but eventually the risk and effort overcame the profit potential. So around 2006, I knew what the plan needed to be. I needed to refine my handicapping if I was going to continue to bet in to lines that were no longer going to have 1 cent spreads. I went vegan. I took statistics classes, and basic programming classes. I dropped MLB, NBA, and NHL - a lot for the calendar but also a lot because I didnt feel like I could grind edges without the 1 cent spreads. I hyperfocused on football and futbol. My family loved it because now I had every summer off - except for the intl futbol tournies. I had a lot of time from Feb to May also - just betting futbol. I developed software with the help of some overseas contractors that I have refined every year. And life turned around. I was saved by UIGEA. What is funny is that exchanges are now making a big comeback. I have access to several where I can get 1 cent spreads now on MLB. But I am at a point in my life where I am not going back. I have enough. I do enough. And I love the freedom I have. So to answer your question - I havent bet an MLB game in 18 years. Or NBA or NHL. I believe in life that in order to be great at anything you should be a specialist not a generalist. Be hyperfocused on the one slice of the gigantic pie that you can edge. And put in the hours. And when people think you are crazy for being solely focused on one thing - dont listen. You will eventually find a way to make it work - but you must become an expert. I am not an expert in MLB. So it doesnt exist to me. GL

Great advice. Be a specialist in gambling and in life! I wish I could. My passions pull me in all directions all the time. You are a gem! Good luck with your plays. peace_5

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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by tommymo3: Like the picks, Van! What’s your thoughts on a Ravens alt line? I’m looking at -9.5 +205 I like it.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

History lesson... From about 1997 to 2005 (Jan of 2006 to be exact), the online betting marketplace was the wild west. Everything from Pinnacle, to Matchbook, to Mansion, to Pokerstars, with money services like Neteller and Skrill all available to Americans. It was easy to move money book to book with a couple of clicks - and there was no such thing as -110. If you had exchanges like Matchbook and Betfair - you had 1 cent spreads on almost anything. So during that period I was betting everything all year. MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, Soccer - you name it. In all honesty - my handicapping methods weren't nearly as sophisticated as they are now (maybe even unsophisticated), but with 1 cent spreads it was easier to overcome and be profitable. So it was all about volume of edges. And with 15 MLB games a night, I pumped volume. I would buy and sell positions on exchanges all day. Arbs were available all the time - but there was no odds screens that did the work for you like Unabated does today. I had 15 monitors open at all times, with different books waiting for 1 cent moves. And you could find them all the time. So you pounded them, then you rebalanced with Neteller in a couple of clicks. Books didnt care. Nobody cared. But it took a toll on my life. This was my job. My family was supportive, but I could tell it wasn't sustainable. I was overweight and unhealthy. Luckily - I call it the best thing that ever happened to me - UIGEA was passed and suddenly all of the books and transfer services were pulling out of the US market. I held on by my contacts helping me out - but eventually the risk and effort overcame the profit potential. So around 2006, I knew what the plan needed to be. I needed to refine my handicapping if I was going to continue to bet in to lines that were no longer going to have 1 cent spreads. I went vegan. I took statistics classes, and basic programming classes. I dropped MLB, NBA, and NHL - a lot for the calendar but also a lot because I didnt feel like I could grind edges without the 1 cent spreads. I hyperfocused on football and futbol. My family loved it because now I had every summer off - except for the intl futbol tournies. I had a lot of time from Feb to May also - just betting futbol. I developed software with the help of some overseas contractors that I have refined every year. And life turned around. I was saved by UIGEA. What is funny is that exchanges are now making a big comeback. I have access to several where I can get 1 cent spreads now on MLB. But I am at a point in my life where I am not going back. I have enough. I do enough. And I love the freedom I have. So to answer your question - I havent bet an MLB game in 18 years. Or NBA or NHL. I believe in life that in order to be great at anything you should be a specialist not a generalist. Be hyperfocused on the one slice of the gigantic pie that you can edge. And put in the hours. And when people think you are crazy for being solely focused on one thing - dont listen. You will eventually find a way to make it work - but you must become an expert. I am not an expert in MLB. So it doesnt exist to me. GL

Great advice. Be a specialist in gambling and in life! I wish I could. My passions pull me in all directions all the time. You are a gem! Good luck with your plays. peace_5

Bet15

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2020

Posts: 791

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 12:20 AM ET #63

@vanzack

"Lets just say there were tons of multiple accounts opened there for that promo. Some of the stories I have heard are pretty epic"

Give us some context to the stories please?

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ROCKON

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 1969

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 2:15 AM ET #64

Vanzack want to say thank you for another great year of your picks and insights to this football season always a must read.Thank you for your help all season long and good luck this week peace_5 an_worship moneybag most of us here appreciate you brother win

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ndsent1

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 19113

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 4:32 AM ET #65

@vanzack

Excellent looking card as usual Van,

time to get the brooms out!! clover

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D-Town

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2002

Posts: 158154

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 6:42 AM ET #66

Good luck Van. Really like the Ravens play. an_cheers

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Uconn34

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8002

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 7:49 AM ET #67

Down the hatch, bon Appétit!

Good luck van!

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williamwallace

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2004

Posts: 4961

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 8:17 AM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by Maukaboy: Thanks Van the Man Detroit only 1 unit? Yeah, not much of an edge either way. Kind of like a regular season lean that is a play off 1 unit play.

How much is a playoff unit compared to a regular season unit?

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1pumpchump

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 3181

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 10:17 AM ET #69

@ActionMagnet

Because Im NOT confident they beat the 49ers peace_5

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WilliamMunny

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 3902

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 10:29 AM ET #70

@ActionMagnet

i got it at +190

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kcblitzkrieg

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 7360

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 12:47 PM ET #71

@vanzack

What are your thoughts on this one?

DK has a great breakdown in his thread already that basically 99% echoes my thoughts on this matchup. If Mahomes wasn't the QB of the Chiefs then I'd be absolutely laying the wood on the Ravens. In this case, I hit Baltimore -3 out of the gate and have added a nice number to their SB futures at +200 and +190.

In addition to everything already stated in the thread linked below, I'd point out that KC just had their single highest offensive DVOA output of the season vs. the Bills. I like KC's defense to play well vs. Lamar but their offense is going to come back to Earth here this week and Mahomes can only do so much. If the defense decides this week to be their worst week of the year then this thing goes Over but I'm liking the Under so far.

Ravens are a different animal than KC has faced all year. I don't see them getting blown out but a 27-17 Ravens win or something slightly closer is definitely in the cards here. I'll be adding to Ravens to win SB after this week I'm sure. If we get a fluke game and KC pulls it out then it'll be load up on KC time for another ring...

peace_5

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/dk-nfl-afc-championship-chiefs-vs-ravens-103814572

America First

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RebelTell2

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 2935

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 12:58 PM ET #72

moneybag Thanks for sharing the resources and knowledge. Mighty kind.

Always thought CBB is the most predictable sport once conference play begins. Have you ever gotten into that?

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GamzOver

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 6179

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 3:32 PM ET #73

I like both. Would Detroit be more than a 1 if Deebo doesn't play ?

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Getty3

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 25167

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 3:42 PM ET #74

@brn2loslive2win

I'm not VZ but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.

Seriously, golf is a goldmine for those who follow the sport. Picking Top 40's at plus money is like shooting fish in a barrel. I lose some weeks but golf has been my bread and butter winner for years. Avoid picking the winner. Concentrate on Top 10's to 40's and winning scores relative to par. peace_5

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GAM

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 8295

Posted: Jan. 24, 2024 - 3:55 PM ET #75

Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

@brn2loslive2win I'm not VZ but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night. Seriously, golf is a goldmine for those who follow the sport. Picking Top 40's at plus money is like shooting fish in a barrel. I lose some weeks but golf has been my bread and butter winner for years. Avoid picking the winner. Concentrate on Top 10's to 40's and winning scores relative to par.

I see a lot of guys that have success doing this but it feels like another grind to me and I have so far been horrible at it in the 3 years been betting golf. Had much more success betting outright winners. Love the massive return on investment and that I expect to lose most weeks so it doesn't piss me off when I do lol.

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NFL Conference Championships - Chiefs / Ravens - Lions / Niners...

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