NFL Conference Championships - Chiefs / Ravens - Lions / Niners...

@vanzack

 GL ! 

Hey Van,

I'm curious.  The number for the Ravens was sitting at 3 when it first came out for almost the whole day.  You have Always been known to get the some of the best numbers.  Why did you settle on 3.5?

CONGRATS on an awesome year!

Should read...."You have always been known for getting some of the best numbers."

These days, I bet Futbol and Football.  I only really post Football, and only NFL - although I do bet NCAAF.  I only post soccer tournaments.

Long answer ahead....

I dont post soccer week to week because it is close to impossible.  You can see by my NFL posts how difficult it is - I post everything at once with numbers that people can actually bet.  I always hold to the philosophy that I dont need covers to be my personal recordkeeper - so what good is it to post now that I got the Ravens -3 -108 when it opened?  To brag?  So that Covers can see that I got a good number?  Eh.  Not why I do this.  

So working under that framework - in order to post soccer week to week - where literally every penny and every tick on a line matters an incredible amount - and where lineups are released an hour before gametime and can sway a bet one way or the other - it is just impossible to be of service to anyone reading hoping to bet what I do. 

I get lineups equal to or before anyone does.  I have about 30 seconds to a couple of minutes where I can bet in to stale lines. Do I really want to spoil very small markets where $500 can move a line by taking the time to type it out on covers?  The other part is that I realize who is on the other side of this at Covers - they are rec degens who will do the wrong thing and then come back and blame me.  I put out an over 2.5 -110, and they bet an over 2.75 at EV.  Then they blame me when it lands on 3.  It is a shitshow.

There is a quality of life tradeoff for me posting also.  I have never made a penny doing this.   I have been offered a LOT of pennies to sell picks, many times, over many years.  It never feels right for me to do that - and I also feel like I make more money doing my own thing with no strings attached.  So I release them on covers and twitter.  But when you give away things for free - a lot of times people have the opposite reaction than you would think.  They expect more and more and more.

I have been approached by a group - some might call it a syndicate - that I am currently talking with.  They dont sell picks - the opposite actually - there is a lot of secrecy for obvious reasons.  They want me to work with them.  There are big numbers involved.  Who knows if they can make it work where I am comfortable - but I will never sell picks like traditional touts do. (CONT)

History lesson...  From about 1997 to 2005 (Jan of 2006 to be exact), the online betting marketplace was the wild west.  Everything from Pinnacle, to Matchbook, to Mansion, to Pokerstars, with money services like Neteller and Skrill all available to Americans.  It was easy to move money book to book with a couple of clicks - and there was no such thing as -110.  If you had exchanges like Matchbook and Betfair - you had 1 cent spreads on almost anything.

So during that period I was betting everything all year.  MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, Soccer - you name it.  In all honesty - my handicapping methods weren't nearly as sophisticated as they are now (maybe even unsophisticated), but with 1 cent spreads it was easier to overcome and be profitable.  So it was all about volume of edges.  And with 15 MLB games a night, I pumped volume.

I would buy and sell positions on exchanges all day.  Arbs were available all the time - but there was no odds screens that did the work for you like Unabated does today.  I had 15 monitors open at all times, with different books waiting for 1 cent moves.  And you could find them all the time.  So you pounded them, then you rebalanced with Neteller in a couple of clicks.  Books didnt care.  Nobody cared.

But it took a toll on my life.  This was my job.  My family was supportive, but I could tell it wasn't sustainable.  I was overweight and unhealthy.  Luckily - I call it the best thing that ever happened to me - UIGEA was passed and suddenly all of the books and transfer services were pulling out of the US market.  I held on by my contacts helping me out - but eventually the risk and effort overcame the profit potential.

So around 2006, I knew what the plan needed to be.  I needed to refine my handicapping if I was going to continue to bet in to lines that were no longer going to have 1 cent spreads.  I went vegan.  I took statistics classes, and basic programming classes.  I dropped MLB, NBA, and NHL - a lot for the calendar but also a lot because I didnt feel like I could grind edges without the 1 cent spreads.  I hyperfocused on football and futbol.

My family loved it because now I had every summer off - except for the intl futbol tournies.  I had a lot of time from Feb to May also - just betting futbol.  I developed software with the help of some overseas contractors that I have refined every year.  And life turned around.  I was saved by UIGEA.

What is funny is that exchanges are now making a big comeback.  I have access to several where I can get 1 cent spreads now on MLB.  But I am at a point in my life where I am not going back.  I have enough.  I do enough.  And I love the freedom I have.

So to answer your question - I havent bet an MLB game in 18 years.  Or NBA or NHL.  I believe in life that in order to be great at anything you should be a specialist not a generalist.  Be hyperfocused on the one slice of the gigantic pie that you can edge.  And put in the hours.  And when people think you are crazy for being solely focused on one thing - dont listen.  You will eventually find a way to make it work - but you must become an expert.  I am not an expert in MLB.  So it doesnt exist to me.

GL

I like it.

Yeah, not much of an edge either way.  Kind of like a regular season lean that is a play off 1 unit play.

Read paragraph 3 of post #29.

But there are limits.  It was -3 with a 1k-5k limit for about 15 minutes.  So you blast away and get what you can down.  But not all of it.

I think when all is said and done I will be at about -3.3 at about -103

@vanzack

You make fine picks, always strongly consider what you put up. I love both of these, they're begging you to take the Chiefs +3.5. Working on trying to get a ticket to AFC Champ, it's my hometown. I'd buy on Stubhub but hate paying them leaches $150-$200, ridiculous fees.

I believe that golf season begins the day after football is over, it's like magic. I don't want to be bothered with it during NFL season.

@vanzack

 Just curious - are there any occassions when you miss eating meat?  

@vanzack

 That's a helluva story you've shared, Van..  Thanks for that !!   

Someone should write a book or at least a short story on the Mansion promo for the Dolphins / Steelers season opener.

Mansion.com had just opened online - and they were kinda sorta an exchange.  Owned by very rich degens - with more money than sense - they seeded their own exchange and were looking to get people and money there.

They offered a 1k free bet - on the Steelers vs the Dolphins (either 2004 or 2006).  You could be either side, and if you lost it was refunded up to 1100.  No rollover, you could WD the next day.

Lets just say there were tons of multiple accounts opened there for that promo.  Some of the stories I have heard are pretty epic.

Miss it?  Like mentally ever see someone eating a burger and think it would taste great?  Yes - definitely.

But miss it holistically?  NEVER.  I know what it would mean to go back.  No thanks.

I am a big animal rights supporter, and while I dont get involved in other peoples decisions around eating meat - I do advocate for the ethical treatment of animals.  So that has something to do with it also.

But if you want to get off the prescription drugs like statins, hypertension, weight loss etc - I cant think of a better place to start.

Your opinion is trash 

Ah man I agree on both 

Goff is 2-7 against the niners and 0-5 last 5.  I could definitely see this being a close game, but I wouldn’t be surprised with a 10 point + niner victory either.   Don’t think sf will play flat like last week where I believe rust and weather were a factor.  I don’t like dome turf teams on the road on the grass generally either.  Like the Baltimore play tho.  Good luck

First off, you are defiantly one of a kind, a breath of fresh air to Covers, and I thank you. I do my best to make my own lines, then bet the actual lines accordingly, i also search out the best numbers. I come on here to see what the Real Degen's think, and for laughs...I only look at a few people and take advise that i feel i missed on my own...With that being said..

On this game, I feel the performance of the Chiefs' wide receivers has been a significant letdown during the current season. The departure of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins (though they are already two years removed from it) has left the team struggling to find a consistent target for Mahomes. Sure, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Hardman have shown flashes of success. However, their inconsistency has shown concern about the team's ability to depend on them. This lack of reliability could potentially spell disaster for the Chiefs in the upcoming AFC Championship Game against the Feisty Ravens...All season long, the Chiefs' receivers have been inconsistent, I DONT see that changing here..NO ONE wants to see Taylor Swift 15 times, or his beer chugging brother. I see Baltimore being ready for the Clown show, and putting a beatdown on this team..

My real question to you is, after Baltimore and SF win (I didnt bet SF yet, but would be surprised if they dont win) What do you make that line? Balt/ SF And what would be your lean or play for that exact scenario? I figure, depending on scores this weekend, i would say Balt-1   Again, great year MANSACK 

@jdmoney14

 Yes, the old Lee Pete dead cat bounce theory...don't know if anyone remembers KDWN out of Vegas.

no idea what that means ha

Jardiance Lady is not going to like this

@vanzack

 , nail it, I bought 1/2 point, Ravens -3-130.

Will be on same sides. Just working on totals.