I noticed on the injury report that Trevor Lawernce is questionable because of his toe. What happens if he can't play? How much will the line move is what I am wondering.
I think that toe injury has been on the report his last 3 to 4 games.
0
Quote Originally Posted by kevmode:
I noticed on the injury report that Trevor Lawernce is questionable because of his toe. What happens if he can't play? How much will the line move is what I am wondering.
I think that toe injury has been on the report his last 3 to 4 games.
Very much appreciate your efforts here Van, could you post your thoughts on the cowboys/Niners game? It's a very tough game but I seem to think the opposite for this game.
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@vanzack
Very much appreciate your efforts here Van, could you post your thoughts on the cowboys/Niners game? It's a very tough game but I seem to think the opposite for this game.
@vanzack Very much appreciate your efforts here Van, could you post your thoughts on the cowboys/Niners game? It's a very tough game but I seem to think the opposite for this game.
It is coming this afternoon....
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Quote Originally Posted by skjbmofo:
@vanzack Very much appreciate your efforts here Van, could you post your thoughts on the cowboys/Niners game? It's a very tough game but I seem to think the opposite for this game.
Daniel Boone at a Raccoon convention.. But Really, Van, did you plagiarize any of that eloquent diatribe..?? If not, you're Picasso of the Keyboard The Silver goes to Spock
All my words except a little help from JayZ at the end.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:
Daniel Boone at a Raccoon convention.. But Really, Van, did you plagiarize any of that eloquent diatribe..?? If not, you're Picasso of the Keyboard The Silver goes to Spock
All my words except a little help from JayZ at the end.
If you're making a living while working on your craft, no need for the validation. As the old saying goes, money talks. You can never master anything, but if making strides on your philosophy and by that, I'm referring to the philosophy of your mind, you will continue to grow and achieve more daily and whatever you desire will present itself to you. I, like yourself, come here to learn from past experiences and to think and grow together while predicting future outcomes for our benefit. Like with anything, it takes work to find what you're looking for. Don't give into the ignorance of most...there are still "some" quality's cappers here. My schedule has me going in too many directions to contribute like times past, but I still go mining often.
BOL with your card and appreciate your insight
You can never underestimate the predictability of stupidity
0
@vanzack
If you're making a living while working on your craft, no need for the validation. As the old saying goes, money talks. You can never master anything, but if making strides on your philosophy and by that, I'm referring to the philosophy of your mind, you will continue to grow and achieve more daily and whatever you desire will present itself to you. I, like yourself, come here to learn from past experiences and to think and grow together while predicting future outcomes for our benefit. Like with anything, it takes work to find what you're looking for. Don't give into the ignorance of most...there are still "some" quality's cappers here. My schedule has me going in too many directions to contribute like times past, but I still go mining often.
@vanzack If you're making a living while working on your craft, no need for the validation. As the old saying goes, money talks. You can never master anything, but if making strides on your philosophy and by that, I'm referring to the philosophy of your mind, you will continue to grow and achieve more daily and whatever you desire will present itself to you. I, like yourself, come here to learn from past experiences and to think and grow together while predicting future outcomes for our benefit. Like with anything, it takes work to find what you're looking for. Don't give into the ignorance of most...there are still "some" quality's cappers here. My schedule has me going in too many directions to contribute like times past, but I still go mining often. BOL with your card and appreciate your insight
Agree.
Simple equation... When what I get out of covers goes below what I put in to covers - I drift off in to the night breeze.
Right now, I am good.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
Quote Originally Posted by DC-NOSUCKB2B:
@vanzack If you're making a living while working on your craft, no need for the validation. As the old saying goes, money talks. You can never master anything, but if making strides on your philosophy and by that, I'm referring to the philosophy of your mind, you will continue to grow and achieve more daily and whatever you desire will present itself to you. I, like yourself, come here to learn from past experiences and to think and grow together while predicting future outcomes for our benefit. Like with anything, it takes work to find what you're looking for. Don't give into the ignorance of most...there are still "some" quality's cappers here. My schedule has me going in too many directions to contribute like times past, but I still go mining often. BOL with your card and appreciate your insight
Agree.
Simple equation... When what I get out of covers goes below what I put in to covers - I drift off in to the night breeze.
Anyone think any of the Dawgs have a chance on the moneyline? I would love to see the Giants win the whole thing or the Jags. The Giants just have the feel of that Eli Manning superbowl team that beat the undefeated Patriots. I have a weird gut feeling.
How you gonna make that claim with your username? Daniel Jones giants defense isnt as good Eli manning giants defense. Even van has eagles @ -7.5
To take a fav to cover by more than a TD says alot from him. He probably has giants losing by double digits.
0
Quote Originally Posted by DefenseWinsSB:
Anyone think any of the Dawgs have a chance on the moneyline? I would love to see the Giants win the whole thing or the Jags. The Giants just have the feel of that Eli Manning superbowl team that beat the undefeated Patriots. I have a weird gut feeling.
How you gonna make that claim with your username? Daniel Jones giants defense isnt as good Eli manning giants defense. Even van has eagles @ -7.5
To take a fav to cover by more than a TD says alot from him. He probably has giants losing by double digits.
Quote Originally Posted by spockgato: sincerely yours , spockgato Read it twice. Maybe the nicest compliment I have received in I wasted countless hours searching instead of solving rubiks cubes and similar productive ventures. Hence - I am a degenerate who makes a living predicting the future and swatting flies away from my picnic vegan sandwich here at covers. What a life right? Check out the documentary in case you havent already. My experience at Covers has taught me a lot. I always talk about learning here - and that is the . But it gets old. You just cant win. You post winners, and then someone has issues with your unit sizes. You post current lines - something nobody here does - for all games all at once - which nobody here does - you keep a record - which nobody here does - and you win - which is very rare over a season here - and they still act like a pebble in your shoe. Its not like my covers posts are bringing sand to a beach. There are some here who know their sh*t, but most are cavemen looking up at the stars who are being brought an Iphone and all they do is throw it in the cave fire and then go on to make scrawlings on the wall that describe how they just burned this contraption that got in the way of their mastodon hunt. But I get it. Its all good. I continue to do it. I get approached at least 5 times a year about different types of offers - mostly from those unseemly underworld of the tout industry - but a lot legit also. I can never get over the hump of saying "once I start charging for my services, I have a responsibility". Right now I have none - and I do what I d. So fire up those vegan hot dogs, and swat those flies. This is the life I choose. When I come back like Jordan, wearin' the 4-5It ain't to play games with youIt's to aim at you, probably maim youIf I owe you I'm blowin' you to smithereens Cocksucker take one for your teamAnd I need you to remember one thing (one thing)I came, I saw, I conqueredFrom record sales, to sold out concertsSo motherfucker if you want this encoreI need you to scream, 'til your lungs get sore
The caveman metaphor made me chuckle. So true. So many people on this site and life in general are so miserable they can't wait for someone else to fail or even just have a bad day in a season of constant winning. It still boggles my mind that some, possibly the majority here, seem to think this is a competition between cappers.....when in reality we are all on the same team playing against "the man". Its like we are on the court together in the gambling game, but if you look closely you'll see most of these dudes aint your teammates....they just have courtside seats and are eating popcorn waiting for you to make a bad play so they can heckle you....I kind of feel like the Covers Reggie Miller taunting Covers Average Poster Spike Lee with the choke sign....I've been here 20 years and nothing has really changed...I know the core group of good dudes on here and there is a big group of people that just wanna read and get plays/info but not get involved in the forum shenanigans...which is totally cool...but, society has become full of keyboard warriors and ridiculous online posers of which Covers gets a new batch frequently.....and those new dudes are like fingernails on a chalkboard....its almost impossible to not react to them.....which is exactly what they want and usually get....I find it entertaining, but I can understand why most don't.
Van
3
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by spockgato: sincerely yours , spockgato Read it twice. Maybe the nicest compliment I have received in I wasted countless hours searching instead of solving rubiks cubes and similar productive ventures. Hence - I am a degenerate who makes a living predicting the future and swatting flies away from my picnic vegan sandwich here at covers. What a life right? Check out the documentary in case you havent already. My experience at Covers has taught me a lot. I always talk about learning here - and that is the . But it gets old. You just cant win. You post winners, and then someone has issues with your unit sizes. You post current lines - something nobody here does - for all games all at once - which nobody here does - you keep a record - which nobody here does - and you win - which is very rare over a season here - and they still act like a pebble in your shoe. Its not like my covers posts are bringing sand to a beach. There are some here who know their sh*t, but most are cavemen looking up at the stars who are being brought an Iphone and all they do is throw it in the cave fire and then go on to make scrawlings on the wall that describe how they just burned this contraption that got in the way of their mastodon hunt. But I get it. Its all good. I continue to do it. I get approached at least 5 times a year about different types of offers - mostly from those unseemly underworld of the tout industry - but a lot legit also. I can never get over the hump of saying "once I start charging for my services, I have a responsibility". Right now I have none - and I do what I d. So fire up those vegan hot dogs, and swat those flies. This is the life I choose. When I come back like Jordan, wearin' the 4-5It ain't to play games with youIt's to aim at you, probably maim youIf I owe you I'm blowin' you to smithereens Cocksucker take one for your teamAnd I need you to remember one thing (one thing)I came, I saw, I conqueredFrom record sales, to sold out concertsSo motherfucker if you want this encoreI need you to scream, 'til your lungs get sore
The caveman metaphor made me chuckle. So true. So many people on this site and life in general are so miserable they can't wait for someone else to fail or even just have a bad day in a season of constant winning. It still boggles my mind that some, possibly the majority here, seem to think this is a competition between cappers.....when in reality we are all on the same team playing against "the man". Its like we are on the court together in the gambling game, but if you look closely you'll see most of these dudes aint your teammates....they just have courtside seats and are eating popcorn waiting for you to make a bad play so they can heckle you....I kind of feel like the Covers Reggie Miller taunting Covers Average Poster Spike Lee with the choke sign....I've been here 20 years and nothing has really changed...I know the core group of good dudes on here and there is a big group of people that just wanna read and get plays/info but not get involved in the forum shenanigans...which is totally cool...but, society has become full of keyboard warriors and ridiculous online posers of which Covers gets a new batch frequently.....and those new dudes are like fingernails on a chalkboard....its almost impossible to not react to them.....which is exactly what they want and usually get....I find it entertaining, but I can understand why most don't.
Fair enough... can't argue with anything you said - I float in and out of posting for some of the same reasons as you (not something I do full time - more of a side hustle).
Cheers
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@vanzack
Fair enough... can't argue with anything you said - I float in and out of posting for some of the same reasons as you (not something I do full time - more of a side hustle).
Devil advocate: sometimes the negatives comments makes me rethink or re evaluates some of my plays. Kind of like a slap to the brain. Covers is a sounding board for me. All comments welcome. I also believe its only a few who are really negative who just use multiple alias.
0
@TRAIN69
Devil advocate: sometimes the negatives comments makes me rethink or re evaluates some of my plays. Kind of like a slap to the brain. Covers is a sounding board for me. All comments welcome. I also believe its only a few who are really negative who just use multiple alias.
Most peoples worst enemy is themselves. They cant get out of their own way - always tripping on the shit they leave in their own way. Then they transition to "if I fail, everyone else needs to fail also".
And like you said - instead of getting in to a mode of learning and getting better - they get in a mode of destruction and frustration. Because they cant touch those that are doing it - they can only attempt throw tomatoes at them while wondering why most splatter in their hands and get all over their new polyester suit.
The best advice I can give to anyone is to keep learning. Learn from people smarter than you. I do it here all the time. I look to people of elevated training and status to emulate and listen to. The second you think there is nothing to learn, or that you must be smarter than someone who you would like to be - you are cooked.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
6
@TRAIN69
Most peoples worst enemy is themselves. They cant get out of their own way - always tripping on the shit they leave in their own way. Then they transition to "if I fail, everyone else needs to fail also".
And like you said - instead of getting in to a mode of learning and getting better - they get in a mode of destruction and frustration. Because they cant touch those that are doing it - they can only attempt throw tomatoes at them while wondering why most splatter in their hands and get all over their new polyester suit.
The best advice I can give to anyone is to keep learning. Learn from people smarter than you. I do it here all the time. I look to people of elevated training and status to emulate and listen to. The second you think there is nothing to learn, or that you must be smarter than someone who you would like to be - you are cooked.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: When what I get out of covers goes below what I put in to covers - I drift off in to the night breeze. Except for the world cup thread.....please don't ever stop that.... That was the thread that brought me back here to this godforsaken place
Glad you are back.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: When what I get out of covers goes below what I put in to covers - I drift off in to the night breeze. Except for the world cup thread.....please don't ever stop that.... That was the thread that brought me back here to this godforsaken place
@TRAIN69 Devil advocate: sometimes the negatives comments makes me rethink or re evaluates some of my plays. Kind of like a slap to the brain. Covers is a sounding board for me. All comments welcome. I also believe its only a few who are really negative who just use multiple alias.
Its not about differing opinions. That is exactly why I post. I want people to critically look at what I am doing and make useful productive comments.
I think he (and I) are talking about the non-productive stuff. The tomato throwers. The choosing beggars - "I want winners, I want writeups also, I want them all to win, and I want YOU to do it FOR ME" - the eaters of fish who refuse to learn how to fish.
I have written novels here on fishing. You know where those are? In the dustbins and outer corners of some covers server in Malaysia. You know what are my popular threads? Fish. Picks. Here are the fish for the masses. Forget learning to fish - those are the folks Train and I are interested in - we want to be better fisherman ourselves. Nothing I like more than wanting to catch a lionfish and I got the lionfish king fisherman right here at covers who is wiling to give me a leg up - and it happens all the time for me. So I learn, work, catch the lionfish and throw it to the masses - who want more - and more - and refuse to pick up their own rod and reel.
Listen - I get the deal. But it is insight in to the human condition. One dude in here posted he bet 8k on the Bulldogs to win the national title, and today he is begging for a go fund me because he cant make a 2 dollar bet. That is a guy who wont learn to fish. He wants YOU to fish FOR HIM.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
3
Quote Originally Posted by Ppkay:
@TRAIN69 Devil advocate: sometimes the negatives comments makes me rethink or re evaluates some of my plays. Kind of like a slap to the brain. Covers is a sounding board for me. All comments welcome. I also believe its only a few who are really negative who just use multiple alias.
Its not about differing opinions. That is exactly why I post. I want people to critically look at what I am doing and make useful productive comments.
I think he (and I) are talking about the non-productive stuff. The tomato throwers. The choosing beggars - "I want winners, I want writeups also, I want them all to win, and I want YOU to do it FOR ME" - the eaters of fish who refuse to learn how to fish.
I have written novels here on fishing. You know where those are? In the dustbins and outer corners of some covers server in Malaysia. You know what are my popular threads? Fish. Picks. Here are the fish for the masses. Forget learning to fish - those are the folks Train and I are interested in - we want to be better fisherman ourselves. Nothing I like more than wanting to catch a lionfish and I got the lionfish king fisherman right here at covers who is wiling to give me a leg up - and it happens all the time for me. So I learn, work, catch the lionfish and throw it to the masses - who want more - and more - and refuse to pick up their own rod and reel.
Listen - I get the deal. But it is insight in to the human condition. One dude in here posted he bet 8k on the Bulldogs to win the national title, and today he is begging for a go fund me because he cant make a 2 dollar bet. That is a guy who wont learn to fish. He wants YOU to fish FOR HIM.
Quote Originally Posted by Ppkay: @TRAIN69 Devil advocate: sometimes the negatives comments makes me rethink or re evaluates some of my plays. Kind of like a slap to the brain. Covers is a sounding board for me. All comments welcome. I also believe its only a few who are really negative who just use multiple alias. Its not about differing opinions. That is exactly why I post. I want people to critically look at what I am doing and make useful productive comments. I think he (and I) are talking about the non-productive stuff. The tomato throwers. The choosing beggars - "I want winners, I want writeups also, I want them all to win, and I want YOU to do it FOR ME" - the eaters of fish who refuse to learn how to fish. I have written novels here on fishing. You know where those are? In the dustbins and outer corners of some covers server in Malaysia. You know what are my popular threads? Fish. Picks. Here are the fish for the masses. Forget learning to fish - those are the folks Train and I are interested in - we want to be better fisherman ourselves. Nothing I like more than wanting to catch a lionfish and I got the lionfish king fisherman right here at covers who is wiling to give me a leg up - and it happens all the time for me. So I learn, work, catch the lionfish and throw it to the masses - who want more - and more - and refuse to pick up their own rod and reel. Listen - I get the deal. But it is insight in to the human condition. One dude in here posted he bet 8k on the Bulldogs to win the national title, and today he is begging for a go fund me because he cant make a 2 dollar bet. That is a guy who wont learn to fish. He wants fish.
Yep. So many people can't/dont know how to wager. It doesn't matter what you bet, it matters that you can afford to do it so its not a detriment to your life. There are rich guys that piss money away daily....and some people who are pretty sharp that simply don't have the money to bet. There are lots of team specific or regional guys on Covers that have a better insight than you will find on any podcast or gambling website. Like Van said, people don't wanna spend the time baiting the hook,packing the gear and watching the weather for the right time to fish....they want to go to Red Lobster and have it brought to them on a silver platter....they can't fathom nor do they ever intend to learn how that fish got set in front of them....so it pisses the cook off when they complain about the meal....
1
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by Ppkay: @TRAIN69 Devil advocate: sometimes the negatives comments makes me rethink or re evaluates some of my plays. Kind of like a slap to the brain. Covers is a sounding board for me. All comments welcome. I also believe its only a few who are really negative who just use multiple alias. Its not about differing opinions. That is exactly why I post. I want people to critically look at what I am doing and make useful productive comments. I think he (and I) are talking about the non-productive stuff. The tomato throwers. The choosing beggars - "I want winners, I want writeups also, I want them all to win, and I want YOU to do it FOR ME" - the eaters of fish who refuse to learn how to fish. I have written novels here on fishing. You know where those are? In the dustbins and outer corners of some covers server in Malaysia. You know what are my popular threads? Fish. Picks. Here are the fish for the masses. Forget learning to fish - those are the folks Train and I are interested in - we want to be better fisherman ourselves. Nothing I like more than wanting to catch a lionfish and I got the lionfish king fisherman right here at covers who is wiling to give me a leg up - and it happens all the time for me. So I learn, work, catch the lionfish and throw it to the masses - who want more - and more - and refuse to pick up their own rod and reel. Listen - I get the deal. But it is insight in to the human condition. One dude in here posted he bet 8k on the Bulldogs to win the national title, and today he is begging for a go fund me because he cant make a 2 dollar bet. That is a guy who wont learn to fish. He wants fish.
Yep. So many people can't/dont know how to wager. It doesn't matter what you bet, it matters that you can afford to do it so its not a detriment to your life. There are rich guys that piss money away daily....and some people who are pretty sharp that simply don't have the money to bet. There are lots of team specific or regional guys on Covers that have a better insight than you will find on any podcast or gambling website. Like Van said, people don't wanna spend the time baiting the hook,packing the gear and watching the weather for the right time to fish....they want to go to Red Lobster and have it brought to them on a silver platter....they can't fathom nor do they ever intend to learn how that fish got set in front of them....so it pisses the cook off when they complain about the meal....
Factors I value in the playoffs (not in order) more than the regular season: 1. Multidimensional offenses and defenses. If they take away our run, can we throw? If I cant get to the QB on defense, can I defend in the secondary while blitzing? etc 2. QB play - multidimensional 3A. Line of scrimmage stats. Win rates. Pressure rates. 3B. Ability to get to QB and move him and make him make quick decisions
Included in the subtext of the things listed above are coaching and gameplanning, turnovers that result, and field position.
This game is not a stats play for me, although the stats support it. It is a minority play for me in that it is my eyes that I am trusting. I went back and watched Brock Purdys throws - all of them - since Dec 4 against the Dolphins. When you get pressure on this guy - he does something consistently - he attempts to make space by usually rolling to his non-throwing hand side - and making a throw across his body. His pressured throws look and feel a whole lot different than his non-pressured throws - and by that I mean worse.
This is so easy to identify that I dont even think Mike McCarthy can miss it. The formula for taking down the Niners is stop the run first, then make Purdy make quick decisions. That will lead to mistakes, and turnovers decide football games. So can the Cowboys stop the run and make the Niners one dimensional? A different task than doing it to the Bucs - which they did - but I think it is just more of the same for the Cowboys. Cowboys are 6th in NFL adjusted in last 8 weeks against the run. The Niners are 2nd in rushing attack. This is the key to the game I feel - stop the Niners run and the Cowboys defense will win this game for them. If the Niners can run, and Purdy ends up with 20 passing attempts - the Cowboys are cooked.
The Cowboys are #1 in the NFL in pressure rate. Brock Purdy is going to have to prove that he can make quick decisions - at an NFL level of speed - against a team that will be moving him all day long. San Fran intended air yards (how many yards per pass attempt are in the air) are close to the lowest in the league - which is exactly how the Cowboys took down the Bucs - so I like my chances once Purdy is scrambling and trying to make medium to long throws because the Cowboys should be prepared for the dinks and dunks.
On the other side - the Cowboys should be able to mix it up running and passing and be balanced. They need to be. If Dak gets in to a throw first mentality - and becomes predictable - that is where there is trouble. I liked what I saw from the misdirection plays against the Bucs - moving Dak around and using his legs to compensate for being a mediocre drop back passer. He is mistake prone and needs to be managed.
In the end, field position and turnovers will go a long way to the Cowboys winning. In my simulations - the average YTT (yards to touchdown) of starting Cowboys drives was 58 and the Niners 77. Cowboys covered +4 in 63%, and won outright in just about 50%.
Cowboys 21 Niners 14
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Cowboys / Niners
Factors I value in the playoffs (not in order) more than the regular season: 1. Multidimensional offenses and defenses. If they take away our run, can we throw? If I cant get to the QB on defense, can I defend in the secondary while blitzing? etc 2. QB play - multidimensional 3A. Line of scrimmage stats. Win rates. Pressure rates. 3B. Ability to get to QB and move him and make him make quick decisions
Included in the subtext of the things listed above are coaching and gameplanning, turnovers that result, and field position.
This game is not a stats play for me, although the stats support it. It is a minority play for me in that it is my eyes that I am trusting. I went back and watched Brock Purdys throws - all of them - since Dec 4 against the Dolphins. When you get pressure on this guy - he does something consistently - he attempts to make space by usually rolling to his non-throwing hand side - and making a throw across his body. His pressured throws look and feel a whole lot different than his non-pressured throws - and by that I mean worse.
This is so easy to identify that I dont even think Mike McCarthy can miss it. The formula for taking down the Niners is stop the run first, then make Purdy make quick decisions. That will lead to mistakes, and turnovers decide football games. So can the Cowboys stop the run and make the Niners one dimensional? A different task than doing it to the Bucs - which they did - but I think it is just more of the same for the Cowboys. Cowboys are 6th in NFL adjusted in last 8 weeks against the run. The Niners are 2nd in rushing attack. This is the key to the game I feel - stop the Niners run and the Cowboys defense will win this game for them. If the Niners can run, and Purdy ends up with 20 passing attempts - the Cowboys are cooked.
The Cowboys are #1 in the NFL in pressure rate. Brock Purdy is going to have to prove that he can make quick decisions - at an NFL level of speed - against a team that will be moving him all day long. San Fran intended air yards (how many yards per pass attempt are in the air) are close to the lowest in the league - which is exactly how the Cowboys took down the Bucs - so I like my chances once Purdy is scrambling and trying to make medium to long throws because the Cowboys should be prepared for the dinks and dunks.
On the other side - the Cowboys should be able to mix it up running and passing and be balanced. They need to be. If Dak gets in to a throw first mentality - and becomes predictable - that is where there is trouble. I liked what I saw from the misdirection plays against the Bucs - moving Dak around and using his legs to compensate for being a mediocre drop back passer. He is mistake prone and needs to be managed.
In the end, field position and turnovers will go a long way to the Cowboys winning. In my simulations - the average YTT (yards to touchdown) of starting Cowboys drives was 58 and the Niners 77. Cowboys covered +4 in 63%, and won outright in just about 50%.
Curious on Jags and Trevor being questionable for game. I do not know anything about the back up qb and sure you do. But any insight? bol and I hope you keep killing it.
c'mon man -- he has been listed as questionable for the last 4 games...why are you only seeing it now?
0
Quote Originally Posted by Area51:
Curious on Jags and Trevor being questionable for game. I do not know anything about the back up qb and sure you do. But any insight? bol and I hope you keep killing it.
c'mon man -- he has been listed as questionable for the last 4 games...why are you only seeing it now?
Snug lines this week. Gonna be some good games to watch.
Some thoughts:
--Jax got lucky as owl shit last week; don't think it'll happen in KC.
--Kicker situation with Dallas scares me off them.
--Danny and the Giants looked strong last week (but that was against the worst defense in the NFL.) NYG 13-4 ATS, going against an intra-divisional team. Philly's gonna need a coupla TOs to cover the number. Of course it could happen, but this game along with Dallas/SF are gonna be slobberknockers. Good to watch, not to bet.
BOL,
RT2
0
@vanzack
Snug lines this week. Gonna be some good games to watch.
Some thoughts:
--Jax got lucky as owl shit last week; don't think it'll happen in KC.
--Kicker situation with Dallas scares me off them.
--Danny and the Giants looked strong last week (but that was against the worst defense in the NFL.) NYG 13-4 ATS, going against an intra-divisional team. Philly's gonna need a coupla TOs to cover the number. Of course it could happen, but this game along with Dallas/SF are gonna be slobberknockers. Good to watch, not to bet.
Dallas worries me a bit on the defensive end , they have been exposed before by teams like the jaguars for example and SF is much better o
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Cowboys / Niners Factors I value in the playoffs (not in order) more than the regular season:1. Multidimensional offenses and defenses. If they take away our run, can we throw? If I cant get to the QB on defense, can I defend in the secondary while blitzing? etc2. QB play - multidimensional3A. Line of scrimmage stats. Win rates. Pressure rates.3B. Ability to get to QB and move him and make him make quick decisions Included in the subtext of the things listed above are coaching and gameplanning, turnovers that result, and field position. This game is not a stats play for me, although the stats support it. It is a minority play for me in that it is my eyes that I am trusting. I went back and watched Brock Purdys throws - all of them - since Dec 4 against the Dolphins. When you get pressure on this guy - he does something consistently - he attempts to make space by usually rolling to his non-throwing hand side - and making a throw across his body. His pressured throws look and feel a whole lot different than his non-pressured throws - and by that I mean worse. This is so easy to identify that I dont even think Mike McCarthy can miss it. The formula for taking down the Niners is stop the run first, then make Purdy make quick decisions. That will lead to mistakes, and turnovers decide football games. So can the Cowboys stop the run and make the Niners one dimensional? A different task than doing it to the Bucs - which they did - but I think it is just more of the same for the Cowboys. Cowboys are 6th in NFL adjusted in last 8 weeks against the run. The Niners are 2nd in rushing attack. This is the key to the game I feel - stop the Niners run and the Cowboys defense will win this game for them. If the Niners can run, and Purdy ends up with 20 passing attempts - the Cowboys are cooked. The Cowboys are #1 in the NFL in pressure rate. Brock Purdy is going to have to prove that he can make quick decisions - at an NFL level of speed - against a team that will be moving him all day long. San Fran intended air yards (how many yards per pass attempt are in the air) are close to the lowest in the league - which is exactly how the Cowboys took down the Bucs - so I like my chances once Purdy is scrambling and trying to make medium to long throws because the Cowboys should be prepared for the dinks and dunks. On the other side - the Cowboys should be able to mix it up running and passing and be balanced. They need to be. If Dak gets in to a throw first mentality - and becomes predictable - that is where there is trouble. I liked what I saw from the misdirection plays against the Bucs - moving Dak around and using his legs to compensate for being a mediocre drop back passer. He is mistake prone and needs to be managed. In the end, field position and turnovers will go a long way to the Cowboys winning. In my simulations - the average YTT (yards to touchdown) of starting Cowboys drives was 58 and the Niners 77. Cowboys covered +4 in 63%, and won outright in just about 50%. Cowboys 21 Niners 14
14 points ? That would be an amazing to see
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Dallas worries me a bit on the defensive end , they have been exposed before by teams like the jaguars for example and SF is much better o
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Cowboys / Niners Factors I value in the playoffs (not in order) more than the regular season:1. Multidimensional offenses and defenses. If they take away our run, can we throw? If I cant get to the QB on defense, can I defend in the secondary while blitzing? etc2. QB play - multidimensional3A. Line of scrimmage stats. Win rates. Pressure rates.3B. Ability to get to QB and move him and make him make quick decisions Included in the subtext of the things listed above are coaching and gameplanning, turnovers that result, and field position. This game is not a stats play for me, although the stats support it. It is a minority play for me in that it is my eyes that I am trusting. I went back and watched Brock Purdys throws - all of them - since Dec 4 against the Dolphins. When you get pressure on this guy - he does something consistently - he attempts to make space by usually rolling to his non-throwing hand side - and making a throw across his body. His pressured throws look and feel a whole lot different than his non-pressured throws - and by that I mean worse. This is so easy to identify that I dont even think Mike McCarthy can miss it. The formula for taking down the Niners is stop the run first, then make Purdy make quick decisions. That will lead to mistakes, and turnovers decide football games. So can the Cowboys stop the run and make the Niners one dimensional? A different task than doing it to the Bucs - which they did - but I think it is just more of the same for the Cowboys. Cowboys are 6th in NFL adjusted in last 8 weeks against the run. The Niners are 2nd in rushing attack. This is the key to the game I feel - stop the Niners run and the Cowboys defense will win this game for them. If the Niners can run, and Purdy ends up with 20 passing attempts - the Cowboys are cooked. The Cowboys are #1 in the NFL in pressure rate. Brock Purdy is going to have to prove that he can make quick decisions - at an NFL level of speed - against a team that will be moving him all day long. San Fran intended air yards (how many yards per pass attempt are in the air) are close to the lowest in the league - which is exactly how the Cowboys took down the Bucs - so I like my chances once Purdy is scrambling and trying to make medium to long throws because the Cowboys should be prepared for the dinks and dunks. On the other side - the Cowboys should be able to mix it up running and passing and be balanced. They need to be. If Dak gets in to a throw first mentality - and becomes predictable - that is where there is trouble. I liked what I saw from the misdirection plays against the Bucs - moving Dak around and using his legs to compensate for being a mediocre drop back passer. He is mistake prone and needs to be managed. In the end, field position and turnovers will go a long way to the Cowboys winning. In my simulations - the average YTT (yards to touchdown) of starting Cowboys drives was 58 and the Niners 77. Cowboys covered +4 in 63%, and won outright in just about 50%. Cowboys 21 Niners 14
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Best of luck this weekend Van
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