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Preview of the 2014 Miami Dolphins

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Posted: #26
I really think Lamar Miller has a real nice season. A lot of hype around him for 2+ years, is this the year he breaks out?

https://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000370973/article/joe-philbin-lamar-miller-looks-stronger-than-ever
 
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Posted: #27
So I'm bored, and going on vacation tomorrow so I want to get my props for the season that I am betting on out there. I have 5dimes and bovada accounts so use both to get the best line.

I have really been thinking about the Dolphins lately, following training camp and player progression. I know it has only been 1 preseason game but with the way Tannehill looked (he wasn't touched, and went 6-6 for 62 yards and a TD. Shocking) and his continue to get better day by day at practice. (Today was the best practice by far of the year for Tannehill, as reported by James Walker, ESPN).

All the conclusions that I am drawing are this is the most talented Miami Dolphins roster in my 20 years of being a fan. Until this year, their best roster IMO was 2003 when they had a lot of talent. I truly believe that all of the disappointment Miami Dolphins fans have felt will be rewarded this year. This is the year. 

Miami Dolphins over 7.5 wins (-105, bovada) 12.6u to win 12
Miami Dolphins over 8 wins (+145, 5dimes) 3.4u to win 5

Miami Dolphins to make playoffs (+300, 5dimes) 5u to win 15
Miami Dolphins to win AFC East (+650, bovada) 1.5u to win 9.7

Miami Dolphins to win Superbowl ( 66/1, bovada) 1.5u to win 99
Miami Dolphins to win AFC ( 28/1, Bovada) 1.7u to win 48

Ryan Tannehill most passing yards ( 100/1, Bovada) 1u to win 100
Ryan Tannehill MVP ( 250/1, 5dimes) 0.5u to win 125
Mike Wallace most receiving yards (50/1, 5dimes) 1u to win 50


I am so confident in this Miami Dolphins team that if this season does not go as I expect, I will never create another thread about the Miami Dolphins. In my thread on the Dolphins last year, I said the offensive line is the difference between 8-8 and theres always next year or 11-5 and making noise. That is nothing compared to my prediction that this year is the year that makes Dolphins fan forget about not winning a playoff game in the last 15 years. Can you believe that some people are actually predicting this team to be 7th-5th WORST team in the NFL? (I literally just facepalmed that previous sentence before I hit submit.)
 
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Posted: #28

 

Thanks for putting this up...

I still think there is something missing with Tanerhill. Can't quite put my finger on it or find an old QB he reminds me off... Marybe Burt Jones, although he had touch..

Tannerhill is great at throwing the hard 12 yard pass, scrambling, 2nd receiver and sometimes third... Yes, weak line last year, but he tends to bring it on himself (a little), we'll see more this year... And those 2 losses at the end of the year... He should have won at least one of them...

Will he grow enough into the QB to be the ultimate leader ? Call his own plays, received as a top QB in the league ?

 I just never see him able to throw long with touch, read a D (really well) or have the (extreme drive to win). I see him at 90 - 95% on those intangables... That puts him a tad below Rothlesburger, Flacco, Manning.E... Affraid he may end up like Andy Dalton. A good NFL starter that will never win a playoff game...

Sad to put it like that because this makes him one of the top 15 NFL QBs in the WORLD and unless you are top 7, you need much help... It doesn't mean he will never win a SB... Just means he won't be the one to win it... Makes me think of ELI, what a lucky guy, 2 of the top ten best catches made in the past ten years and they are both made for him on a super bowl... Yet, people talk about him like a great QB...

Lucky and good is more like it...

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Pipe-Light:

 

Thanks for putting this up...

I still think there is something missing with Tanerhill. Can't quite put my finger on it or find an old QB he reminds me off... Marybe Burt Jones, although he had touch..

Tannerhill is great at throwing the hard 12 yard pass, scrambling, 2nd receiver and sometimes third... Yes, weak line last year, but he tends to bring it on himself (a little), we'll see more this year... And those 2 losses at the end of the year... He should have won at least one of them...

Will he grow enough into the QB to be the ultimate leader ? Call his own plays, received as a top QB in the league ?

 I just never see him able to throw long with touch, read a D (really well) or have the (extreme drive to win). I see him at 90 - 95% on those intangables... That puts him a tad below Rothlesburger, Flacco, Manning.E... Affraid he may end up like Andy Dalton. A good NFL starter that will never win a playoff game...

Sad to put it like that because this makes him one of the top 15 NFL QBs in the WORLD and unless you are top 7, you need much help... It doesn't mean he will never win a SB... Just means he won't be the one to win it... Makes me think of ELI, what a lucky guy, 2 of the top ten best catches made in the past ten years and they are both made for him on a super bowl... Yet, people talk about him like a great QB...

Lucky and good is more like it...


Some fair points.

Ryan Tannehill has a lot of questions to answer this year, and I'm very confident that he will do that. IMO if you look at the Tannehill picture as a whole, you have a can't miss. You take a strong armed, athletic QB with great potential. Add his progression from years 1 to 2 (12 Tds, 3300 yards to 24 TDs, 3900 yards.) The weapons he has around him, the retooled offensive line and the addition of Lazor's offense. That's a lot of positive things. Now whats the biggest negative? He holds on to the ball too much sometimes and he was alittle gun-shy. Now how much of that was based on being a second year QB and having the worst offensive line in the NFL, and zero run game?


I mean I would sign up for that quarterback real quick if I was a fan of a different NFL team. I take what I said above and then add the things I've personally seen him do. Making incredible throws in tight windows, and breaking off 30+ yard runs.


'm honestly a little surprised Tannehill is not getting more hype. My one friend who has done nothing but rip on the Fins and their quarterback for the last 10 years actually asked me why the hell I don't have a Tannehill jersey. "He's the man." he said
 
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Posted: #30

Nice to see a fellow Dolphins fan.

With the stats Tannehill put up last season with a terrible o-line I think he should shine this season if the o-line keeps him upright. Both he and Wallace should click a little better this season. Lazor has a much better idea of how to utilize Wallace than Sherman  ever did. 

I also feel that Jarvis Landry will be a sleeper this season.

Go Dolphins! 

 
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Posted: #31
I kind of like Dolphins +4.5 week one and maybe the money line at +180 what you think Earthquake?
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by kevmode:

I kind of like Dolphins +4.5 week one and maybe the money line at +180 what you think Earthquake?


That's a good question. It is going to be a really tough game week 1. Especially losing Reshad Jones who was going to be covering Gronk most of the game. He will now be covered by jimmy Wilson who moves to safety for the first four games. Everyone on the planet seems to like Wilson but for some reason I don't. That will be a very tough matchup for him and is the main reason Miami might lose week 1.

I expect it to be a really tight game week 1, and see no value in taking the Patriots with the points. I definitely think if the Dolphins lose it will be by 2 or 3. I'm still unsure of what my week 1 bets will be on the Dolphins, but I do know I will be betting on Ryan Tannehill over rushing yards ( he will be running a lot this year) and Dolphins TT over 20ish..This is not the same Dolphins offense that averages 20-23 points a game. Their new scheme offensive should surprise the hell out of the Pats, but with Wilson on Gronk, the Pats secondary and Tom Brady it will be a hard fought game.

However, I would not be surprised if Miami came out and throttled the pats the same way they did with the Wildcat. I just don't know how you can cover all of Miami's weapons with the new offense and there will be very little film of it except for the vanilla plays they run in the preseason.

I'll go with what I said week 15 last year when they played the Pats. Very tough game that will come down to the last few plays and whoever has the ball last could win...and that might just be Tannehill. 27-24 game, either way. I will be elaborating more on this game closer to week 1.
 
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Posted: #33

I' m truly sorry to disagree with you on Ryan Tannehill. Yes he is improving but the stats from last year show that he has a ways to go to before he compares to playoff QBs; All these stats are come from ColdHardFootballFacts.

Real Passing Yards Per Attempt

1 DEN

2 SD

3 PHI

4 NO

5 CHI

6 SEA

7 GB

8 DET

9 CIN

10 SF

28 MIAM!

Look how many of the top 10 made the playoffs

REAL QB RATING

1 DEN

2 NO

3 SD

4 PHI

5  SEA

6 CHI

7 DAL

8 CAR

9 SF

10 IND

11 CIN

12 KC

13 GB

23 MIA

How many of the top 13 went to the playoffs

REAL QB RATING DIFFERENTIAL

1 SEA

2 DEN

3 NO

4 CAR

5 CIN

6 PHI

7 PHI

8  SF

9 KC

10 CHI

11 IND

12 SD

18  MIAMI

Tannehill has to either attempt longer passes (which depends on who is calling the plays) or complete 65%  of his shorter passes  instead of 60% which depends on Mr, Tannehill..If not you won't make the playoffs

 

t

 
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Posted: #34
How many of those teams you listed above had a second year QB?

How many of those teams you listed above had worst o-line in the league?

How many of those teams you listed above had an offensive coordinator that 100% was being fired in the off season?


A lot of stats are ambiguous, and a lot of stats are affected by offensive line 
 
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Posted: #35
I am not one for betting preseason, but tomorrows game provides a lot of value. Won't be around tomorrow so just getting this out.

Ryan Tannehill will be playing 3 drives tomorrow, which means almost if not all of the first half. Mike Wallace is also back in action tomorrow. Which is just an absolute nightmare for defenses against this offense, especially with very little film.

Miami Dolphins +1 (FH) is a very solid play. I'm not betting big, but this situation reminds me of why some people say "preseason is easier than regaular season because you know how long guys are playing."

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

How many of those teams you listed above had a second year QB?

How many of those teams you listed above had worst o-line in the league?

How many of those teams you listed above had an offensive coordinator that 100% was being fired in the off season?


A lot of stats are ambiguous, and a lot of stats are affected by offensive line 

You may be right. A good o-line, and a good offensive coach, may be just what he needs. I am not down on Miami. I will watch Tannehill very closely this year. I want him to succeed and beat the Pats. Good luck my friend.  

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by bleedgreengold:

You may be right. A good o-line, and a good offensive coach, may be just what he needs. I am not down on Miami. I will watch Tannehill very closely this year. I want him to succeed and beat the Pats. Good luck my friend.  


I'm not just hyping Tannehill because he is the Dolphins quarterback. I have seen 13 quarterbacks since Dan Marino retired. The only ones I liked were Fiedler, Pennington, Henne and Culepepper (until his 1st game). Of those 3, none come close to what Tannehill has to offer. The only people who seem to doubt him are those who don't know him because trust me, the coaching staff LOVES him.

Goodluck to you. 
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

 

Miami Dolphins +1 (FH) is a very solid play. I'm not betting big, but this situation reminds me of why some people say "preseason is easier than regaular season because you know how long guys are playing."


Sometimes better to be lucky than good. Weird game, very weird. Tannehill continues to impress, a lot of questions still to answer for this team, but I'm growing more excited every day.

Shout out to Rishard Matthews. He continues to do nothing but make plays. He will be their 5th or 6th receiver and he would make every single roster in the NFL. He can straight up play. 
 
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Posted: #39
Have always appreciated your take on the Phins
keep it up sir
Gotta go pee!
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:

Agree with most. Disagree on Moreno. There will be a rotation with Knowshown getting the most snaps. Miami's qb protection was so bad last year that they couldn't fix it with just improving the o-line. This is a big reason he was brought in. Same with drafting Lynch. After 2 years I just don't think Miller is anything more than a 3rd down back. 

A little harsh on Carrol. His last year was pretty solid. Will Davis will have to prove me wrong, because I think he will get abused on Sunday's. The loss of Soliai is going to hurt. Wheeler and Ellerbe were awful last season and now their plug is gone. Here is to hoping Misi excels as a mike. 

I'm also expecting big things out of Tannehill. Lots of room for growth. Part of him maturing is better manipulation of the pocket. With any kind of improvement along the offensive line we should see a large step up this year. The presnap reads, ball placement, eye manipulation are all there. Like the over 8 this year. 



Moreno needs to start. It's night and day between him and Miller. The vision, pass catching, run blocking are all vastly better. A very underrated signing. 

Tannehill looking much more comfortable this preseason. I know in this offense they are wanting him to get the ball out quickly, but I would like to see him go through an extra progression before the checkdown. Lazor's presence over Sherman is huge. This is what a real oc looks like. Love how they attack the defense on multiple levels. Tannehills should thrive and have a very good year. 

Oline is looking better, but really could it get any worse. Pouncy needs to hurry back fast. Neither of the project starting guards are any good and at least Pouncy can help mask some of their deficiencies as a interior move athlete. James is looking like a great pick and is ready to start now. At this point his pass pro is much better than his run blocking. 

Dion Jordan has really been mismanaged by the coaching staff. Loved his potential last year but don't see the same potential a year later.  He put on too much weight in the offseason and isn't carrying it well. There were things that he was able to do last year that he can't just do this year athletically. It's glaring when see him break off the line to cover a tight end. Hopefully he uses the 4 weeks to drop a few lbs. 


 
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Posted: #41
Yes I agree that Moreno will be used, and have a much more productive season than Miller. I'm growing impatient with Miller pretty quickly.

Pouncey is way ahead in his rehab schedule and there is a very small chance he is back by week 2. I would be very surprised if he is not back after their week 5 bye. 

I really think if Gronk does not play week 1, Miami has more than a 50% chance to win that game. If they start the season out with a win over the Patriots, more people will wake up on them 
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by idle_havoc:

Have always appreciated your take on the Phins
keep it up sir


Bovada just released their player props, and there are some I like so much for the Dolphins that I'm more worried about the website being around in January than I am about winning the bets. Before I go on, I realize it REALLY looks like I'm being a homer with these bets, but with them all being -115 I think there is EXTREME value with these lines.



Ryan Tannehill over 23.5 passing TDs (-115) 20u to win 17.3
Ryan Tannehill over 3900 passing yards (-115) 10u to win 8.7

Charles Clay over 625 receiving yards (-115) 10u to win 8.7
Charles Clay over 5 TDs (-115) 10u to win 8.7

Mike Wallace over 950 receiving yards (-115) 7u to win 6


Beaten to death what I think about Tannehill, but he had 24 TDs and 3,913 yards last year. He now has a better offensive line, a better offensive coordinator, and better receivers...Hmm, I wonder if his numbers are going to up based on that alone. Not to mention his progression from year 1 to 2. Not rocket science to know he is going to continue to progress. I'm just mad they didn't have a prop for his rushing yards. Its no secret they are going to run with him more. (I read something recently on NFL.com that another NFL offensive coordinator was baffled at why Tannehill is not used more in his run game.) He definitely will this year because most of their offensive runs are read options....Did I mention he had the worst offensive line and offensive coordinator in the league last year?

Charles Clay is an absolute beast. Ranked 89th in NFL by other players. There were only 3 or 4 tight ends ranked above him on the list. He is also Tannehill's #1 target, ESPECIALLY in the redzone. His numbers should be close to 875 yards, 8 TDs. If you are ever really bored one day, you should look at his highlight reel. Its mind blowing.

Mike Wallace had an absolutely mediocre year last year. Tannehill was 6-36 on deep balls to Wallace and they just lacked chemistry. He still had 930 yards and 5 TDs. I will definitely roll the dice that he has a better year than last year simply because of a better offensive coordinator and second year with his QB. All he needs to do is have a slightly better or basically identical year as last year to win the bet.

The only two outrageous statements I've made about the Dolphins on here is that betting the dolphins over 6.5 was free money last year. (what they opened up at Cantor Gaming) I also "almost guaranteed" that teasing Miami upto 7.5 or 10.5 was safe. (The line was -1, week 13 @ the Jets.) Miami won 23-3. I'm not even going to make a ridiculous statement now, I'm just going to say those lines are mind boggling to me. Dan Marino must have banged the girlfriend of whoever put those lines up.

My thoughts/bets will be posted soon on the week 1 game (if you care). A few things still up in the air injury wise. Goodluck everyone. 


 
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Posted: #43
Barring injury, those Tannehill props look very winnable.
 
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Posted: #44
All those look good. For Tannehill 4000 yds and 30td has to be the bar. Do they have a line on Moreno?
 
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Posted: #45
@Smarter than you: Yes, injuries could kill everything very quickly, but Tannehill has started 32 of 32 games since becoming the starter. So he certainly isn't injury prone.

@JerryWrasse: No, those were the only props available. I believe they had one for Brent Grimes over/under 3 interceptions.
 
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Posted: #46
Tough opening game, I can't remember the last time New England lost an opening game. Must have been before 2005
 
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Posted: #47
So at the beginning of the year, I graded Miami's team on how good I thought they were. Bleacher report just released a grade on Miami's final 53 man roster. Lets see how they match up.

Quarterback
my rating: B
BR: B+

Runningback
my rating: B
BR: B

Wide receiver
my rating: B
BR: A-

Tight end
my rating: B+
BR: B

Oline
my rating: C+
BR: C

Dline
my rating: A
BR: A+

Linebackers:
my rating: C-
BR: C-

Secondary:
My rating: B
BR: C

Speacial teams:
my rating: B+
BR: B


 
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Posted: #48
I truly do appreciate your thoughts on the 'phins.  I think you're about as knowledgeable as they get on here for that team no doubt.  Do I agree and disagree with some of the statements, of course.  I think Miami is underrated this year for sure averaging 23rd on power rankings.

Tannehill is a good quarterback, unlikely to ever be elite in my opinion.  The offensive line is improved, though not amazing still.

I truly wish you the best of luck, but to think you will be a vastly improved Patriots team in week 1 (or even have a 50% chance of doing so), is definitely a homer statement.  To use your own bleacher report rankings (Pat rankings are in brackets beside each one)


Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

So at the beginning of the year, I graded Miami's team on how good I thought they were. Bleacher report just released a grade on Miami's final 53 man roster. Lets see how they match up.

Quarterback
my rating: B
BR: B+    (PATS: A+)

Runningback
my rating: B
BR: B     (PATS B+)

Wide receiver
my rating: B
BR: A-     (PATS A-)

Tight end
my rating: B+
BR: B    (PATS A-, they actually included this as WRs.  If Gronk stays healthy, we all know it's an A+, and probably somewhere in the B- or C+ range with Tim Wright)

Oline
my rating: C+
BR: C     (PATS C)

Dline
my rating: A
BR: A+     (PATS B-)

Linebackers:
my rating: C-
BR: C-     (PATS A)

Secondary:
My rating: B
BR: C    (PATS B+)

Speacial teams:
my rating: B+
BR: B    (PATS A)



By those stats, you're expecting to win the game with Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno (for the record, I think they're better as a tandem than Vereen and Ridley, but whatever).

Using last years game (without Gronk and with Amendola as their #2 receiver) isn't comparable in my opinion.  

Love your analysis all in all.  It's definitely biased, but despite the bias you actually manage to be informative and insightful. 

Best of luck this year! 
 
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Posted: #49
But to think you will beat*  I wish you could edit posts on here haha.

I also naturally didn't mean to quote the first couple of paragraphs.  Go Wake! 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Too many offensive line questions - also the fact that they're under a new offense.  Tannehill is good, no question, but the fact that he has to constantly deal with pressure, lack of a run game, and a porous defense in a tough division means they're going to underwhelm in games that count.  Against poor teams, they'll look decent.
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