GL this week, Andy.
I went with NE -6.5(bought hook) and Giants ML +115. Don't really have time to go into detail, so I'm gonna copy and paste something I posted yesterday in another thread. It's a bit of a rant and I was all over the place as the context of the thread was a little different than just capping the game(had something to do with some sportswriters or something), but you get the gist of why I made these wagers.
No idea who either are. One thing I learned about 10 years ago is stay away from any and all media hype and you will be a better gambler because of it. These guys are clueless and especially the former players and coaches you see on ESPN/FOX/CBS. They don't have a clue.
For instance, the big thing this week is how bad Flacco is(something anyone with half a brain knew years ago). It almost makes me want to wash my NE -7 bet and take a shot with the Ravens.
Then the Giant game, I have seen dozens of different sports writers throw out a hundred different scenarios on how this game is gonna break down, yet not one person has thought enough to say, "hmmmm, the 233 inches of rain completely changes everything we know about this game, so let's breakdown how the weather will affect each team and go from there." Another thing I keep hearing is what a great crowd SF is. Last week while watching the Saint game, I mentioned to my buddy a dozen times how it was arguably the WORST crowd I have ever seen for a home NFL playoff game.
My own personal opinion is NE is a good bet over Baltimore as Flacco is a horror show on the road throughout his entire career(with a few small exceptions). I don't particularly object to Ed Reed's statements as there was some decent criticism there and not your typical sore loser Monday morning quarterbacking, BUT I think it just turned the pressure up 10 notches in Flacco's brain which isn't a good thing for HIM(he is not A-Rod or Brady or even Eli). I don't like laying 7, and if this was regular season, I would lean NE but ultimately pass and focus on other games on the card. I think NE will handle Baltimore's run game which leaves the game in Flacco's hands to win which is bad news so I took a shot on NE. I was hoping Baltimore would handle Houston and win big so the line would be a more reasonable 4, but the opposite happened and IMO that line jumped up 3.5/5 points higher than it would have been if Baltimore took that early momentum in Houston and routed like they should have.
For the Giant game, I see it as NY flew to SF two months ago. San Fran played an absolute PERFECT football game, and still needed pretty much a goal line stand hold on. They had less penalties, less turnovers, more sacks, better special teams play(especially with kicking), better RZ efficinecy, Akers was perfect kicking FG's, and even got points on a surprise onsides kick at one point(I believe they got a TD but not sure). All that and they still were a couple yards from OT. On the flip side looking at a different set of stats, the Giants had an edge with TOP, total plays, rushing yards, passing yards, 3rd down conversions, 4th down conversions, first downs, etc etc etc. All while coming off a dream win in New England and flying cross country to a team that was frothing at the mouth to play them. So I think the Giants were a better team then, and after getting hot, the better team now. But like I said, throw everything out because of this rain. That field is gonna be a nightmare. It is gonna take away one of SF's biggest advantages which is their SPEED and viciousness on defense. I think it also hurts the 49ers special teams quite a bit. It is also gonna take away from the Giant's strength which is spreading the ball all over the field and picking on SF's secondary. Also, with all the talk of SF being a smashmouth kind of team, I don;t think they have a particularly good O-line or running game and that was exploited the few times they played a team who was physical enough in the trenches to fight fire with fire(I think Balt sacked Smith 9 or 10 times on Thanksgiving). Also, a chance of no Ted Ginn or a hobbled Ted Ginn is gonna be HUGE.
So yea, I think the Giants are the better squad ESPECIALLY with how good they have been rolling, but throw it all out in this slopfest. The smarter more disciplined team is gonna grind this one out. My money will be on the Gints, but I can't seriously sit here and PUSH that opinion with the weather the way it is. No bias either. I'm from NJ and love rooting the Giants with friends and family, but I took Atl over them a few weeks ago(bad bad wager), and I pounded SF over NO last week, so no hometown BS coming from me.