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WEEK 8 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by slowphenomenon:

win seeker, i don't deny that smart money moved this in the direction of tampa, but i can't back a squad that allows 399 yards a game, defense is horrendous

I thought sharps caught wind of a key vikings player that will ve out.
 
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Posted: #127
nope simply a steam move 
 
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Posted: #128
Looks like a bunch of hot air to me.  
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by sccards05:

been looking at your posts for a couple of days now and looking at your breakdown sheets as well.  is there anyway you could explain how you come up with your advantage based off of rpi, i understand how you come up with the actual rpi but dont understand how you come up with the advantage here.  is positive or negative good and how do you come up with the actual values there? i love the info and am always trying to find statistical based information like youre putting out there.  was going to try to do something similar with maybe an individual conference for ncaa and want all the info i can get. Thanks

Great questions, I haven't forgot about this question, I'll post another sample calculation for the RPI advantage later tonight when I'm watching the game.

Positive numbers are better for score, yards per play, yards per pass, yards per rush.  A positive number means you're gaining more yards per XXXX than your opponent in that category.

The only time a negative number is good in RPI is under yards per point.  You want an efficient offense in the NFL, so the fewer yards it takes to score every point the better.  A negative differential means your team is more efficient at scoring than your opponent.
 
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Posted: #130

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Just like I did with Tampa Bay last week, I'll tease the Falcons off the ugly opening number of +2 and bump them past the key numbers of 3,4,7,8 while I still can.  I expect this game to close at PK.  While the opening price of +8 is still good on the Bears, I'll spend the other half of this teaser bringing the Bears back the other way across 8,7,4,3 down to what is essentially a pick'em spread.  My numbers are showing 13 points of value for the Falcons and 11.5 points of value for the Bears at these adjusted numbers.. hard to pass up value like that.

why are key numbers 3,4,7,8?  Does that mean I don't want my lines to fall on them?  Thanks for all your help

 

 
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Posted: #131
si1ly,

I don't have much time to post my questions regarding your breakdown statistical modeling but I do have the time to thank you for your willingness to share, educate, and encourage aspiring cappers such as myself. Your record is impressive (pardon the understatement), your online presence is a well-respected one, and I cannot express how fortunate I am to have found you here on covers. You rock! I'll post my questions after the dust settles following tonight's TNF matchup.
(Vikings minus the pts and under are my plays)

 
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Posted: #132
appreciated as always.


 
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Posted: #133
For some reason the sheets arent coming up anymore, was working yesterday, anyone else having a problem with this?
 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by jerzeyboy56:

For some reason the sheets arent coming up anymore, was working yesterday, anyone else having a problem with this?

Here's a direct link to the Week 8 folder:

 
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Posted: #135
do you think the vikes win today silly?
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:

do you think the vikes win today silly?

They stand a 65% chance to win tonight Davopnz.
 
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Posted: #137
viked covers 6.5? s1ly?
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Here's a direct link to the Week 8 folder:


went to this link and couldn't see anything, can let me know your opinions on CAR@CHI? Thank you!
 
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Posted: #139
Hey si1ly,

What do you think about these stats?
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
*The Buccaneers have won the last five meetings between the teams.

with your stat sheet, I'm leaning Bucs ML. I got it at when Vik were at -6.5. I got these plays this week:

 NCAA /Football  [#108]  Cincinnati/Louisville Un 52½ -110  [#178]  Penn State pk -110  [#103]  Tampa Bay Buccaneers +245 NFL /Football
  [#106]  Clemson/Wake Forest Ov 59 -110
  [#105]  Clemson -11½ -110
  [#103]  Tampa Bay Buccaneers +245


 
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Posted: #140
God... formatting issues:

2 team:

4 team:
Tampa ML +245


 
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Posted: #141
nice info GL si1ly
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by pcz:

God... formatting issues:

2 team:

4 team:
Tampa ML +245




And I give up.
 
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Posted: #143
why does it matter that tampa won the last 5? the vikes are one of the better teams in the league right now. teams change
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by WAIWAI:

viked covers 6.5? s1ly?


Will you need a written guarantee from Silly in case you lose the game WaWa?baby

Don't you understand that he has calculated the game to be in the percentage favoring the Vikings. If he could predict the answer to your question, he would be the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Take a chance on your own decision.....it will feel better when the game is over.
 
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Posted: #145
ugh.. im on page 2 
 
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Posted: #146
i should ask is vikes has bettrr chance to cover?
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by WAIWAI:

i should ask is vikes has bettrr chance to cover?


That's a much better question..and according to silly...YES...is the answer.

GL to you tonight
 
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Posted: #148
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

ugh.. im on page 2 

Better catch up, if this thread goes anything like last week it'll be at 15 pages by Sunday night.

 
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Posted: #149
I think oddsmakers set a very fair line tonight.  Both teams are pretty similar, but the Vikings are a bit better all around.  If this game was played on a neutral field on normal rest I think a fair line would probably be Vikings -1.  But considering how good they play at home and how difficult it is to travel any distance on a short week I think -4, or -5 becomes a more appropriate adjustment for home field advantage.  This makes a fair line right around -6 - exactly what the oddsmakers are giving us tonight.  As for the total, if you run the calculation I demonstrated in last weeks thread, you get 42.3 or something of that nature.  My other models agreed with this number and it's dead on with the Vegas total.  Who do I think has the better chance of covering a -6 spread?  I think it's 50/50.  Do I think the game goes over or under 42?  I think it's 50/50.  I'm not willing to pay 10 cents on the dollar to get 50/50 odds so consider my old ass in the stands tonight.  Enjoy the game everyone.

 
 
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Posted: #150
Here's a direct link to the Week 8 folder:

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit?docId=0B8gd-be68XCvX0tmVFdVU2dDcHc



Once i click on a game the actual sheet doesnt come up? not sure why it was perfectly fine yesterday
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