NFL Conference Championships - Chiefs / Ravens - Lions / Niners...

Also not that it should factor into decisions about making money betting sports, but I haven't experienced a thrill in gambling like hitting a golf outright. When you bet some college football team ML +850 and it comes through you're a god for a day but in golf betting that's just betting chalk. Nothing like nailing a 100/1 outright. 

@van

Im learning something from you today, have a great weekend.

Thanks.

I think the SB if Niners / Ravens is a PK.

Ahhh.... Good detectives here...

So I have been curious about golf betting.  Smaller market, not very mature - with lots of emerging data sources and a schedule that fits in well with mine - all a very good formula for what I like to do.  So 2 years ago I started tracking data, working data, and getting familiar with it all.  If you cant tell by now - I am not going to do anything until I am fairly sure I can make a good go of it - so I have spent two years simulating wagering.

I am glad I did.  First off - there is a pretty big house hold on a lot of the types of bets you can get edges on.  Hard to bet in to 40 cent spreads on head to heads - which is what a lot of books offer.  Exchanges offer wagering - but getting matched for any bets of size is still difficult - but getting better.

Last season, I was a -.9% theoretical EV - which is not so bad.  But not good enough to start wagering yet.  But getting closer and closer.

I do love the data side of golf.  I dont know if there is a better data sport out there (MLB probably).  

My best (probably worst) golf wagering story....

I had a "fun" bet on Justin Rose to win the Masters the year he lost to Sergio Garcia in a playoff.  I had the wager at a bitcoin book - and I think my odds were like 20-1 on Rose to win - and at the time I would have won about 60 bitcoin which was about 80k at the time (from memory).  Rose had a 2 shot lead with 2 holes to play (memory), and choked the whole thing up and went to extra holes and lost.

At the time I was sick that I didnt win 80k, but that 60 bitcoin at todays prices is about $2.4M.

I try not to think about it lol.

I say my units are between 1-5, but really it would take a LOT for me to go to 5.  4 is a big play.

It would have to be a really weird number for me to go to 5 units on the Ravens.  Like PK or something.

Yes.  It is coming.  And fast.

In five years, it will be more than 50%.

@begginerboy

I started my life as a generalist.

But if there is one life lesson I have learned during my time on this planet is to be a specialist.  It doesnt matter what specialty.  Just concentrate on being a master of a few things rather than ok at a bunch of things.

If I cant be potentially great at something I try not to invest too much time.

@ROCKON

@ndsent1

@D-Town

@Uconn34

Read post #29 and #30

Hi Van, DFOB founder here (Dogs For Our Brave). Just a quick note to thank you for all the hard work you put into wagering. And for your wonderful support for our rescue dogs in so many shelters. WELL DONE

@vanzack

 I like both plays, but I'm not wagering so light on Detroit. I haven't finalized anything yet. Not till Saturday morning. I wish you could join me when I plug in my multi million dollar computer while enjoying a Mickey D's steak, egg and cheese bagel ?? 

Van I echo what Rush51 said very informative and fascinating philosophy's you revealed! I'm going to try to use one this weekend. Hope to change my losing ways! Thanks 

GL Zack. Same here

Just sickening when you convert it to current value 

I look forward to the day a couple years from now that I can consult your golf card on Twitter or share in discussions here on Covers about the weekly events 

Van- Math question....disregarding your opinion on parlays.....

Balt ML/Detroit Atl line +10.5 parlay is about +140

Where, if any, does the math suggest this is a good wager? Closer to +200? I think the current Ravens ML is too low.....so while it doesn't add "value", at the current -180ish, I think its 40c too low.....thus making it appealing to take those 3.5 points and give them to Detroit.....

Big on the Ravens 

Small on the Lions 

My work here is finished, I didn't have to cap the playoffs this year, I Just followed along.

Quality work Van

@1pumpchump

 were you able to put his entire schlong in your mouth or just the tip?

I'd like to get a +7.5 on the Lions at a decent price, but not paying -115+.

They announce Deebo and the line has moved to the Lions?

[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]I'd like to get a +7.5 on the Lions at a decent price, but not paying -115+. They announce Deebo and the line has moved to the Lions?[/Quote]

Things that make you go, hmmmmmmm

Great insight as always VZ. Love it! 

On both plays with you. Let’s get it done!

@vanzack

Finally! What I have been waiting for a long time. To see someone realistic, someone professional who know how to bet. Not all haters on this Covers. What vanzack wrote here is the reason why I joined covers 10 years ago. Finally, I found a man who knows how to "eat" bets. I wasn't hooked on the NFL forum until I saw a post by @vanzack on the NBA forum last December and I started following American football myself. I don't bet on the NBA anymore because the NBA is a joke now. If you want to win by betting, do the opposite of what the bookmakers expect. For example, the big soccer teams start to receive a lot of goals from the weaker teams. Bet that any big team like Barcelona, Milan, Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern, Atletico Madrid, Dortmund, Monaco etc get a goal from the low ranked teams. If they play at home and continue attack and score earlier try for the second goal in game at -130 or -190.

GL on your plays @vanzack