Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by Jimmus:
By those stats, you're expecting to win the game with Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno (for the record, I think they're better as a tandem than Vereen and Ridley, but whatever).
Using last years game (without Gronk and with Amendola as their #2 receiver) isn't comparable in my opinion.
Love your analysis all in all. It's definitely biased, but despite the bias you actually manage to be informative and insightful.
Best of luck this year! 
Gronk is playing, so IMO if this game was played 10 times, Miami would win about 4.3 times out of 10.
Last year in New England week 8. Gronk and Edelman played, and Miami held a 17-3 at halftime. Dimitri Patterson got injured right around halftime, and the Pats went on to abuse Nolan Carroll and ended up winning 27-17. I truly believe that if Patterson did not get hurt, Miami wins that game. Patterson was a beast last year when healthy. He had like 3 interceptions in 4-5 games, but he could never ever stay on the field.
Miami always plays the Pats tough, and its true that their secondary might be the best Miami faces all year. However, Miami has 4 'dangerous' weapons in the receiving core (including Clay) and 2 really good possession receivers. I don't care how good your Secondary is, in todays NFL it is damn near impossible to lock down 6 good pass catchers.
Week 1 is definitely the hardest week to cap I feel like because of all the uncertainty. However I definitely see this game going down to the wire.
Also a quick note, you mention that Gronk and Amendola didn't play in Miami's week 14 win last year. Well, Miami was starting a guy at the nickel corner (Michael Thomas) who was on their team less than 10 days, and was one of the last guys to make the team this year. Both teams had injuries they needed to overcome.
Goodluck this season.
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