Yes, that is better....I would need another query that agrees with that for me to play a team with a 12 game sample, however there's always exceptions to every rule.
Your second query is a pretty powerful angle.....you can make the sample size much bigger by going back further in time, but 26 game sample size is enough for me to make a play.....I've mentioned this angle in this thread and going back since 1989 it has a long track record of success.....if you add another parameter that our play-on team has a winning record this moves to 43-15 ATS since 1989.........
tA(W)>.5 and p:ADW and HD and op:HFW
In the end, after we have pretty good queries that indicate teams in strong situations, then we have to see how it fits with feeling about the game.
I normally would play the Giants, but I don't like to go against Lamar Jackson on the road, so I will pass, but that is not to say that you should.
As I've said, everyone has a differing perception of reality, so, one can put the exact same indicators out to 1000 people and they will all pick different teams to bet on....and it is what makes a market on a game.
Does this one help in backing NYG?
p:ADW and HD and op:HFW and season >2017 (26-13) on NYG
Sorry disregard
Yes, that is valid though teams with playoff loss revenge has historically done well...don't know how to query that though.
Your Giants query is 16-2 ATS in October games and 33-7 ATS if you exclude December games.....they've won straight up 27 out of 40 times with an average line of +4.1.
tA(W)>.5 and p:ADW and HD and op:HFW and 8<month<12
Teams that lost previous matchup by 35+
56-36 ATS (60.87%)
Hmm steelers would fit this. Brady not covering 3 straight is scary tho imo, imagine it hasn't happened very often. I think the personal issues are affecting him a ton he's not nearly as focused, could they get a lead and just coast again this week?!
@DogbiteWilliams
"This data was collected by marking any teams who won or lost by a point differential over 28 points and tracking those teams’ following matchups performance. If a team went into a bye week, spread data from their following matchup was used."
Ok I was able to find this so it sounds like it is just whoever they play following week. Not specifically the team they play in wk6. The 28 pt losing teams record ats was 155-134 following wk 53.63%
1) Redskins/Commies pik..........winner
2) Jaguars +1...............loser, Jaguars snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
3) Jets +7'...............winner
4) Patriots +3..........winner
5) Jags/Colts UNDER 42'..........loser
6) Cowboys/Eagles UNDER 42
7) Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45'
8) Bengals -2', -120..........winner, Bengals snatch victory from the jaws of defeat......so you wanna be an NFL bettor, eh?.....lol
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