I don't know how many college football guys are lingering around today, but that injury to Lattimore might be the worst knee injury I've seen since Mcgahee.
I don't know how many college football guys are lingering around today, but that injury to Lattimore might be the worst knee injury I've seen since Mcgahee.
I just realized that the Advantage (ADV) calculation under the Net Yards per Attempt heading in the Relative Performance Index is inaccurate on all the sheets. This error did not have any affect on the models - simply a transcription error in my coding. I've fixed the mistake for next weeks sheets. Sorry for the confusion.
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I just realized that the Advantage (ADV) calculation under the Net Yards per Attempt heading in the Relative Performance Index is inaccurate on all the sheets. This error did not have any affect on the models - simply a transcription error in my coding. I've fixed the mistake for next weeks sheets. Sorry for the confusion.
Have looked at your sheets for the last 2 weeks and can't believe the time and effort that you have put in to make these available to the viewers on covers. Thank you so much for everything.
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si1ly,
Have looked at your sheets for the last 2 weeks and can't believe the time and effort that you have put in to make these available to the viewers on covers. Thank you so much for everything.
Si1ly I recall you saying on your mlb sheets that they favor the under. Is this the same for your nfl??
No, it's just an unfortunate by-product of computing baseball scores using 'idealized' models. The game is played imperfectly, but mathematics is absolute. In Baseball, this translates to the possibility of higher scores. (Generally errors and other 'mistakes' in professional baseball lead to more base runners and consequently, more runs).
My football models are much less 'perfect', so I don't run into this issue as much. I've built into these models a certain level of slop to account for the unpredictability of turnovers and other unaccountable in-game circumstances.
Generally speaking, I think totals are more volatile than sides when it comes to their correlation to pre-game data. I don't have anything statistical to back this up, just what I've sensed over time.
The advantage to running sheets on every game for the three majors means I always have a complete picture of the relationship between data to reality. Handicapping every game at least superficially by virtue of the breakdown sheets gives me a huge edge in understanding the big picture - something gamblers often lose sight of during a season.
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Quote Originally Posted by Xcountry:
Si1ly I recall you saying on your mlb sheets that they favor the under. Is this the same for your nfl??
No, it's just an unfortunate by-product of computing baseball scores using 'idealized' models. The game is played imperfectly, but mathematics is absolute. In Baseball, this translates to the possibility of higher scores. (Generally errors and other 'mistakes' in professional baseball lead to more base runners and consequently, more runs).
My football models are much less 'perfect', so I don't run into this issue as much. I've built into these models a certain level of slop to account for the unpredictability of turnovers and other unaccountable in-game circumstances.
Generally speaking, I think totals are more volatile than sides when it comes to their correlation to pre-game data. I don't have anything statistical to back this up, just what I've sensed over time.
The advantage to running sheets on every game for the three majors means I always have a complete picture of the relationship between data to reality. Handicapping every game at least superficially by virtue of the breakdown sheets gives me a huge edge in understanding the big picture - something gamblers often lose sight of during a season.
Indy projected to be 5 points better on a neutral field. How much is Tennessee's home field worth? 3 point standard adjustment would imply Indy should by -2 here. Of course, it's not this simple, this is only one method of projecting the score. I think Indy is a bit undervalued, but I'm not ready to believe they should be laying any sort of road chalk yet - regardless of what the numbers say. Their 30th ranked run defense and 30th ranked passing defense certainly doesn't help their cause. By the way, what happened last week when Tennessee played an equally awful defense? The above mentioned score prediction implies a total landing on 54. Vegas is giving us 47. Where did that touchdown go? One more thing to consider. Indy allows opponents to rush for 0.8 yards per carry more than they average on the season. If this holds true tomorrow, Chris Johnson will be averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Give him 25 touches and he'll look like CJ2K again. If you take Indy, you'll be betting against that.
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Here's what I got using the standard method:
INDOFF31.27
TENDEF27.86
IND AVG = 29.6
TENOFF24.09
INDDEF25.17
TEN AVG = 24.6
Indy projected to be 5 points better on a neutral field. How much is Tennessee's home field worth? 3 point standard adjustment would imply Indy should by -2 here. Of course, it's not this simple, this is only one method of projecting the score. I think Indy is a bit undervalued, but I'm not ready to believe they should be laying any sort of road chalk yet - regardless of what the numbers say. Their 30th ranked run defense and 30th ranked passing defense certainly doesn't help their cause. By the way, what happened last week when Tennessee played an equally awful defense? The above mentioned score prediction implies a total landing on 54. Vegas is giving us 47. Where did that touchdown go? One more thing to consider. Indy allows opponents to rush for 0.8 yards per carry more than they average on the season. If this holds true tomorrow, Chris Johnson will be averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Give him 25 touches and he'll look like CJ2K again. If you take Indy, you'll be betting against that.
Somebody convince me not to play Green Bay -14.5? I don't think oddsmakers could have set this number high enough to keep me away. My numbers were showing GB -17 BEFORE MJD's injury. The Jaguars have the worst offense in the NFL. What could they possibly do in Green Bay against a Packer team that's chasing the Bears?
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Somebody convince me not to play Green Bay -14.5? I don't think oddsmakers could have set this number high enough to keep me away. My numbers were showing GB -17 BEFORE MJD's injury. The Jaguars have the worst offense in the NFL. What could they possibly do in Green Bay against a Packer team that's chasing the Bears?
silly im a bit wary about the falcons...that line seems like a real public sucker bet, i havent been too impressed by their last few games, got out of jail against carolina and oakland
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i like green bay.
silly im a bit wary about the falcons...that line seems like a real public sucker bet, i havent been too impressed by their last few games, got out of jail against carolina and oakland
Well Si1ly in the Hilton contest of the top 10 players with 5 picks each there are 7 picks for Car. 4 for Jac. 4 for Phi. and 4 for KC if I've figured right. Now you have an excuse not to bet GB. BOL
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Well Si1ly in the Hilton contest of the top 10 players with 5 picks each there are 7 picks for Car. 4 for Jac. 4 for Phi. and 4 for KC if I've figured right. Now you have an excuse not to bet GB. BOL
silly im a bit wary about the falcons...that line seems like a real public sucker bet, i havent been too impressed by their last few games, got out of jail against carolina and oakland
Falcons at the #29th easiest schedule doesn't rest easy with me either.
But let's look at it this way. I just ran Atlanta through the model against the top 5 teams in my power rankings (the Eagles are #21). They were almost a touchdown underdogs against Chicago, San Fran and Houston. They were 3.5 point dogs against Green Bay and Denver. So while it's clear to me that the Falcons are not a top 5 team in the NFL, if they would be about a 3 point underdog on the road against Green Bay.. how in the hell can they be a 2.5 point underdog on the road against Philadelphia?! Green Bay a half a point better than Philadelphia? That's absurd. The plain and simple fact is oddsmakers gave Atlanta line value because of Andy Reid's record SU and ATS following a bye week and because there are more Philadelphia fans in the market than there are Atlanta fans. I'm a value investor, and this value is indisputable. However, the reason why I'm not jumping on board with Atlanta catching 2.5 points is twofold. One, 2.5 is an ugly underdog number, but the best teaser number in the business. A 6 or 6.5 point tease can bring a 2 point dog across every key number sub 10. Two, the Falcons have a shit run defense. Andy Reid certainly knows this and if they can establish a run game it will get the ball out of Vick's hands and minimize their risk to turnovers. I don't like to bet against a home team that will be able to run the ball successfully. Regardless of the opponent, this can pose real problems. I do think this is a field goal game either way so holding 8.5 on Atlanta puts me in a high probability situation. This week has a ton of terrific teaser teams: Washington, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, Chicago, New England, Seattle, Cleveland. All of these teams can cross several key numbers using a 6.5 or 6 point tease. Any combination of the above teams looks extremely valuable on paper.
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Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:
i like green bay.
silly im a bit wary about the falcons...that line seems like a real public sucker bet, i havent been too impressed by their last few games, got out of jail against carolina and oakland
Falcons at the #29th easiest schedule doesn't rest easy with me either.
But let's look at it this way. I just ran Atlanta through the model against the top 5 teams in my power rankings (the Eagles are #21). They were almost a touchdown underdogs against Chicago, San Fran and Houston. They were 3.5 point dogs against Green Bay and Denver. So while it's clear to me that the Falcons are not a top 5 team in the NFL, if they would be about a 3 point underdog on the road against Green Bay.. how in the hell can they be a 2.5 point underdog on the road against Philadelphia?! Green Bay a half a point better than Philadelphia? That's absurd. The plain and simple fact is oddsmakers gave Atlanta line value because of Andy Reid's record SU and ATS following a bye week and because there are more Philadelphia fans in the market than there are Atlanta fans. I'm a value investor, and this value is indisputable. However, the reason why I'm not jumping on board with Atlanta catching 2.5 points is twofold. One, 2.5 is an ugly underdog number, but the best teaser number in the business. A 6 or 6.5 point tease can bring a 2 point dog across every key number sub 10. Two, the Falcons have a shit run defense. Andy Reid certainly knows this and if they can establish a run game it will get the ball out of Vick's hands and minimize their risk to turnovers. I don't like to bet against a home team that will be able to run the ball successfully. Regardless of the opponent, this can pose real problems. I do think this is a field goal game either way so holding 8.5 on Atlanta puts me in a high probability situation. This week has a ton of terrific teaser teams: Washington, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, Chicago, New England, Seattle, Cleveland. All of these teams can cross several key numbers using a 6.5 or 6 point tease. Any combination of the above teams looks extremely valuable on paper.
Somebody convince me not to play Green Bay -14.5? I don't think oddsmakers could have set this number high enough to keep me away. My numbers were showing GB -17 BEFORE MJD's injury. The Jaguars have the worst offense in the NFL. What could they possibly do in Green Bay against a Packer team that's chasing the Bears?
I think it might be due to injuries: https://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/840/charles-woodson https://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6268/sam-shields
If Henne's in after Gabbert gets hurt. You can count me GB -pts. Henne looks horrible--even against the Raiders pass D.
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
Somebody convince me not to play Green Bay -14.5? I don't think oddsmakers could have set this number high enough to keep me away. My numbers were showing GB -17 BEFORE MJD's injury. The Jaguars have the worst offense in the NFL. What could they possibly do in Green Bay against a Packer team that's chasing the Bears?
I think it might be due to injuries: https://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/840/charles-woodson https://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6268/sam-shields
If Henne's in after Gabbert gets hurt. You can count me GB -pts. Henne looks horrible--even against the Raiders pass D.
I feel like MIA ML and Indy ML has some good value there. I think it's dependent on the injury report for the colts.
Freeney and Mathis seems to be probable and questionable. That's enough for me to chase the ML. It'd be even better Locker comes back but I doubt the Titans would change that with their win streak.
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I feel like MIA ML and Indy ML has some good value there. I think it's dependent on the injury report for the colts.
Freeney and Mathis seems to be probable and questionable. That's enough for me to chase the ML. It'd be even better Locker comes back but I doubt the Titans would change that with their win streak.
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